72 Suburbs in Search of a City: Anthony Davis to Los Angeles Lakers

Captaincoop

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Other than having age 26 LeBron instead of age 35 LeBron, sure!

(Also disagree with that team being ahead of this Lakers' team otherwise, but we'll have to wait and see what Pelinka does here).
Lebron put up 27/8/8 last year, it's not like we're talking about 1987 Artis Gilmore here.

His age and injury risk are the biggest risks for the Lakers. If he hits a cliff, they will fail. But the cliff would be coming out of nowhere considering the numbers he's still putting up.
 

BaseballJones

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Lebron put up 27/8/8 last year, it's not like we're talking about 1987 Artis Gilmore here.

His age and injury risk are the biggest risks for the Lakers. If he hits a cliff, they will fail. But the cliff would be coming out of nowhere considering the numbers he's still putting up.
I don’t expect anything from LeBron next year but continued greatness. He’s a machine of basketball excellence.
 

Devizier

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As it stands the teams with space for a max or near-max player are:

Nets, Knicks, Kings, 76ers, Clippers, Mavericks, Celtics, Lakers, Pelicans.

Here's a list of guys that are projected to get max contracts this offseason:

Kyrie, Kemba, Klay, Kawhi, D-Lo, Durant, Butler, Harris, probably Middleton, Vucevic

You can scratch off the Mavericks once they sign/match on Kristaps, and the Kings and Pelicans aren't going to be shopping for a max guy this year.
On the other side it is highly doubtful that the Warriors let Klay walk this offseason. I'm also guessing that the Bucks will retain Middleton.

So that leaves 6 teams, with about 8 max slots between them, looking at 8 max-able free agents.

If Kawhi stays in Toronto then we have a really interesting game of musical chairs on our hands. Doubly so if Durant somehow remains in Golden State, as unlikely as that seems.
 

bowiac

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Lebron put up 27/8/8 last year, it's not like we're talking about 1987 Artis Gilmore here.

His age and injury risk are the biggest risks for the Lakers. If he hits a cliff, they will fail. But the cliff would be coming out of nowhere considering the numbers he's still putting up.
It's not a cliff, but there's a clear decline relative to the heights he used to be at (green is overall PIPM). He's gonna be another year older. I'd bet against him returning to form, and instead likely continuing the decline. Your mileage may vary.

24998
 

NYCSox

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Lebron put up 27/8/8 last year, it's not like we're talking about 1987 Artis Gilmore here.

His age and injury risk are the biggest risks for the Lakers. If he hits a cliff, they will fail. But the cliff would be coming out of nowhere considering the numbers he's still putting up.
8000 more career minutes played than Jordan (playoffs included) and playing a more physical game than Jordan.

Now Jordan didn't completely fall off a cliff but he was no longer the SG GOAT at the end of his career.
 

Cellar-Door

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As it stands the teams with space for a max or near-max player are:

Nets, Knicks, Kings, 76ers, Clippers, Mavericks, Celtics, Lakers, Pelicans.

Here's a list of guys that are projected to get max contracts this offseason:

Kyrie, Kemba, Klay, Kawhi, D-Lo, Durant, Butler, Harris, probably Middleton, Vucevic

You can scratch off the Mavericks once they sign/match on Kristaps, and the Kings and Pelicans aren't going to be shopping for a max guy this year.
On the other side it is highly doubtful that the Warriors let Klay walk this offseason. I'm also guessing that the Bucks will retain Middleton.

So that leaves 6 teams, with about 8 max slots between them, looking at 8 max-able free agents.

If Kawhi stays in Toronto then we have a really interesting game of musical chairs on our hands. Doubly so if Durant somehow remains in Golden State, as unlikely as that seems.
The Mavs can sign a max guy before signing Porzingis, in fact that's likely the plan. I wouldn't be so sure about either of the others, there have been some Pelicans rumors.

There are definitely going to be teams left outside looking in.
 

Sam Ray Not

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Lebron put up 27/8/8 last year, it's not like we're talking about 1987 Artis Gilmore here.
We're also not talking about 2008-2017 LeBron, which is the going assumption in a few of the posts above. The number of NBA players who are anywhere near as impactful at age 35 as they were at 25-30 is vanishingly small. James could end up the NBA version of (cough) Barry Bonds, but the better bet is that he'll continue along the path of (mild) decline that started a couple of years ago. (See Bowiac's chart).

One more half-step of mild decline and there's at least a chance we're looking at something along the lines of the 2017-18 Pelicans, only with 35 y.o. LeBron in the role of peak pre-Achilles Cousins (25/13/5, as long as we're throwing out traditional-stat slash lines, on nearly identical scoring efficiency to last year's LeBron). Kuzma as Mirotic. Potentially similar issues with (lack of) chemistry, culture, coaching and/or defense. And that's assuming the Lakeshow with their remaining $32M are able to land someone as good as or better than peak Jrue Holiday.

I don't think 2017-18 NOP is the most likely scenario, necessarily, but I'm not sure it's any less likely than them wrecking the 29 other teams and winning the whole shebang.
 
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Tony C

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If you think LeBron is in any sort of significant decline, you weren't watching last year. LeBron was as great as ever -- the statistical decline was quite slight, was impacted by playing part of the year injured, and also partly context driven given the weird supporting cast. And, again, it was slight. The groin injury is the only red flag -- not his performance when healthy. Of course there'll likely continue to be a bit of a decline as that's just the way of the world and of aging. But the concern shouldn't be about performance but, rather, about whether nagging injuries will become chronic. That's certainly possible, but no reason to assume it'll be the case -- so much wishcasting in this thread.

In short: a LeBron, AD, and either Kawhi or Kyrie would be devastating. Noel at the C and one sharpshooter and that'll be very, very tough in the playoffs. (Regular season lack of depth and managing usage they won't be so great.) The interesting thing and the test of Pelinka (god has that dude been dealt an easy hand) will be if they don't get Kawhi/Kyrie. Be very interesting to see if he can spend that $32 million in a smart way on complementary players.
 

OurF'ingCity

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Be very interesting to see if he can spend that $32 million in a smart way on complementary players.
Especially given that, in that latter scenario, there is very little doubt that LeBron will have his own guys in mind - guys who may or may not actually be good fits for the team.
 

Sam Ray Not

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the statistical decline was quite slight
Slight if we're talking about traditional numbers, which largely ignore defense, which is half the game. More pronounced if we look at numbers which attempt to measure on-court impact, as shown in Bowiac's chart above. If if the PIPM/RAPM numbers are a bit too abstract, we can also just look at his actual on-off numbers from the past five seasons (per 100 possessions):

on court / net on-off

+10.8 / +16.7
+11.7 / +16.5
+8.4 / +17.1
+1.6 / +2.5
+2.3 / +8.1

Out of context that could be looked at as normal variation, but in the context of a player's age 31-34 seasons, it seems reasonable to surmise there's some age-related decline going on, as there is with the vast majority of players as they enter their mid 30s.
 

bowiac

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This is the part where I tell you I have no idea what PIPM is.
Haha. Fair enough - could just have easily used RAPM or any of the other advanced plus/minus metrics out there. PIPM is probably the easiest to use these days, so it's become my default for quickie looks like this.
 

ElUno20

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According to ESPN, kawhi has requested to meet with jeanie and magic. This is happening. Fml.

Well I'll have plenty of free time ignoring the nba the next 5 years
 

TripleOT

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Not going to happen, but it would be amazing if Kawhi convinced the Lakers to S and T him for LeBron, and then sign another max FA that he wanted to play with.
 

ifmanis5

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Magic has gone from tampering for the Lakers in an official capacity to tampering in an unofficial capacity:
https://twitter.com/ramonashelburne/status/1144722576800792576
Magic Johnson says he will help the Los Angeles Lakers in free agency in any way he can, but he is not permitted by NBA rules to be part of official team meetings with prospective free agents. Johnson said he has not been asked by the Lakers or owner Jeanie Buss to participate.
Do the Celtics need one of these guys? Pierce? KG? Tommy? Eddie House?
 

ElUno20

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The bigger story is Kawhi reaching out to him. That all but solidifies it to me.
 

HomeRunBaker

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SemperFidelisSox

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Kawhi specifically asking for a meeting with Buss and Magic is all I need to hear. If he was really going back to Toronto, he wouldn’t be doing the free agency tour. This dysfunctional organization is going to fall ass backwards into a dynasty. This is like the Mets getting Trout, Yelich and Mookie.
 

Cellar-Door

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Kawhi specifically asking for a meeting with Buss and Magic is all I need to hear. If he was really going back to Toronto, he wouldn’t be doing the free agency tour. This dysfunctional organization is going to fall ass backwards into a dynasty. This is like the Mets getting Trout, Yelich and Mookie.
He asked them to meet his people to be more accurate. I don't think he goes back to TOR, but I think it's 50/50 which LA team he goes to
 

BigSoxFan

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Kawhi specifically asking for a meeting with Buss and Magic is all I need to hear. If he was really going back to Toronto, he wouldn’t be doing the free agency tour. This dysfunctional organization is going to fall ass backwards into a dynasty. This is like the Mets getting Trout, Yelich and Mookie.
Certainly seems like this may be heading that way. Would be most undeserved dynasty ever although the injury histories of AD and Kawhi along with LeBron’s age would give a sliver of hope.
 

the moops

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why would KL be interested in the Lakers over Clippers? star power?
Because a Kawhi, Lebron, AD trio has three of the best 5 or 7 or whatever basketball players in the world and would be an awesome team regardless of the dregs they sign on veteran minimum contracts?

It's not all that complicated
 

HomeRunBaker

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Because a Kawhi, Lebron, AD trio has three of the best 5 or 7 or whatever basketball players in the world and would be an awesome team regardless of the dregs they sign on veteran minimum contracts?

It's not all that complicated
From Windhorst:

Windhorst says other second-tier and third-tier free agents want to play for the Lakers now that they have Anthony Davis next to LeBron James: “There are guys out there who are lining up to join the Lakers, even if they’re on minimum contracts,” Windhorst said on ESPN radio. “Guys want to join this team, they want to be a part of this team, there’s a momentum there.”

– via Clutch Points



* I did chuckle that he began the names with Carmelo but other Klutch clients like Noel and Markieff are interesting pieces for sure.
 

DJnVa

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Nothing like helping create that momentum by putting that out there.
 

nighthob

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Yeah, there’s a reason we call Windhorst the Mouth of Sauron (MouSa for short).
 

djbayko

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And the process of elimination begins...

Off the Table
Kemba Walker
Klay Thompson


Looking Very Unlikely
Kyrie Irving
Kevin Durant

Worst Case Scenario
Kawhi Leonard

Possibly In Play
Jimmy Butler
D'Angelo Russell
Tobias Harris
Khris Middleton
Nikola Vucevic
 

BigSoxFan

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And the process of elimination begins...

Off the Table
Kemba Walker
Klay Thompson


Looking Very Unlikely
Kyrie Irving
Kevin Durant

Worst Case Scenario
Kawhi Leonard

Possibly In Play
Jimmy Butler
D'Angelo Russell
Tobias Harris
Khris Middleton
Nikola Vucevic
Middleton in the Ray Allen role would be deadly. Glad he’s not an UFA.
 

HowBoutDemSox

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And the process of elimination begins...

Off the Table
Kemba Walker
Klay Thompson


Looking Very Unlikely
Kyrie Irving
Kevin Durant

Worst Case Scenario
Kawhi Leonard

Possibly In Play
Jimmy Butler
D'Angelo Russell
Tobias Harris
Khris Middleton
Nikola Vucevic
Should we add Brogdon to the list? They certainly need a guard who can shoot and they can make him an offer in the ~$20 million a year range that Milwaukee may not match and then still have more space to fill in the rest of the roster beyond the room MLE and minimum guys.
 

Devizier

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Should we add Brogdon to the list? They certainly need a guard who can shoot and they can make him an offer in the ~$20 million a year range that Milwaukee may not match and then still have more space to fill in the rest of the roster beyond the room MLE and minimum guys.
Brogdon would be a killer fit. After Kawhi and Middleton he's probably their third best option (given Kyrie's history with Lebron).

Here's hoping for Harris or a D-Lo homecoming, I guess.
 

djbayko

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Should we add Brogdon to the list? They certainly need a guard who can shoot and they can make him an offer in the ~$20 million a year range that Milwaukee may not match and then still have more space to fill in the rest of the roster beyond the room MLE and minimum guys.
Sure, why not?

Off the Table
Kemba Walker
Klay Thompson


Looking Very Unlikely
Kyrie Irving
Kevin Durant

Worst Case Scenario
Kawhi Leonard

Possibly In Play
Jimmy Butler
Khris Middleton
Malcolm Brogdon
Nikola Vucevic
D'Angelo Russell
Tobias Harris
 

HowBoutDemSox

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Two tweets from Marc Stein re: Kawhi, seems like he wants a second star if he leaves Toronto and the Clippers are trying to recruit Jimmy Butler to go to the Clips with him:
The Clippers are exploring the feasibility of signing both Kawhi Leonard and Jimmy Butler in free agency, @NYTSports has learned
Leonard wants to be joined by a top-flight free agent if he decides to leave Toronto for the Clippers and Butler's rugged two-way game makes for an intriguing pairing. Clippers adviser Jerry West is also a known admirer of Butler
Would cross two options off the list for the Lakers, if it works out that way.
 

benhogan

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Two tweets from Marc Stein re: Kawhi, seems like he wants a second star if he leaves Toronto and the Clippers are trying to recruit Jimmy Butler to go to the Clips with him:




Would cross two options off the list for the Lakers, if it works out that way.
Butler/Kawhi to Clippers would be nice for EC downgrade fans
 

Gunfighter 09

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if It’s not going to be the best player in the NBA (Leonard) I think Russell is the best option for the Lakers. His max would leave them with ~$5M to spend, plus he would be reaching his prime right as LeBron retires, putting the Lakers in a good position to make those New Orleans picks worthless.
 

ManicCompression

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Worst Case Scenario
Kawhi Leonard

Possibly In Play
Jimmy Butler
D'Angelo Russell
Tobias Harris
Khris Middleton
Nikola Vucevic
This is the problem for the Lakers. If they don't land Kawhi or Butler (and neither look likely), their options are D'Angelo, Brogdon, Redick, Danny Green and that's about it. Most of the top FAs are front court players who can't play with the Lakers three best players. Would people be excited if Jeremy Lamb or Terence Ross were the starting 2 on this team?

Plus, now that Collison has retired and Mirotic left for Spain, the market has shrunk even more for two things that the Lakers dearly need - a point guard and shooting. There's a ton of money out there and if the Clippers and Knicks are left without top tier FAs, they're going to be bidding with the Kings for quality role players to play on big, one-year contracts, the same way Philly has kept Redick around the last couple of years.

It'll be impressive if they land Kawhi or Butler, but they're pretty screwed if they don't because they have almost zero options in the event that they fail. Is Lebron, AD, Kuzma, D'Angelo and a bunch of guys at the vet minimum a championship favorite? I'm not a huge DLo believer, so I don't think so. What's their option if D'Angelo goes somewhere else? Give Brogdon $25 million a year to get him out of Milwaukee? They have max space, but they're bidding for every player underneath that curtain - the advantages of LA only exist at the extremes of contracts (max and min) when the prices are equal and other things begin to take priority. Does Dallas outbid them for Brogdon? Sacramento? Milwaukee? The Pacers? Chicago? Phoenix? It's not like there's a shortage of teams with cap space and need a quality PG.

Looking forward to seeing how this plays out, but it seems like there are only a few scenarios where this works out (getting Russell, Kawhi, or Butler) and many more where this doesn't go according to plan. If LAC can add Butler and Leonard to their current roster, I like that team more than whatever the Lakers can put together for the rest of FA.
 

djbayko

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This is the problem for the Lakers. If they don't land Kawhi or Butler (and neither look likely), their options are D'Angelo, Brogdon, Redick, Danny Green and that's about it. Most of the top FAs are front court players who can't play with the Lakers three best players. Would people be excited if Jeremy Lamb or Terence Ross were the starting 2 on this team?

Plus, now that Collison has retired and Mirotic left for Spain, the market has shrunk even more for two things that the Lakers dearly need - a point guard and shooting. There's a ton of money out there and if the Clippers and Knicks are left without top tier FAs, they're going to be bidding with the Kings for quality role players to play on big, one-year contracts, the same way Philly has kept Redick around the last couple of years.

It'll be impressive if they land Kawhi or Butler, but they're pretty screwed if they don't because they have almost zero options in the event that they fail. Is Lebron, AD, Kuzma, D'Angelo and a bunch of guys at the vet minimum a championship favorite? I'm not a huge DLo believer, so I don't think so. What's their option if D'Angelo goes somewhere else? Give Brogdon $25 million a year to get him out of Milwaukee? They have max space, but they're bidding for every player underneath that curtain - the advantages of LA only exist at the extremes of contracts (max and min) when the prices are equal and other things begin to take priority. Does Dallas outbid them for Brogdon? Sacramento? Milwaukee? The Pacers? Chicago? Phoenix? It's not like there's a shortage of teams with cap space and need a quality PG.

Looking forward to seeing how this plays out, but it seems like there are only a few scenarios where this works out (getting Russell, Kawhi, or Butler) and many more where this doesn't go according to plan. If LAC can add Butler and Leonard to their current roster, I like that team more than whatever the Lakers can put together for the rest of FA.
I’d love to know the behind the scenes negotiiations / tampering that has occurred.

Did the Lakers not go hard after Kemba or does he not want to play there for some reason? Are the Lakers going all in on Kawhi and has that hurt their chances with acquiring other options?
 
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HomeRunBaker

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I keep hearing the term “tampering” but the NBA defines tampering as no player, coach or management person may entice or induce a player under contract with another team to play for his team.

None of these free agents are under contract with another team to where tampering can occur. Free agents are allowed meet with teams during the moratorium, but no contract agreements can become official until the end of the moratorium.
 

soxin6

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I keep hearing the term “tampering” but the NBA defines tampering as no player, coach or management person may entice or induce a player under contract with another team to play for his team.

None of these free agents are under contract with another team to where tampering can occur. Free agents are allowed meet with teams during the moratorium, but no contract agreements can become official until the end of the moratorium.
Do you really think that some of these players waited until contracts expired to start recruiting? The NBA is not likely to go after the players for violating these types of rules, so they should just take them off the books for current players.
 

Cellar-Door

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I keep hearing the term “tampering” but the NBA defines tampering as no player, coach or management person may entice or induce a player under contract with another team to play for his team.

None of these free agents are under contract with another team to where tampering can occur. Free agents are allowed meet with teams during the moratorium, but no contract agreements can become official until the end of the moratorium.
The Moratorium starts June 30th at 6pm EST (in previous years it was 12:00 am July 1) and extends until July 6th, so deal cannot be made official until July 6, and players and teams are not supposed to be in negotiations before June 30th, because the previousNBA year hasn't ended and all of these players are under contract.

So yes there is rampant tampering, but of a kind the NBA always allows, so long as nobody working for the team says anything publicly, nobody cares
 

Captaincoop

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This is the problem for the Lakers. If they don't land Kawhi or Butler (and neither look likely), their options are D'Angelo, Brogdon, Redick, Danny Green and that's about it. Most of the top FAs are front court players who can't play with the Lakers three best players. Would people be excited if Jeremy Lamb or Terence Ross were the starting 2 on this team?

Plus, now that Collison has retired and Mirotic left for Spain, the market has shrunk even more for two things that the Lakers dearly need - a point guard and shooting. There's a ton of money out there and if the Clippers and Knicks are left without top tier FAs, they're going to be bidding with the Kings for quality role players to play on big, one-year contracts, the same way Philly has kept Redick around the last couple of years.

It'll be impressive if they land Kawhi or Butler, but they're pretty screwed if they don't because they have almost zero options in the event that they fail. Is Lebron, AD, Kuzma, D'Angelo and a bunch of guys at the vet minimum a championship favorite? I'm not a huge DLo believer, so I don't think so. What's their option if D'Angelo goes somewhere else? Give Brogdon $25 million a year to get him out of Milwaukee? They have max space, but they're bidding for every player underneath that curtain - the advantages of LA only exist at the extremes of contracts (max and min) when the prices are equal and other things begin to take priority. Does Dallas outbid them for Brogdon? Sacramento? Milwaukee? The Pacers? Chicago? Phoenix? It's not like there's a shortage of teams with cap space and need a quality PG.

Looking forward to seeing how this plays out, but it seems like there are only a few scenarios where this works out (getting Russell, Kawhi, or Butler) and many more where this doesn't go according to plan. If LAC can add Butler and Leonard to their current roster, I like that team more than whatever the Lakers can put together for the rest of FA.
Kyrie has to be in play for the Lakers.