4/21 MiLB Gameday: Doubleheaders

koufax32 · Apr 21, 2015

At what point does B. Johnson get a shot in Boston or becomes a relatively valuable trade chip? Another excellent outing tonight.

TomRicardo · Apr 21, 2015

koufax32 said:
At what point does B. Johnson get a shot in Boston or becomes a relatively valuable trade chip? Another excellent outing tonight.

He is behind Eduardo Rodriguez in depth plus is not on the 40 man. Probably won't see him until later in the season.

Pilgrim · Apr 21, 2015

Margot still hasn't struck out this year. Crazy.

jscola85 · Apr 21, 2015

Margot is the best Sox OF prospect since [fill in the blank].

LeftyTG · Apr 21, 2015

jscola85 said:
Margot is the best Sox OF prospect since [fill in the blank].

I assume you're going to consider Mookie Betts a second baseman for this question (and aren't considering Rusney Castillo). Otherwise, one could argue Jackie Bradley Jr. He dominated A+ in his first full year in the minors, though admittedly as a college draftee his ARL isn't as good as Margot. Josh Reddick also comes to mind. Brandon Moss too.

I'm high on Margot and am very excited to see him continue his development. But he is still very far away and the list of guys who tore up high A ball is lengthy. While it is true that Margot has many dimensions to his game with his defense at a premium position and base stealing, I don't think he has enough on his resume to where we have to go back a ways to come up with a comparable prospect. Heck, even Che-Hsuan Lin is pretty comparable at the same point in their careers.

kenneycb · Apr 21, 2015

jscola85 said:
Margot is the best Sox OF prospect since [fill in the blank].

Westmoreland maybe?

LondonSox · Apr 22, 2015

koufax32 said:
At what point does B. Johnson get a shot in Boston or becomes a relatively valuable trade chip? Another excellent outing tonight.

He's a super solid high floor low ceiling guy. He's going to be a mid to back rotation guy who will rarely kill you and occasionally be great for me. Which is pretty damn valuable. Just that the Sox rotation is set at 4 points for a couple years and that fifth spot shouldn't really be a back of the rotation guy. So not sure where that leaves all of the top arms to be honest.
Owens and Rodriguez have more upside, Barnes I see at a elite set up guy/ closer and I don't know where that leaves Johnson.

jscola85 · Apr 22, 2015

LeftyTG said:
I assume you're going to consider Mookie Betts a second baseman for this question (and aren't considering Rusney Castillo). Otherwise, one could argue Jackie Bradley Jr. He dominated A+ in his first full year in the minors, though admittedly as a college draftee his ARL isn't as good as Margot. Josh Reddick also comes to mind. Brandon Moss too.

I'm high on Margot and am very excited to see him continue his development. But he is still very far away and the list of guys who tore up high A ball is lengthy. While it is true that Margot has many dimensions to his game with his defense at a premium position and base stealing, I don't think he has enough on his resume to where we have to go back a ways to come up with a comparable prospect. Heck, even Che-Hsuan Lin is pretty comparable at the same point in their careers.

Yes, Mookie moved to CF out of necessity.

As for the Westmoreland comment, I loved his upside but he never played past Lowell. Margot is now raking in High-A and I suspect will be in AA before long.

jscola85 · Apr 22, 2015

Che Hsuan Lin:

Greenville, Age 19: .249/.342/.359 triple slash, 33/40 SB, 62/43 K/BB
Salem, Age 20: .265/.355/.365 triple slash, 26/37 SB, 75/66 K/BB

Margot:

Greenville, Age 19: .286/.355/.449, 39/52 SB, 49/37 K/BB
Salem, Age 19/20: .356/.371/.600, 3/4 SB, 5/3 K/BB

Both are plus defenders (Lin probably superior due to his arm), but Margot is clearly displaying superior hit and power tools compared to Lin.

Plympton91 · Apr 22, 2015

LeftyTG said:
I assume you're going to consider Mookie Betts a second baseman for this question (and aren't considering Rusney Castillo). Otherwise, one could argue Jackie Bradley Jr. He dominated A+ in his first full year in the minors, though admittedly as a college draftee his ARL isn't as good as Margot. Josh Reddick also comes to mind. Brandon Moss too.

I'm high on Margot and am very excited to see him continue his development. But he is still very far away and the list of guys who tore up high A ball is lengthy. While it is true that Margot has many dimensions to his game with his defense at a premium position and base stealing, I don't think he has enough on his resume to where we have to go back a ways to come up with a comparable prospect. Heck, even Che-Hsuan Lin is pretty comparable at the same point in their careers.

Not picking on you specifically, but this is the type of old-school, lazy analysis of prospects that leads to people like Lou Gorman making really horrible decisions. If you look at the players you're comparing to Margot, you can actually see very real and incredibly important differences in things we now know matter more than batting average. Che-Hsuan Lin had no power; Margot had more home runs at Greenville than Lin had doubles at the same level/age and nearly twice as many extra base hits total. And comparing Margot to Reddick and Moss at this point is a compliment, as both are proven productive major leaguers.

SaveBooFerriss · Apr 22, 2015

Plympton91 said:
Che-Hsuan Lin had no power;

Plympton is being kind. Lin wasn't a very good hitter at all. He had a great eye in the lower minors which resulted in great OBP numbers. In the higher levels, pitchers knew he couldn't hit strikes and they threw them to him.

The reports on the tools is more exciting than the numbers for me. If I am going to look at one number for Margot it is going to be the XBH/K number. For the season, I think Margot has 6 XBH vs. 0 K. Only guys like Pedroia and Betts consistently had more XBH than Ks.

Cesar Crespo · Apr 22, 2015

You aren't going to find many comparable players to Margot, especially if you want them to be 20 and in high A.

That eliminates Jacoby, JBJ. Reddick k's too much. Ryan Kalish?

WenZink · Apr 22, 2015

bosox79 said:
You aren't going to find many comparable players to Margot, especially if you want them to be 20 and in high A.

That eliminates Jacoby, JBJ. Reddick k's too much. Ryan Kalish?

I was going to suggest Kalish, although he was a year behind Margot at each level. Injuries kept him from getting his shot with the Sox.

jscola85 · Apr 22, 2015

There's probably someone more recent, but the guy that comes to mind for me is Dernell Stenson. Not in that they were similar players, but that they were this exciting of an OF prospect at the age of 20 years old. Ellsbury came into the system older than that, and I think Redick and Moss were not quite the overall prospects that Margot is due to his defense/speed. Maybe Redick as he did always have a plus arm.

Plympton91 · Apr 22, 2015

Stenson, like Lars Anderson, always had alarmingly high K rates that should have been a red flag tipping us off to their high crash probability.

Was just looking at Margot's B-ref page, and if you combine last season's taste of high-A with this year's, it is remarkable.

98 plate appearances, 5 strikeouts; .356 / .371 / .600

Stud.

jscola85 · Apr 22, 2015

Yeah, you don't need to walk a lot if you never strike out and are tagging the ball every time you do put it in play.

Need to see another 100-150 PAs I think but at this rate he should ensure his rent is month to month in Salem.

4/21 MiLB Gameday: Doubleheaders

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