23-24 Bruins Season Thread

Salem's Lot

Andy Moog! Andy God Damn Moog!
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I think everyone here is posting under the assumption that this will be the case. Obviously I wouldn’t trade this for a rental but the ability to offer 8 years (plus a willing player) makes it close to a slam dunk that he’d re-sign.
Absolutely. I was responding to the part of the post talking about another US team offering a crazy contract in the offseason. I don’t think it ever get that far given the ability to offer 8 years.
 

j44thor

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If you can sell high on Lohrei and make him a core piece of the package I'm all for that. Don't think he will ever be average in the defensive end. There is nothing in his track record going back to college that suggests otherwise. Hoping he can get there with coaching and experience is simply wish-casting.
 

cshea

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The biggest issue in the short term, and this goes for adding anyone not just Hanifin, is the salary cap. They only have $57,500 in cap space so it's dollar in and dollar out. They don't have any obvious salary dump candidates. If they are bringing in Hanifin, they could use Grzelyck or Fobort (NTC) as salary offset and maintain defensive depth. They do potentially have Lindholm's LTIR to work with bu that assumes he's going to miss the rest of the regular season.
 

RedOctober3829

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The biggest issue in the short term, and this goes for adding anyone not just Hanifin, is the salary cap. They only have $57,500 in cap space so it's dollar in and dollar out. They don't have any obvious salary dump candidates. If they are bringing in Hanifin, they could use Grzelyck or Fobort (NTC) as salary offset and maintain defensive depth. They do potentially have Lindholm's LTIR to work with bu that assumes he's going to miss the rest of the regular season.
I would like to explore the LTIR route for Lindholm. What's more important? Getting Hanifin in the fold and have him to add to McAvoy/Lindholm for the long haul or having Lindholm out until the playoffs start? If that's what it takes, then I think they should do it.
 

cshea

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I would like to explore the LTIR route for Lindholm. What's more important? Getting Hanifin in the fold and have him to add to McAvoy/Lindholm for the long haul or having Lindholm out until the playoffs start? If that's what it takes, then I think they should do it.
They'd need buy in from Lindholm. He was injured a week ago today and they reported it as "week-to-week." We have no idea what that really means, but they have 7.5 weeks left in the regular season. If he's ready by mid-March or even late March, asking him to just sit tight for a month or more isn't ideal.

I think the cap is kind of how the Ullmark chatter picked up. They are going to need to move money if they are bringing anyone in and Ullmark would represent a way to do that plus recoup some futures they've already spent/are going to spend. DeBrusk would fall in this boat but I think DeBrusk is a bit less expendable (though easier to trade).

We'll see.
 

RedOctober3829

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They'd need buy in from Lindholm. He was injured a week ago today and they reported it as "week-to-week." We have no idea what that really means, but they have 7.5 weeks left in the regular season. If he's ready by mid-March or even late March, asking him to just sit tight for a month or more isn't ideal.

I think the cap is kind of how the Ullmark chatter picked up. They are going to need to move money if they are bringing anyone in and Ullmark would represent a way to do that plus recoup some futures they've already spent/are going to spend. DeBrusk would fall in this boat but I think DeBrusk is a bit less expendable (though easier to trade).

We'll see.
They could sell it to him as an opportunity to make sure he's 100% ready to go and fully rested for a deep playoff run. As you mention, the other option is to make Ullmark available.
 

Maximus

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I would also recommend using Grz or Forbort as a salary offset + other (s) to Calgary. Trading for and extending Hanifin is a good move for this year and beyond. We need another impact piece to tighten the overall D.
 

veritas

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Everyone is talking about Hanifin like he's a #1 defenseman while most of the publicly available advanced data seems to disagree pretty strongly. It suggests he's carried a fair amount by Tanev. Ignoring what we'd have to give up in assets, I don't think I'd want to give him a 7 year deal unless he's taking a pretty big hometown discount. The $8m/year numbers are insane to me.
 

NYCSox

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I would like to explore the LTIR route for Lindholm. What's more important? Getting Hanifin in the fold and have him to add to McAvoy/Lindholm for the long haul or having Lindholm out until the playoffs start? If that's what it takes, then I think they should do it.
We also need to get the doctor that Kucehrov and Stone used to sign the note. :)
 

cshea

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Everyone is talking about Hanifin like he's a #1 defenseman while most of the publicly available advanced data seems to disagree pretty strongly. It suggests he's carried a fair amount by Tanev. Ignoring what we'd have to give up in assets, I don't think I'd want to give him a 7 year deal unless he's taking a pretty big hometown discount. The $8m/year numbers are insane to me.
I think something in the 7's is about right. He strikes me as comparable to Morgan Rielly who has a $7.5 million AAV. Both are more offensive than defensive top 4 guys. Hanifin is 2 years younger too.

Tanev certainly helps him but if he came here he wouldn't be the #1 or even really the #2. And they are going to have to spend money on the position regardless, I'd rather 1 Hanifin than a Grzelyck, Forbort and Reilly.
 

moretsyndrome

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That doesn't seem fair. Management has to know that he hasn't been able to escape his own end of the ice in weeks and should have been able to find him there.
 

Jordu

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I’ve looking at the NHL Edge playing tracking website stats trying to figure out if the data is useful at all. As an off-day project I compiled the Bruins stats for top skating speed and speed bursts over 20mph ranked by NHL percentile.

Here’s the data. Does anyone see anything meaningful here?

TOP SPEED - FORWARDS
Richard 22.99
Coyle: 22.78
Frederic: 22.75
Beecher: 22.68
Zacha: 22.67
Pastrnak: 22.51
Geekie: 22.42
Boqvist: 22.35
Brazeau: 21.9
DeBrusk: 22.15
NHL avg for forwards: 22.05
Marchand: 21.97
Heinen: 21.88
van Riemsdyk: 21.78
Steen: 21.74
Poitras: 21.5
Brazeau: 21.19

TOP SPEED - DEFENSEMEN
Lindholm: 22.67
McAvoy: 22.57
Grzelcyk: 21.22
Carlo: 21.14
Lohrei: 21.12
Shattenkirk: 20.98
Forbort: 20.72
NHL avg for defensemen: 20.72
Wotherspoon: 20.49


FORWARDS - Speed bursts over 20 mph by NHL forward percentile
Pastrnak: 84th
DeBrusk: 80th
Coyle: 72nd
Beecher: 69th
Marchand: 68th
Frederic: 68th
Zacha: 62nd
Heinen: 53rd
Boqvist: 51st
Richard: below 50th
Geekie: below 50th
Poitras: below 50th
Steen: below 50th
van Riemsdyk: below 50th
Brazeau: below 50th
 

Salem's Lot

Andy Moog! Andy God Damn Moog!
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I’ve looking at the NHL Edge playing tracking website stats trying to figure out if the data is useful at all. As an off-day project I compiled the Bruins stats for top skating speed and speed bursts over 20mph ranked by NHL percentile.

Here’s the data. Does anyone see anything meaningful here?

TOP SPEED - FORWARDS
Richard 22.99
Coyle: 22.78
Frederic: 22.75
Beecher: 22.68
Zacha: 22.67
Pastrnak: 22.51
Geekie: 22.42
Boqvist: 22.35
Brazeau: 21.9
DeBrusk: 22.15
NHL avg for forwards: 22.05
Marchand: 21.97
Heinen: 21.88
van Riemsdyk: 21.78
Steen: 21.74
Poitras: 21.5
Brazeau: 21.19

TOP SPEED - DEFENSEMEN
Lindholm: 22.67
McAvoy: 22.57
Grzelcyk: 21.22
Carlo: 21.14
Lohrei: 21.12
Shattenkirk: 20.98
Forbort: 20.72
NHL avg for defensemen: 20.72
Wotherspoon: 20.49


FORWARDS - Speed bursts over 20 mph by NHL forward percentile
Pastrnak: 84th
DeBrusk: 80th
Coyle: 72nd
Beecher: 69th
Marchand: 68th
Frederic: 68th
Zacha: 62nd
Heinen: 53rd
Boqvist: 51st
Richard: below 50th
Geekie: below 50th
Poitras: below 50th
Steen: below 50th
van Riemsdyk: below 50th
Brazeau: below 50th
I don’t think it’s lack of speed that’s keeping Bruins defensemen from keeping larger players out of the crease and slot area. Carlo, Forbort, and Lindholm (when healthy) are all large enough to do that job, and none of them have done it when protecting leads late enough.
 

Frisbetarian

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I’ve looking at the NHL Edge playing tracking website stats trying to figure out if the data is useful at all. As an off-day project I compiled the Bruins stats for top skating speed and speed bursts over 20mph ranked by NHL percentile.

Here’s the data. Does anyone see anything meaningful here?

TOP SPEED - FORWARDS
Richard 22.99
Coyle: 22.78
Frederic: 22.75
Beecher: 22.68
Zacha: 22.67
Pastrnak: 22.51
Geekie: 22.42
Boqvist: 22.35
Brazeau: 21.9
DeBrusk: 22.15
NHL avg for forwards: 22.05
Marchand: 21.97
Heinen: 21.88
van Riemsdyk: 21.78
Steen: 21.74
Poitras: 21.5
Brazeau: 21.19

TOP SPEED - DEFENSEMEN
Lindholm: 22.67
McAvoy: 22.57
Grzelcyk: 21.22
Carlo: 21.14
Lohrei: 21.12
Shattenkirk: 20.98
Forbort: 20.72
NHL avg for defensemen: 20.72
Wotherspoon: 20.49


FORWARDS - Speed bursts over 20 mph by NHL forward percentile
Pastrnak: 84th
DeBrusk: 80th
Coyle: 72nd
Beecher: 69th
Marchand: 68th
Frederic: 68th
Zacha: 62nd
Heinen: 53rd
Boqvist: 51st
Richard: below 50th
Geekie: below 50th
Poitras: below 50th
Steen: below 50th
van Riemsdyk: below 50th
Brazeau: below 50th
With the caveat that I’m not sure how accurate this data is, what sticks out to me is that Jake Debrusk went from 23.23 MPH in 2022-23 which was 92nd percentile, to 22.15 this season, which is below 50th percentile. He still has bursts, but apparently not as consistently. I have no inside info here in Mexico, but I do know Jake has had issues with conditioning in the past, and wonder if that’s come up again.
Thanks for posting this info @Jordu
 

Jordu

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With the caveat that I’m not sure how accurate this data is, what sticks out to me is that Jake Debrusk went from 23.23 MPH in 2022-23 which was 92nd percentile, to 22.15 this season, which is below 50th percentile. He still has bursts, but apparently not as consistently. I have no inside info here in Mexico, but I do know Jake has had issues with conditioning in the past, and wonder if that’s come up again.
Thanks for posting this info @Jordu
it was an amusing way to pass a half hour.

Coyle’s speed, both top speed and speed bursts, surprised me. I’ve always thought of him as a heavy, puck-possession player and I’ve never appreciated his speed.

Coyle is having a career year, that’s for sure.
 

RIFan

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With the caveat that I’m not sure how accurate this data is, what sticks out to me is that Jake Debrusk went from 23.23 MPH in 2022-23 which was 92nd percentile, to 22.15 this season, which is below 50th percentile. He still has bursts, but apparently not as consistently. I have no inside info here in Mexico, but I do know Jake has had issues with conditioning in the past, and wonder if that’s come up again.
Thanks for posting this info @Jordu
Using the bolded as a jumping off point and not specifically about Jake. Does anyone feel that this team is exceptionally well conditioned? My uniformed suspicion is that some of their issues with closing out games and OT success lies with their conditioning. Definitely not everyone, but there appears to be some heavy legs late particularly with the D.
 

Salem's Lot

Andy Moog! Andy God Damn Moog!
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Using the bolded as a jumping off point and not specifically about Jake. Does anyone feel that this team is exceptionally well conditioned? My uniformed suspicion is that some of their issues with closing out games and OT success lies with their conditioning. Definitely not everyone, but there appears to be some heavy legs late particularly with the D.
I don’t see a conditioning issue on this team. I think the not being able to close out games has a lot more to do with not having the premier defensive forward in the game at center anymore. He covered up a lot of issues in the defense.

As far as DeBrusk, if he can’t be motivated to stay in shape in a contract year, then I just don’t know where his head is at.
 

cshea

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I don't know if conditioning is the right way to phrase it but I absolutely think a contributing factor to their 3rd period fades is increased ice time to key players. A lot of players are playing more minutes than they ever have. It's only natural for that to lead to some fatigue and burnout near the end of games. I know Fris' "1 out of 50!" story was about draws but they got started down that path because they noticed that Bergeron was losing effectiveness in the 3rd period because he was playing way too many minutes early in games. I don't think it is out of the question that something similar is happening this year.

In terms of the end of game guys, Coyle is playing over a minute more. Marchand is a minute more. McAvoy is playing almost 3 minutes more than he did a year ago. Carlo is up a minute and a half. Zacha's got a 2+ minute boost.
 

Cotillion

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I don't know if conditioning is the right way to phrase it but I absolutely think a contributing factor to their 3rd period fades is increased ice time to key players. A lot of players are playing more minutes than they ever have. It's only natural for that to lead to some fatigue and burnout near the end of games. I know Fris' "1 out of 50!" story was about draws but they got started down that path because they noticed that Bergeron was losing effectiveness in the 3rd period because he was playing way too many minutes early in games. I don't think it is out of the question that something similar is happening this year.

In terms of the end of game guys, Coyle is playing over a minute more. Marchand is a minute more. McAvoy is playing almost 3 minutes more than he did a year ago. Carlo is up a minute and a half. Zacha's got a 2+ minute boost.
There's a couple times where they buried Lohrei (somewhat necessarily) in some games recently... one of them where he never saw the ice again in the third period with like 8 minutes left...

If you are going to have him up, you kind of have to play him just to avoid torching the health of your best D guys...
 

mwonow

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Based on last night, this is definitely not tied to his pugilistic "ability." But yeah, could do a lot worse for a bottom-pair/some PK dman.
 

Haunted

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We'll see and all, but I hate that they got two cement heads. I know they had no real trade capital, especially if Ullmark nixed a deal, but... fine. Roll with what you have.
 

Scoops Bolling

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Maroon I don't mind, I'd much rather have a guy like him against squads like Florida, Toronto, Vegas, Dallas, etc., than Jakob Lauko. Peeke seems like a classic Sweeney/Neely bad move; yeah he may improve, yeah he can fill a role, no that role is not hard to find or fill (see: Wotherspoon). It's like a baseball GM going out and handing fat deals to middle relievers, it's just a bad use of resources even if you can "fix" the guy. The fact Ullmark nixed a deal that may well have been worse, if there's any legs to them pursuing PLD, is mortifying. For all his good work this offseason, this has been a deadline of falling back on his worst tendencies for Don.
 

cshea

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There was a lot of smoke out there but this was always the most likely outcome. I don't love the Peeke move for long term reasons but losing Forbort for the year at least brings a bit of clarity to the short term.

Marchand - Coyle - DeBrusk
Heinen - Zacha - Pastrnak
van Riemsdyk - Geekie - Frederic
Lauko - Boqvist - Brazeau*

Grzelyck - McAvoy
Lindholm - Carlo
Wotherspoon - Shattenkirk
Peeke

LTIR: Maroon, Poitras, Forbort, Lucic

About $2 million in cap space for the rest of the year. They sent Lohrei, McLaughlin and Brazeau down today. I assume Brazeau will be back for tomorrow's game. I'm not sure what they'll do with Lohrei, Lindholm is "probable" to return tomorrow.
 

Myt1

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IMHO, the biggest impact of this deadline, besides the competition getting better, is what the proposed trade to LA does to Ullmark’s psyche. He’s already a whack job simply by virtue of being a goalie, but there have been multiple indications that comfort and security play a (substantial???) role in his performance.
 

cshea

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Is it safe to assume Beecher is banished for the remainder of the season?
Not sure. They have a bit more cap flexibility now, part of the reason he's been down there is they couldn't fit in his salary if they wanted to call him up. His salary is $925,000 and for the last little while they've only had ~$800,000 in cap space at any given time. That's led to the juggling of guys making $775,000, Brazeau, Richard, McLaughlin. With Forbort on LTIR they have more flexibility to call guys up. However, there are limits and they can only regular recall 4 players between now and the end of Providence's season.

That said, Boqvist has settled into the 4C role and has performed better than Beecher did so I don't see an immediate need for Beecher. I think Brazeau will stay for a little longer and then we'll see if they want to shuffle things.