2024 Rotation and Bullpen

Sox Pride

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He's got options, but he's also been excellent this spring. Campbell is actually a lefty killer so we aren't as thin there as it appears.
Given our early season fixture congestion and our starters aren’t stretched out yet, i imagine we’ll have several long men on the Pawtucket shuttle aka nominally on the minor league roster, but soon swapped up to the bigs to extend the staff.

I’ll be honest, I like our staff possibilities. I understand we’d likely be better signing JM and moving Whitlock to the pen, but I’m intrigued in how The starting five we’ve got are going to work out.
 

The Gray Eagle

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So I guess Dalbec makes the roster then. Could we please get 2021 Dalbec back, who was at least a useful player?
 

simplicio

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Fer chrissakes, keep Bernardino on the big club.
I agree, but he's also got a weird profile so I could see the new pitching group deciding to use an option.

Ultimately I suspect this boils down to their concern about running out of passable arms over the course of the season. All three of those lefties are preferable to this year's version of Llovera, so a short term slight downgrade may be the best move if it means keeping enough arms on the roster to get through the season.
 

Al Zarilla

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I agree, but he's also got a weird profile so I could see the new pitching group deciding to use an option.

Ultimately I suspect this boils down to their concern about running out of passable arms over the course of the season. All three of those lefties are preferable to this year's version of Llovera, so a short term slight downgrade may be the best move if it means keeping enough arms on the roster to get through the season.
Maybe you’re playing chess and I’m playing checkers with bullpen construction, but Bernardino looks nasty, especially against lefties. We shall see.
 

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Maybe you’re playing chess and I’m playing checkers with bullpen construction, but Bernardino looks nasty, especially against lefties. We shall see.
I think the metaphor to use is that this season is going to be a marathon and not a sprint. With the amount of innings they need to fill and cost of pitching ($ or talent) they need to keep everyone they can in the system.
 

simplicio

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Maybe you’re playing chess and I’m playing checkers with bullpen construction, but Bernardino looks nasty, especially against lefties. We shall see.
I agree with you, he was one of our best relievers last year, but the how of it is a little mysterious. He doesn't have velocity, he doesn't have a ton of movement, his extension sucks, yet it all still works somehow.

I would note that he dropped off pretty significantly at the end of the season without a huge workload, so that's another factor to consider.
 

Rovin Romine

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Thought it was time for a general overview post, given the flurry of recent moves. This is probably the opening day roster, maybe with Bernardino being traded out for Weissart or something.

On the injury-return front Mata has no options and will likely start the season on the IL. Maybe he gets traded or clears waivers, but I don't expect he'll be back right away, and even so there are players in the pen with options, so maybe he gets a tryout, regardless. Other than that, nothing pressing.

I think we have just-adequate but not deep depth, unless the AAA guys start putting something together. If a starter goes down, there's Winckowski. If one or two bullpen spots need to be filled, there's Weissert and Leutge.


Starting Rotation:

1 Bello​
2 Pivetta​
3 Crawford​
4 Houck​
5 Whitlock​

Starting Depth, * indicates current 40-man: Winckowski* (long man MLB), Anderson* (long man MLB), Criswell* (AAA), Walter* (AAA), Fitts (AAA), Van Belle (AAA), Gonzalez* (AA), Perales* (AA).​

Bullpen:

1 Jansen​
2 Martin​
3 Winckowski (initial long man)​
4 Anderson (initial long man)​
5 Slaten​
6 Rodriguez (LHP)​
7 Campbell​
8 Bernardino (LHP)​

Bullpen Depth: Weissert* (AAA), Jacques* (LHP) (AAA), Zack Kelly* (AAA), Leutge (LHP) (AAA), Booser (LHP) (AAA)​

On the 40 man are:

Lucas Giolito: 60day IL TJ surgery
Chris Murphy (LHP): 60day IL, likely TJ
Liam Hendricks: 60day IL, recovering TJ, maybe available post-trade-deadline.
Bryan Mata: seems likely to start season on IL​
 

simplicio

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I'm assuming that's Weissert in the last spot then.

Booser pitched the last inning tonight but he's not on the 40 man currently.
 

Yo La Tengo

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Thought it was time for a general overview post, given the flurry of recent moves. This is probably the opening day roster, maybe with Bernardino being traded out for Weissart or something.

On the injury-return front Mata has no options and will likely start the season on the IL. Maybe he gets traded or clears waivers, but I don't expect he'll be back right away, and even so there are players in the pen with options, so maybe he gets a tryout, regardless. Other than that, nothing pressing.

I think we have just-adequate but not deep depth, unless the AAA guys start putting something together. If a starter goes down, there's Winckowski. If one or two bullpen spots need to be filled, there's Weissert and Leutge.


Starting Rotation:

1 Bello​
2 Pivetta​
3 Crawford​
4 Houck​
5 Whitlock​

Starting Depth, * indicates current 40-man: Winckowski* (long man MLB), Anderson* (long man MLB), Criswell* (AAA), Walter* (AAA), Fitts (AAA), Van Belle (AAA), Gonzalez* (AA), Perales* (AA).​

Bullpen:

1 Jansen​
2 Martin​
3 Winckowski (initial long man)​
4 Anderson (initial long man)​
5 Slaten​
6 Rodriguez (LHP)​
7 Campbell​
8 Bernardino (LHP)​

Bullpen Depth: Weissert* (AAA), Jacques* (LHP) (AAA), Zack Kelly* (AAA), Leutge (LHP) (AAA), Booser (LHP) (AAA)​

On the 40 man are:

Lucas Giolito: 60day IL TJ surgery
Chris Murphy (LHP): 60day IL, likely TJ
Liam Hendricks: 60day IL, recovering TJ, maybe available post-trade-deadline.
Bryan Mata: seems likely to start season on IL​
Where do we think the innings are going to come from? I noted earlier that there are ~1400 innings a season. Averaging 140 innings per 5 starters (which would be a huge success) is only 700 innings. Said another way, if all 5 starters make 25 starts and average 5 innings per start (which would also qualify as a huge success), that leaves 37 games that need a starter. And 775 innings that someone needs to throw.

What is a realistic number of innings that this bullpen can absorb? Is this something Bailey has ever addressed? Curious because the Giants had the most innings pitched by the bullpen last year.

Here is innings pitched by bullpen each year, along with SF's total during the three full seasons Bailey was the pitching coach:

2023: SF at 705, Philly the lowest at 543, Boston at 655
2022: TB at 682, Houston the lowest at 495, Boston at 623, SF at 650 (5th most)
2021: TB at 703, Oakland the lowest at 539, Boston at 607, SF at 623 (11th most)
2019: TB at 772, Nationals the lowest at 500, Boston at 665
2018: TB at 824, CLE the lowest at 463, Boston at 587

Here is the chart I'm using. Not sure how openers are included in this data.
https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&month=0&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&stats=rel&sortcol=7&sortdir=default&startdate=&enddate=&season1=2021&season=2021
 

Rovin Romine

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Where do we think the innings are going to come from? I noted earlier that there are ~1400 innings a season. Averaging 140 innings per 5 starters (which would be a huge success) is only 700 innings. Said another way, if all 5 starters make 25 starts and average 5 innings per start (which would also qualify as a huge success), that leaves 37 games that need a starter. And 775 innings that someone needs to throw.

What is a realistic number of innings that this bullpen can absorb? Is this something Bailey has ever addressed? Curious because the Giants had the most innings pitched by the bullpen last year.

Here is innings pitched by bullpen each year, along with SF's total during the three full seasons Bailey was the pitching coach:

2023: SF at 705, Philly the lowest at 543, Boston at 655
2022: TB at 682, Houston the lowest at 495, Boston at 623, SF at 650 (5th most)
2021: TB at 703, Oakland the lowest at 539, Boston at 607, SF at 623 (11th most)
2019: TB at 772, Nationals the lowest at 500, Boston at 665
2018: TB at 824, CLE the lowest at 463, Boston at 587

Here is the chart I'm using. Not sure how openers are included in this data.
https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&month=0&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&stats=rel&sortcol=7&sortdir=default&startdate=&enddate=&season1=2021&season=2021
I think we've touched on this before, but it's a good question to ask, and I don't think anyone has provided a range of bullpen-inning numbers as you have.

I wonder if it makes sense to pair this with a similar set of starter numbers for recent seasons. Then we'd get an idea of how many starters a team uses, and how many innings per. We could compare that to our roster.
 

simplicio

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I don't think 140 IP/starter would be a huge success, I think it would be a major problem. With good health Bello and Pivetta should be capable of 170+ IP, Crawford should be able to get to 150. A 140 average would mean you're only getting 105 from the 4 & 5 slots which would be a disaster.
 

Yo La Tengo

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I don't think 140 IP/starter would be a huge success, I think it would be a major problem. With good health Bello and Pivetta should be capable of 170+ IP, Crawford should be able to get to 150. A 140 average would mean you're only getting 105 from the 4 & 5 slots which would be a disaster.
I think the general consensus is that a pitcher should add 25-30 innings year to year.

Here are the innings pitched by each of the 5 starters last year:

Bello- 157
Pivetta- 142
Crawford- 129
Houck- 106
Whitlock- 71

That's 605 innings which would project to a total of 730 innings to 755 innings this year. That calculates out to 146-151 innings per starter. I figured there would be some minimal amount of time missed, hence the 140 inning target I listed.

EDIT: For a best case scenario this season: Bello and Pivetta throw 175 innings each, Crawford and Houck each throw 150 innings, and Whitlock gets up to 125 innings. That's still only 775 innings, leaving 625 innings up in the air. Guess how many innings Red Sox starters threw last year? 774.1, fourth lowest in MLB. Hence my concern.
 
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simplicio

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The math isn't going to work quite like that though, if Whitlock can only handle 125 innings it's not going to mean he does 30 4 inning starts, it'll be a case of him wearing down in August and getting sent to the pen (or IL) and Anderson or Criswell (or deadline acquisition) taking his spot in the rotation.

The situation last year was also exacerbated by cluster luck in injuries wrecking the bullpen by going to the 3 man rotation in August. Spread that out a little and I don't think it's as much of a problem (still not great of course).
 

CR67dream

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I don't think 140 IP/starter would be a huge success, I think it would be a major problem. With good health Bello and Pivetta should be capable of 170+ IP, Crawford should be able to get to 150. A 140 average would mean you're only getting 105 from the 4 & 5 slots which would be a disaster.
Yeah, I think B&B are counting a big uptick in innings for starters this year, at least until health or effectiveness get in the way, and hopefully injury luck won't be so catastrophic again.

Pivetta in particular could have thrown more innings last year if he had been kept in the rotation, so effectiveness was the issue, not durability. Fortunately it appears his stint in the pen was beneficial, and he has since added to his arsenal and addressed issues affecting performance. I'd be much more comfortable with him as the number 3, but I'm bullish that he'll step it up.

Bello too should be able to pile innings up. New contract, opening day start, a whole different situation for the kid, I can not wait to see what he becomes.

Crawford, Houck, and Whitlock are likewise in different situations than years past, and each have a fully defined role entering the season. They understand what's expected of them and what it will take to keep those roles in the long term. All three are young and seem quite capable of taking this next step in their development. The talent is off the charts, it's time to harness it. They are all healthy and have looked very good, with Whit and Kutter being particularly filthy. While I think B&B will be watching carefully, I also expect they will let them become actual starters, and put up inning totals in that vein until they prove they can't. I'd prefer that all three didn't have to do it once, but alas.

All that said, there is no doubt that the Sox are making a huge bet here. I've come around to the thinking that given the totality of the circumstances, this is just the right time to place that bet. We won't know what we will actually get until we get it. Sure, I would have greatly preferred a healthy Giolito and Houck to the pen, in fact I'd be legit excited about this team if that were the case, but as I said, given everything, I don't blame B&B for taking the opportunity to see once and for all what they've got. And I believe that they believe that there's a lot there to like. Now we get to see if they're right.

I'd rather things were different, and the risks are apparent, but there should be some reward there too.
 

Rovin Romine

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I think the general consensus is that a pitcher should add 25-30 innings year to year.

Here are the innings pitched by each of the 5 starters last year:

Bello- 157
Pivetta- 142
Crawford- 129
Houck- 106
Whitlock- 71

That's 605 innings which would project to a total of 730 innings to 755 innings this year. That calculates out to 146-151 innings per starter. I figured there would be some minimal amount of time missed, hence the 140 inning target I listed.

EDIT: For a best case scenario this season: Bello and Pivetta throw 175 innings each, Crawford and Houck each throw 150 innings, and Whitlock gets up to 125 innings. That's still only 775 innings, leaving 625 innings up in the air. Guess how many innings Red Sox starters threw last year? 774.1, fourth lowest in MLB. Hence my concern.
Bello threw 153 innings in 28 ML/MiL starts in 22. Then he threw 162 innings in ML/MIL last year over 29 starts - and that includes a 15 day IL stint for elbow inflammation.
This year (age 25) I see no reason he couldn't make a jump to 30+ starts and go over 175 innings. Especially with good defense behind him.

Pivetta, before his bobbling about last year, threw 155 innings in 30 ML starts in 21. Then he threw 180 innings in 33 ML starts in 22.
I see no reason he couldn't make 30-33 starts and go over 175 innings.

Those two might be "best case" in terms of staying healthy, but it's not quite the same thing as "best case" learning a new pitch or the like.

Crawford, Houck, and Whitlock all had mixed roles or lengthy injury stays. So maybe there "best case" is a bit more of a stretch, as it involves staying off the IL all season and also becoming more effective in the role. But even so, there seems to be improvement in conditioning, pitch quality, and pitching results in ST - certainly for Whitlock. Houck and Whitlock still have not directly challenged their "third time through" issues as well. And I think it's that which will really determine their innings numbers at the end of the year.

While each have pros and cons, I think they each have the endurance and the pitches to be passible starters. If we get slightly lucky, we hit on 2 or 3 of them.
 

nvalvo

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I wonder if part of the plan is to acquire an SP “with term” at the deadline as a way to have our “give the kids a chance” cake and eat it too.

Good starts from a couple of the kids (Yorke and Bleis, especially) could give us quite a stockpile to trade from.
 

Yo La Tengo

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Bello threw 153 innings in 28 ML/MiL starts in 22. Then he threw 162 innings in ML/MIL last year over 29 starts - and that includes a 15 day IL stint for elbow inflammation.
This year (age 25) I see no reason he couldn't make a jump to 30+ starts and go over 175 innings. Especially with good defense behind him.

Pivetta, before his bobbling about last year, threw 155 innings in 30 ML starts in 21. Then he threw 180 innings in 33 ML starts in 22.
I see no reason he couldn't make 30-33 starts and go over 175 innings.

Those two might be "best case" in terms of staying healthy, but it's not quite the same thing as "best case" learning a new pitch or the like.

Crawford, Houck, and Whitlock all had mixed roles or lengthy injury stays. So maybe there "best case" is a bit more of a stretch, as it involves staying off the IL all season and also becoming more effective in the role. But even so, there seems to be improvement in conditioning, pitch quality, and pitching results in ST - certainly for Whitlock. Houck and Whitlock still have not directly challenged their "third time through" issues as well. And I think it's that which will really determine their innings numbers at the end of the year.

While each have pros and cons, I think they each have the endurance and the pitches to be passable starters. If we get slightly lucky, we hit on 2 or 3 of them.
I agree with you about Pivetta and hope he can get to 180 innings. Bello seems like a different story in that he really faded down the stretch last year, pitching poorly over his last 5 or 6 starts. He looked worn out (that was reported as well). I hope he can get to 170 innings but that brings up the next question: how much should the Sox push their 4 young starters beyond the customary year-to-year increase in innings totals? I just don't see any way those five pitchers get much beyond 775 innings and there are no obvious answers for how the Sox are going to fill the remaining 625 innings.

Fitts has had a good spring and he threw 150 innings in the minors last year. I'd love to see him fill in with effective innings with the Sox. But they are likely going to need 2 or 3 of him.
 

Rovin Romine

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I agree with you about Pivetta and hope he can get to 180 innings. Bello seems like a different story in that he really faded down the stretch last year, pitching poorly over his last 5 or 6 starts. He looked worn out (that was reported as well). I hope he can get to 170 innings but that brings up the next question: how much should the Sox push their 4 young starters beyond the customary year-to-year increase in innings totals? I just don't see any way those five pitchers get much beyond 775 innings and there are no obvious answers for how the Sox are going to fill the remaining 625 innings.

Fitts has had a good spring and he threw 150 innings in the minors last year. I'd love to see him fill in with effective innings with the Sox. But they are likely going to need 2 or 3 of him.
I hear you on the general issue, but I'm not sure I frame it exactly the same way. I think in terms of starts. Somebody has to start the 162 games. That works out to 32.5 starts for a 5 man rotation. But only 9 guys in MLB started 33 games or more last year. (Giolito was one.)

Then your starters have to take innings off the pen. Last year the top 10 guys threw 216-195 innings. Which, over 33 starts or so is just over 6 innings. And those are the elite guys.

So Bello or Pivetta at 175/30 would be going 5.8 innings. That's suddenly not a huge difference. Maybe 6 of their starts go to a Criswell. Or maybe they go to 33. But I'm making this point to suggest, in terms of innings, there's not going to be a radical step-up from Bello and Pivetta. (I'm also not saying they're top 10 guys - I'm saying they have the arms to function as legit ML starters.)

So that gives us the final 3 slots.

Houck did 106/21 in 2023 sandwiched around a gruesome injury. If we pull that game and 3 MiL recovery starts and the next 2 (ramping up pitch counts) it's 97/18. So it's an average of 5 innings v. 5.4 innings. And there, we see the third-time through issue rearing it's head. But he's not far off making it to the end of the 6th. Sure, it's cherry picking, but I think it indicates something about the state of his arm. So I'm mildly optimistic he can make 30.

You can do Crawford and Whitlock, but I think the key there is that they had to be stretched out (multiple times) as their roles changed. So they're putting in the work on their arms out of the bullpen, but not getting the benefit of a full season of predictable pattern of starting and resting and stretching and starting. So I think there's a lot of noise in the numbers. But I also think they can get up in the 30 range with health.

As for the remaining starts (5 starters going 30 leaves 12 starts) you get what you usually get - callups if someone is fatigued or injured, the odd opener game, etc. There, I think, we're better served than we were in 23 in terms of MiL depth for spot starters or longmen. Or at least I hope we will be by mid-season. Maybe there's a plus arm there, but the callups shouldn't be automatic losses.

The related question is bullpen burnout. Again, MiL depth can help, but the starters can't cluster poor starts at the risk of torching arms. Again, there, I think we're better off than we were in '23, as hopefully there will be less bobbling and emergency coverage.
 

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I agree with you about Pivetta and hope he can get to 180 innings. Bello seems like a different story in that he really faded down the stretch last year, pitching poorly over his last 5 or 6 starts. He looked worn out (that was reported as well). I hope he can get to 170 innings but that brings up the next question: how much should the Sox push their 4 young starters beyond the customary year-to-year increase in innings totals? I just don't see any way those five pitchers get much beyond 775 innings and there are no obvious answers for how the Sox are going to fill the remaining 625 innings.

Fitts has had a good spring and he threw 150 innings in the minors last year. I'd love to see him fill in with effective innings with the Sox. But they are likely going to need 2 or 3 of him.
Well, presumably the bullpen will cover most of that 625. Last year, relievers accounted for ~42% of innings pitched, so roughly 600 innings per team.
 

Rovin Romine

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As a related question - bref has a great page that shows the result of the games and the winning pitcher/losing pitcher. e.g., https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2023-schedule-scores.shtml

Does anyone know of a resource that shows (for the season) who started the games and how deep they went?

I think that would be immensely useful to have. We could see the pressure on the pen across the season.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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As a related question - bref has a great page that shows the result of the games and the winning pitcher/losing pitcher. e.g., https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2023-schedule-scores.shtml

Does anyone know of a resource that shows (for the season) who started the games and how deep they went?

I think that would be immensely useful to have. We could see the pressure on the pen across the season.
Stathead can do that. That's the subscription side of B-Ref. You need a sub to use the tools and see the full results. But you don't need a sub to see the results of a search shared by a subscriber (which I am). So here's the Red Sox starting pitchers for all of 2023.
 

Yo La Tengo

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I hear you on the general issue, but I'm not sure I frame it exactly the same way. I think in terms of starts. Somebody has to start the 162 games. That works out to 32.5 starts for a 5 man rotation. But only 9 guys in MLB started 33 games or more last year. (Giolito was one.)
I don't disagree with your math but I am concerned that there is essentially no room for injuries or poor performance from the five starters. I can see plausible upside for each of them. But I think it is really unlikely that all five achieve those improvements in both performance and durability. Maybe 3 of the 5 can hit those goals? But then the team is needing to fill ~50+ starts, which melts down the bullpen, both because one of those relievers is often the spot starter and those games tend to lean more heavily on the relief crew.

And, in looking at the numbers, I appreciate why the Sox targeted Giolito as a free agent. He would have been a really good fit for this team.
 

Yo La Tengo

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Stathead can do that. That's the subscription side of B-Ref. You need a sub to use the tools and see the full results. But you don't need a sub to see the results of a search shared by a subscriber (which I am). So here's the Red Sox starting pitchers for all of 2023.
This is great! Sox pitchers threw more than 5 innings 62 times last year, winning 41 of those games. And they threw less 5 innings 63 times, and won only 20 of those games.

Not sure what to make of that symmetry but my instinct is getting the sub-5 inning starts up to 5 innings is likely more important than stretching the over-5 inning starts further.
 

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I don't disagree with your math but I am concerned that there is essentially no room for injuries or poor performance from the five starters. I can see plausible upside for each of them. But I think it is really unlikely that all five achieve those improvements in both performance and durability. Maybe 3 of the 5 can hit those goals? But then the team is needing to fill ~50+ starts, which melts down the bullpen, both because one of those relievers is often the spot starter and those games tend to lean more heavily on the relief crew.

And, in looking at the numbers, I appreciate why the Sox targeted Giolito as a free agent. He would have been a really good fit for this team.
Generally agree. Criswell, Jacques, Kelly and Walter are the next men up. Breslow will have to be on his toes from tomorrow through the trade deadline. We are due some better luck, but that doesn't mean it will happen.
 

Rovin Romine

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I don't disagree with your math but I am concerned that there is essentially no room for injuries or poor performance from the five starters. I can see plausible upside for each of them. But I think it is really unlikely that all five achieve those improvements in both performance and durability. Maybe 3 of the 5 can hit those goals? But then the team is needing to fill ~50+ starts, which melts down the bullpen, both because one of those relievers is often the spot starter and those games tend to lean more heavily on the relief crew.

And, in looking at the numbers, I appreciate why the Sox targeted Giolito as a free agent. He would have been a really good fit for this team.
That's the risk here, I absolutely agree. But they're all young arms and apparently healthy. . .and we already got our catastrophic injuries for this season - no more I hope! So Giolito's loss pulls Houck/Whitlock into the rotation, and Murphy's loss weakens AAA (or the pen - he was essentially replaced by Anderson, perhaps.)

If one of the 5 goes down, it's just like anyone else's club. You have to go to the MiL teams, trade for a starter, or stretch out a bullpen guy. We've had to do the first and last too often in recent years, but there's just never going to be a wartless and viable and established ML starter hanging out in the ether as your emergency replacement. We have Criswell and Fitts (and Walter) in AAA. . .and I hope with a little seasoning and attention by mid-season they'll be a better option than Murphy/Walter.
 

Rovin Romine

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This is great! Sox pitchers threw more than 5 innings 62 times last year, winning 41 of those games. And they threw less 5 innings 63 times, and won only 20 of those games.

Not sure what to make of that symmetry but my instinct is getting the sub-5 inning starts up to 5 innings is likely more important than stretching the over-5 inning starts further.
Could be a little chicken-egg there with starters going longer against poor lineups, and shorter v better ones? There's also a bunch of those Someone-opens-for-Pivetta games.

But look at those early starts - no starter recorded an out in the 6th until the 16th start (Whitlock.) And in 6 of them, the starter didn't record an out in the 5th. Brutal.
 

sezwho

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This is great! Sox pitchers threw more than 5 innings 62 times last year, winning 41 of those games. And they threw less 5 innings 63 times, and won only 20 of those games.

Not sure what to make of that symmetry but my instinct is getting the sub-5 inning starts up to 5 innings is likely more important than stretching the over-5 inning starts further.
Edit - RR fast!
 

Rovin Romine

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Not determinative of anything due to the bullpen/offense but some interesting factoids for 2023 Sox starts when considering the game outcome:

-4-11 when a starter gives up an unearned run.

-Walks for starters seem to be less grossly determinative of an eventual win or loss than high strikeout numbers.
42 games with 7 or more Ks for a starter: 26 wins 16 losses.​
31 games with 3 or more BBs for a starter: 14 wins, 16 losses.​
Games with both 7Ks and 3 BBs?: 7 wins, 2 losses.​
Both 6Ks and 3 BBs: 10 wins, 4 losses.​

-What do seem very determinative are HRs. Which seems obvious, but the implications of "trading" a HR for a walk are interesting.
35 games where the starter gave up 2 or more HRs: 7 wins, 28 losses.​
54 games where the starter gave up only 1 HR: 28 wins, 26 losses.​
This one's interesting - when the starter (excluding openers) left with 1 run credited to them or less: 29 wins, 19 losses. Granted, sometimes a struggling starter is pulled early and the bullpen is taxed, but I still found it surprising the win totals weren't higher.

Starts where the books closed on the starters (again excluding openers) with 0 runs - i.e., a potential shutout? 9 wins, 4 losses (this is a subset of the previous group.)
 
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GB5

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Aug 26, 2013
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Not sure if it belongs here, but according to Passan the RS just acquired Naoyuki Uwusawa from TB on a minor league deal. He was not expected to make TB opening day roster. Long time pitcher in the NPB. Believe he is a starter. Finesse guy.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Unsurprising he didn't make the TB roster. His spring stats: 4 appearances, 9.2 innings, 13.03 ERA, 2.379 WHIP. 30 years old. Worcester rotation filler. Nothing more.
 

jon abbey

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Unsurprising he didn't make the TB roster. His spring stats: 4 appearances, 9.2 innings, 13.03 ERA, 2.379 WHIP. 30 years old. Worcester rotation filler. Nothing more.
Actually I believe the 'assignment clause' means that he makes the BOS 26 man roster.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Actually I believe the 'assignment clause' means that he makes the BOS 26 man roster.
It does not. He was on a minor league deal with the Rays (same as Cron and Joely with the Sox). All the assignment clause does is allow him to ask/opt out of the Rays organization. Presumably he has another opt-out around the end of April that he can exercise on the Red Sox.
 

simplicio

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Interesting, he's been good for 160+ innings the last 3 years in Japan. We may need it!

More importantly: what if Bailey knows how to fix shitty Rays pitchers?
 

jon abbey

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OK, I just spent too much time researching this. I think the 'assignment clause' means that he has to be added to the 40 man, but not the 26 man.

"His contract has an assignment clause stating that on March 23rd, if another team wants to give him an opportunity to be placed on their 40-man roster, the Rays will be forced to let him go or to add him to their 40-man roster."

https://www.draysbay.com/2024/2/20/24078376/naoyuki-uwasawa-wants-to-stick-with-the-rays
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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OK, I just spent too much time researching this. I think the 'assignment clause' means that he has to be added to the 40 man, but not the 26 man.

"His contract has an assignment clause stating that on March 23rd, if another team wants to give him an opportunity to be placed on their 40-man roster, the Rays will be forced to let him go or to add him to their 40-man roster."

https://www.draysbay.com/2024/2/20/24078376/naoyuki-uwasawa-wants-to-stick-with-the-rays
If that's the case, it makes sense. I couldn't see the Sox acquiring him if they were forced to add him to the 26-man. But they do have 40-man spots to spare since they can still move Hendriks or Murphy to the 60-day IL. I still think he's Worcester rotation filler for the time being though.