2024 Playoffs Eastern Conference First Round: (2) New York Knicks vs (7) Philadelphia 76ers - The Danse Macabre

[InstaFace]

NBA series preview: https://www.nba.com/news/2024-nba-playoffs-series-preview-knicks-76ers

SI preview: https://www.si.com/nba/76ers/news/philadelphia-sixers-new-york-knicks-first-round-schedule-2024-nba-playoffs

Game Schedule:

GAME 1: Sat, April 20 - 6 PM ET - Madison Square Garden
GAME 2: Mon, April 22 - 7:30 PM ET - Madison Square Garden
GAME 3: Thu, April 25 - 7:30 PM ET - Wells Fargo Center
GAME 4: Sun, April 28 - 1:00 PM ET - Wells Fargo Center
GAME 5: Tue, April 30 - TBD - Madison Square Garden
GAME 6: Thu, May 2 - TBD - Wells Fargo Center
GAME 7: Sat, May 4 - TBD - Madison Square Garden

Betting odds are just about even: Knicks +105, 76ers -105

Knicks fan preview:

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CF-wLrTvTKs

 

[lovegtm]

The early season Sixers were really good, but I just don't believe in Embiid being at his top-end right now, especially against NY's physicality. Also seems like a good matchup for Brunson.

Taking Knicks in 6, since I don't think homecourt matters a ton here for closing it out.

 

[TomRicardo]

That Knicks bet looks so good except Thibs might be stubborn enough to keep the Knicks from opening up and getting a hobbled Embiid moving in transition.

 

[jon abbey]

One funny story, not sure how well this is known (sorry if everyone knows this already):

We all know that the Villanova teams with Brunson and Bridges and Hart etc. were loaded, winning NCAA titles in 2016 and 2018. Most of us also probably remember how incredible Buddy Hield was in college, the next in the line of Steph Curry, Trae Young, a guy who could shoot from anywhere. In the 2016 tournament, Hield went nuts in the first four games, averaging just under 30 points, the most since, yes, Curry in 2008.

But Oklahoma played Villanova in the Final Four that year, and Villanova obliterated them, 95-51, Hield shot just 4-12, 1-8 from 3 point range, 9 total points. How did they manage to shut him down like that? Well, one big reason was that they assigned a red-shirt freshman to impersonate Hield in practice, and that freshman was incredible, playing on the same level if not better as Hield.

“He kicked our ass,” Josh Hart said.

“That made it easier going into that game defending Buddy Hield,” added Mikal Bridges.

Who was that red-shirt freshman? Yes, that's right, Donte DiVincenzo.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/03/sports/ncaabasketball/villanova-donte-divincenzo.html

 

[Euclis20]

Speaking of Hield, he finally gets off the top of a pretty rough list: Most minutes among active players (and 2nd most all-time) without a playoff appearance. The new #1 among active players (and 10th all-time) is Lauri Markkanen.

The Knicks have a ceiling aside from Randle's loss (which means they only have one reliable shot creater): Thibs is an 82 game coach, for better or worse. It was fun to joke about all the minutes Knicks starters were racking up over the last couple of months, but beyond the cumulative fatigue of those minutes, it will be very difficult for their key players to raise their games when they've already been at 100% effort since the ASB.

Of course Embiid hasn't shown any inkling of being able to raise his game in the playoffs either (as discussed ad nauseam, it's been the opposite). I like the Knicks here, unless Lowry (who is somehow still starting games after looking pretty toasty last year) can somehow outflop Brunson. The latter is gonna just go crazy in this matchup.

 

[m0ckduck]

I can almost talk myself into Philly. There's so many days off in the schedule, they can probably squeak some big performances out of Embiid even if he's far from 100%.

But, I keep coming back to: Brunson going bananas. It feels like part of the plan against NY has to be making him work on both ends and trying to tire him out. There's too many places for Brunson to hide on D against this 76ers team, starting with Kyle Lowry. I expect him to have a monster series.

They're also playing great energy as of late, the Knicks, esp. at MSG. Philadelphia looks a lot more stiff and mechanical trying to reintegrate Embiid, as we just saw. NY in 6.

 

[Jakarta]

Knicks in 5. Embiid will have 1 game where he carries the Sixers to a win but will otherwise be limited. Brunson has a massive series.

Looking forward to Thibs’ playoff rotation where Hart and DD play 48 mins, while Brunson and OG only play 42.

 

[CaptainLaddie]

If any of these games go to OT, Hart's going to pull a Wilt and average more than 48 min/g.

 

[JakeRae]

Philly in 6. There’s a huge coaching value difference. Philly with a hobbled Embiid is probably a relatively even match for the Knicks on talent (with a healthy Embiid it isn’t close and with no Embiid it also isn’t close the other way). I’m also not buying Brunson in the playoffs yet. There is no reason to believe he’ll stay at the same level when the intensity is turned up (and his limited historic sample isn’t good on that front but is way too small to draw conclusions from). And, again, coaching. If Philly can play competitively, Nurse will win the game of adjustments and it won’t be close.

I am assuming Embiid can stay on the court. If his knee flares to a point where he can no longer play, the Knicks will roll over the Sixers.

 

[jon abbey]

One interesting thing about Thibs is that he has never had a defender he can use like Anunoby*, who bothers/shuts down almost anyone he faces. There is a very limited sample size as Anunoby has only played 23 games for NY still, but two games where this was really notable were in January, against PHI he guarded both Maxey and Embiid at different times and against DEN he guarded both Jokic and Murray at times, and NY won those two games by 36 and 38 points. NY did still have Randle for those games, but still worth noting IMO.

*Luol Deng was great but I think he mostly stuck to SFs, almost no one for any team in my memory moves around guarding every position like they've been using Anunoby. Stan Van Gundy has called him 'the most versatile defender' in the league during a few different games this year.

 

[jon abbey]

I can almost talk myself into Philly. There's so many days off in the schedule, they can probably squeak some big performances out of Embiid even if he's far from 100%.

Worth nothing that Embiid sat game #82 and had four days off before last night's game.

 

[InstaFace]

One interesting thing about Thibs is that he has never had a defender he can use like Anunoby*, who bothers/shuts down almost anyone he faces. There is a very limited sample size as Anunoby has only played 23 games for NY still, but two games where this was really notable were in January, against PHI he guarded both Maxey and Embiid at different times and against DEN he guarded both Jokic and Murray at times, and NY won those two games by 36 and 38 points. NY did still have Randle for those games, but still worth noting IMO.

*Luol Deng was great but I think he mostly stuck to SFs, almost no one for any team in my memory moves around guarding every position like they've been using Anunoby. Stan Van Gundy has called him 'the most versatile defender' in the league during a few different games this year.

I was going to say, Celtics fans would probably point out that Thibs was the defensive coach for the Big Three era Celtics, so he's had some talent to work with over the years... but then I went over to Darko and saw that Anunoby has a higher D-DPM right now (nearing 2) than Paul Pierce ever had (maxed out around 1), or for that matter, T-Wolves era Jimmy Butler. All of Thibs' great defenders (KG, Perk, Joakim Noah, etc) have usually been bigs. So you might be right about him never having a guy like Anunoby before!

 

[jon abbey]

I was going to say, Celtics fans would probably point out that Thibs was the defensive coach for the Big Three era Celtics, so he's had some talent to work with over the years... but then I went over to Darko and saw that Anunoby has a higher D-DPM right now (nearing 2) than Paul Pierce ever had (maxed out around 1), or for that matter, T-Wolves era Jimmy Butler. All of Thibs' great defenders (KG, Perk, Joakim Noah, etc) have usually been bigs. So you might be right about him never having a guy like Anunoby before!

I am talking about flexibility of matchups as much as quality, though. I am saying that there are almost never players in the league who try to guard Embiid and Maxey or Jokic and Murray for long stretches in the same game, partly because teammates are rarely flexible enough defensively to cover the other positions. Prime Artest could guard centers, could he guard PGs? Jimmy Butler could guard 1-4, but legit 5s? Draymond Green maybe? Kawhi? It's rare.

 

[Euclis20]

I am talking about flexibility of matchups as much as quality, though. I am saying that there are almost never players in the league who try to guard Embiid and Maxey or Jokic and Murray for long stretches in the same game, partly because teammates are rarely flexible enough defensively to cover the other positions. Prime Artest could guard centers, could he guard PGs? Jimmy Butler could guard 1-4, but legit 5s? Draymond Green maybe? Kawhi? It's rare.

Joe has had Jrue do some of that this year, but even as good as he is, it seems a bit gimmicky. Draymond is the one that immediately came to mind, and Lebron could do it too (although his responsibilities on offense were always too great for him to do it for more than a few minutes at a time late in playoff games). I feel like Giannis might be able to do this, but his coaches have always preferred him off ball (although that's probably an answer in and of itself).

This is absolutely something that Dennis Rodman would be able to do in the modern NBA.

 

[InstaFace]

Jrue certainly comes to mind, in terms of being able to truly guard 1-5, but I won't gainsay a Knick fan who thinks Anunoby is a better defender than Jrue right now. There was a time you could say the same about Al Horford, too - but either way, it's certainly rare, you're quite right.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Embiid moving better than he did against MIA. 9 early points.

 

[JakeRae]

Embiid moving better than he did against MIA. 9 early points.

Philly looks flat out better than the Knicks early. They are getting good offense and the Knicks very much aren’t.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Philly looks flat out better than the Knicks early. They are getting good offense and the Knicks very much aren’t.

PHI has Oubre and Harris on Brunson early. Either Brunson is going to make some shots or NYK is in real trouble.

NYK offensive rebounding keeping them in it early.

 

[lars10]

PHI has Oubre and Harris on Brunson early. Either Brunson is going to make some shots or NYK is in real trouble.

NYK offensive rebounding keeping them in it early.

Philly is also shooting 50% from three which I'm not sure they can keep up.

So far the playoffs seem to be being ref'd a lot different than the end of the season.. a ton of FTs in the first quarter.

 

[ugmo33]

Just came here to say I'm happy the C's didn't get the 76ers if for no other reason than I don't have to listen to Doris gush over Embiid for a whole series

 

[lars10]

Just came here to say I'm happy the C's didn't get the 76ers if for no other reason than I don't have to listen to Doris gush over Embiid for a whole series

I'm not sure if it's good or bad that she's been paired with JJ.. feel like he deserves his own pairing, he doesn't get to talk a lot with Doris in the booth and at least he usually brings something to the table other than fawning over players or whatever Doris has become as a commentator.

Edit: also happy that the Celts only have to play one of NYK, Philly or the Bucks.

 

[InstaFace]

(this was from Feb 4th but I always think about it whenever I see Brunson complain to officials)

 

[Mystic Merlin]

Tobias Harris has been shitty the past few games.

 

[Dr. Gonzo]

Doris is just awful

 

[lars10]

Embiid just busted his knee dunking.

 

[jmcc5400]

And there it is. Knicks in 4 or 5.

 

[DeadlySplitter]

Embiid had the stare of a dead man on that shot

 

[JCizzle]

Oh shit

 

[JakeRae]

Embiid just busted his knee dunking.

I’m betting he’s back for the second half.

 

[benhogan]

Embiid just busted his knee dunking.

yep, looks bad

poor guy can't even do a stylish self-alley-oop without going down in pain

 

[lars10]

So fucking stupid to rush him back early... and for him to try a first dunk as an alley oop off the backboard to himself.

 

[Euclis20]

That was an amazing play, and a perfect coda for Embiid's season (if this is it). No character judgement to point out that maybe he just can't stay healthy.

 

[johnmd20]

I’m betting he’s back for the second half.

I would gladly take the other side of that bet.

 

[PC Drunken Friar]

I don’t think Embiid can land on one leg anymore.

 

[lars10]

I’m betting he’s back for the second half.

I dunno.. he came down with all of his weight on his bad knee in a really awkward way.. all of his weight going towards that side of his knee as well. I'm not a doctor though... just looked like exactly the type of way you reinjure a knee.

 

[bankshot1]

Embiid broken again?

Knee Fence!

 

[lars10]

He hurt his knee in late february? Schedule for a torn meniscus after surgery is three to six months? He's at the very early end of the range of when he should be back, is that correct?

edit: oh good.. Stephen A is chirping.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Tobias Harris has been shitty the past few months.

Fixed it for ya.

 

[mostman]

This ESPN half time panel is unwatchable.

 

[JCizzle]

This ESPN half time panel is unwatchable.

How it took minutes to mention Embiid is crazy

 

[JakeRae]

This ESPN half time panel is unwatchable.

Malika is perfectly fine and Wilbon isn’t awful. The other two…….

 

[mostman]

Malika is perfectly fine and Wilbon isn’t awful. The other two…….

Malika is fantastic. She deserves way better.

 

[greek_gawd_of_walks]

He's out there, but is he in mind, body and spirit?

 

[JCizzle]

Embiid remains the king of drama

 

[jmcc5400]

Embiid remains the king of drama

That's unfair. He shouldn't be out there.

 

[lars10]

Breen: Lowry "one of the smartest NBA players in the past 15 years"

 

[lars10]

I’m betting he’s back for the second half.

what are tomorrow's lottery numbers just in case you're on a streak?

 

[JakeRae]

Malika is fantastic. She deserves way better.

She can be fantastic. She is merely fine on the halftime show because they don’t really let her do much besides pass the mic between everyone else.

 

[lars10]

She can be fantastic. She is merely fine on the halftime show because they don’t really let her do much besides pass the mic between everyone else.

ESPN seems to generally want the dumbest people in the room to talk the most.

 

[Auger34]

This game is exactly why I will never put Embiid close to my top 10 players.

 

[JakeRae]

what are tomorrow's lottery numbers just in case you're on a streak?

I didn’t see any significant twist/flex so was betting on hard impact + pain = fear as opposed to a serious injury.