Not sure Wong is a JAG at catcher. His defense alone makes him valuable and his offense isn’t terrible for a catcher. As discussed previously, if he can make a bit more contact he’s a better than average hitting catcher. Defense, decent hitter for catcher and inexpensive = pretty good player.
Catcher is the one spot where you don't really need to move your incumbent starter to "make room" for the rising star. In fact, I'd argue you don't want to do that. Ideally, you want a platoon partner for Teel that you trust to take the bulk of the starts until the kid gets his feet under him. Might as well have that be the guy already taking the bulk of starts, especially since Wong's right handed swing better compliments Teel's left handed swing. And if it gets to the point where Wong isn't getting enough playing time for his abilities, he's got the flexibility to move out from behind the plate on occasion. Also, if it reaches that point, Wong will arguably still have trade value so he could be moved after Teel has established himself.
I mean depending on who they might target and who they move during the off season it could be any of the OF positions, a 2nd baseman or an everyday type that carries 2 gloves.
Sorry, but he's probably a JAG. He might still recover but he's getting his third crack at the league and is coasting on a .350 BABIP to a WRC+ of like 86. He's striking out an insane amount for a guy who's only hit nine homers. Even if he cut his K rate down some, it'd still be around 30%.
Hernandez can absolutely compete for the job next spring and I don't think anyone is arguing against that idea specifically. I think the pushback is more on the notion that one of Wong or McGuire would have to go before that can happen. Sure, one would have to go if Hernandez wins a job in spring training but I don't think he's quite at a level where you clear the decks in advance to give him that chance.
The Red Sox didn't give Devers all that money and all those years to move him to DH at age 26. He may never be better than a below-average 3B, but he can and has been a lot better than he's played this season. Work with him.
Yeah the more I think about it that's totally fair and makes sense. Any trade at that position would probably have to come after someone's won the job outright.
I'm generally one that questions the "core", at least on the pitching / prospect side, and while I get your point on many of the others, how do you arrive at this conclusion of a 2.5 WAR for Verdugo and Duran being their max?
Duran’s high BABIP is more likely the result of his speed than luck. It’ll stay high as long as he stays fast.
Depends on what you mean by high, but .380 is too high to sustain. We discussed this in another thread: A fast guy might expect a BABIP around .330 to .340... but not .380, season in, season out for his career. It just doesn't happen. Take a look throught the careers of various speedsters if you want.
Fair enough. I don't fully grasp the difference in methodology - but to the best of my understanding (minimal at best) BBRef seems to award what "did" happen in their WAR numbers whereas FG focuses more on what the underlying statistics say should have happened (as an example in 2008 Matsuzaka had a 2.7 fWAR and a 5.4 bWAR).
Particularly if this plays out where Teel seems like The Guy. That's awesome but unless his bat is positively nuclear you probably want to increase his workload gradually. Wong still gets maybe 60-80 starts in this amazing scenario.
Don't get me wrong, I like Duran. But whether he's prearb or not doesn't affect how good he is. How good he is affects how good he is. The fact is he's still a bad defender, below average by most measures.
This is true. A quick run-down:
If his bat is positively nuclear the backup becomes even more important because you’d really want to limit his games at C to no more than 120 and have him DH the rest of the time to keep his bat in the lineup and his knees healthy.
He made a leap from embarrassing to merely bad from 2022 to 2023. It may be possible to further improve.
Fair point but with Roman Anthony's recent emergence as a potential star (hit his first HR in his 3rd AA game today, only 19) and Rafaela's dominance in AAA, it makes a Verdugo extension unwise if they can extract great value this off season. Obviously prospects don't always turn out but Rafaela has looked great so far in Boston and players like Anthony who are good enough to be in AA at 19 tend to go on to have great careers.
Wade Boggs sustained a .378 BABIP over his age 27-30 seasons which covered 612 games and 2837 plate appearances. And he wasn't even fast! Not that I expect Duran to put up Wade Boggs numbers, but I'm skeptical of the notion that BABIP is more luck=based than skill-based.
The discussion here is almost consensus that only Bello is a sure thing. After that Houck has been argued, Whitlock is presumably conclusively set for the pen. Crawford is a question.
Wong has made real progress defensively this year.
He still hasn't caught that much in his career, so there should be room for more improvement.
Offensively, he is at 252/308/420 on the season. In the second half, he's at 279/328/443.
Is he, though? His walk rate is down this year, and he's showing decent FIP (4.18), xERA (3.62), and SIERA (4.09). Not bad for his first season as mostly a starter.
Crawford is significantly worse the 2nd time through the order (5.86 ERA) than either Houck (4.00) or Whitlock (2.35).
The reason I think the narrative is Crawford > Houck is that Crawford pitches so inefficiently that he rarely gets to the 3rd time through the order compared to Houck. & Crawford has been lights out the 1st time through.
Yeah, I've been puzzled by the collective love for Crawford as a starter, particularly in contrast to the lack of it for Houck and Whitlock. He's not necessarily exhibiting any qualities that puts him ahead of either guy as a starter.
I wasn't building any projection into that. Just ordering the options we have assuming similar performance next year.
Funny to me so many are clamoring for Ceddane to start over him because it's not so clear to me who's better presently, and Wilyer is off to an insane start. With his plate discipline and pop, sky is the limit, even if he ends up being a 25%-30% K guy.
This is spitballing to some extent, but we see guys like him come up pretty often who aren't ballyhooed but just know how to handle the bat and it plays as good or better as they rise. 360 PAs in AAA as an underage guy OPSing .930 with .391 OB%... he warrants a serious look in the majors.
More to the point, Cora needs to give Abreu (and probably Rafaela too) a ton of playing time in these last three weeks to see if he stays hot or if other teams figure out how to pitch to him. Better find out now so that he can work on adjustments in the offseason, rather than show up next April just to find out everyone else has the book on him.
Or, somewhat more cynically, let’s get ALL the kids up to make all the adrenaline soaked mistakes and get as much rookie foolishness out of their systems as possible in a lost season.
Fair, there really aren’t (fast track Teel !) more young players languishing in AAA. I would have been more accurate saying ‘play the kids as much as possible’.
Soxprospects suggests that 2024 could see Yorke, Drohan and Mata, but we'll see.
I'm thinking that at least a couple of those spots are going to open up. There is a MI logjam that could be thinned out a bit.
