2023 Starting Rotation

[LogansDad]

Paxton pulled at 70 pitches as planned. 3.1 innings, 6 K's 2 walks, 2 runs. Fastball was 94-96, stuff is there on the offspeed pitches but some command to work on still.

Got squeezed a little in the 3rd which led to him grooving a slider that the left fielder dove for but missed for a run scoring triple, then that guy scored on a swinging bunt that Paxton didn't field.

Looked sharp, though.

 

[gattman]

It will be interesting to see what the Sox do when Bello & Paxton join the rotation. I hope it means Whitlock & Houck to the pen. That would give them a pretty damn deep pen— Jansen, Martin, Whitlock, Houck, Schreiber, Winckowski & the remaining ligaments of Kelly.

 

[YTF]

Paxton pulled at 70 pitches as planned. 3.1 innings, 6 K's 2 walks, 2 runs. Fastball was 94-96, stuff is there on the offspeed pitches but some command to work on still.

Got squeezed a little in the 3rd which led to him grooving a slider that the left fielder dove for but missed for a run scoring triple, then that guy scored on a swinging bunt that Paxton didn't field.

Looked sharp, though.

Yes, I watched a bit of the early innings and I have to say that given the length of his journey, yesterday was encouraging.

 

[RS2004foreever]

Has Sale been better than he looks?
ERA - 11.25. xFIP 3.85. BAP is .406, which will inevitably come down.
His HR/FB ratio is a whopping 42% (his career average is about 12%).

 

[Max Power]

Has Sale been better than he looks?
ERA - 11.25. xFIP 3.85. BAP is .406, which will inevitably come down.
His HR/FB ratio is a whopping 42% (his career average is about 12%).

Maybe a little. He's thrown a bunch of hittable fastballs right over the plate and pretty much every one has been crushed. Usually hitters will foul some of those off or hit them at someone, but that hasn't been the case for Sale so far. FIP doesn't take the quality of contact into account, so it's painting a rosier picture of Sale than it should.

 

[LogansDad]

Maybe a little. He's thrown a bunch of hittable fastballs right over the plate and pretty much every one has been crushed. Usually hitters will foul some of those off or hit them at someone, but that hasn't been the case for Sale so far. FIP doesn't take the quality of contact into account, so it's painting a rosier picture of Sale than it should.

On the flip side, I think he has also been hurt by the defense behind him, as well. I don't think he's been great, but he hasn't had a lot of help behind him, either.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

No pitcher can be good with a 3.8 HR rate, and a 5.3 BB rate.

FIP for Sox starters is all pretty terrible

Houck 4.59
Pivetta 5.07
Kutter 5.87
Kluber 6.76
Sale 7.62
Whitlock 9.17

Has Sale been as bad as his 11.25 ERA suggests? No, but he’s still been really bad.

 

[chrisfont9]

Paxton pulled at 70 pitches as planned. 3.1 innings, 6 K's 2 walks, 2 runs. Fastball was 94-96, stuff is there on the offspeed pitches but some command to work on still.

Got squeezed a little in the 3rd which led to him grooving a slider that the left fielder dove for but missed for a run scoring triple, then that guy scored on a swinging bunt that Paxton didn't field.

Looked sharp, though.

I thought I saw he hit 97? Quibbling but hey.

 

[chrisfont9]

Once again Houck has a strong outing and plays a bit of the stopper's role. Bello is up Monday, Paxton close, and the team has said enough times that they don't want to pull Whitlock from the rotation. How they sort out the seven guys for five spots will say a lot about whether they are prioritizing this season over development, or not. If you are thinking long term, you don't shift Houck to the pen. I know we've spent enough time suggesting they do this or that, but we are going to get the actual answer very soon.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

I agree with your overall point but I wouldn’t call that a good outing by Houck. 8 baserunners in 4 innings, including 4 walks? 90 pitches? Very fortunate to have only given up 2 runs. Will happily take the outcome but he’s not usually going to get such a positive result if he keeps pitching like he did last night.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

I’m hoping that Bloom and Cora consider releasing Kluber….. just consider it. Maybe even putting Sale into the pen? I don’t know but I do think the best long term solution is to keep trying Houck and Whitlock as starters…. If it works, it addresses the biggest deficiency in the long term. Bouncing them back and forth will prevent any sort of predictive production from them.
Or…. Just say fuck it and keep them in the pen and hope Sale and Kluber can improve.

 

[LogansDad]

I thought I saw he hit 97? Quibbling but hey.

I think he did, but he was sitting 94-96.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

I’m hoping that Bloom and Cora consider releasing Kluber….. just consider it. Maybe even putting Sale into the pen? I don’t know but I do think the best long term solution is to keep trying Houck and Whitlock as starters…. If it works, it addresses the biggest deficiency in the long term. Bouncing them back and forth will prevent any sort of predictive production from them.
Or…. Just say fuck it and keep them in the pen and hope Sale and Kluber can improve.

Yes, they should consider releasing Kluber for a good 10 seconds and then come to their senses. You don't sign a veteran to a FA contract and then release him after three starts. You want to think about maybe moving him to the pen for a while, I guess that's okay to consider. But you get creative, not reckless with your pitching staff, because we all know that you truly never can have too much pitching.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Hypothetical but applicable- would it be better to have a starter that pitches 1/4 of his games (assume makes it through 6 innings) at a 1.00 ERA, then half his games at a 5.00 ERA (less than 5 innings per) then follow with a 1.00 ERA for last 1/4 of games, 6 innings per start? Assume 32 starts over a season…. League average bullpen applies no matter the situation following his start.
Obviously if you can predict when he’s shitty- perfection…. But it’s impossible to.

 

[absintheofmalaise]

It looks like Whitlock has moved back over to the 1B side of the rubber. I couldn't find video of todays game, but it's the free game on mlbtv for those of us out of the NESN market.
Here's his release point today.
View attachment 63556Tampa GameView attachment 63557
Video from 2022
https://www.mlb.com/video/garrett-whitlock-ball-to-josh-donaldson-egku78?q=whitlock 2022&cp=MIXED&qt=FREETEXT&p=0
Video from Tampa this year
https://www.mlb.com/video/randy-arozarena-flies-out-sharply-to-center-fielder-rob-refsnyder?q=whitlock 2023&cp=MIXED&qt=FREETEXT&p=0
From today
https://www.mlb.com/video/garrett-whitlock-s-five-strikeout?q=Garrett Whitlock&cp=CMS_FIRST&qt=FREETEXT&p=0

edit: added video from today

 

[bosox188]

I'm not sure if this may have already been brought up between spring training and now, but it looks like Whitlock made some tweaks to his slider, and the early returns are looking pretty solid. He's taken about 3.5 mph off the slider (he's only about 1 mph down from last year's average on the fastball, so this seems more like an intentional difference) and added about 6 inches to both its horizontal and vertical movement.

Small sample size, but against the Rays he got 4 whiffs on 8 swings with it, and so far today he has 9 whiffs on 14 swings from a good Angels lineup. That's a 59% whiff rate, last year it was at 45% but he also had the benefit of pairing it with a higher velocity fastball when he was in relief. Hopefully the early returns hold and this ends up being a good adjustment for his time as a starter.

I think he's still leaving too many changeups higher than you'd want them to be, that'll catch up to him if that problem lingers.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

When will SJH show up to demand Whitlock be moved to the pen?

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

View: https://twitter.com/redsoxstats/status/1647700762007355399?s=46&t=0BmQ-9TYN7pIIfzDCoYxZA

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

When will SJH show up to demand Whitlock be moved to the pen?

I said I’d give him 5 starts.

 

[absintheofmalaise]

View: https://twitter.com/redsoxstats/status/1647700762007355399?s=46&t=0BmQ-9TYN7pIIfzDCoYxZA

I see you have me on ignore!

 

[E5 Yaz]

I see you have me on ignore!

Well, how's he going to see your disappointment?

 

[pk1627]

I said I’d give him 5 starts.

When SJH gets engaged, good things happen

 

[koufax32]

I said I’d give him 5 starts.

Now do Houck!

As much as we all would like to see someone get bumped to the pen (my own preference would be Houck) and Ort/Brasier get sent down, it appears that they both have some Jason Voorhees in them.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

I said I’d give him 5 starts.

You have to at least be pretty happy with that and I’d assume you’d be happy to be wrong and find out he ends up being a really good long term starter.
Houck on the other hand I’m not sure I see making it in the rotation but I’ve been bullish on Whitlock for a while

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Well, how's he going to see your disappointment?

Can someone tell me what Abs is saying, I have him on ignore.

 

[The Napkin]

Can someone tell me what Abs is saying, I have him on ignore.

who?

 

[LogansDad]

Can someone tell me what Abs is saying, I have him on ignore.

I could, but I am not allowed to repeat that kind of language.

 

[Heating up in the bullpen]

Three times through the rotation results

Pitcher	Date/Starts	Opp	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K
Kluber	3/30	Bal	3.1	6	5	5	2	4	4
Kluber	4/5	Pit	5.0	3	1	1	1	1	2
Kluber	4/13	TB	4.2	4	4	4	1	1	7
Kluber totals	3	13.0	13	10	10	4	6	13
Sale	4/1	Bal	3.0	7	7	7	3	2	6
Sale	4/6	Det	5.0	4	3	3	1	3	7
Sale	4/12	TB	4.0	7	6	5	1	2	6
Sale totals	3	12.0	18	16	15	5	7	19
Houck	4/2	Bal	5.0	5	3	3	2	1	5
Houck	4/8	Det	5.0	3	2	2	0	2	4
Houck	4/14	LAA	4.0	4	2	2	0	4	6
Houck totals	3	14.0	12	7	7	2	7	15
Pivetta	4/4	Pit	5.0	3	3	1	2	3	6
Pivetta	4/10	TB	5.0	3	0	0	0	2	6
Pivetta	4/15	LAA	4.0	5	6	6	1	3	4
Pivetta totals	3	14.0	11	9	9	3	8	16
Crawford	4/3	Pit	4.0	8	7	7	3	2	6
Crawford	4/9	Det	5.0	5	1	1	0	0	6
Crawford totals	2	9.0	13	8	8	3	2	12
Whitlock	4/11	TB	5.0	8	5	5	3	0	5
Whitlock	4/16	LAA	7.0	3	1	1	0	2	5
Whitlock totals	2	12.0	11	6	6	3	2	10

Starts rated
Kluber - 1 good, 2 stinkers
Sale - 1 ok, 2 stinkers
Houck - 3 ok
Pivetta - 1 good, 1 ok, 1 stinker
Crawford - 1 good, 1 stinker
Whitlock - 1 great, 1 stinker
Bello - ???

All SSS, but with Bello ready the Sox need to make a decision on the rotation. From seven starters, they've already dropped Crawford -- first optioned to AAA, then brought back as a long man (where he had an effective 3 IP appearance against TB).

Conventional wisdom says Houck will be shifted to the pen. But I wonder if they'd do something different. Sale has struggled, not surprisingly given his long time away from the mound. I think the team -- and Sale -- could be served well by dropping him into the pen for a long-relief role. Maybe take the pressure off and let him find his way, then bring him back to the rotation when his performance or the need dictates.

(Yes, they've all had their struggles. Sale stands out to me as a different case, though, given his injury lay-off.)

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

For the time being, they're going with a six man rotation. Probably will wait until their next scheduled off-day (a week from Thursday) to make a decision. Perhaps a solution will present itself in the meantime (an injury, an atrociously bad outing, a volunteer demotion, who knows?)

I think it's extremely unlikely that Sale is removed from the rotation. If reps are what he needs to fine tune his control and become more effective, I just don't see that happening in the bullpen. Not with irregular/unpredictable usage.

 

[The Gray Eagle]

The numbers from Kluber's third start are kind of the worst case scenario-- Bleier allowed two of his inherited runners to score with 2 outs. If Kluber had been left in the game and got the next guy out, he would have had 5 IP, 2 runs against Tampa.
The runs all count and he shouldn't have left the runners on base, but I think he actually pitched pretty well in that game, with 7 Ks and one walk.
If he keeps pitching like he did in his last 2 starts, he will be fine.

 

[Harry Hooper]

For the time being, they're going with a six man rotation. Probably will wait until their next scheduled off-day (a week from Thursday) to make a decision. Perhaps a solution will present itself in the meantime (an injury, an atrociously bad outing, a volunteer demotion, who knows?)

I think it's extremely unlikely that Sale is removed from the rotation. If reps are what he needs to fine tune his control and become more effective, I just don't see that happening in the bullpen. Not with irregular/unpredictable usage.

Yes, Sale gets much more run as a starter this season. To paraphrase Thoreau, "If it proves to be bad, we need to fully establish the bad-ness of it."

 

[chrisfont9]

Three times through the rotation results

Starts rated
Kluber - 1 good, 2 stinkers
Sale - 1 ok, 2 stinkers
Houck - 3 ok
Pivetta - 1 good, 1 ok, 1 stinker
Crawford - 1 good, 1 stinker
Whitlock - 1 great, 1 stinker
Bello - ???

All SSS, but with Bello ready the Sox need to make a decision on the rotation. From seven starters, they've already dropped Crawford -- first optioned to AAA, then brought back as a long man (where he had an effective 3 IP appearance against TB).

Conventional wisdom says Houck will be shifted to the pen. But I wonder if they'd do something different. Sale has struggled, not surprisingly given his long time away from the mound. I think the team -- and Sale -- could be served well by dropping him into the pen for a long-relief role. Maybe take the pressure off and let him find his way, then bring him back to the rotation when his performance or the need dictates.

(Yes, they've all had their struggles. Sale stands out to me as a different case, though, given his injury lay-off.)

This may sound crazy but why not try two piggybacks? I really don't think they can remove Houck just as he's starting to show something more as a starter, their long term interests are much better served if he and Whitlock are in the rotation. They need those reps. Everyone else but maybe Pivetta has to be there. Can't they have five starters, two piggyback starters (with some flexibility as to who does which role) and ride it out for a few turns until guys start missing turns?

SP 1: Kluber
SP2: Sale/Pivetta
SP3: Bello
SP4: Houck/Paxton
SP5: Whitlock

Or piggyback Kluber and Paxton if Kluber continues going so short.

Just an idea to buy some time.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

They’ve been short on pitchers with a five man, won’t a six man exacerbate the problem? Ultimately, they will need a lot more 5-6 inning starts, at least, to avoid burning out the pen. Although Kutter and Winck as multi-inning guys out of the pen should help.

 

[YTF]

This may sound crazy but why not try two piggybacks? I really don't think they can remove Houck just as he's starting to show something more as a starter, their long term interests are much better served if he and Whitlock are in the rotation. They need those reps. Everyone else but maybe Pivetta has to be there. Can't they have five starters, two piggyback starters (with some flexibility as to who does which role) and ride it out for a few turns until guys start missing turns?

SP 1: Kluber
SP2: Sale/Pivetta
SP3: Bello
SP4: Houck/Paxton
SP5: Whitlock

Or piggyback Kluber and Paxton if Kluber continues going so short.

Just an idea to buy some time.

I wouldn't be totally shocked to see one, I think two is too much of a commitment given the bullpen injuries.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

They’ve been short on pitchers with a five man, won’t a six man exacerbate the problem? Ultimately, they will need a lot more 5-6 inning starts, at least, to avoid burning out the pen. Although Kutter and Winck as multi-inning guys out of the pen should help.

The bolded is exactly the reason Cora gave this morning for why they're going with the 6-man for the time being.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Taking positives out of the loss- while I didn’t watch- I’m guessing Bello had some first game nerves? He seemed okay after that…. But Crawford really looked like he was great. Even outside of Troutani…. The Angels have a good lineup

 

[chrisfont9]

Taking positives out of the loss- while I didn’t watch- I’m guessing Bello had some first game nerves? He seemed okay after that…. But Crawford really looked like he was great. Even outside of Troutani…. The Angels have a good lineup

Bello missed some spots but Cora made it sound like he spent too much time throwing sinkers in, and the Angels caught on. Just a bumpy reintroduction, on a not-great weather day. He will be fine.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Taking positives out of the loss- while I didn’t watch- I’m guessing Bello had some first game nerves? He seemed okay after that…. But Crawford really looked like he was great. Even outside of Troutani…. The Angels have a good lineup

Bello got squeezed a bit, which I think messed with him a bit. He had Ward struck out on a slider down and away that the ump didn't give him. The next pitch he hit him. Two pitches later, Renfroe takes him over the Monster. The rain delay probably bailed him out and he'll be fine this weekend.

 

[johnnyfromspain]

This may sound crazy but why not try two piggybacks? I really don't think they can remove Houck just as he's starting to show something more as a starter, their long term interests are much better served if he and Whitlock are in the rotation. They need those reps. Everyone else but maybe Pivetta has to be there. Can't they have five starters, two piggyback starters (with some flexibility as to who does which role) and ride it out for a few turns until guys start missing turns?

SP 1: Kluber
SP2: Sale/Pivetta
SP3: Bello
SP4: Houck/Paxton
SP5: Whitlock

Or piggyback Kluber and Paxton if Kluber continues going so short.

Just an idea to buy some time.

Perhaps Cora already started the piggyback strategy yesterday? Crawford was excellent coming in after Bello. Might this performance make Cora consider piggybacking serioudly? I would hope so, as this would keep starting pitchers get enough work in while protecting the bullpen. It is a win-win situation.

 

[Rovin Romine]

Perhaps Cora already started the piggyback strategy yesterday? Crawford was excellent coming in after Bello. Might this performance make Cora consider piggybacking serioudly? I would hope so, as this would keep starting pitchers get enough work in while protecting the bullpen. It is a win-win situation.

This is also just using the long man effectively if you're concerned about a starter. If you don't see Crawford for 5 days, maybe it will become a pattern - but that would be the thing to look for.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

This is also just using the long man effectively if you're concerned about a starter. If you don't see Crawford for 5 days, maybe it will become a pattern - but that would be the thing to look for.

It also protects long extra innings games from exhausting the pen- especially on getaway games

 

[YTF]

Perhaps Cora already started the piggyback strategy yesterday? Crawford was excellent coming in after Bello. Might this performance make Cora consider piggybacking serioudly? I would hope so, as this would keep starting pitchers get enough work in while protecting the bullpen. It is a win-win situation.

I wouldn't read too much into yesterday. The pitch count and weather played a huge role in Bello's shortened appearance and Crawford's efficiency allowed him to pitch the final 6.1 innings. IMO it's not always going to work the way that it did yesterday with Crawford and depending how many starters that you're looking to employ this with you may well have handcuffed your bullpen.

 

[Max Power]

This is also just using the long man effectively if you're concerned about a starter. If you don't see Crawford for 5 days, maybe it will become a pattern - but that would be the thing to look for.

You're not going to see him for 5 days no matter what. He pitched a full starter's game yesterday and needs a full starter's rest.

 

[chrisfont9]

Well all of this depends on what their thinking is long term. If the point is to see what Crawford and Winckowski can be as starters, then like Bello, Houck and Whitlock they need to stay stretched out and on a regular rotation, even if it's as piggybackers. Now we are talking 9 guys for 5/6 spots. If they care mostly about winning this year, then you make a bunch of them relievers, but everything else Bloom does seems more like a long-term plan. Why pass on Eovaldi and Wacha but then keep Paxton and sign Kluber? Because they don't want to block any of these other guys beyond this year, or maybe even beyond June. I wouldn't be surprised if they get Paxton locked in and look to flip him for more lottery tickets. Kluber too could be a deadline flip. This seems pretty consistent with Bloom's approach, and we should find out their thinking very soon.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

I don’t know that they necessarily were trying to make sure that Crawford and Winckowski weren’t blocked, they just prefer short term deals and Kluber was willing to take one, Wacha and Eovaldi were not. In the same vein, I don’t think that the one year deals to Kike and Duvall means that they wanted to make sure there was a clear lane for Duran and whomever in a year.

In regards to Winckowski and Crawford, they are really hamstrung with the 40-man right now. They have one reliever on the 40 who isn’t in Boston, and they just acquired him like 24 hours ago. So those guys working out of the Boston pen may be at least in part out of necessity and not preference.

 

[chrisfont9]

Well more Whitlock and Houck than Winckowski and Crawford, to me not blocking them, and then insisting all winter that they are starters, is why they didn't commit to anyone longer term.

I'm starting to dream of a 2024 rotation where all of these guys and Bello are the foundation of a young, controllable rotation to which they can add a frontline free agent (Urias?). Probably not all five of them work out great, and Sale is probably around through next year, but hey, maybe he revives his old self for a while. Anyway, this one part of the roster has material to work with, but it would behoove the Sox to get all of them regular rotation turns if possible.

 

[Rovin Romine]

You're not going to see him for 5 days no matter what. He pitched a full starter's game yesterday and needs a full starter's rest.

Good point.

 

[The Gray Eagle]

The rotation has an ERA over 11 in the first inning this year. They really need to cut that crap out and stop putting the team in a hole almost every game. If they don't start putting up a lot of early zeroes, the losses will start piling up.

 

[absintheofmalaise]

Looking at the 11.65 1st inning ERA a little more on B-Ref. Using OPS, the first and fifth innings are the killers. With the second, fourth, seventh not far behind. The 7-9 is better, but obviously can be improved on. So roughly, 5 out of nine innings the pitching has sucked overall with Whitlock, Kluber, and Kluber perfoming best so far.
Game log splits

Here's the 1st inning by pitcher.

 

[LogansDad]

Obviously a SSS, but man a .417 BABIP in the 1st inning is so, so bad. I am not going to come in here and try to say that the pitching has been awesome or anything, because they haven't, but when your defense is barely making the play on half the balls you allow in the field of play, it isn't exactly doing the pitching any favors.

I want to hope that Mondesi gets healthy, Kiké can move to CF and the defense can improve. I really thought that Kiké was going to be good at SS, but he's been a nearly unmitigated disaster. Yoshida has been fine in LF, from my eye, and I think Verdugo is improving every day, but the middle infield has been atrocious. Arroyo's limited range, Kiké's weird reads and off balance throws, and Casas' inability to help them out by making timely scoops have led to giving the opponents a lot of extra outs, and it has only been two weeks.

Without improved defense, though, this pitching staff stands no chance.