One thing I know about middle middle pitches is you get away with them more often if you're Pedro 1999 than if you're Pedro 2004.
2023 Starting Rotation
- Thread starter Rovin Romine
- Start date
Cora was playing coy after the game, talking about starting Sale on Wednesday and Kluber on Thursday by explaining “we’ll have to see what we do on Tuesday” with a smile.
Looks like these next two games are the final auditions for the 4th starter job. (I think Pivetta is locked into the 5th slot.) Houck has the advantage over Crawford from their first starts.
Or maybe they already know what they want to do regardless of these first couple starts. It’s possible they liked enough of what they saw from Crawford last year — combined with liking Houck out of the pen for 2-3 innings at a time — that they roll with Crawford.
Or maybe they really want to give Houck a chance to show he can go through a lineup three times — combined with wanting to see if Crawford can play up in shorter outings the way Winckowski is — and they roll with Houck.
Either way, we’ll know something in about a week.
We may be talking about just one, maybe two starts. Then Bello should be ready. Then when Paxton is ready, maybe around the end of the month, they have to decide what to do with all of these guys should they decide to go with Sale, Kluber, Whitlock, Bello, and Paxton. If anybody is injured at that time Pivetta stays in the rotation. I think the plan was to have Houck pitch high leverage innings out of the pen but injuries forced them to use him as a starter for now.
So I think they'll essentially use those 6 pitchers as starters with one of them, likely Pivetta, pitching out of the pen if all of them are healthy at once and nobody needs extra rest.
So I think they'll essentially use those 6 pitchers as starters with one of them, likely Pivetta, pitching out of the pen if all of them are healthy at once and nobody needs extra rest.
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Guessing that Crawford may wind up in Worcester as part of a numbers crunch (assuming no one's injured). They'll need 3 spots for Whitlock, Bello and Paxton. Ort, Kelly and Crawford all have options. So does Winckowski, but he seems less likely.
I highly doubt that we can count on Paxton at all at this point, or any point really. He has a long track record of not staying healthy.
I agree as well with the assessment of Sale, Kluber, Whitlock, Bello, Paxton if healthy and Pivetta. I just think that Pivetta as a 5th starter is exactly what is needed for this team. He will pitch 5 or 6 innings and give up anywhere from 3-6 runs. He is solid to below average but he keeps the team in games and takes the bump every 5th day. Removing that anchor in the middle of a ton of injury risk (Sale, Kluber, Paxton) and development related performance risk (Whitlock, Bello) is unwise. I think he keeps taking his turn whether the other guys are "healthy" or not because for Kluber and Paxton and to a certain degree Sale, skipping a start every once in a while is ideal for their health.
I agree as well with the assessment of Sale, Kluber, Whitlock, Bello, Paxton if healthy and Pivetta. I just think that Pivetta as a 5th starter is exactly what is needed for this team. He will pitch 5 or 6 innings and give up anywhere from 3-6 runs. He is solid to below average but he keeps the team in games and takes the bump every 5th day. Removing that anchor in the middle of a ton of injury risk (Sale, Kluber, Paxton) and development related performance risk (Whitlock, Bello) is unwise. I think he keeps taking his turn whether the other guys are "healthy" or not because for Kluber and Paxton and to a certain degree Sale, skipping a start every once in a while is ideal for their health.
Brazier and Ort are lined up for DFAs if/when we get to the point of adding Mssrs. Whitlock, Bello, and Paxton.
I’m pretty sure Brasier is the baseball equivalent to The Revenant. I’ll believe he’s gone when he’s gone…
But more likely he’ll still be throwing pitches in Fenway in September- hopefully October even.
View: https://twitter.com/byJulianMack/status/1644752342904983552?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Garrett Whitlock is in the clubhouse and said he’s pitching Tuesday at Tampa.
Guessing Crawford is optioned back to Woostah after his start tomorrow.
Garrett Whitlock is in the clubhouse and said he’s pitching Tuesday at Tampa.
Guessing Crawford is optioned back to Woostah after his start tomorrow.
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I think Houck likely gets 2 more times to prove his narr wrong but at this point Im feeling it’s unlikely. That said, Please give us a 3-4 inning bullpen ace!
How would his future usage look? 2 innings with a 2 day break? 3 day? Combine him with Winchowski and Crawford doing 2-3 innings in a rotation and that looks possibly dominant
How would his future usage look? 2 innings with a 2 day break? 3 day? Combine him with Winchowski and Crawford doing 2-3 innings in a rotation and that looks possibly dominant
He had a pretty remarkable 5th today. 6 pitches. I was happy to see him attempt the 6th even though they were coming around for the third time...up big, it was the right time to see if he could do it.
I agree. I thought the decision to remove him before the inning started was a massive misjudgment.
I agree with Walt in Maryland (and others) that Crawford likely ends up in Worcester. He might be a better option to keep in Boston in the bullpen, but I'm guessing that they'll want to keep him stretched out to start, since any of the starters could go down at any time.
I also agree with your idea of the rotation of 2-3 inning relievers. Winckowski has looked good in that role. Kelly went 2 scoreless today. Houck would make a third guy who could reliably give you a couple clean middle innings.
Assuming the starters can keep games close, I really like the idea of having dominant middle relievers to get the game to the back end of the bullpen. So we're looking at something like:
Starters (5): Kluber, Sale, Whitlock, Bello, Pivetta
Multi-inning Middles (3): Houck, Kelly, Winckowski
Hi-lev 7-9 (4): Bleier, Schreiber, Martin, Jansen
Lo-lev (2): Brasier, Ort
This works until Paxton is ready to go. What happens then? Which of the starters gets bumped? Or do they go with a 6-man rotation? Hopefully this is the situation when (if) Paxton is ready, and not that Paxton has to replace an injured or ineffective starter.
Edit: Sorry, I forgot the 13 pitcher rule. When Bello is activated, Ort or Brasier has to go.
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What a difference a turn through the rotation makes in starters ERA. After the first time through…. Pivetta had the best start, now 4 starts later and it was no questions asked the weakest.
Paxton went 3 IP for the WooSox today. 58 pitches (34 strikes -- 59%), 2 H, 2 BB, 3 K, 0 R.
Maybe three more starts to get him stretched out and ready?
Maybe three more starts to get him stretched out and ready?
Shitty loss yesterday being shut out. I was only able to follow it by game day updates on my phone but I’ll take the positive here- Pivetta, as the back end rotation guy, is looking good. The rotation has put a successful full turn through. Anyone who watched have thoughts? The discussion on food offerings at Fenway is just so gripping….
First time through the rotation:
- Kluber: 3.1 ip, 6 h, 5 r, 5 er, 4 bb, 4 k
- Sale: 3.0 ip, 7 h, 7 r, 7 er, 2 bb, 6 k
- Houck: 5.0 ip, 5 h, 3 r, 3 er, 1 bb, 5 k
- Crawford: 4.0 ip, 8 h, 7 r, 7 er, 2 bb, 6 k
- Pivetta: 5.0 ip, 3 h, 3 r, 1 er, 3 bb, 6 k
TOTAL: 20.1 ip, 29 h, 25 r, 23 er, 12 bb, 27 k, 10.18 era, 2.02 whip, 11.95 k/9
Second time through the rotation:
- Kluber: 5.0 ip, 3 h, 1 r, 1 er, 1 bb, 2 k
- Sale: 5.0 ip, 4 h, 3 r, 3 er, 3 bb, 7 k
- Houck: 5.0 ip, 3 h, 2 r, 2 er, 2 bb, 4 k
- Crawford: 5.0 ip, 5 h, 1 r, 1 er, 0 bb, 6 k
- Pivetta: 5.0 ip, 3 h, 0 r, 0 er, 2 bb, 6 k
TOTAL: 25.0 ip, 18 h, 7 r, 7 er, 8 bb, 25 k, 2.52 era, 1.04 whip, 9.00 k/9
So a LOT better the second time through the rotation. Of course, when the team hits a ton, the pitching gets shelled, and when the pitching is really good, the bats go silent.
-sigh-
- Kluber: 3.1 ip, 6 h, 5 r, 5 er, 4 bb, 4 k
- Sale: 3.0 ip, 7 h, 7 r, 7 er, 2 bb, 6 k
- Houck: 5.0 ip, 5 h, 3 r, 3 er, 1 bb, 5 k
- Crawford: 4.0 ip, 8 h, 7 r, 7 er, 2 bb, 6 k
- Pivetta: 5.0 ip, 3 h, 3 r, 1 er, 3 bb, 6 k
TOTAL: 20.1 ip, 29 h, 25 r, 23 er, 12 bb, 27 k, 10.18 era, 2.02 whip, 11.95 k/9
Second time through the rotation:
- Kluber: 5.0 ip, 3 h, 1 r, 1 er, 1 bb, 2 k
- Sale: 5.0 ip, 4 h, 3 r, 3 er, 3 bb, 7 k
- Houck: 5.0 ip, 3 h, 2 r, 2 er, 2 bb, 4 k
- Crawford: 5.0 ip, 5 h, 1 r, 1 er, 0 bb, 6 k
- Pivetta: 5.0 ip, 3 h, 0 r, 0 er, 2 bb, 6 k
TOTAL: 25.0 ip, 18 h, 7 r, 7 er, 8 bb, 25 k, 2.52 era, 1.04 whip, 9.00 k/9
So a LOT better the second time through the rotation. Of course, when the team hits a ton, the pitching gets shelled, and when the pitching is really good, the bats go silent.
-sigh-
K/9 is down but BB/9 way down. I’ll take it. Bullpen generally looking good too.
Yeah… seems like the offense is still playing station to station and relying on the big HR to score…. Which boils down to hoping Devers can be up (and not K). Casas will come around. Turner should improve. The loss of Duvall hurts.
Dugo and Masa are fine but Kiké and Arroyo and aggregate C are worrisome.
But it’s a starting rotation thread…. And it’s looking good. Another turn through looking like this will be good for the general seasons outlook. My pick for 84 wins and 3WC spot still feels good
Really excited to watch Whitlock pitch tonight.
How he and Bello (and to a lesser extent, Houck) perform this year in the rotation are going to be two of the major ways I'm gauging a successful season vs a big red flag for the future of the franchise, at least in the medium term. it was great to see him looking sharp in the minors as he got ready for this start.
As someone whom doesn't really think this team is built to be a real contender, good progression from those two, and having them look like future cornerstones of the rotation are quite possibly the most important facets to this season in my perspective. Casas and Yoshida are two others, but this thread is about the rotation and the first "big start" for the present, but more importantly the future of the rotation, starts tonight.
How he and Bello (and to a lesser extent, Houck) perform this year in the rotation are going to be two of the major ways I'm gauging a successful season vs a big red flag for the future of the franchise, at least in the medium term. it was great to see him looking sharp in the minors as he got ready for this start.
As someone whom doesn't really think this team is built to be a real contender, good progression from those two, and having them look like future cornerstones of the rotation are quite possibly the most important facets to this season in my perspective. Casas and Yoshida are two others, but this thread is about the rotation and the first "big start" for the present, but more importantly the future of the rotation, starts tonight.
I think Crawford could be a dominant arm in the pen but, as with Whitlock, it makes sense to give these guys a real long opportunity as a starter and he looked great (against Detroit).
But if he can continue to do that in AAA while developing another pitch… he’s also someone else to think about as a long term part of the future rotation.
I think both he and Winckowski have the potential to be solid 3-5 starters in the future, and I also think that, while they can help the pen right now, the organization is better served next year and beyond by letting them keep working on being starters in AAA.
I think the moon is the limit for Bello, and he would probably be a #2 on a lot of teams right now. Whitlock and Houck both look like good starters, especially for a team that has a deep pen.
I don't hate the idea of a Bello/Whitlock/Houck/Winckowski/(insert Mata/Crawford/or a cheap free agent pickup here) rotation in two years.
It would be hard to overstate how excited I am for the future of this organization, though.
Whitlock was terrible tonight. Not sure if it was rust or Tampa being ready for him but this was a poor performance. Only positive was zero walks but given the 3 HRs allowed I’d rather have a few walks than meatballs over the plate.
Eveyone knows my position on where Whitlock should be, I won’t rehash it. I will say I’m very curious to see how much time the club gives him to get effective as a starter before they consider moving him back to the pen to become a dominant reliever again.
Eveyone knows my position on where Whitlock should be, I won’t rehash it. I will say I’m very curious to see how much time the club gives him to get effective as a starter before they consider moving him back to the pen to become a dominant reliever again.
I was at the game in person. He actually didn't look bad. He was running into problems when throwing the sinker. For whatever reason, he was leaving it up in the zone and the Rays took advantage. I don't recall that ever being a problem for him, so I'm hoping it was just some first start back jitters and he can work on getting the ball down.
I mean, leaving a sinker up in the zone is the very definition of pitching terribly, right? You simply can't be doing that as a major league pitcher.
That sounds more like a bad outing than something that will be consistent problem. Would he not have done that in a 2 inning stint?
Every major league pitcher has probably left at least one sinker up in the zone at one point in their respective careers. I don't think we can draw any conclusions from this one start.
I think the time they give him will be very contextual - it'll depend on how both he does and how the other starters do. If you got Sale, Paxton, Kluber, Pivetta, Bello firing on all cylinders with Mata pounding on the door, the question of what to do with Houck and Whitlock seems obvious, especially if they keep trending as they have been (SSS) as starters.
OTOH, If Whitlock starts notching consistent quality starts and there are only 4 other effective starters, it'll be equally obvious.
He was leaving nearly every sinker up in the zone. It was legtimately a terrible performance:
View: https://twitter.com/redsoxstats/status/1645940570731282432?s=20
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Well the idea would be that in a 2 inning stint he wouldn't need to pace himself and thus can bear down on every pitch.
I don't know the actual problem with him last night except that he was throwing meatballs. It's pretty disconcerting that the Sox have decided he's going to be counted on heavily as a rotation guy and yet the results from him as a starter haven't been very good. He has a career ERA of 4.70 as a starter, WHIP of 1.3 and allows an OPS of .785 against, which are all far worse than his numbers as a reliever (2.24 ERA, .994 WHIP, .603 OPS against). Small sample sizes do apply somewhat but the numbers are pretty dire right now.
The Sox are making a very public bet that he will be more valuable as a starter than as a reliever. So far that bet has not paid off whatsoever. He's 27 years old, he's no kid any more. I agree with Trotsky that they'll give him 5 starts or so, but if the results aren't there then they need to take a hard look at their decision-making process.
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What I meant was is there was actually some positives to come out of his start. You're right it was a bad performance. He was doing a good job keeping pitches in the zone (for the most part). I think he had something like 70-80% first pitch strikes. He was getting swinges and misses on both the changeup and slider. I think he'll be much better moving forward.
While understanding and agreeing that last night was... not good... I really hope that they give Whitlock, Bello (and Houck) extended looks in the rotation this season. For Whitlock and Houck, specifically, we have some data points to show that they are already capable of being either excellent or pretty darn useful bullpen arms, respectively, and would come in pretty cheap in such a role. This team has question mark upon question mark in the rotation and doesn't have much in the minors - at least in terms of players the prospect industry (for whatever that's worth, TINSTAAPP, etc) thinks are going to be first division starters.
The 2023 team was built exceptionally well if the goal is to have payroll flexibility in 2025-2030, but built pretty poorly if the goal was to contend for an AL East division title or making the World Series (in my opinion) in 2023. So with that as the back drop, I really hope that the young pitchers in the 2023 rotation (or Worcester) are given ample starts in the rotation to see if they can develop into long term core starting pitchers. In the case of Whitlock and Houck, we already know they can be "core" bullpen arms, but obviously having core pieces of the starting rotation would be much better.
I'm pretty sure I went with 79-83 in the "prediction" thread, but really I don't care about the +/- of two or three games (missing the playoffs by finishing 76-86 or missing the playoffs by finishing 82-78 is irrelevant to me). Spend the year trying to let the young pitchers develop the necessary tools to become effective starters as really I don't think there is a lot to lose relative to the season, but there is relative to the next contending window.
If they don't show enough improvement to believe they can do that, they slot into the bullpen for the 2025-30 window and we can (hopefully) acquire some core starting pitching in the trade / FA market.
The 2023 team was built exceptionally well if the goal is to have payroll flexibility in 2025-2030, but built pretty poorly if the goal was to contend for an AL East division title or making the World Series (in my opinion) in 2023. So with that as the back drop, I really hope that the young pitchers in the 2023 rotation (or Worcester) are given ample starts in the rotation to see if they can develop into long term core starting pitchers. In the case of Whitlock and Houck, we already know they can be "core" bullpen arms, but obviously having core pieces of the starting rotation would be much better.
I'm pretty sure I went with 79-83 in the "prediction" thread, but really I don't care about the +/- of two or three games (missing the playoffs by finishing 76-86 or missing the playoffs by finishing 82-78 is irrelevant to me). Spend the year trying to let the young pitchers develop the necessary tools to become effective starters as really I don't think there is a lot to lose relative to the season, but there is relative to the next contending window.
If they don't show enough improvement to believe they can do that, they slot into the bullpen for the 2025-30 window and we can (hopefully) acquire some core starting pitching in the trade / FA market.
A couple of minor quibbles/look-a-heads. First off, I think this is a competitive team, but that we're seeing what is now the typical Cora-slow/non-urgent start to season. That said, toddling along at .500 isn't a disastrous slow start by any means, so we'll see what happens in the next week.
As far as Houck and Whitlock go, they're both 26 and will turn 27 during the season. They both undeniably have stuff that plays at the ML level, and they have both enjoyed bullpen success with it.
Whitlock is signed with team options through 2028, and at ludicrous prices for a starter, with the tail end maybe being pricey for a non-elite reliever. I think you have to explore him being a starter if you can.
Houck becomes a FA in 2028 who (at the moment) will be going through the arb process in absence of a long term deal. If he can extend his effectiveness as a starter past the 5th, he'd be top tier. I think you also have to explore him being a starter if you can.
Interestingly, that exploration dovetails perfectly with the injuries to Bello and Paxton, plus the inconsistency (SSS) of Crawford.
For the Future, control least to greatest:
Paxton: FA in 2024 (some goodwill toward club FWIW.)
Kluber: club option 2014 or FA in 2024.
Pivetta: arb 2024, FA in 2025.
Sale: club option 2025 or FA in 2025.
Houck: FA in 2028.
Whitlock: club option 2027 and 2028, or FA.
Bello: under control for 2028+
Winckowski: under control for 2028+
Crawford: under control for 2028+
Mata: under control for 2028+
You can throw Walter, Murphy, Peralez, Gonzalez, etc. in the 2028 +bucket. Obviously they're not all going to pan out as starters, but we have a bunch of arms on the cusp and others on the way up.
Promising news on Bello, who threw 6 innings on 80 pitches last night for the Woo Sox.
https://nesn.com/2023/04/red-soxs-brayan-bello-hit-innings-goal-in-triple-a-rehab-start/
1 run, 4 hits, no walks, 4 Ks. 50 of 80 pitches for strikes, hit 97 mph.
He should be in the big league rotation soon.
Too bad he can't hit lefties.
https://nesn.com/2023/04/red-soxs-brayan-bello-hit-innings-goal-in-triple-a-rehab-start/
1 run, 4 hits, no walks, 4 Ks. 50 of 80 pitches for strikes, hit 97 mph.
He should be in the big league rotation soon.
Too bad he can't hit lefties.
So who do we think Bello replaces? Feels like it’s gotta be Houck, which is too bad since he has pitched pretty well.
It won't be Sale, Kluber, or Pivetta. That leaves Houck or Whitlock.
I'd guess Houck to the bullpen with Ort optioned down to AAA. Bello just pitched on the same day as Whitlock, so we'd see another Houck start regardless.
But we'd have: Sale/Kluber/Pivetta/Whitlock/Bello.
Paxton's the interesting one: He pitched 3 convincing innings on Sunday, and has a rehab start with Wor scheduled for this Friday. He might need one or two more starts, but eventually he'll have to be brought up.
Barring injury or an awful string of starts for Sale/Kluber/Pivetta/Bello, or a run of great starts by Whitlock, I think it's most likely Whitlock goes back into the bullpen at that point.
Sale is obviously going nowhere until/ if he injures himself. But I hope that if Kluber and Paxton are just okay, that Bloom is willing to cut bait. Probably by the time that decision would need to be made though, they'd likely be far out of a WC spot and those two could possibly turn into a decent return in a trade. Hopefully it doesn't come to that and I'm still optimistic about this team.
If they are looking to dump Kluber or Pivetta or Paxton, it’s likely that those guys aren’t pitching well. I guess there’s a scenario where one of them is doing well, but the team is out of it- but it’s sort of difficult to envision a team that has too much pitching but isn’t it contention, it just doesn’t really happen especially in an era of expanded playoffs where under .500 last place teams are still “in it”.
If there’s a way to turn Pivetta into a bat that could help, that should be done, but seems unlikely.
If there’s a way to turn Pivetta into a bat that could help, that should be done, but seems unlikely.
They won't stick with bad starters forever, even if they're vets. Witness Garret Richards.
I'd agree that if he could be traded in a couple of weeks (when Bello and Paxton are up, hopefully) for a significant RHH who could slot into SS or CF, that would be ideal. Preferably one under control for a couple of years. But those kinds of available players are thin on the ground. So yes. Unlikely. Especially if one considers the replacement players due back at or before mid-season (Duvall, Mondesi, then Story later.)
I doubt any of Pivetta, Kluber or Paxton would return better than a B or C prospect. The latter two have no future value; the former has two seasons of control left but hasn't looked like anything more than a league-average arm as a starter. Maybe the FO can get more if teams get desperate for rotation depth, but that's about all the purpose those three will serve; no contender is adding them with an eye toward a division push or a postseason rotation spot.
Earlier today I saw it mentioned that Whitlock was throwing last night from the 3rd base side of the rubber and in 2022 he was on the 1st base side of the rubber, so I checked it out. First are two videos. The first is from 2022 and the second from last night.
https://www.mlb.com/video/garrett-whitlock-ball-to-josh-donaldson-egku78?q=whitlock 2022&cp=MIXED&qt=FREETEXT&p=0
https://www.mlb.com/video/randy-arozarena-flies-out-sharply-to-center-fielder-rob-refsnyder?q=whitlock 2023&cp=MIXED&qt=FREETEXT&p=0
You can see the difference in his release point on Baseball Savant. I just used sinkers since that seems to be a problem based on posts here.
Last night
2022
In 2021 his release point is similar to 2022, but not as much height on some pitches and wider. Some more like last night.
I have no idea why he changed his position on the rubber, but he should go back to the 1st base side in his next side session to see if that angle helps bring his sinkers back down in the zone. I know nothing of physics, but Whitlock throwing from the 3B side looks like it's making him leave the sinkers up in the zone since he's going more across his body than when he throws from the 1B side and he can bear down more on those pitches. Easy fix if it works.
My thought was Jo Addell. Angels need another starter and are in GFIN mode, Addell needs a fresh start. Trade would probably favor Angels but would save some salary and add a lottery ticket.
Have the Sox had any kind of success with this type of player, though? I don’t have much confidence that they can get the most out of a failed prospect like Adell.
Dodgers look like another team that could be in need of SP help; Grove has been terrible and Syndergaard not great either.
Granted, it’s not even Tax Day, so doubt any deals are going to be happening soon.