2023 Starting Rotation
- Thread starter Rovin Romine
- Start date
I guess Bello will be back for his next start in 4 days? Kind of hard to imagine having a newborn in the middle of the season, but maybe it works out just fine.
Why is it hard to imagine? Feels like half the team has had a baby this year.
Ha, fair enough. I imagine they have more help than most of us normal people.
Bumping the State of the Sox post from upthread:
The white text is the original proposed schedule for how the team might fare in the 3 starter/injury era.
Greens are wins, Reds are losses, indents are notes and roster moves.
Innings are 1(ish) with starter and significant long/short appearances noted.
July 14 @ Cubs Bello - Bello (6), Winckowski, Bernardino, Scott, Jansen (.1).
July 15 @ Cubs Paxton - Paxton (3), Scott, Rodriguez, Jaques, Walter (2).
Scott DFA'd (OAK), Jake Faria up from AAA, stretched out as a starter, last pitched 7/5.
July 16 @ Cubs Crawford - Crawford (6), Jacques, Faria (2 - 65 pitches).
Faria DFA'd (Worcester), Bleier off the IL.
July 17 @ A’s Bullpen/Pivetta - Bernardino (2), Pivetta (6), Martin.
July 18 @ A’s Bullpen - Jacques, Murphy (4.2), Rodriguez, Bleier.
July 19 @ A’s Bello - Bello (4), Rodriguez, Winckowski (2), Jansen.
July 20 off
July 21 vs NYM Paxton - Crawford (4) Suspended Game due to Rain. (score 4-3 Mets)
Bello on Paternity List, Garza up from AAA.
Story and Kluber begin rehab assignments.
July 22 vs NYM (cont.) Jacques, Bernardino, Bleier (2) Martin.
July 22 vs NYM Crawford - Paxton (6), Winckowski, Pivetta, Garza, Jansen (.1).
July 23 vs NYM Bullpen/Pivetta - Bernardino (1.2), Murphy (3.2), Winckowski, Rodriguez, Jacques, Martin, Walter.
July 24 off
Garza and Walter to AAA. (note: very light use of Walter recently.)
Schreiber off the IL. Bello off the Paternity List
July 25 vs ATL Bello - Schreiber, Pivetta (5), Bleier, Martin, Rodriguez (2).
July 26 vs ATL Paxton
July 27 off
July 28 @ SF Crawford
July 29 @ SF Bullpen/Pivetta
July 30 @ SF Bello
July 31 @ SEA Paxton
Aug 1 @ SEA Bullpen
(Note: Trade Deadline)
Aug 2 @ SEA Crawford
Aug 3 off
Aug 4 vs TOR Bullpen/Pivetta
Aug 5 vs TOR Bello
Aug 6 vs TOR Paxton
Aug 7 vs KC Crawford
Aug 8 vs KC Bullpen
Aug 9 vs KC Bullpen/Pivetta
Aug 10 vs KC Bello
Aug 11 vs DET Paxton
Aug 12 vs DET Crawford
Aug 13 vs DET Bullpen/Pivetta
Aug 14 off
(Note: Story, Sale, Houck in "mid august" possible return?)
Aug 15 @ WSN
Aug 16 @ WSN
Aug 17 @ WSN
(Note: the Gauntlet starts)
Aug 18 @ NYY
Aug 19 @ NYY
Aug 20 @ NYY
Aug 21 @ HOU
Aug 22 @ HOU
Aug 23 @ HOU
Aug 24 @ HOU
Aug 25 vs LAD
Aug 26 vs LAD
Aug 27 vs LAD
Aug 28 vs HOU
Aug 29 vs HOU
Aug 30 vs HOU
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Because they're a division rival, above .500 (near identical record to the Sox) and always give the Sox trouble no matter where the teams are in the standings or how well/poorly they might be playing otherwise.
Judge will likely be back too…. I’m puzzling they’ll punt or buy. They’re deeply flawed but they have the prospect depth and pockets to fix anything
Given that today is a bullpen game with Bernardino opening, do we know why Cora burned Pivetta for an inning with a lead last night?
I saw that Bello is being pushed back to Wednesday and Tuesday will be another bullpen game. Maybe the plan now is to use Murphy/Walter/etc. today and Pivetta Tuesday.
The schedule came from a proposal for how a 3 man plus Pivetta might unfold if the starters were all kept on 5 days rest, given the then-expected return of various pitchers. At the time the Yankees were a bit tougher. But as RHF pointed out, they're not pushovers by any means, and Judge might be back by then.
So, given that today is a bullpen game with Bernardino opening, do we know why Cora burned Pivetta for an inning with a lead last night?
(Personally I suspect his non-answer is because he skated on thin ice in the Cubs series, fucked up the A's series, and thought losing 2 to the Mets on top of that is more or less would create an "all hands on deck" situation.)
As Cora said, they felt they needed him for that inning. I mean, it's right there in the quote.
Wanted to get the win. Didn't want to go back to any of the guys who had pitched earlier in the day and didn't trust the back end guys to close out a 5 run lead (as we saw). I'd imagine Pivetta can still go an inning or two today?
That's not really an answer to the question though. Of course Cora thought he needed to use Pivetta - he actually used Pivetta.
The actual question is, "Why Pivetta given that he would have been the presumptive long-man today and has proved to be flat out excellent in that role?"
Because it's effectively using today's starter (or 6 inning guy) for an inning in last night's game.
We'll see.
Pivetta only threw 15 pitches. is that really enough to move today's status from "6 innings" to "unavailable"?
Let's say he can go 3.
Bernardino 1
Murphy 2
Pivetta 3
Wink 1
Martin 1
Jansen 1
And then off day tomorrow (and Thursday).
Let's say he can go 3.
Bernardino 1
Murphy 2
Pivetta 3
Wink 1
Martin 1
Jansen 1
And then off day tomorrow (and Thursday).
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No, I would think he could still go 3-4. With the off day tomorrow, Winck, Martin, and Kenley should all be able to go one. So they'd probably have to patch an inning together IF all goes to plan. That might not be the plan, but it certainly could be.
I don't have a problem with moving Pivetta to Tuesday against the Braves -- we'll need a strong performance from him and Bello to get a win or two from Atlanta.
Jacques, Bernardino, Bleier and Martin each worked in the completion of the suspended game. When Cora said that it was a long day and where they were in the bullpen at that point, that's what he's talking about. Bernardino and Martin weren't going to pitch in the night game, and Bleier worked 2 innings, so he probably wasn't going to go.
The only real option to dipping into bottom tier of the pen was to have Winck pitch a second inning ... which might have made him unavailable tonight.
Cora likely figured that to get a clean inning from Pivetta in the eighth leaves the Mets with only three outs against someone from the back end of the staff, with Jansen available to bail them out if needed ... which is what happened.
If Garza or whoever had come in and mucked it up in the eighth, the Mets had more outs to play with to try to come back.
Pivetta pitching the eighth shortened the game. They needed the win after the suspended game loss, so Cora decided to utilize the best pitcher available to him.
it's an easily defensible decision.
The only real option to dipping into bottom tier of the pen was to have Winck pitch a second inning ... which might have made him unavailable tonight.
Cora likely figured that to get a clean inning from Pivetta in the eighth leaves the Mets with only three outs against someone from the back end of the staff, with Jansen available to bail them out if needed ... which is what happened.
If Garza or whoever had come in and mucked it up in the eighth, the Mets had more outs to play with to try to come back.
Pivetta pitching the eighth shortened the game. They needed the win after the suspended game loss, so Cora decided to utilize the best pitcher available to him.
it's an easily defensible decision.
I think this is the main reason they're going this direction.
View: https://twitter.com/redsoxstats/status/1682928521444769792
View: https://twitter.com/redsoxstats/status/1682928521444769792
Joe Posnanski included this in his Friday column.
Best winning percentage when leading going into the sixth:
Best winning percentage when leading going into the sixth:
- Orioles, .930
- Red Sox, .917
- Phillies, .897
- Dodgers, .891
- Reds, .868
Bumping the State of the Sox post from upthread:
The white text is the original proposed schedule for how the team might fare in the 3 starter/injury era.
Greens are wins, Reds are losses, indents are notes and roster moves.
Innings are 1(ish) with starter and significant long/short appearances noted.
Bold is most pivotal pitcher, good in a win or bad in a loss (my subjective reading.)
July 14 @ Cubs Bello - Bello (6), Winckowski, Bernardino, Scott, Jansen (.1).
July 15 @ Cubs Paxton - Paxton (3), Scott, Rodriguez, Jaques, Walter (2).
Scott DFA'd (OAK), Jake Faria up from AAA, stretched out as a starter, last pitched 7/5.
July 16 @ Cubs Crawford - Crawford (6), Jacques, Faria (2 - 65 pitches).
Faria DFA'd (Worcester), Bleier off the IL.
July 17 @ A’s Bullpen/Pivetta - Bernardino (2), Pivetta (6), Martin.
July 18 @ A’s Bullpen - Jacques, Murphy (4.2), Rodriguez, Bleier.
July 19 @ A’s Bello - Bello (4), Rodriguez, Winckowski (2), Jansen.
July 20 off
July 21 vs NYM Paxton - Crawford (4) Suspended Game due to Rain. (score 4-3 Mets)
Bello on Paternity List, Garza up from AAA.
Story and Kluber begin rehab assignments.
July 22 vs NYM (cont.) Jacques, Bernardino, Bleier (2), Martin.
July 22 vs NYM Crawford - Paxton (6), Winckowski, Pivetta, Garza, Jansen (.1).
July 23 vs NYM Bullpen/Pivetta - Bernardino (1.2), Murphy (3.2), Winckowski, Rodriguez, Jacques, Martin, Walter.
July 24 off
Garza and Walter to AAA. (note: very light use of Walter recently.)
Schreiber off the IL. Bello off the Paternity List
July 25 vs ATL Bello - Schreiber, Pivetta (5), Bleier, Martin, Rodriguez (2).
Kluber begins rehab assignment.
Story begins rehab assignment.
July 26 vs ATL Paxton - Bello (6), Jacques, Schreiber, Bernardino (.1), Jansen.
July 27 off
July 28 @ SF Crawford - Crawford (5.2), Bernardino (.1), Winckowski, Martin, Jansen.
Jacques to AAA.
Llovera (acquired from SFG) called up.
July 29 @ SF Bullpen/Pivetta - Paxton (5), Bleier, Llovera, Jansen.
July 30 @ SF Bello - Bernardino, Schreiber (2), Murphy (3.1), Winckowski (1.2), Bleier, Martin, Llovera.
Jacques called up.
Rodriguez to 15 day IL (hip), retroactive to the 29th.)
July 31 @ SEA Paxton - Pivetta (7.1), Jacques.
Aug 1 @ SEA Bullpen - Bello (6), Martin, Winckowski, Jansen.
Sale begins rehab assignment at AAA.
(Note: Trade Deadline)
Aug 2 @ SEA Crawford - Crawford (5), Schreiber, Bleier, Llovera.
Aug 3 off
Aug 4 vs TOR Bullpen/Pivetta - Paxton (5), Llovera, Jacques, Bleier.
Houck begins rehab assignment at AAA.
Aug 5 vs TOR Bello - Schreiber, Pivetta (4), Bernardino, Winckowski (1.2), Martin, Jacques.
Jacques to AAA.
Nick Robertson called up. (Acquired in E.Hernandez trade.)
Aug 6 vs TOR Paxton - Bernardino, Murphy (2.1), Llovera, Bleier (2.1), Robertson, Reyes.
Bleier DFA'd
Lamet called up.
Aug 7 vs KC Crawford - Bello (6.2) Winckowski (.1), Martin, Jansen.
Story Returns from IL (goes 0-4 batting 3rd on 8/8)
Aug 8 vs KC Bullpen - Crawford (3.1), Bernardino, Lamet (2), Robertson (3).
Lamet DFA'd
Robertson to AAA.
Walter called up.
Barraclough called up.
Barraclough called up.
Whitlock begins rehab assignment (expected to be short.)
Aug 9 vs KC Bullpen/Pivetta
Aug 10 vs KC Bello
Aug 11 vs DET Paxton
Aug 12 vs DET Crawford
Aug 13 vs DET Bullpen/Pivetta
Aug 14 off
(Note from the beginning of the thread: Story, Sale, Houck in "mid august" possible return? Story actually back on 8/8)
Aug 15 @ WSN
Aug 16 @ WSN
Aug 17 @ WSN
(Note: the Gauntlet starts)
Aug 18 @ NYY
Aug 19 @ NYY
Aug 20 @ NYY
Aug 21 @ HOU
Aug 22 @ HOU
Aug 23 @ HOU
Aug 24 @ HOU
Aug 25 vs LAD
Aug 26 vs LAD
Aug 27 vs LAD
Aug 28 vs HOU
Aug 29 vs HOU
Aug 30 vs HOU
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Well, that worked well, until it didn't. I haven't been able to follow the games for a bit, so this at first looks like a big red chunk of suck to me. A couple of those losses look like single failure point games, where someone didn't have it. Others just seem like tight games.
Love-Ra is not looking great from the Box Score view.
Love-Ra is not looking great from the Box Score view.
Bumping again for Sale's start.
Just by itself this chunk of the season is interesting. Instead of trying to max out the Bello/Paxton/Crawford starts and limit the "bullpen" games (although Pivetta was essentially a disguised starter) they opted for a more or less regular progression through the rotation, with the off-days falling where they may.
The Sox went 1-3 in the "true bullpen" games (that is, those games where Murphy was the anchoring pitcher.)
They went 2-2 in the Pivetta games.
Just by itself this chunk of the season is interesting. Instead of trying to max out the Bello/Paxton/Crawford starts and limit the "bullpen" games (although Pivetta was essentially a disguised starter) they opted for a more or less regular progression through the rotation, with the off-days falling where they may.
The Sox went 1-3 in the "true bullpen" games (that is, those games where Murphy was the anchoring pitcher.)
They went 2-2 in the Pivetta games.
The white text is the original proposed schedule for how the team might fare in the 3 starter/injury era.
Greens are wins, Reds are losses, indents are notes and roster moves.
Innings are 1(ish) with starter and significant long/short appearances noted.
Bold is most pivotal pitcher, good in a win or bad in a loss (my subjective reading.)
July 14 @ Cubs Bello - Bello (6), Winckowski, Bernardino, Scott, Jansen (.1).
July 15 @ Cubs Paxton - Paxton (3), Scott, Rodriguez, Jaques, Walter (2).
Scott DFA'd (OAK), Jake Faria up from AAA, stretched out as a starter, last pitched 7/5.
July 16 @ Cubs Crawford - Crawford (6), Jacques, Faria (2 - 65 pitches).
Faria DFA'd (Worcester), Bleier off the IL.
July 17 @ A’s Bullpen/Pivetta - Bernardino (2), Pivetta (6), Martin.
July 18 @ A’s Bullpen - Jacques, Murphy (4.2), Rodriguez, Bleier.
July 19 @ A’s Bello - Bello (4), Rodriguez, Winckowski (2), Jansen.
July 20 off
July 21 vs NYM Paxton - Crawford (4) Suspended Game due to Rain. (score 4-3 Mets)
Bello on Paternity List, Garza up from AAA.
Story and Kluber begin rehab assignments.
July 22 vs NYM (cont.) Jacques, Bernardino, Bleier (2), Martin.
July 22 vs NYM Crawford - Paxton (6), Winckowski, Pivetta, Garza, Jansen (.1).
July 23 vs NYM Bullpen/Pivetta - Bernardino (1.2), Murphy (3.2), Winckowski, Rodriguez, Jacques, Martin, Walter.
July 24 off
Garza and Walter to AAA. (note: very light use of Walter recently.)
Schreiber off the IL. Bello off the Paternity List
July 25 vs ATL Bello - Schreiber, Pivetta (5), Bleier, Martin, Rodriguez (2).
Kluber begins rehab assignment.
Story begins rehab assignment.
July 26 vs ATL Paxton - Bello (6), Jacques, Schreiber, Bernardino (.1), Jansen.
July 27 off
July 28 @ SF Crawford - Crawford (5.2), Bernardino (.1), Winckowski, Martin, Jansen.
Jacques to AAA.
Llovera (acquired from SFG) called up.
July 29 @ SF Bullpen/Pivetta - Paxton (5), Bleier, Llovera, Jansen.
July 30 @ SF Bello - Bernardino, Schreiber (2), Murphy (3.1), Winckowski (1.2), Bleier, Martin, Llovera.
Jacques called up.
Rodriguez to 15 day IL (hip), retroactive to the 29th.)
July 31 @ SEA Paxton - Pivetta (7.1), Jacques.
Aug 1 @ SEA Bullpen - Bello (6), Martin, Winckowski, Jansen.
Sale begins rehab assignment at AAA.
(Note: Trade Deadline)
Aug 2 @ SEA Crawford - Crawford (5), Schreiber, Bleier, Llovera.
Aug 3 off
Aug 4 vs TOR Bullpen/Pivetta - Paxton (5), Llovera, Jacques, Bleier.
Houck begins rehab assignment at AAA.
Aug 5 vs TOR Bello - Schreiber, Pivetta (4), Bernardino, Winckowski (1.2), Martin, Jacques.
Jacques to AAA.
Nick Robertson called up. (Acquired in E.Hernandez trade.)
Aug 6 vs TOR Paxton - Bernardino, Murphy (2.1), Llovera, Bleier (2.1), Robertson, Reyes.
Bleier DFA'd
Lamet called up.
Aug 7 vs KC Crawford - Bello (6.2) Winckowski (.1), Martin, Jansen.
Story Returns from IL (goes 0-4 batting 3rd on 8/8)
Aug 8 vs KC Bullpen - Crawford (3.1), Bernardino, Lamet (2), Robertson (3).
Lamet DFA'd
Robertson to AAA.
Walter called up.
Barraclough called up.
Whitlock begins rehab assignment (expected to be short.)
Aug 9 vs KC Bullpen/Pivetta - Pivetta (5), Schreiber, Winckowski, Martin, Jansen.
Aug 10 vs KC Bello - Paxton (5.1), Schreiber, Winckowski, Martin, Jansen.
Sale Returns from IL.
?
Aug 11 vs DET Paxton - Sale
Aug 12 vs DET Crawford
Aug 13 vs DET Bullpen/Pivetta
Aug 14 off
(Note from the beginning of the thread: Story, Sale, Houck in "mid august" possible return? Story actually back on 8/8, Sale on 8/10.)
Aug 15 @ WSN
Aug 16 @ WSN
Aug 17 @ WSN
(Note: the Gauntlet starts)
Aug 18 @ NYY
Aug 19 @ NYY
Aug 20 @ NYY
Aug 21 @ HOU
Aug 22 @ HOU
Aug 23 @ HOU
Aug 24 @ HOU
Aug 25 vs LAD
Aug 26 vs LAD
Aug 27 vs LAD
Aug 28 vs HOU
Aug 29 vs HOU
Aug 30 vs HOU
Since Sale signed his extension he has cost ~$1M per inning (~110M vs. 107.1IP). I wonder if that is a record of some sort or if that has any competition in terms of $/innings
You should look into a guy named Steve Strasburg. Not saying Sale has been a bargain (and I have been an adamant critic of the contract, especially since he had another year on his previous contract when it was signed), but Strasburg signed for $283M before 2019, and, while he pitched 209 innings in 2019, has only pitched about 30 since then, and his career is likely over. There's only 3 years left at $35M per on that contract, though.
Shilling being only one year, I'm going to rank Sale's the 2nd most historically unfortunate contract for a pitcher in history - but he can turn that around by a great rest of 23 and a healthy 24! Hope springs eternal.
But he also has a chance to challenge Strasburg for the top slot
But he also has a chance to challenge Strasburg for the top slot
No. I don't believe he does.Shilling being only one year, I'm going to rank Sale's the 2nd most historically unfortunate contract for a pitcher in history - but he can turn that around by a great rest of 23 and a healthy 24! Hope springs eternal.
But he also has a chance to challenge Strasburg for the top slot
David Price cashed in close to $100m for around 30 starts over his last 3 years. At least Sale might have something to offer.
Sure he does, albeit unlikely but it's technically possible. If he can't give the Redsox 16 more innings he would tick above Strasberg's dollar/inning amount.
If Sale needs TJ2 before his 4th start this year that could very well put him there.
DeGrom though, yes that will likely win the top honor eventually
Sale doesn't seem particularly bad when you look at the history (though I agree it was a dumb idea). Besides Strasburg, who has already been mentioned...
Johan Santana another guy whose final contract was exceptionally lucrative for him while he pitched very little. 25 mill a year over his last three years to pitch 117 innings.
Or how about age 30-33 for Felix Hernandez? 450 innings over four years, but pitching to an ERA of basically 5. 25 million a year for those four years.
Scott Kazmir got three years at 17 mill a piece in 2016 from the Dodgers and only started 26 games.
Oh, and who remembers the contract the Giants gave Tim Lincecum, and how poorly that went... and then how they turned around and did the same thing with Johnny Cueto?
These aren't exactly comparable to Sale -- but in one sense they are: giving starting pitchers big contracts for their age 30+ seasons is a form of gambling. Even if the guys arm doesn't fall off, you better hope it's hanging by enough threads for him to be still effective.
Johan Santana another guy whose final contract was exceptionally lucrative for him while he pitched very little. 25 mill a year over his last three years to pitch 117 innings.
Or how about age 30-33 for Felix Hernandez? 450 innings over four years, but pitching to an ERA of basically 5. 25 million a year for those four years.
Scott Kazmir got three years at 17 mill a piece in 2016 from the Dodgers and only started 26 games.
Oh, and who remembers the contract the Giants gave Tim Lincecum, and how poorly that went... and then how they turned around and did the same thing with Johnny Cueto?
These aren't exactly comparable to Sale -- but in one sense they are: giving starting pitchers big contracts for their age 30+ seasons is a form of gambling. Even if the guys arm doesn't fall off, you better hope it's hanging by enough threads for him to be still effective.
He actually signed in Dec 2019 after their unlikely WS run, so he is currently at $140M for those 30 innings, eventually $245M.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2019/12/09/stephen-strasburg-contract-nationals/
With the Sox paying $48m to have him pitch for LA. Question though: what's the value of a world series win? Both Price and
Update: NVM, Strasburg's great 2019 was on his previous deal. So his current contract has a clear lead for worst ever (SP role).
The really crazy thing to me about the Strasburg contract is that WAS decided they could only afford one of him or Anthony Rendon, so they signed Stras and Rendon signed an identical 7/245 deal with the Angels. Rendon has yet to even get to 250 PAs in a season in the first four years of that deal, just 857 total for a grand total of 3.2 bWAR. Despite that disastrous performance, Rendon's deal was clearly the better one of the two, that's how bad the Stras deal has turned out.
Add in the awful Corbin contract and that’s what, $700-$800m of negative production among those three.