2023 NBA Playoffs

m0ckduck

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Thank absolute Christ that Atlanta was able to win that play-in game. I will speak no further ill of any of them other than Dejounte Murray. I hope those fine gentlemen have a pleasant, injury-free but mildly disappointing evening tomorrow night, and a wonderful and relaxing offseason.
This times a billion.
Yes. A billion plus 1.
If they lose this series, coach Bud is done.
The pick and roll with Giannis and Lopez exploiting dwarfish Heat defenders was as reliably unstoppable as any play you're going to see in NBA playoff basketball. Every time they went away from that— usually to something involving Holiday or Middleton generating the offense— it felt like a gift to Miami. I don't understand sometimes why teams don't just run the same advantageous play into the ground in these situations.
 

Imbricus

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Jan 26, 2017
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The only question in Miami this morning should be who's footing the bill for the giant statue of Jimmy Butler they should be erecting downtown.
 

lovegtm

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The only question in Miami this morning should be who's footing the bill for the giant statue of Jimmy Butler they should be erecting downtown.
So crazy and terrifying that Philly could have had him for just money and years (judging by all reporting that I've seen, and his "Tobias Harris over ME?!")

Butler went out of his way in the postgame interview last night to say Embiid should be MVP, he had the interview from last year's playoffs saying he still wishes he was on Embiid's team......what an incredible fuckup by Philly.
 

Imbricus

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So crazy and terrifying that Philly could have had him for just money and years (judging by all reporting that I've seen, and his "Tobias Harris over ME?!")
Yeah, what a truly epic fail. That's when you just take your GM out behind the shed and shoot him.
 

JoePoulson

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I hate the Lakers, but watching this Memphis team lose is pretty gratifying in its own way too.
This is where I'm at. All the front-running chirping they do, yet complete silence after they (always) lose, with obviously the main star Dillon Bricks leading the way. Really is awesome even if it's the Lakers beating them.
 

lovegtm

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It's the next day and I still can't get over how impressive that Butler game was, particularly watching it in the moment. Just amazing.
 

Sam Ray Not

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This is where I'm at. All the front-running chirping they do, yet complete silence after they (always) lose, with obviously the main star Dillon Bricks leading the way. Really is awesome even if it's the Lakers beating them.
Ja’s fine in the West, tho…
 

benhogan

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The NBA has a potential scheduling problem on its hands. They could be without a game Thursday night, if Denver, PHX, and Boston close it out tonight.

Would Boston v Philly start on Saturday if C's win tonight?
 

HomeRunBaker

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So crazy and terrifying that Philly could have had him for just money and years (judging by all reporting that I've seen, and his "Tobias Harris over ME?!")

Butler went out of his way in the postgame interview last night to say Embiid should be MVP, he had the interview from last year's playoffs saying he still wishes he was on Embiid's team......what an incredible fuckup by Philly.
It’s crazy to see how good Philly is right now despite ALL of their fuckups in recent past.

Tobias (who I rate higher than most) over Butler, Fultz over Tatum, Simmons whatever, etc
 

BaseballJones

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Yes. A billion plus 1.

The pick and roll with Giannis and Lopez exploiting dwarfish Heat defenders was as reliably unstoppable as any play you're going to see in NBA playoff basketball. Every time they went away from that— usually to something involving Holiday or Middleton generating the offense— it felt like a gift to Miami. I don't understand sometimes why teams don't just run the same advantageous play into the ground in these situations.
This is where I'm at. During the season you want to keep exploring all your options, but when you need the W, you run what's working. Over and over and over until the other team finds a way to stop it. Then you adjust.
 

jon abbey

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Yeah Miami had no chance to stop that play, it’s really stunning they won that game. Miami scored 30 points in the final 6 minutes, alltime great game from Butler.
 

m0ckduck

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This is where I'm at. During the season you want to keep exploring all your options, but when you need the W, you run what's working. Over and over and over until the other team finds a way to stop it. Then you adjust.
I do think that Mil can win the next three games if they wise up, force-feed that mismatch and stops screwing around. Miami HAS to go small to score points. They need to roll out Bam, Jimmy and 3 smaller players, both for the 3-ball and for the spacing to give Jimmy room to operate. There's no way in hell that lineup can reliably defend Lopez and Giannis.

The worry for the Bucks, though, is that they've given themselves so little margin that the Heat no longer need to reliably solve that problem. All they need is one more instance of 35-40 from Butler, which you're getting at least once more, coupled with freakishly good 3pt shooting, which they've had throughout the series (last night was actually their worst of the series so far at 40%). Variance is the problem. If you're Milwaukee, you're just hoping those things don't happen on the same night.
 

lovegtm

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Yeah Miami had no chance to stop that play, it’s really stunning they won that game. Miami scored 30 points in the final 6 minutes, alltime great game from Butler.
I think what impressed me most, relative to other "guy went off" games of the past 10 years, is that most of those other games were:

- guy goes supernova from 3
- big guy dominates inside

This was a wing, only going 3-8 from 3, dominating at all levels, and also covering Giannis credibly on the other end. Really unique performance.
 

lovegtm

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I do think that Mil can win the next three games if they wise up, force-feed that mismatch and stops screwing around. Miami HAS to go small to score points. They need to roll out Bam, Jimmy and 3 smaller players, both for the 3-ball and for the spacing to give Jimmy room to operate. There's no way in hell that lineup can reliably defend Lopez and Giannis.

The worry for the Bucks, though, is that they've given themselves so little margin that the Heat no longer need to reliably solve that problem. All they just need one more instance of 35-40 from Butler, which you're getting at least once more, coupled with freakishly good 3pt shooting, which they've had throughout the series (last night was actually their worst of the series so far at 40%). Variance is the problem. If you're Milwaukee, you're just hoping those things don't happen on the same night.
Don't forget that the Bucks could also have a super-cold game from 3, Giannis' back could act up...a lot of the surprises that can happen are bad for Milwaukee.
 

BaseballJones

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I think what impressed me most, relative to other "guy went off" games of the past 10 years, is that most of those other games were:

- guy goes supernova from 3
- big guy dominates inside

This was a wing, only going 3-8 from 3, dominating at all levels, and also covering Giannis credibly on the other end. Really unique performance.
Butler hit a ton of midrange jumpers, showing that you can still win that way in the NBA. Maybe not reliably, game after game, but I love seeing guys go off from that area of the court in an age when basketball is all threes and drives to the rim. I personally prefer basketball when teams utilize the entire court to score and not just use certain areas.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Lost in all the shuffle is Duncan Robinson emerging from the doghouse to be a major spark off the bench not only with his shooting but in forcing the Bucks defense to stay attentive to him.
 

BaseballJones

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I mean, this is the Miami team (without Herro though) that people thought would be one of the best in the East this year. If the Celtics get to the ECF and face this Heat team....they'll be a royal pain in the ass to play, make no mistake.

First things first though.
 

Auger34

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It’s crazy to see how good Philly is right now despite ALL of their fuckups in recent past.

Tobias (who I rate higher than most) over Butler, Fultz over Tatum, Simmons whatever, etc
Trading Mikal Bridges for Zhaire Smith, drafting Jahlil Okafor…those are 4 MASSIVE whiffs. It’s impressive that they are as good as they are really
 

lovegtm

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I mean, this is the Miami team (without Herro though) that people thought would be one of the best in the East this year. If the Celtics get to the ECF and face this Heat team....they'll be a royal pain in the ass to play, make no mistake.

First things first though.
The Heat would be a pain (although the Knicks would be favored imo), but this also reflects poorly on the Bucks once again.

Giannis is hurt, which makes a huge difference, but they've underperformed in the playoffs every year except for their title run. In that year, KD alone took them 7, and then they got the easiest ECF matchup since IT4 was injured against Cleveland.

They're a very good team with Giannis, but they get this "omg championship pedigree" benefit of the doubt that I don't think is really deserved.

tldr; I'm a lot more afraid of a Heat/Spo/Butler team overperforming than I am of a Giannis team doing so.
 

m0ckduck

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It's the next day and I still can't get over how impressive that Butler game was, particularly watching it in the moment. Just amazing.
I just re-watched the ending— it's really amazing. At one moment you have:
  • Kyle Lowry doing useful things and repeatedly stripping Jrue Holiday (?!)
  • Lowry stealing the ball and throwing it ahead to Butler who dunks to cap the 13-0 run, hangs on the rim ecstatically and then nearly hurts himself on the landing
  • The Miami crowd so excited that it feels more like Madison Square Garden than a typical Heat game
  • Reggie Miller blathering platitudes all the while
 

InstaFace

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With 6 minutes left, the Bucks were up 101-89. Everyone assumed the regular-season juggernaut would close it out. They probably do 9 times out of 10 or more.

Score from that point until garbage time with 32 seconds left: Miami 27, Milwaukee 8. 109-116.
 

benhogan

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It’s crazy to see how good Philly is right now despite ALL of their fuckups in recent past.

Tobias (who I rate higher than most) over Butler, Fultz over Tatum, Simmons whatever, etc
Just goes to show you how many assets you can gather + cap space you can create by openly tanking for 3-4 seasons (or was it longer?)

Even Hinkie's initial kick-off the "Process" trade was pretty bad in hindsight (young All-Star Jrue Holiday for Nerlens Noel + a NOLA First).
 

HomeRunBaker

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Trading Mikal Bridges for Zhaire Smith, drafting Jahlil Okafor…those are 4 MASSIVE whiffs. It’s impressive that they are as good as they are really
I knew there were more I just couldn’t think of them at the time. The Bridges one, kid from Philly whose mother worked for the Sixers, is kinda hysterical in hindsight.
 

128

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I knew there were more I just couldn’t think of them at the time. The Bridges one, kid from Philly whose mother worked for the Sixers, is kinda hysterical in hindsight.
Sixers also traded Jrue Holiday for Nerlens Noel, a Philly buddy just reminded me.
 

lovegtm

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Sixers also traded Jrue Holiday for Nerlens Noel, a Philly buddy just reminded me.
The funny thing is, the Noel trade was widely lauded at the time by smart people as Hinkie selling high on Jrue's all-star appearance.
 

GreenMonster49

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The Warriors are going to wipe the floor with the winner of this series. These two teams just aren't particularly good.
The Warriors still need to win a game on the road to play that winner.

They are now 11-32 between the regular season and games 1-4 of this round. (That means 8-32 against teams besides Houston and San Antonio and 7-32 if we throw out the last game of the season, when Portland was playing to lose.)
 

lovegtm

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The Warriors still need to win a game on the road to play that winner.

They are now 11-32 between the regular season and games 1-4 of this round. (That means 8-32 against teams besides Houston and San Antonio and 7-32 if we throw out the last game of the season, when Portland was playing to lose.)
Yes, but Fox is hurt. I don't think Sac can win this if he's very limited or unavailable.
 

m0ckduck

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Is it silly that my hope for the Sixers series (assuming they get there) is Embiid plays albeit with limited mobility, rather than sitting? If he sits out, I fear the dynamic where the C's let up a bit, Sixers play faster (on account of the smaller lineup) and with more urgency (b/c they know it's an uphill climb) and catch us flatfooted.

Note: This is my perspective in terms of "what benefits Celts the most". In terms of what I'd most like to see as a fan, it would be both teams at full strength so we can beat them anyway.
 

tims4wins

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The Warriors still need to win a game on the road to play that winner.

They are now 11-32 between the regular season and games 1-4 of this round. (That means 8-32 against teams besides Houston and San Antonio and 7-32 if we throw out the last game of the season, when Portland was playing to lose.)
This reminds me of the 2018 Pats being 3-5 on the road having beaten no one and going on the road in Arrowhead to win the AFC. For veteran championship teams it may just not matter.
 

TrapperAB

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While the Heat are dangerous, they’ll get their own war of attrition with the Knicks, assuming both teams advance.

They’re going to beat the ever-living shit out of each other. 90s-style cage matches. Hopefully seven of them.
 

Auger34

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I would definitely not count out the Bucks just yet. That Heat team is very capable of laying complete duds, especially without Herro.

But, as noted above, the Bucks have basically no margin for error now
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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So crazy and terrifying that Philly could have had him for just money and years (judging by all reporting that I've seen, and his "Tobias Harris over ME?!")

Butler went out of his way in the postgame interview last night to say Embiid should be MVP, he had the interview from last year's playoffs saying he still wishes he was on Embiid's team......what an incredible fuckup by Philly.
What makes it even worse is that they didn't really choose Harris over Butler, they chose Simmons over Butler. See: https://nba.nbcsports.com/2022/05/12/report-76ers-felt-they-must-choose-between-ben-simmons-and-jimmy-butler/.

IIRC from what Butler said on Reddick's podcast, he insinuated that both Embiid and Simmons went to PHI management to complain about Butler. From what Embiid has said since then, maybe Embiid felt like he had to support Simmons. But Simmons really screwed up PHI in a whole lot of different ways.
 

Smokey Joe

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I knew there were more I just couldn’t think of them at the time. The Bridges one, kid from Philly whose mother worked for the Sixers, is kinda hysterical in hindsight.
The sixers were set up to hit a home run in that draft and managed to turn it into a dribbler back to the pitcher. I wonder if Mikal’s Mom still works there.
 

PedroKsBambino

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I would still favor Bucks to win series---but it's now close to a toss-up for all the reasons others have noted.

Having to go 7 (or lose) and then face a meat-grinder against Knicks is a great way to soften up the Bucks.
 

Smokey Joe

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While the Heat are dangerous, they’ll get their own war of attrition with the Knicks, assuming both teams advance.

They’re going to beat the ever-living shit out of each other. 90s-style cage matches. Hopefully seven of them.
The whole idea of a Knicks-Heat playoff match makes me giddy. I wonder if Jeff Van Gundy can be persuaded to make a guest appearance wrapped around Bam Adebayo’s leg.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Just goes to show you how many assets you can gather + cap space you can create by openly tanking for 3-4 seasons (or was it longer?)

Even Hinkie's initial kick-off the "Process" trade was pretty bad in hindsight (young All-Star Jrue Holiday for Nerlens Noel + a NOLA First).
From 2013 to 2018, they picked 11 (Carter Williams), 3 (Embiid - note PHI also picked Jeremi Grant in R2), 3 (Okafor), 1 (Simmons), 1 (Fultz), and 10 (Bridges).

Just goes to show you that in the NBA, getting one Superstar and managing one's cap space can usually create a contender. Amazing PHI didn't get more out of all of this.

edit: just reminded that in 2014, MIL had the #2 pick and took Okafor. Speaking of alternate universes, can people imagine what MIL would be like with both Giannis and Embiid?
 

GreenMonster49

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This reminds me of the 2018 Pats being 3-5 on the road having beaten no one and going on the road in Arrowhead to win the AFC. For veteran championship teams it may just not matter.
Right, but 3-5 on the road was merely subpar for playoff teams (4 playoff teams that year were 4-4 on the road and the Patriots and Seahawks were 3-5). Only 4 NBA teams had fewer than 14 road wins this year; the others were the Pistons, Rockets, and Spurs. (Or, to put it another way, of the teams who made it to the Round of 16, the next worst road teams were the Hawks, the Heat, and the Suns at 17-24. A road record of 11-31 is much worse than a 3-5 road record.
 

DeadlySplitter

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The Warriors are going to wipe the floor with the winner of this series. These two teams just aren't particularly good.
The Warriors nearly went down 3-1 and still have to prove their road record this year wasn't just regular season resting BS.

Although Fox probably nowhere close to 100% might tip the scales on this series.
 

tims4wins

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Right, but 3-5 on the road was merely subpar for playoff teams (4 playoff teams that year were 4-4 on the road and the Patriots and Seahawks were 3-5). Only 4 NBA teams had fewer than 14 road wins this year; the others were the Pistons, Rockets, and Spurs. (Or, to put it another way, of the teams who made it to the Round of 16, the next worst road teams were the Hawks, the Heat, and the Suns at 17-24. A road record of 11-31 is much worse than a 3-5 road record.
All of your statements are absolutely true. But I think they have absolutely zero bearing on what happens from here. I hope I am wrong and the Dubs are incapable of winning on the road because a Finals rematch terrifies me.
 

lovegtm

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This doesn't sound like a guy who will magically get healthy.

His cardio conditioning will also be deteriorating rapidly.
 

Kliq

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I think Doc is exaggerating and Embiid probably isn't hurt as badly as he is making it out to seem.
 

PedroKsBambino

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Do we know what play Embiid was injured on?

I am hoping it was one of his foul-seeking dives....but I guess it doesn't matter.
 

Mystic Merlin

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Doc said the other day that Embiid reported pain ‘behind his knee’, with the report of an LCL sprain coming just today. I don’t know what the sum of this information means, but those details and Doc bouncing around between refusing to speculate on a timetable to assigning a 50/50 percentage to his ability to play in the next round and, most recently, saying he can’t practice, doesn’t inspire confidence. But Doc’s statements also suggest he’s an unreliable source of information, so…..?