I do think that Mil can win the next three games if they wise up, force-feed that mismatch and stops screwing around. Miami HAS to go small to score points. They need to roll out Bam, Jimmy and 3 smaller players, both for the 3-ball and for the spacing to give Jimmy room to operate. There's no way in hell that lineup can reliably defend Lopez and Giannis.
The worry for the Bucks, though, is that they've given themselves so little margin that the Heat no longer need to reliably solve that problem. All they just need one more instance of 35-40 from Butler, which you're getting at least once more, coupled with freakishly good 3pt shooting, which they've had throughout the series (last night was actually their worst of the series so far at 40%). Variance is the problem. If you're Milwaukee, you're just hoping those things don't happen on the same night.