Honestly, I'm ok that Soto is unlikely to sign an extension. If he's a good fit and likes being with the organization, the Yankees won't have any problem paying market rate. If he's not a good fit, well, the prospect loss is a sunk cost and better to go in a different direction anyway.
Yeah if you are Juan Soto and are a LHH who already has 160 career HRs at 25, Yankee Stadium RF long-term is probably a big selling point, all else being relatively equal. That could be what, 50-60 extra HRs over a 12 year deal? I am pulling that number out of my ass but the general point remains the same.
Obviously it's Juan Soto so you figure it out, but I don't see how he and Judge co-exist long-term without one being DH, especially since they still have never even tried Judge in LF. Judge can play competent CF a few times a week for now anyway, but I don't think you want him there every day if possible. Soto as the primary LF would definitely give back some runs, but yeah you hope you have the chance to try to figure it out, even for one season.
So it's a bit like trading one year of Mookie to LAD (sorry), although Mookie was a superlative defender. Both were/are being paid in the $30M range for their final year of control, BOS sent some of Price's money too so didn't get as big a package in return.
I think a package like Pereira, Schmidt (control through 2027), Fitts and their choice of Thorpe or Hampton should be the top bid and IMO SD would be crazy not to take it, that could be filling four holes cheaply for a long time when they need to cut a bunch of salary and not a lot of easily movable deals. That is a lot of pitching, the final three guys (SD gets 2 plus Schmidt) are all close to ready already (all in AA), none even have their 40 man clocks started yet.
NY has a lot of different options to include in those pitching slots too, Michael King looked so dominant down the stretch in the rotation that I'd be hesitant to include him but he does only have two years of team control left. He started 8 games, gradually building up. He got hit in the final one but the first seven were close to perfect:
34.1 25 6 4 9 47
1.05 ERA, 1.30 FIP, .500 OPS allowed
Anyway, Pereira, 3 SPs, and if they like any of Higgy/Rortvedt/Narvaez, they are welcome to one of them too to close the deal.
Will Warren is the one of the Warren/Thorpe/Hampton/Fitts I'd be most hesitant to include, he was so dominant down the stretch in Scranton in a year where guys like Vasquez and Brito who had success with NY (Brito was great once moved to long relief) got consistently hammered for Scranton, I would really like to see him get a chance for NY this year. Hampton is I think generally considered the best prospect of the four, Thorpe won overall MiLB pitcher of the year, and Fitts was the Eastern League pitcher of the year, I am excited about all four, but Warren is the current leader among them in JEL (Jon Excitement Level). He was promoted to AAA in mid-May and had trouble initially, like everyone else in the league all season. But wow did he figure it out in Sept, 5 games (two not technically starts as he came in after a rehabbing MLB reliever):
28.2 15 2 2 11 36
0.63 ERA, .152 BAA