2023-24 Celtics
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I'm not Clippers-concerned, and I didn't care about the Milwaukee game, but this was mildly concerning.
They're pretty rested, playing everybody, and couldn't find any "snap" on offense. This team lives or dies by its offensive execution, and getting other teams into rotation, and it's concerning that they now have 96 minutes of not really doing that.
I think they'll get it together, but the 1st round could go longer or be more nail-bitey than it should have been.
Yeah, I saw the first half of last night's game. Blech. My biggest concern was not that they consistently half-assed it. It's that they had spurts where they seemed to care, and wanted to turn things around, and just couldn't, and gave up. Hopefully there's just a switch they need to flip, and they go back to beating up teams when the playoffs start. But it looked like a few times last night, they tried to flip that switch and couldn't.
I will be not commenting on the Celtics again until after the playoffs lol, when they win the title in dominant fashion.
Yea, the 2024 Celtics will go through the EC like a hot knife through butter.
BUT last night's first 3 Quarters is how they will lose a few games in the playoffs:
starters 5/24 from 3, rebounding, turnovers
It's not the worst thing to get a jolt like this a week before the playoffs.
Hmm, I smell a prediction poll on the Celtics record in the playoffs to make us feel better
BUT last night's first 3 Quarters is how they will lose a few games in the playoffs:
starters 5/24 from 3, rebounding, turnovers
It's not the worst thing to get a jolt like this a week before the playoffs.
Hmm, I smell a prediction poll on the Celtics record in the playoffs to make us feel better
That’s what last nights full lineup at home was for. I expect to see a lot of the deep bench these final two games.
We talked in one of the threads about rebounding being a risk for this team - and I know there's season-long data that shows it is not a gap. The reason a few of us have cited it as a potential problem still is what we saw last night: they are not especially big or physical, and when teams who are bigger and/or more physical really challenge them on the boards they can get into a 'shot deficit'. Celtics had 20 fewer FGs at halftime last night, or early 3rd quarter - you can't win that way. That is a bit about turnovers and a little about more FT but mostly about rebounding and not winning loose balls. And those, to me, remain a place bigger and more physical teams (Miami, NY, Minnesota) can steal games from this Celtics team.
Tillman didn't get more run last night to address this, which I would hope is tried in the playoffs should this occur. But that does create other gaps, I realize. Fundamentally, they need the 'core six' to really be focused on gang rebounding and responding to physicality.
Tillman didn't get more run last night to address this, which I would hope is tried in the playoffs should this occur. But that does create other gaps, I realize. Fundamentally, they need the 'core six' to really be focused on gang rebounding and responding to physicality.
This feels like the number one symptom of the not caring everyone's referencing. When one team cares about the win a lot, and the other not at all, the last thing you should be getting concerned about is how well they did on the boards or getting to loose balls. If it hasn't been an issue all season, you're not going to get any more relevant data points until we actually see the playoffs.
It has been an issue in specific games, though. The above suggests that 'average' across regular season is a good proxy for playoffs - it isn't. The playoffs are more intense, and the matchups and style are a bigger factor. So saying "across 82 games they were fine, so they will be in 7" is just not how playoff basketball has ever worked.
This is the best team in the NBA. They should win each series. And, rather than pretending that is an inalterable and unchallengeable conclusion, what I think we should do (and hope the team is doing) is ask where there are matchups, situations, and styles that someone can beat us and focusing on how to respond to them. One of the places they can lose--and have---is when the other team is more physical and rebounds (especially offensively) in a material way. Last night was an example of that; wishing it away is not wise.
SInce March 1, the Celtics are 23rd in FG Dreb%. Almost all that damage is in April. Since April 1st, the Celtics are 28th in FG Dreb% at 68.9%. League average over that time span is 73.6%. The rebounding basically fell off a cliff in April.
That said, 5 of their worst 12 defensive rebounding performances have come against the Knicks. Their highest Dreb% on FGAs in a game against the Knicks this year is 65.9%.
That said, 5 of their worst 12 defensive rebounding performances have come against the Knicks. Their highest Dreb% on FGAs in a game against the Knicks this year is 65.9%.
This is the thing---in general their rebounding is fine. AND there are matchups where it is not. Both those things are true.
Similarly, their interior defense is generally fine. AND Jokic and GA have had easier-than-they-should times against Celtics, which is part of why they got Tillman.
We should be focusing on these matchups the way the other coach will - what is it we can do that Celtics can't respond to. That is how the playoffs always work.
Well, it has rarely been an issue, like the first Minnesota game. But yeah: We're both very big and physical. I don't know what PKB is talking about. The Jays' offensive game is predicated on their strength at this point. Jaylen was fronting Zion Williamson and not only staying in front of him but taking his bumps without yielding. Al can bring the beef when he needs to, Hauser can't get bumped off a position, Jrue is pretty notable for his ability to guard up, which is based on his lower-body strength ("leg day champion" is the term thrown around for him), even Pritchard has grown into sufficient strength to bump people off on drives under the basket and clear some room for a layup. Derrick White is physical in his own way, he has incredible gifts when it comes to body position, knowing when to swing at a ball, anticipation - he's not going to truck anyone but he's aggressive with what tools he's got. Miami, meanwhile, is a lot smaller than us on their starting lineup. NYK has more to worry about in the size department, with Brunson, than we do (we can pull Pritchard, they can't pull Brunson), and while Randle might create mismatches at the 4, he's out for the year. Minnesota is perhaps the only contender with equivalent size to us, and that's only if KAT comes back.
I'm seeing a bunch of people here watching the last two games and coming up with stuff to worry about, despite the wiser posters around here having been proclaiming that we'd dial it back and flip into give-a-shit mode for the final month or so. Our 80%-giving-a-shit was enough to win a bunch of games over the last month, but now that we're at like 50% for caring, and we're actually losing some games against good teams, that is NOT a reason to read too much into the games. Like, seriously, people, we're better than this:
Neither of us are in the heads or the timeout huddles of the Celtics, but this is the very definition of "trying to impose a narrative that suits a worrywort agenda, rather than the obvious conclusion that they're half-assing it".
A team that is 62-16 on the year does not still have a burden of proof on whether they can bring it when they need to. We have literally dozens of examples. Chicken Little-ing over a game like Milwaukee or last night suggests a big need to step back and consider the bigger picture. This isn't the game thread, folks - let's keep our heads attached to our bodies here. What's more likely: that we've suddenly lost the ability to focus enough to not give up a 2Q 17-0 run to the Knicks, or that we were half-assing it last night and Tuesday, probably will again tonight, and very much won't be when Philly comes to town a week from tomorrow? C'mon now.
If we look like we did last night come an actual playoff game, I will find Rocco's grave and respectfully deposit at its side a beautiful Yule Log. Yes, we have nits we can pick with this team, particularly from the Denver games, I don't think anyone regards us as flawless... but this stuff is the epitome of "nothing to worry about".
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i think rebounding pct carries pretty strongly to the postseason. this is imo overreacting to getting out rebounded by a team that is very good at offensive rebounds.
You're missing my point---which has always been that they are vulnerable to a small set of teams who are very good at rebounding. So I think you're agreeing with me as applied to the specific teams we should worry about this risk around, aren't you?
i’m saying your specific assertion that rebounding doesn’t carry over to the playoffs is not supported by data
That is not what I asserted, though. Please take the time to read more carefully before posting.
Knicks are 37% Oreb% on FGAs against the Celtics, but only 32.9% against the rest of the league. This in spite of the fact that the Celtics have the 10th best Dreb% on FGAs at ~73%. So the idea is that in the playoffs, matchups matter and the Knicks ability to offensive rebound against the Celtics is better than it would be against a different team with a similar Dreb% for matchup based reasons.
It's 5 games so I'm not sure it's true, but the argument seems pretty straightforward to me.
Edit: Of course the reasons might not universally be bad. Not all shots are offensively rebounded at the same rate. It could be this means the Knicks are missing more shots of a kind that are offensively rebounded at higher rates and making more shots that are offensively rebounded at lower rates than they do against a typical team. So, for example, maybe the Knicks FG% at the rim is particularly bad against the Celtics, or the Celtics block a higher % of Knicks shots than other teams (and blocked shots are offensively rebounded at a relatively high rate), and so on. There's going to be lots of noise in a 5 game sample.
It's 5 games so I'm not sure it's true, but the argument seems pretty straightforward to me.
Edit: Of course the reasons might not universally be bad. Not all shots are offensively rebounded at the same rate. It could be this means the Knicks are missing more shots of a kind that are offensively rebounded at higher rates and making more shots that are offensively rebounded at lower rates than they do against a typical team. So, for example, maybe the Knicks FG% at the rim is particularly bad against the Celtics, or the Celtics block a higher % of Knicks shots than other teams (and blocked shots are offensively rebounded at a relatively high rate), and so on. There's going to be lots of noise in a 5 game sample.
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As I said in multiple posts, in very clear English, the point is that an average does not mean it applies to every specific matchup. Let me know if you need me to explain why that is true in even simpler words.
If a team can come in and outrebound the Celtics and combine that with poor 3 point shooting, that is the recipe for losing a series.
Statistically you do pretty well predicting the playoffs by splitting the difference between each team's dreb % and oreb % from the regular season. I mean yea, against a really good offensive rebounding team like the Knicks a good defensive rebounding team will generally be below their season average. Is this what you were saying?
15-game lead, motivation, long NBA season, load mgmt, extreme caution under the rim when playing >>> take your pick
Oh I agree that the confluence of bad rebounding and TOs creating a shot differential is a danger for the team.
I just don't think this Knicks game is a relevant data point, or even a jumping off point for the discussion. Going hard for boards and loose balls is the last thing this team should be (or is) doing right now. The numbers have no bearing on the likelihood it happens in the playoffs. If you're making a case for that danger, it should come from games earlier in the season when both squads were actually trying.
The Cs' rebounding scheme depends on effort+physicality from a number of players who are mostly big/physical for their positions, but don't have a huge center who gobbles up everything by default. Instead, every missed shot is basically a loose ball.
With effort/focus, the natural defensive numbers advantage leads to the Cs getting a good rebound % on those loose balls.
Any drop in effort/focus quickly results in big rebounding numbers for the other team, where that team starts getting 50% of the loose balls.
also when other teams have a large center that never leaves the lane they seem to particularly struggle with that.
They can overcome it with effort and crashing the glass, but that has been missing lately.
View: https://twitter.com/celtics_stats/status/1778965103737462822
The Celtics went the full regular season without losing three consecutive games. It's first time since the 2010-11 season that they accomplished such a feat, per Elias.
The Celtics went the full regular season without losing three consecutive games. It's first time since the 2010-11 season that they accomplished such a feat, per Elias.
Well. That was fun. With the big six in street clothes, and Hauser and Pritchard anchoring the Maine Celtics, they beat up the beaten down Charlotte contingent. It tells us literally nothing, reveals nothing we didn't already know. But it was entertaining and fun, and watching the six celebrating their teammates was a joy for me. It's good to be reminded now and again that the games that we watch white-knuckled as we invest our life's energy in the pursuit of triumph are, at bottom, games, playful activities, celebrations of doing things with others that cannot be done alone.
I wouldn't want too many of these events. White-knuckling is a joy of its own. But it was fun to watch talented athletes at play, with nothing more at stake than that the game be pursued.
One more, then on to the wonderful pursuit of excellence that will result in #18.
I wouldn't want too many of these events. White-knuckling is a joy of its own. But it was fun to watch talented athletes at play, with nothing more at stake than that the game be pursued.
One more, then on to the wonderful pursuit of excellence that will result in #18.
The one thing it did confirm, rather emphatically, is Brad built the most efficient bench in the NBA (PPG be damned).
The NBA Media ripped Boston all season long about a weak bench, I'm sure the players were aware of this "obvious flaw".
The NBA Media ripped Boston all season long about a weak bench, I'm sure the players were aware of this "obvious flaw".
I really enjoyed watching the first half of last night's game -- I almost didn't, because the half-hearted effort in the two previous games left me kind of sour on the end of the season. I would've enjoyed last night's game if they had lost by 20. They were all connected, hustling, having fun.
I think the NBA's rules about putting non-injured starters on the floor for X minutes for televised games or whatever are ridiculous. If the NBA insists on doing that, they need to be much smarter about creating schedules. The schedules this year have been even more of a joke than usual, what with the early-season tournament, I suspect. They're just beating down the players physically and not creating a good product for fans. Back to backs should be virtually eliminated. Go to a 60- or 70-game season if needed.
I think the NBA's rules about putting non-injured starters on the floor for X minutes for televised games or whatever are ridiculous. If the NBA insists on doing that, they need to be much smarter about creating schedules. The schedules this year have been even more of a joke than usual, what with the early-season tournament, I suspect. They're just beating down the players physically and not creating a good product for fans. Back to backs should be virtually eliminated. Go to a 60- or 70-game season if needed.
Agreed. The NBA rules regarding starters/TV games are silly. But I get it, NBA Fan Boys HAVE to watch their anointed SuperStars on TV shoot jumpers during a meaningless April game
AFAIC, I'd rather watch 2nd stringers & deep bench play hard than the JAYs tip-toe around a glorified pre-season game.
BTW the NBA will never reduce the 82-game schedule, if anything they are adding more intensity (& more games) to the regular season with the IST & Play In games (both success stories).
Teams just need to be better at developing their bench and hiding days off for key players.
also CJM & Coaching Staff gets an A+ on the job done with:
1. MPG for TOP6
2. Rotational pairings with starters & bench players
3. Consistent/defined roles for every player
4. Key players games OFF this season
I've been a stickler on these four Coaching Decisions for decades, it was one of the best jobs ever executed by a Coach
(and Joe isn't getting nearly enough credit).
100% agree. I suspect that this sentiment is common, and it would become more common if the league were to embrace it.
Wouldn’t this be preferable to our offense and more than offset a couple caroms a night?
All I will say wrt the NBA national TV rules and rest stuff: it makes me feel a LOT better that the Celtics obviously didn't want to run their guys out for those games, but were forced to, because it explains why they looked so lethargic. I would have been a lot more concerned if they had been trying to test themselves and come up short.
(I know they tried to "flip the switch" a couple times in those games, but that's insanely hard when you went into it with the mental monologues of "I'm just here so I won't get fined" and "don't get hurt".)
I make zero predictions as to whether the 3s will drop when the playoffs start, but I'm confident the offense will look a lot snappier, the defense will be a lot more intense, and they'll actually try on the defensive glass. I bet it will feel like the 2022 Nets series, where they were almost too amped up and locked in from the tip.
(I know they tried to "flip the switch" a couple times in those games, but that's insanely hard when you went into it with the mental monologues of "I'm just here so I won't get fined" and "don't get hurt".)
I make zero predictions as to whether the 3s will drop when the playoffs start, but I'm confident the offense will look a lot snappier, the defense will be a lot more intense, and they'll actually try on the defensive glass. I bet it will feel like the 2022 Nets series, where they were almost too amped up and locked in from the tip.
Why didn't Walsh make the team photo? Isn't a rostered player? There are only 14 guys in the photo.
View: https://twitter.com/celtics/status/1779167248990580884
View: https://twitter.com/celtics/status/1779167248990580884
KP in his press conference was asked if their recent play was indicative of how they’ll show up in the playoffs.. his answer, “we may lose and we may get blown out in game one, but if I were allowed to put money down I’d bet that we’ll be ready and that we won’t”.. or something to that effect
It's dumb that a team can work really hard to earn a rest before the playoffs (that other teams don't get! Giannis got hurt trying hard!), and then have that used against them.
Tatum is going to have a similar challenge making 1st team All-NBA: "he didn't finish the season strong! What happened???"
Actually, for anyone frustrated with the Celtics lately, they can be relieved they didn't do what Denver just did last night: punt an 18-point halftime lead to the lowly Spurs, making it all but certain they will now drop to #2 (or #3) in the West from an assured #1 if they had just won their last two games.
Actually, looks like OKC and Minnesota are going up against Dallas and Phoenix -- so not a sure thing, but still, Denver's fate is now out of its hands, which isn't great.
Edit to add last line.
Actually, looks like OKC and Minnesota are going up against Dallas and Phoenix -- so not a sure thing, but still, Denver's fate is now out of its hands, which isn't great.
Edit to add last line.
Dallas is locked into 5, so they have nothing to really play for. Both OKC and MN are at home, as well, so Denver’s odds at the 1 seed are probably like 10-15% at best.
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Probably as simple as that he was in Maine on the day the photographer was there and he isn’t going to drive 8+ hours back and forth for a photo.
Huh? Portland is just under 2 hours by car from Boston (and closer to 90 minutes when doing it at 1am). Your conclusion is still likely correct.
