2022 Tennis

[jon abbey]

Damn, Cilic obliterated Medvedev, a lopsided draw got decidedly more lopsided day. Eight players remaining:

Top half:

Djokovic (1)/Nadal (5)
Zverev (3)/Alcaraz (6)

Bottom half:

Ruud (8)/Rune
Rublev (7)/Cilic (20)

There is a good chance that any of those top four players would make it to the finals from the bottom half.

 

[jsinger121]

The bottom half is a pile of crap. I agree on seeding by ranking for majors. That’s the best way to do it instead of some random draw.

 

[Conigliaro's Potential]

Fact of the matter is that Medvedev was overseeded and Alcaraz and Nadal are underseeded relative to their ability and form on clay. And that would still happen all the time anyway regardless of the system being used. It just so happens that this time the 1-8, 4-5, 2-7 and 3-6 matchups look better than the way the draw spat everyone out...but Nadal could easily be #4 in the world and Alcaraz #5, in which case the 1-8, 4-5 part of the draw would be just as top-heavy, and a random draw might actually distribute the talent more evenly.

And that's the last I'll say on this subject, except to note that it doesn't matter what system you use with the women, as their brackets are going to be screwed up by Round 3 no matter how you draw up the pairings.

 

[jon abbey]

Fact of the matter is that Medvedev was overseeded and Alcaraz and Nadal are underseeded relative to their ability and form on clay. And that would still happen all the time anyway regardless of the system being used.

Are there clay-only rankings (I genuinely don't know)? If there are, just do those 1-128 and then it would be really hard to complain (although people always find a way, heh).

 

[CFB_Rules]

Are there clay-only rankings (I genuinely don't know)? If there are, just do those 1-128 and then it would be really hard to complain (although people always find a way, heh).

No, but there should be. Not seeding according to exact seed isn't the problem here, the problem is that a clay tournament is using primarily hard court seedings.

Alcaraz/Nadal/Djokovic should be the top seeds here.

I liked the random draw of seeds back when there was a big three. Back then Federer could draw either Nadal or Djokovic in the Final. Straight seeding assumes that the world rankings are good.

 

[Apisith]

Two blockbuster matches today. Alcaraz and Djokovic are heavy favorites today. And with the night match being the Nadal v Djokovic one, the conditions are even more favorable for Djokovic. Bookies are giving better odds for Djokovic winning in 3 straight than 3-1. But this is Rafa at the French Open, man. Those are crazy odds, no? He's not going down without a fight. He was moving fine against FAA. He was generating power off the FH and BH.

 

[Apisith]

No, but there should be. Not seeding according to exact seed isn't the problem here, the problem is that a clay tournament is using primarily hard court seedings.

Alcaraz/Nadal/Djokovic should be the top seeds here.

I liked the random draw of seeds back when there was a big three. Back then Federer could draw either Nadal or Djokovic in the Final. Straight seeding assumes that the world rankings are good.

Rafa has only played 2 clay court tournaments this year and didn't make it past the QFs in either. Even if there was a clay court ranking, he wouldn't be ranked high. Tsitsipas, Alcaraz, Djokovic and Zverev would be ranked higher based on results.

 

[jon abbey]

Two blockbuster matches today. Alcaraz and Djokovic are heavy favorites today. And with the night match being the Nadal v Djokovic one, the conditions are even more favorable for Djokovic. Bookies are giving better odds for Djokovic winning in 3 straight than 3-1. But this is Rafa at the French Open, man. Those are crazy odds, no? He's not going down without a fight. He was moving fine against FAA. He was generating power off the FH and BH.

Yeah, that's pretty shocking to hear that those are the betting odds.

Really rooting/hoping for a Gauff/Fernandez semi, they both need to win once more first. Coco has to play Sloane Stephens who beat her badly at the US Open last year, good test.

 

[Apisith]

Tsitsipas on clay this year
500 M - Won
500 M - QF
1000 M - SF
1000 M - F

Alcaraz on clay this year
500 M - R32
500 M - Won
1000 M - Won
1000 M - Didn't play

Djokovic on clay this year
500 M - Didn't play
500 M - Didn't play
1000 M - SF
1000 M - Won

Zverev on clay this year
500 M - SF
500 M - Didn't play
1000 M - F
1000 M - SF

Tsitsipas and Djokovic have more points from last year's French as well, compared to Rafa. Zverev defending the same amount of points. So even if there was a clay court rankings, I don't think Rafa would be ranked higher than 5th.

 

[Apisith]

Nadal on clay this year
500 M - Didn't play
500 M - Didn't play
1000 M - QF
1000 M - R16

And he only has SF points from last year's French. I don't see any way that he would be ranked higher than 5th, but yeah, I mean, he's obviously in the top 3 based on likelihood of winning the whole thing.

 

[Conigliaro's Potential]

You guys should have this same discussion ahead of Wimbledon, where there are basically no grass court results of note to track.

 

[Conigliaro's Potential]

Martina Trevisan, who is currently at her peak WTA ranking of #59 and who before this week had only reached the Round of 16 in three previous WTA events, just survived a late wobble to defeat Leylah Fernandez. This was Trevisan's second Roland Garros quarterfinal - she lost to Swiatek as a qualifier in the quarters two years ago - but still, women's tennis is basically men's golf at this point: anyone can win in any given week, even at the majors.

 

[jon abbey]

Coco through also, into her first semi, 7-5, 6-2. She plays Trevisan for the right to lose to Swiatek in the final, heh.

 

[coremiller]

You guys should have this same discussion ahead of Wimbledon, where there are basically no grass court results of note to track.

As I'm sure you know, Wimbledon used to seed not off of straight rankings but adjusting for recent grass court success. I think they've stopped doing that now.

 

[Apisith]

Here we go.

 

[Apisith]

Zverev about to go up 2-0. He has been very solid. He's pinned Alcaraz back all match and his serving has been top notch.

 

[Conigliaro's Potential]

Zverev about to go up 2-0.

Or possibly not? Very tense game here at 5-4.

 

[Apisith]

Double faulted on set point, that's the Zverev we know.

 

[Conigliaro's Potential]

Zverev got there in the end...but Alcaraz had his chances.

 

[Apisith]

Set point, this time he serves an ace. Up 2-0.

If Zverev can serve like this consistently, he would win 10 slams. This is the best I've seen him serve in years.

Alcaraz spraying a ton of errors, very unlike him so far.

 

[Apisith]

What a game by Alcaraz. Into the 4th we go.

 

[Conigliaro's Potential]

@Apisith, for the record I always enjoy seeing Bobby Robson show up (in the form of your avatar).

 

[Apisith]

I like seeing it as well, heh.

What a point. Amazing. Zverev now with match point on serve.

 

[Conigliaro's Potential]

That...was a set of tennis. I don't like Zverev, but he deserved that in the end.

 

[Apisith]

What a winner on match point. That was really good from Zverev. If he serves like this, he’ll have a shot against Rafa or Novak.

 

[Apisith]

If the second point is any indication, this is going to be epic. I’m giggling in excitement.

 

[Apisith]

Rafa is dominating this.

 

[bosox4283]

Rafa is dominating this.

Is Rafa simply playing at his top level, or is Novak off?

 

[Apisith]

Novak breaks again! 3-3.

Rafa’s level in the first set was insane, and Novak’s was below his usual level. Now Rafa’s level has dropped quite a bit, but Novak is still not at his best.

 

[Conigliaro's Potential]

I've just come home from a church meeting...and I'm kinda astounded that it's after 11 p.m. in Paris and only 15 games have been played. This could run until 2 a.m., couldn't it?

 

[Apisith]

Game on!

 

[shawnrbu]

How many sets has Nadal lost up a double break at Roland Garros?

 

[jon abbey]

I've just come home from a church meeting...and I'm kinda astounded that it's after 11 p.m. in Paris and only 15 games have been played. This could run until 2 a.m., couldn't it?

They were lucky Alcaraz didn't pull out that 4th set, or it would have all been another hour later even.

 

[jon abbey]

Djokovic up in a set for once, 2-0 in the 4th.

 

[jon abbey]

Djokovic seems to lose a large percentage of points in which he tries a drop shot, he's not that good at them or the back and forth that sometimes results afterwards but I guess you need to still try them sometimes to keep your opponent honest.

4-1 Novak now, one break up.

 

[coremiller]

I just tried to find this match streaming and discovered it's only available through Tennis Channel Plus via a $110 annual subscription? Seriously, WTF.

 

[jon abbey]

I just tried to find this match streaming and discovered it's only available through Tennis Channel Plus via a $110 annual subscription? Seriously, WTF.

It's on regular Tennis Channel, but that is on cable, I guess.

 

[jon abbey]

5-3, Novak serving to take it to a 5th.

 

[Conigliaro's Potential]

I'm wondering...this has to be the latest (local time) that any grand slam match between two of Federer/Nadal/Djokovic will have ever finished, right? These late finishes never happen in the finals of tournaments, and they rarely happen during semifinals of the slams - and how many times have the Big Three ever faced each other before the semifinals?

 

[jon abbey]

I'm wondering...this has to be the latest (local time) that any grand slam match between two of Federer/Nadal/Djokovic will have ever finished, right? These late finishes never happen in the finals of tournaments, and they rarely happen during semifinals of the slams - and how many times have the Big Three ever faced each other before the semifinals?

That 2012 Aussie final ended around 1:30 AM, I believe they said earlier, but this would pass that if it goes 5.

Edit: 1:37 AM to be exact.

 

[jon abbey]

Nadal breaks back and then backs it up with a hold, 5-5 now.

 

[Conigliaro's Potential]

That 2012 Aussie final ended around 1:30 AM, I believe they said earlier, but this would pass that if it goes 5.

Edit: 1:37 AM to be exact.

Thanks. Pretty crazy, either way...and right now, it doesn't look like we're going 5. Still time for that to change, though!

 

[jon abbey]

Great win by Nadal, nice to see him finally break through here.

 

[jsinger121]

Rafa is 6-3 H2H against Zverev including 3-1 on clay.

 

[jon abbey]

If Cilic makes the final, he will be the first person to make all four Grand Slam finals in his career besides the big four in a long time, I think (Stan W never got past the quarters at Wimbledon). I saw a tweet about this the other day but can't find it now.

 

[jsinger121]

If Cilic makes the final, he will be the first person to make all four Grand Slam finals in his career besides the big four in a long time, I think (Stan W never got past the quarters at Wimbledon). I saw a tweet about this the other day but can't find it now.

Yup his best finish was QF in 14 and 15.

 

[jon abbey]

Thanks. Pretty crazy, either way...and right now, it doesn't look like we're going 5. Still time for that to change, though!

The Australian finals are I think always night matches, presumably so that they are on Saturday and Sunday AM respectively in Europe. That puts them around 4 AM in the US but that is evidently (understandably) less important. It took a match lasting 5:53 to run that late there though, today easily could have gone to 3 AM if both of those went to 5 sets.

 

[jezza1918]

5th set for Rublev-Cilic. Very much a hard court style of play match with short points and probably won't reach 4 hours...so shouldn't really affect either guy in the semis. One stat I heard was that Cilic is one of only 20 players in modern era to reach 2nd week of a slam 25+ times. As with everyone this era, hard to tell if he's underachieved on whole or simply just another casualty of the big 3.

 

[jezza1918]

Rublev saves a MP at 4-5 and then Cilic saves a break point at 5-5. And I was very much wrong on the 4 hour thing, which is strange because I don't recall being wrong before. Into a breaker now...

 

[jezza1918]

Cilic dominates the super breaker 10-2 to advance. It's not often Rublev is going to get "out-forehanded," but that's what happened today.