I actually give Patricia credit for helping modernize the Patriots defense. I’m struggling to find a link, but I recall reading that he pushed Bill to leverage technology and seemed to help transition them away from the 2 gapping 3-4 into the more multiple sets we see now.
I think people would have less of an issue over this if there weren't so many head scratching decisions in the draft. It's great when going against the grain works, but it looks much worse when you miss AND you're so far off from consensus. It's just hard to believe there's a working and successful "process" in place when you're draft strategy, that no one else understands or agrees with, sucks.
I think people would have less of an issue over this if there weren't so many head scratching decisions in the draft. It's great when going against the grain works, but it looks much worse when you miss AND you're so far off from consensus. It's just hard to believe there's a working and successful "process" in place when you're draft strategy, that no one else understands or agrees with, sucks.
The Patriots ranked 19th in defensive EPA/Play from 2010-2017 (and first in offensive EPA/Play). They had two defenses ranked in the top half by DVOA, not one above 11th in eight seasons of him calling defensive plays. The average Patricia defense ranked 20th in defensive DVOA over that timeframe, and the Patriots allowed 28.5 points per game in the Super Bowl with him as DC (and that's generous considering how much Pete Carroll contributed to bring down that average). He was a thoroughly mediocre coordinator who benefitted greatly from the best offense in the league during his tenure. This is actually one of my main gripes with them bringing back Patricia: he was below adequate with the Pats and then an utter joke in Detroit. It's not like we're calling upon 1986 Bill Belichick to take control of the offense.
The start of that period they had almost no playmakers in defense. Over the next few seasons, they drafted Hightower, McCourty, Chandler Jones, Jamie Collins, Trey Flowers, and signed Butler and Revis and Browner. By 2014, the D was quite good, which led to their holding Seattle in check most of the 2nd half.
Remember the quote Belichick said on the podium after Super Bowl 49 to Edelman and Gronkowski? “It’s a players game.” You can scheme up all you want but if you don’t have the horses the X&O’s don’t even matter.
2014 and 2015 were the best defenses the Patriots had under Patricia and they were worse than every single defense they've had since he left by EPA/Play and DVOA. Flores was better and Steve appears to be better as well.
Kraft’s offseason comments were almost 100% hot air. He is not Jerry Jones or any of these bloviating owners. Anything he says related to football is mostly mild PR fluff.
I don’t disagree with any of your points about the media’s agenda in all this, but I’m not as sanguine about the Krafts patience, or the strength of the relationship between Robert and BB. I think it’s always been, mostly, a pure business relationship, and not a particularly close personal one. And one predicated on Bill’s incredible success for most of it. And I was speculating on what might happen to that relationship once that success wanes, which was always inevitable if Bill stayed around long enough. Particularly after Brady’s departure. And just to clarify, under no set of circumstances would I imagine an in-season firing. But if this season ends up being a losing one, I don’t think Kraft moving on from Bill is as unlikely a scenario as it would’ve been until very recently.
I feel like if BB felt things slipping with Kraft, he would be the one to make the first move. Then again, he is coaching NFL football games with his sons, which has to be a joy, so perhaps he's incentivized to string this relationship out as long as possible. No idea what kind of jobs his sons could get outside of NE. Ultimately, I don't see this becoming a Bobby Bowden situation.
Steve has been calling plays for a defense that has been really productive since 2019 (3rd in EPA/Play in that timeframe). I bet he could get a job and have at least reasonable success elsewhere.
I'm sure he could get a job but will people be discounting his performance due to the presence of his dad? I mean, there are a million Shanahan's around so wouldn't surprise me to see someone take a shot on him.
I wouldn't. He's been miles better as defensive play caller than a guy like Patricia, and he got a HC job as a reward for his mediocrity while being under BB too. But the difference with Kyle Shannahan was he actively chose to build his career away from dad.
Yup, agreed. At some point, it probably makes sense for Steve to separate from the Pats...unless they have him as part of the post-BB plan, which is probably doubtful but who knows.
Shannahan got a big break when he hooked up with Gary Kubiack in Houston, who played and coached under Mike. Kyle then left to join his dad in Washington. Kyle charted more of his own path after that because his dad was done coaching.
This a great post.
This is excellent.
How do TV ratings of Patriot games affect Kraft's bottom line? I had always thought that, unlike other sports, the national centralization of NFL TV rights makes something like one team's ratings somewhat irrelevant to that team's bottom line. It certainly may be indicative of the fact that the team sucks, and a shitty team wont sell tickets, beer and shirts, but in and of itself I'm not sure how it matters.
You just described how it matters. Less people watching on TV is likely a sign the region is losing interest, and less interest on the team leads to all of the things you mentioned which in turn impact the valuation of the franchise. And that ratings fell off for the opener following a season in which they made the playoffs with a rookie QB could potentially light up a warning sign, that's all. It's obviously not a disaster or a harbinger of doom.
Isn't this just a fancy way of saying that if they suck no one is gonna watch or go to the game? All that aside, however, I think various posters have described pretty plausible reasons why "Week 1" ratings comparisons are not particularly useful.
Then you get the added bonus of a Beasley Reece level announcing crew Like it’s 1992 again.
Does he though? There's little chance the Pats will continue to do anything but grow exponentially more valuable with every new television, almost regardless of the on-field success. That's the beauty of owning an NFL team... you can't lose.
Kraft bought the team for $175M. Forbes recently valued the Patriots at well over $6B. The team could miss the playoffs for the next 5 seasons and Kraft would still be coming out way ahead of the game financially.
Bengals came in last at 3B per Forbes 2022. There are no money concerns here, unless some owner overleverages himself/herself. Kraft owns a bunch of other shit too, and the waiting list is ten miles wrong.
Only the Cowboys were rated higher by Forbes. 49’ers do not have better branding than the Pats.
I was expanding on the post by @Shelterdog speaking to the fact that Kraft has a lot of money tied up in the team, the stadium, Patriots place as revenue streams and the flow of money is dependent on them being a playoff team. Who's going to want to go to Patriots place and hang out in the bars there and spend a fortune on booze and food if the team stinks? My youngest sister met up with friends at one such bar down there, she had less than a great time.
Patriot Place is open 350-something days a year when the Patriots aren't playing, too. The businesses can't just be dependent on gameday foot traffic.
+1. Between concerts, soccer games, and many other events at the stadium itself, and general shopping/dining trips, there is plenty of activity in Foxboro beyond the Patriots' regular season home games and away game telecasts.
My impression is they are pretty big in Brazil, to the extent an NFL team can be "big" there. And Tom Brady is probably the only football player anyone has heard of outside of the US.
The Patriots are pretty big here in Brazil, but if they keep treading water a whole lot of people will jump ship to a winning team with an exciting young QB or whatever because there aren't deep family/region ties to franchises for most fans. Of course there is a significant number of diehards, but the vast majority of the community isn't comprised of those and honestly Brady is a much, much bigger deal in Brazil than the Pats. Now that they aren't one and the same, who knows how if affects the fandom. And I'm sure it's similar elsewhere globally.
This makes sense, but on the other hand I think the Celtics were also the biggest fanbase in Brazil and that dates back to the NBA first getting on TV there in the 80s. The suckitude of the Celtics for a decade+ didn't seem to hamper their support too much.
The Cowboys, Broncos, Packers and 49ers were far and away the biggest NFL fanbases in Brazil in the late 90's/early 2000's and by the latter part of the decade they had easily been supplanted by Patriots and Colts fans, though. It's less that the Brazilian Patriots fans will migrate en mass to another team and more that the Chiefs/Bills/Chargers will likely grow their fanbases at a much faster rate. The Pats are still solidly the team with the biggest following here, no doubt about it.
He was happy last week too, facing a rookie HC and Tua who is he now 0-4 against.
I just think he feels the team needs a lighter environment right now, maybe guys are beating themselves up or lack confidence, but he was pretty upbeat before the opener as well.
One he's always nicer on Fridays. Always. [Ed: Reiss mentions it but I guess on Friday there are a lot fewer people there, it's really just the more diligent reporters usually, so BB treats them with more respect.]
