2022 Offseason

cshea

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Marchand - XXX - DeBrusk
Hall - Haula - Pastrnak
Frederic - Coyle - Smith
Foligno - Nosek - Wagner


Lindholm - McAvoy
Grzelyck - Carlo
Reilly - Clifton
Forbort - Zboril

Ullmark
Swayman

By my math, that lineup of 21 players costs $79.35 million against the cap, leaving $3.15 mm as free to play with as the cap is reportedly going to go up to $82.5 million.

A Foligno buyout would free up ~$1.93 million against this seasons cap and add $933K to 23-24. They could save another $633K with a Wagner buyout, but I think I'd rather bury him again. Maybe he can be included in a cap dump trade since he's inexpensive and entering the final year of the contract. He's only making $1 million in real money so that could help facilitate a trade to a cap floor team. The Foligno contract feels imovable. The structure might be enticing as he's due a $1 million bonus on 7/1 (or whatever the opening of free agency is this year) then has a $2.8 million salary, but he's got a no-move and 16 team no-trade. I think this one gets bought out.

DeBrusk's trade demand, as far as we know, remains on the table. That's $4 million that could go out the door. They seem very high on Lysell who could theoretically take DeBrusk's spot on an ELC.

I thinkk they also need to move a defenseman. They've got 8 signed right now. I know they value depth to cover for inuries, but I don't see how Grzelyck, Reilly and Forbort can coexist on the roster. Too much money would be in the press box at full health. I think one of Grzelyck/Rielly goes. They can cover themselves depth wise with Ahcan (RFA) and signing a Steven Kampfer/Josh Brown type. I will say, I believe I've said for about 6 years running that they have too many defenseman and they need to trade someone but they almost never do. The only time I remember it happening was McQuaid. And even that felt like they ran the runway out until they had no choice.

If they clear DeBrusk + a defenseman for futures, then they're in the $10 million range of available cap space. That's nice to have but there's not much interesting on the market. Gaudreau is the top FA but he probably stays in Calgary and isn't really a positional fit for Boston (LW). The UFA C market is pretty brutal. It's a bunch of aging stars (Bergeron, Malkin, Giroux), youngish guys who won't be worth the contracts they are likely to get (Trochek, Strome), and then a tweener between both groups, Nazem Kadri. On the right, Filip Forsberg is a UFA and would probably fit better than Gaudreau but that would essntially mean ignoring the center position and just loading up on the wings.
 

cshea

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I was at a party yesterday and had to fend off a bunch of "Bergeron's going to Montreal!!" takes because of Tony effin Amonte.
 

RedOctober3829

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What's the story with Jack Studnicka? Is he ever going to amount to anything at the NHL level? Seems like they didn't really maximize his potential and his trade value is next to nothing at this point. Are they going to give him a real chance to play center?
 

MiracleOfO2704

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I mean, does Amonte even know a thing about this team? I saw it here and on Twitter from people (here was repeating Amonte, Twitter was referencing Amonte, if that makes sense), and just from the things I remember from Bergeron interviews and quips over the years, I knew he grew up a Nordiques fan.

Moral of the Story: Boston sports media makes up for their lack of knowledge with an abundance of bluster and volume.
What's the story with Jack Studnicka? Is he ever going to amount to anything at the NHL level? Seems like they didn't really maximize his potential and his trade value is next to nothing at this point. Are they going to give him a real chance to play center?
My take: either they never valued him as an NHL impact player or only the fans did (Wheeler has always been bearish on him). If Bergeron retires, he may get his shot, but it’d likely be 3rd line with Smith and Frederic at best, 4th line wing with Nosek-Foligno at worst.
 

jsinger121

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And why the fuck would Bergeron want to play for Montreal which is a shitty team. They are much worse than Boston. To me it’s either Boston going year to year or retirement.
 

RedOctober3829

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I mean, does Amonte even know a thing about this team? I saw it here and on Twitter from people (here was repeating Amonte, Twitter was referencing Amonte, if that makes sense), and just from the things I remember from Bergeron interviews and quips over the years, I knew he grew up a Nordiques fan.

Moral of the Story: Boston sports media makes up for their lack of knowledge with an abundance of bluster and volume.

My take: either they never valued him as an NHL impact player or only the fans did (Wheeler has always been bearish on him). If Bergeron retires, he may get his shot, but it’d likely be 3rd line with Smith and Frederic at best, 4th line wing with Nosek-Foligno at worst.
I did just read that Studnicka is a restricted free agent, so if somebody is interested they could offer sheet him but that is not likely. Dom thinks he'll get a deal similar to Oskar Steen which is in the $800k range and he'll be at Providence.
 

cshea

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One thing to note on Studnicka is that he is losing his waivers exemption. He is the type of player that would be picked up in a hurry. Young, cheap, draft pedigree, decent/good AHL numbers. I don't think sign and stash is a plausible route here. Either the trade him, or sign him and keep him on the roster until they give up.
 

amfox1

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Matt Grzelcyk will have shoulder surgery. Dealt with dislocation on and off for the past 50 games or so. Will miss start of next season


Wow. Apparently, the injury occurred in mid-January vs. Islanders. That would explain his diminished effectiveness since then.
 

Salem's Lot

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Matt Grzelcyk will have shoulder surgery. Dealt with dislocation on and off for the past 50 games or so. Will miss start of next season


Wow. Apparently, the injury occurred in mid-January vs. Islanders. That would explain his diminished effectiveness since then.
He’s obviously a really tough kid for playing through that, but why didn’t they just have him get surgery in January? It wasn’t like he was magically going to play better in the playoffs with bad shoulder. Now he’s going to miss time next year. I don’t get it.
 

burstnbloom

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I still think they probably move Reilly. It's clear they value Forbort (inexplicably) and they have some replacement depth for LHD in Zboril, Achan and Callahan. I don't think they will miss an opportunity to clear $3m in cap space even with the uncertainty around Gryz's shoulder. They will also know a lot more before having to make a decision for sure. Gryz will have a procedure soon and the draft is almost 2 months away. They will have a handle on prognosis and timeline by then and will act accordingly.
 

TSC

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I just want to remind everyone that despite our defensive “depth,” there was a point this post season when the Bruins had both Forbort AND Josh Brown starting in a game.
 

RedOctober3829

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Fluto was on T&R this morning and he's pretty convinced Bergeron is retiring. From all of the hugs after the game to his kids being at the last press conference at home to Marchand being so emotional talking about him after Game 7. Also with bringing his kids to the ASG this year.
 

cshea

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I just want to remind everyone that despite our defensive “depth,” there was a point this post season when the Bruins had both Forbort AND Josh Brown starting in a game.
The salary is the problem. It's not ideal to spend $3 million on a 7th defenseman who sits in the press box. Ahcan can probably replace Reilly's production at a half the cost. Ahcan made $925,000 this year so figure a bump up north of $1 million.

Defensive depth is pretty much always going to stink. No team in the league is has good players at 7-9 on their depth chart. Might as well go cheap with the Kampfer and Brown's of the world.
 

burstnbloom

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They definitely need more bodies on defense for depth purposes. I expect they will sign some vet min guys and there's going to be some turnover in Providence of those types as well, but I'd be really surprised if they go into the season expecting a $3m player to sit in the press box from the back end.
 

Haunted

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Coming back to CSHEA's post, updating for Gryz:

Marchand - XXX - DeBrusk
Hall - Haula - Pastrnak
Frederic - Coyle - Smith
Foligno - Nosek - Wagner


Lindholm - McAvoy
Reilly - Carlo
Forbort - Clifton
Zboril

Ullmark
Swayman

LTIR:
Grzelyck?



That just isn't a good team if Bergeron retires. There's lots of talent there but I feel like that's a 2nd round playoff team at its absolute peak. And with their relative dearth of prospects and draft picks, I'm not sure what wiggle room they'd have for in-season improvements. Count me as someone with little faith in this management group's ability to turn this around, and that bums me out. I don't have any real idea how to improve this team short of a substantive retooling, but as many pointed out, will this ownership group accept a few terrible years?
 

RedOctober3829

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Coming back to CSHEA's post, updating for Gryz:

Marchand - XXX - DeBrusk
Hall - Haula - Pastrnak
Frederic - Coyle - Smith
Foligno - Nosek - Wagner


Lindholm - McAvoy
Reilly - Carlo
Forbort - Clifton
Zboril

Ullmark
Swayman

LTIR:
Grzelyck?



That just isn't a good team if Bergeron retires. There's lots of talent there but I feel like that's a 2nd round playoff team at its absolute peak. And with their relative dearth of prospects and draft picks, I'm not sure what wiggle room they'd have for in-season improvements. Count me as someone with little faith in this management group's ability to turn this around, and that bums me out. I don't have any real idea how to improve this team short of a substantive retooling, but as many pointed out, will this ownership group accept a few terrible years?
This team is the definition of purgatory. Good enough to make the playoffs, but not good enough to win the Cup. The worst possible situation to be in.
 

Salem's Lot

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This team is the definition of purgatory. Good enough to make the playoffs, but not good enough to win the Cup. The worst possible situation to be in.
I’m not sure that team on paper is good enough to make the playoffs. Beecher or Studnicka probably make the team for the vacant center spot. I wouldn’t be confident picking them to make the playoffs with Coyle & Haula as the top 2 centers. Teams like Ottawa, the Islanders, Detroit, even Buffalo are all going to be better than they were this year.
 

Haunted

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You're likely correct. Bergeron's presence gets them where they were this year. His absence drops them further.

Being mediocre is the worst position to be in.
 

cshea

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I’m not sure that team on paper is good enough to make the playoffs. Beecher or Studnicka probably make the team for the vacant center spot. I wouldn’t be confident picking them to make the playoffs with Coyle & Haula as the top 2 centers. Teams like Ottawa, the Islanders, Detroit, even Buffalo are all going to be better than they were this year.
Let's not get too crazy. There was a 32+ point gap between the Bruins and Detroit/Ottawa/Buffalo. Bergeron isn't worth 32 points in the standings, nobody is. Even if he's worth, say, 10 points, those other teams need to improve by 20 points to even get close. A 20 point year to year gain in the NHL is almost unheard of. And those teams have sucked for a decade and shown no indication they are suddenly going to figure it out. I guess there's a plausible argument that the Islanders improve by 5 wins and the Bruins lose 5 wins without Bergeron and it becomes something of a race, but that's still pretty generous. Not to mention the Penguins and Capitals potentially fading and the Rangers regressing.

Purgatory is more apt. They will make the playoffs. They will not win a Stanley Cup.
 

RedOctober3829

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I don’t want Bergeron to retire, yet.

But if he does, Johnny Gaudreau is a UFA at the end of this season…
They won't likely be able to add anybody of substance this offseason even if Bergy retires. McAvoy's extension kicks in so that takes away most of what Bergy's salary was plus Lindholm gets an almost $4 million raise from his cap hit this year on his extension. They'd have to trade somebody off the roster to add somebody significant. CapFriendly has them at $80.1 million and that's without Bergeron.
 

cshea

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That just feels like a tough one. Since he's a LW, they'd probably have to move Hall or Marchand to open up a roster and cap space. Gaudreau is coming off a 115 point season so I can't imagine he signs for less than $11 million. I don't see how they can fit a contract like that in plus re-sign Pastrnak. I'd rather pay Pastrnak.

Filip Forsberg may make a little more sense if they try to load up on the wings. He's a LW too but a right shot so may be able to play there. He's coming off a career year but I don't think he'll be quite as expensive as Gaudreau, maybe closer to $8-$9 million. They could basically role out Marchand/Forsberg and Hall/Pastrnak as the drivers of the top two lines and plop Haula and Coyle in between them and be pretty good. That's sort of what Vegas was doing before they acquired Eichel, and it got them to two conference finals and 1 Cup appearance so it can work. They had monsters on the wing (Pacioretty/Stone/Smith/Marchessault/Tuch) with underwhelming centers (Karlsson, Chandler Stephenson, the one and only Erik Haula, Cody Eakin, etc.). In a scenario where the Bruins bring in a bonafide top 6 winger they can trade DeBrusk ($4 million) and Smith ($3.1 million on an expiring deal) for futures to clear out cap space. Even then, they still may have trouble fitting a Pastrnak extension in.

I don't think the current front office would consider trying something outside the box like this. They're too conservative.
 

cshea

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Friedman on the Bruins and DeBrusk:

Whether or not Patrice Bergeron returns next season, the Bruins will invest in offence. As part of that, they’ve made it very clear they’d like Jake DeBrusk to be in their future. “I was proud of the way he played,” Bruins head coach Bruce Cassidy said. (The organization made a point of telling him that in-person, too.) The forward has not rescinded his trade request — and will take some time to think about it — but DeBrusk handled himself extremely well. Sometimes a relationship needs to hit rock bottom before it can improve, and at least one teammate felt DeBrusk saying what was on his mind emotionally freed him to play his best. Another thing that helps: his contract is in-place for the next two seasons, so there’s no need for a negotiation.
 

PedroSpecialK

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He’s obviously a really tough kid for playing through that, but why didn’t they just have him get surgery in January? It wasn’t like he was magically going to play better in the playoffs with bad shoulder. Now he’s going to miss time next year. I don’t get it.
At the very least, not shutting him down or trying to let him rest / rehab it if possible is bewildering. Playoffs had long since been sewn up - just shooting yourself in the foot to end up scratching what should be a top-4 guy in consecutive elimination games because he was getting hit by guys on fucking Ottawa and Buffalo for four months.

I have some thoughts but nothing concrete enough to really expound on. Long story short, Bergeron gone sets the rebuild in motion, and of the current roster I'd expect McAvoy, Lindholm, Swayman, and some deadweight like Carlo / Coyle to be around for the transition period of it. Carlo especially bums me out - 5 more years at $4.1m AAV for a guy who's been the worst defender on the ice some nights is really not good. Obligatory fuck Tom Wilson, since it certainly doesn't look like the 2018-19 Carlo is coming back.

The amount of eventual impact ELCs they could get back for Pastrnak, Marchand, Hall, etc would be worth kicking the tires on at least, since they can periodically backfill their production (less efficiently) through UFA. They could also explore what GMs that are good at asset management do: sign guys in UFA and flip them for draft picks later. A guy like Haula is a prime example - another year at $2.375m for a solid middle 6 C should net you at least a 2nd come deadline day, and probably a first given Paul Gaustad got traded for one. Craig Smith - similar deal. Maybe if Sweeney is hired elsewhere he'll give up a 2nd and 4th for him, like Lee Stempniak's corpse that they'd passed on in training camp.

I am with @veritas - I think if the rebuild is set in motion this year, Pastrnak looks to potentially sign with a team closer to contending again, and you have to explore cashing in on him if an extension is a non-starter right now. Thank the lord they signed McAvoy when they did. I'll be over the moon if 7/1 comes and Pastrnak is signed to 8/$9.25m or something - but I'm not expecting it.

And yeah lastly - I am with those who think Sweeney might not be the guy for a transition period; he did fine banking cap space to use in UFA this year, then he invested nearly 15% of his cap space into Forbort, Ullmark, and Foligno. That is not what winning teams do. I am embittered by this core not netting another Cup, mainly because Chara, Rask, Bergeron, etc deserved one - but ultimately that group got to a game 7 on home ice. Gotta give Sweeney credit for that, not so much where this team is now.
 
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cshea

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With regards to Pastrnak, they do need to find out his plans. I would hope to get something done long term similar to McAvoy, but if he wavers or insists he wants to reach free agency, they have to seriously consider trading him. They are not in the position to run out the clock, make a run, and let him leave for nothing. As far as I know he's never said a bad word about Boston and appears to love it here so I would think they can get a contract done, but who knows.

I can't fathom what the return would be. It'd be like Washington trading a 26 year old Ovechkin.
 

Salem's Lot

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I have zero faith in this current management group to get good value for Pastrnak in a trade. It would probably look something like the Seguin deal. Hopefully he really wants to work with them on an extension.
 

burstnbloom

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With regards to Pastrnak, they do need to find out his plans. I would hope to get something done long term similar to McAvoy, but if he wavers or insists he wants to reach free agency, they have to seriously consider trading him. They are not in the position to run out the clock, make a run, and let him leave for nothing. As far as I know he's never said a bad word about Boston and appears to love it here so I would think they can get a contract done, but who knows.

I can't fathom what the return would be. It'd be like Washington trading a 26 year old Ovechkin.
I would think it would look something like the Matt Duchene trade. He was 27, coming off a second contract and he netted the Avalanche Sam Girard, Shane Bowers, Ottawa's 1st (Byram), Kamanev, a 2nd and a third. Pasta has more value so I'd guess it would look like:

Roster player
High level prospect
1st rounder
2nd rounder

You have to expect it would be a contending team on the ascent so lets do the Kings:

Gabe Vilardi
Brock Faber
1st Rounder (likely 18-24ish)
2nd rounder (likely 48-54ish)

It would be a good package but..meh. I'd much rather throw money at Pasta.
 

lexrageorge

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Pastrnak does have a 10 team NTC, fwiw. I'd much prefer an extension than a trade. About a 5% chance they get back anyone remotely approaching Pastrnak's production (draft picks are still crapshoots for even the best drafting teams), and 10 pennies for $100 type trades (a-la Seguin and Thornton) hardly ever work out.
 

Haunted

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Pastrnak does have a 10 team NTC, fwiw. I'd much prefer an extension than a trade. About a 5% chance they get back anyone remotely approaching Pastrnak's production (draft picks are still crapshoots for even the best drafting teams), and 10 pennies for $100 type trades (a-la Seguin and Thornton) hardly ever work out.
I agree, and I've always felt like the Bruins would try to squeeze two quarters together and make five nickels... and then tell us that 5 > 2. Maybe that's just my silly perception.
 

cshea

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The best comp I could come up with, and it's not perfect, is the Erik Karlsson to San Jose trade. Karlsson was top 5 at his position, entering the final year of his 2nd contract with an AAV around $6.5 million, and a year away from free agency. YMMV on if a top 5 right D is more valuable than a top 5 scoring RW. Ottawa netted:

Dylan DeMelo
Chris Tierney
Rudolfs Balcers
Josh Norris' signing rights
2020 1st round pick
2019 2nd round pick
2021 2nd round pick that was conditional on him signing an extension
Conditional 1stif SJS traded Karlsson back to an Eastern Conference team (they did not so it didn't transfer)

There was a whole host of conditions on the first two picks that could've shuffled the years around but that's essentially want the deal worked out. Tierney and DeMelo were young, cheap NHL players. Tierney a decent middle 6 center, DeMelo a bottom pairing D. At the time, Norris was SJS' first round pick so a top 50ish prospect at that point, Balcers was an AHL prospect (similar to say, Steen), plus the picks. San Jose ended up bottoming out so the 2020 1st was 3rd overall (Stutzle). On the whole, Ottawa made out well. They hit jackpot on the 1st round pick (Stutzle), Norris has been a hit, Tierney a meh F, and they flipped DeMelo to WPG for a 3rd a few years ago. Of course the cautionary tale here is that although Ottawa received a good return, part of it was because of San Jose's misfortune, and Ottawa still sucks 4 years later so it hasn't really been franchise altering.

I can't come up with many forwad trades. They just don't happen. The Eichel trade was a good one for Buffalo but I don't think we can use that as a comp due to Eichel's injury concerns and contract situation. Panarin to CBJ came to mind, but that was basically for Brandon Saad straight up. Panarin had an extra year on his deal at the time of that trade too. Finally, Dubois for Laine. That was two disgruntled RFA's who wanted out.

All in all, the team that trades the stud usually ends up on the wrong end of it or can't dig out. Very rare to trade a franchise player and improve. They'll have to consider it if Pastrnak wants out, but I'd much rather hand him an 8-year big money extension.
 

Salem's Lot

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Neely is not going anywhere unless and until the team is sold.
Neely is basically Larry Lucchino at this point. The Jacobs pay him to run the Bruins. He gets a budget and they expect the return on investment to meet his projections (just like FSG does with any of their businesses) Other than that, it’s his show to run. Like Lucchino, he will probably be in that role until he retires or the team gets sold.
 

veritas

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I’m not suggesting trading Pasta for a pu-pu platter, unless it was a ridiculous offer. Barzal and Larkin are two similar age/contract players. I don’t think Larkin is enough and I don’t think the Bruins would value Barzal enough.

Here’s a crazy idea whether or not Bergeron returns: Pasta for Sid. The trade is one for one.