2022 HOF Candidates: Ortiz and Papelbon First Time on Ballot

Leather

given himself a skunk spot
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
28,451
Or maybe the plaques honoring Mike Mussina and Roy Halladay will become the norm in the future. The caps on their plaques have no team logo at all.
In both cases, that's what the player/their representative requested. The point being: if it's debatable, the player gets to pick. That's the HOF's way of dealing with it.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 23, 2009
21,320
Maine
In both cases, that's what the player/their representative requested. The point being: if it's debatable, the player gets to pick. That's the HOF's way of dealing with it.
I'm aware that it was their decision. My point is that instead of debates and discussions about which cap the player should be enshrined with, the simplest thing to do is just stop putting team logos on the caps at all.
 

Leather

given himself a skunk spot
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
28,451
I'm aware that it was their decision. My point is that instead of debates and discussions about which cap the player should be enshrined with, the simplest thing to do is just stop putting team logos on the caps at all.
I think that decision would be really unpopular among fans and teams. There's a reason why TB wanted Boggs to wear their hat.
 

Philip Jeff Frye

Member
SoSH Member
Oct 23, 2001
10,403
I'm aware that it was their decision. My point is that instead of debates and discussions about which cap the player should be enshrined with, the simplest thing to do is just stop putting team logos on the caps at all.
Are people really losing that much sleep over this?
 

OCD SS

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Are people really losing that much sleep over this?
I don’t think so, unless most of the people in this thread are in Asian or European time zones. Most of the posts are during the waking (or work) hours of the average American residing on the East coast.

Depending on where they live, their occupation, and certain other proclivities, Mueller's Twin Grannies was maybe on the edge, but RobertS975 & Bosoxian should definitely have been in bed.
 

Bosoxian

New Member
Aug 17, 2021
177
I recall this differently.

I thought it came to head (no pun intended) when Wade Boggs signed with TB. One of the terms in his contract was that he would go in with a TB Ray cap. The Hall didn't take too kindly to someone being able to monetize the honor.
I think we’re going along similar lines. Winfield did not want to go in as a MFY, mostly because of his issues with George, even though he’d spent more time with them. He really pushed the issue.
Then when Boggs essentially put his HOF cap up for sale (I knew someone else had done this, forgot it was Boggs), the HOF stepped in and said that they had final say
 

Red(s)HawksFan

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 23, 2009
21,320
Maine
Jeff Kent is the only guy the CHB voted for?
His explanation is that Kent is the only worthy candidate without a hint of scandal or cheating on or off the field.

I know Kent and Bonds weren't buddies or anything, but I'll throw a whiff of cheating at him just for being on the same team. He saw a curious spike in his power numbers after arriving in San Fran and hit a career high in HR at age 34 playing home games in a decidedly unfriendly HR park.


To be truthful, I don't suspect or really care if he used anything. I just don't see how Shag can claim he's the only clean one because he was overshadowed on the drug front by his teammate. Maybe absent Bonds' presence, Kent gets more scrutiny for that power-surge.
 

Deweys New Stance

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 8, 2001
2,945
Here to Eternity
His explanation is that Kent is the only worthy candidate without a hint of scandal or cheating on or off the field.
That's quite a diss on Scott Rolen, who had pretty similar offensive numbers to Kent and significantly higher career WAR factoring in superior defense. Not that a dinosaur like Shank even is aware of that. I almost wonder if part of his internal rationale for the lone vote for Kent is to avoid getting lumped in with the blank ballot crowd. And going with Kent is also a subtle shot at Bonds.
 

Dahabenzapple2

Mr. McGuire / Axl's Counter
SoSH Member
Jun 20, 2011
8,950
Wayne, NJ
That's quite a diss on Scott Rolen, who had pretty similar offensive numbers to Kent and significantly higher career WAR factoring in superior defense. Not that a dinosaur like Shank even is aware of that. I almost wonder if part of his internal rationale for the lone vote for Kent is to avoid getting lumped in with the blank ballot crowd. And going with Kent is also a subtle shot at Bonds.
Funny thing is the traditional big numbers (especially RBI) that Kent put up were in a significant way due to Uber Bonds batting in front of him.
 

Deweys New Stance

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 8, 2001
2,945
Here to Eternity
With ~41% of the vote in, Papi has been selected on 83.6% of the known ballots and needs to be selected on ~69% of the remaining ballots to reach 75% for election:
https://onedrive.live.com/view.aspx?resid=F2E5D8FC5199DFAF!39939&ithint=file,xlsx&authkey=!AK9u16pmWGGlQsI

Twitter thread by HoF forecaster Jason Sardell. His model now has Papi getting elected in 98% of simulations, but he acknowledges that the model is likely overestimating Ortiz' support level as the greater % of private voters still out there likely have higher biases against 1st time candidates, DHs, suspected PED users etc. With that said, he's certainly doing a lot better to this point than I could have possibly hoped for. Crossing fingers.

View: https://twitter.com/sarsdell/status/1481062055775981569?s=20


Jason Sardell
@sarsdell
·
3h
With 159 ballots in
@NotMrTibbs
’s Tracker, it looks like there’s a very good chance David Ortiz will be elected to the Hall of Fame this year. But there are a few reasons to think that my model may be overestimating his chances.

Jason Sardell
@sarsdell
1st-time candidates are harder to predict, and my model has often overestimated support amongst the top players. Differences between final model prediction and actual results:
Roy Halladay: -4.7%
Jim Thome: -2.2%
Ivan Rodriguez: -1.0%
 

donutogre

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2005
3,270
Philadelphia
I know 100 times over that I shouldn't take Shaughnessy's bait, but god that asshole really needs to not have a vote. He's such an embarrassment.
 

RobertS975

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 28, 2005
369
I know 100 times over that I shouldn't take Shaughnessy's bait, but god that asshole really needs to not have a vote. He's such an embarrassment.
He has always been one of those guys that has some innate need to take the contrary side of everything! If you stated that water was wet, he'd argue with you.
 

RobertS975

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 28, 2005
369
With about half of the ballots now having been made public, Big Papi is sitting at a comfortable 84%. The only other players in the running are Bonds and Clemens, who sit a tick over the 75 % threshold. Not sure why, but people who claim to be expert HOF "poll watchers" feel that those two will likely lose ground when the unpublished votes are finally revealed next Tuesday.
 

The Mort Report

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 5, 2007
7,424
Concord
With about half of the ballots now having been made public, Big Papi is sitting at a comfortable 84%. The only other players in the running are Bonds and Clemens, who sit a tick over the 75 % threshold. Not sure why, but people who claim to be expert HOF "poll watchers" feel that those two will likely lose ground when the unpublished votes are finally revealed next Tuesday.
It’s actually this Tuesday. And from what I’ve read, voters who don’t announce their ballots early tend to lean to older, more traditional voters, who are less likely to look past PED stuff or ding a player for being a DH
 

LogansDad

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 15, 2006
30,499
Alamogordo
I don't think you need to be an expert to draw that conclusion. They've both dropped significantly each year from pre-result public voting to the final tally. I actually think Papi will get in, but will be much closer than it currently looks, and I suspect Bonds and Clemens will miss by a not insignificant margin (probably right around 70%, woukd be my WAG) .
 

JimD

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 29, 2001
8,713
I'm so nervous for tomorrow - I want this for Papi (and all of us) so much.
 

Deweys New Stance

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 8, 2001
2,945
Here to Eternity
So on the eve of the results being announced, Papi now needs an estimated 135 (66.2%) of the remaining undisclosed ballots cast to reach 75%. He actually did really well on the ballots that were revealed today, which brought him up to 84.6% of the total disclosed ballots:

View: https://twitter.com/NotMrTibbs/status/1485796640468262914?s=20

Ryan Thibodaux
@NotMrTibbs
·
2h
At 188 ballots/~48.0% known:

Ortiz - 84.6%
Bonds - 77.7%
Clemens - 76.6%


I still worry a bit that too many of those remaining ~204 ballots will be cast by fogies with axes to grind, but I'll take the fact that he's been building momentum into the announcement as a positive sign. At the very least, I think it's pretty clear that he's getting in through the writers' vote at some point, even if he ends up a bit shy of the mark this year.
 

Average Reds

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 24, 2007
35,555
Southwestern CT
How Sheffield is above both Arod and Manny is beyond my comprehension.
He testified to the grand jury investigating Barry Bonds. (I think he also testified at his perjury trial.) His claim - that he paid $10,000 for “the clear” and “the cream” thinking that they were flax seed oil or some such nonsense - is absurd on its face, but it’s all baseball writers need to pretend that he isn’t a steroid user.
 

Max Power

thai good. you like shirt?
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2005
8,181
Boston, MA
How Sheffield is above both Arod and Manny is beyond my comprehension.
His best years were before the testing era and he was never suspended. Some writers see using steroids when it was encouraged by MLB as different than when it got you into trouble.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 23, 2009
21,320
Maine
Wow, Omar Vizquel's candidacy has really fallen off the face of the earth, hasn't it?
Deservedly so. He's always been borderline at best, and he was probably picking up votes just by being one of the non-PED suspected candidates. Then he was revealed to be a very toxic candidate himself.
 

Philip Jeff Frye

Member
SoSH Member
Oct 23, 2001
10,403
Book early! It's in the middle of nowhere and there's not too many choices. We stayed at a nice bed and breakfast when visiting a few years ago but it wasn't during induction celebrations.
 

Niastri

Member
SoSH Member
Has anybody gone to Cooperstown for the induction before? If Papi gets in, I am seriously considering going. What's the lodging situation like?
Rent a sleeper van or something similar. If you aren't already booked, you are probably going to have to stay an hour drive or more away.

There isn't enough demand the rest of the year to support the number of hotels the HoF ceremony requires.

There is also significant price gouging.
 

CarolinaBeerGuy

Don't know him from Adam
SoSH Member
Mar 14, 2006
10,333
Kernersville, NC
My grandfather and I went in 2001, but our experience was similar to what was previously posted. We ended up staying about an hour or so away because we didn't book early enough. I'd love to go back at some point. I'm hoping my 7 year old daughter will eventually fall in love with baseball like I did as a kid.
 

Rovin Romine

Johnny Rico
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
25,763
Miami (oh, Miami!)
He testified to the grand jury investigating Barry Bonds. (I think he also testified at his perjury trial.) His claim - that he paid $10,000 for “the clear” and “the cream” thinking that they were flax seed oil or some such nonsense - is absurd on its face, but it’s all baseball writers need to pretend that he isn’t a steroid user.
I have a half-empty bottle of olive oil in my cupboard I'd be willing to let go for $2,500.
 

lars10

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2007
12,535
He has always been one of those guys that has some innate need to take the contrary side of everything! If you stated that water was wet, he'd argue with you.
Dan’s vote is always about himself.. there’s no reason he should still have one. He’s one of the reasons Boston sports radio was/is so absolutely miserable in an era where all Boston’s teams were doing was winning. He never got over his ‘curse’ being over and is happiest when the Sox are losing.