2022-23 Bruins Season

FL4WL3SS

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I agree they should be looking for an upgrade, but it wouldn’t just be replacing say Toews for Trent. They have to trade salary out, and I don’t think throwing Smith into a deal gets them there. They would have to subtract from elsewhere too I believe
Yep that's the point, now you're shifting a whole bunch of stuff around for what? Maybe a marginal upgrade this season.

Now if they are doing it because they want to solidify their top 3 lines going into the playoffs, that's a whole nother story.
 

The Mort Report

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Yep that's the point, now you're shifting a whole bunch of stuff around for what? Maybe a marginal upgrade this season.

Now if they are doing it because they want to solidify their top 3 lines going into the playoffs, that's a whole nother story.
Agreed. Though the only path to a viable upgrade to me is upgrading Carlo. Between him and Smith, that’s 7 mil, and if you can nab another Lindholm type with picks, I’d do that. I think our forwards group will mostly remain unchanged at its core.

Of course if someone gets knocked out for the year, that changes the math. And because of that unless they get a can’t miss opportunity I imagine they wait
 

cshea

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Smith + Reilly is up to $6 million ($4.975 in AAV right now with a portion of Reilly buttons) in salary they can use to match salaries / clear cap without upsetting the apple cart. Reilly is already out of the picture and has reportedly asked for a trade. Smith’s spot on the team is tenuous and he is probably one or two mild injuries away from finding himself in Providence as well.
 

The B’s Knees

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It looks like Vancouver is shopping Bo Horvat.
He's on an expiring contract at $5.5 million.
I'd much rather have Horvat on a sign and trade to lock up a 1-2 center long term, than take on Toews or Kane.
If Bergy and Krejci are gone next year (and Zacha?), this team has serious holes up the middle.

What would the price be?
Carlo + Smith + 2023 1st + 2024 3rd?
Reilly + Smith + Lysell + 2023 1st?

Of course, giving up that much requires us locking him up at, say, 8 x $7.5 or so (I suspect we're spoiled with all the hometown discounts, and he'd be looking for more)
 

cshea

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Yeah, I'd be interested in Horvat for all those reasons.

I'm not sure what a trade package looks like. Different position but maybe Lindholm-ish. Both were the same age and pending UFA's. Obviously one's a D the other's a C so that changes the calculus a bit. Additionallly the package changes based on how the Bruins create the salary room. If Vancouver is retaining or taking back an undesireable contract (Smith, Reilly) then that boosts what we have to give them. Or we could try to wheel a 3-way and send Smith and/or Reilly elsewhere. I still think they could get a mid-round pick for Smith at the deadline.

It'll be interesting to see if the Bruins are willing to move their 1st round pick this year. Under Sweeney, they've never gone 2 years in a row without a first round pick. They always alternate. Adding to that, they're already short a 2nd rounder in the next 2 drafts from the Lindholm trade. Are they willing to completely punt the next 1 or 2 drafts for a final push with Bergeron or Krejci? Additionally, how do other teams value our picks? 2023 is supposedly a very deep draft, but that1st rounder probably lands somewhere between 28-32. I think teams may value the 2024 or 2025 1st rounder more due to the uncertainty around the center position and the Pastrnak wild card since he hasn't signed yet.
 

cshea

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The Athletic put their first trade board up for this year.

https://theathletic.com/3995956/2022/12/15/nhl-trade-deadline-board-2022-23/

Horvat leads the way, Chychrun 2nd. In addition to Toews and Kane some other big names high on the list are Ryan O'Reilly and Vlad Tarasenko, both pending UFA's on a Blues team that is headed towards a playoff DNQ. If the Bruins are indeed interested in Toews I would think they would also likely be interested in ROR. He's basically a better version of Toews.
 

j44thor

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The Athletic put their first trade board up for this year.

https://theathletic.com/3995956/2022/12/15/nhl-trade-deadline-board-2022-23/

Horvat leads the way, Chychrun 2nd. In addition to Toews and Kane some other big names high on the list are Ryan O'Reilly and Vlad Tarasenko, both pending UFA's on a Blues team that is headed towards a playoff DNQ. If the Bruins are indeed interested in Toews I would think they would also likely be interested in ROR. He's basically a better version of Toews.
ROR seems like the classic playoff tested vet this FO loves to bring in. I'd sign up for that assuming he has anything left in the tank. He was the primary reason STL beat BOS in 19.
 

Ferm Sheller

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Are we thinking that they'll promote Lysell after today's Providence game?

EDIT: Ah no, he's at the WJC, right?
 

Ferm Sheller

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Probably depends on the injury situation. I think for right now they are just trying to clear some cap room and start accruing cap space.
I'd like to see him get a shot soon. He's averaging a point a game in Providence and he'd be stepping into a very low pressure situation: a veteran team that's accumulated a ton of points.
 

cshea

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I'd like to see him get a shot soon. He's averaging a point a game in Providence and he'd be stepping into a very low pressure situation: a veteran team that's accumulated a ton of points.
He's playing well but I don't think they'll rush it. They are so tight against the cap I don't think they are going to call anyone up unless an injury forces their hand. Even if Smith gets claimed or they bury him in Providence they'll probably want to bank the cap space for the deadline and also to cover Krejci and Bergeron's bonues.
 

Ferm Sheller

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He's playing well but I don't think they'll rush it. They are so tight against the cap I don't think they are going to call anyone up unless an injury forces their hand. Even if Smith gets claimed or they bury him in Providence they'll probably want to bank the cap space for the deadline and also to cover Krejci and Bergeron's bonues.
You could very well be right -- I don't follow the cap situation and its implications as well as I could. It'd be frustrating if lack of cap space delays the promotion/development of their top prospect, but if that's the situation that they're in...
 

cshea

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I don't think Smith's a great fit for Monty's system. Smith has always been a volume shooter and Monty wants quality over quantity. There's a little bit of square peg/round hole goin on. He's also playinv very limited minutes on the 4th line which is a new role. Smith's averaging 7.60 shots per 60 this season which is 2-4 shots lower than his career norm. To be honest I don't think there's a tangible difference between Greer and Smith but Greer makes $762,500 and Smith makes $3.1 million.

It does look like Smith is expected to play tonight if he clears waivers. So he's not gone yet, they'll just gain some flexibility. The roster freeze goes into effect tonight at midnight so they could assign him down after the game if they choose.
 

BostonFanInCanesLand

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Yes, good bet that they assign Smith after tonight’s game to accrue some cap space. Greer can play in the 3 games during the freeze and the B’s can use an emergency call up if someone in the top 12 gets injured.

I’d also think that for now it’ll be a paper transfer and Smith will remain in Boston.

I’m not clear on whether the Bergeron/Krejci bonus overages accrue and are paid off on a daily cap basis or if the Bruins just need to clear as much cap by the trade deadline (to cover as much of the 4.5 million as possible). The Bruin’s appetite to retain some of Smith’s contract to trade him will depend a bit on that calculus.

I agree that the organization has better fits for the 12th/13th F in Montgomery’s system than this current iteration of Smith.

I hope for both Smith and the Bruins that he’s claimed in the next 45 minutes.

I don't think Smith's a great fit for Monty's system. Smith has always been a volume shooter and Monty wants quality over quantity. There's a little bit of square peg/round hole goin on. He's also playinv very limited minutes on the 4th line which is a new role. Smith's averaging 7.60 shots per 60 this season which is 2-4 shots lower than his career norm. To be honest I don't think there's a tangible difference between Greer and Smith but Greer makes $762,500 and Smith makes $3.1 million.

It does look like Smith is expected to play tonight if he clears waivers. So he's not gone yet, they'll just gain some flexibility. The roster freeze goes into effect tonight at midnight so they could assign him down after the game if they choose.
 

cshea

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I believe the bonues get counted at the end of the season. They apply as much as they can to the current season cap and roll the difference over to next season as a hard charge.
 

LogansDad

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Yes, good bet that they assign Smith after tonight’s game to accrue some cap space. Greer can play in the 3 games during the freeze and the B’s can use an emergency call up if someone in the top 12 gets injured.

I’d also think that for now it’ll be a paper transfer and Smith will remain in Boston.

I’m not clear on whether the Bergeron/Krejci bonus overages accrue and are paid off on a daily cap basis or if the Bruins just need to clear as much cap by the trade deadline (to cover as much of the 4.5 million as possible). The Bruin’s appetite to retain some of Smith’s contract to trade him will depend a bit on that calculus.

I agree that the organization has better fits for the 12th/13th F in Montgomery’s system than this current iteration of Smith.

I hope for both Smith and the Bruins that he’s claimed in the next 45 minutes.
He cleared waivers, per Connor Ryan on Twitter.
 

Chainsaw318

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I was down on Zacha the other week, and may have been looking at the player and his role incorrectly there.

I’m trying to think about where it’s best worth adding, and while it’s always a good thing to add a top 4 defenseman, I see that as less of a need/viable add than at wing?

Am I wrong that the question seems to be that there are portions of play where this team could really benefit from one more upgrade at wing, to someone who’s finishing skills are a bit better than Zacha, Smith/Greer (seems to be sharing a game-day spot), Fredric and Foligno?

In turn, is it worth what you would lose in injury depth, PK roles and physicality to love on from one or more of those guys in the lineup?
 

Frisbetarian

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While waiting for the sun to come up here in beautiful San Pancho, I took a look at Ullmark's close and late (3rd period and OT +/- 1 goal or tied) numbers. Scotty Bradley suggested this stat one very drunk late night at a hotel bar, and although we didn't officially adopt it, I was always fascinated by it. It's a 'closer' stat, if you will.

Anyway, of the 35 NHL goaltenders who have played at least 150 minutes in close and late games as described above, Ullmark leads the league with a 1.23 GAA (2nd place is 1.84), a .950 SV% (2nd place is .932), and a stellar 0.82 GA vs expected per 60 minutes (2nd place is 0.69).

I have no idea is this is sustainable (I suspect not), but it is worth pointing out that Ullmark has been unworldly in close and late games this year. Not bad for an overpriced back-up.:)
 
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cshea

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I was down on Zacha the other week, and may have been looking at the player and his role incorrectly there.

I’m trying to think about where it’s best worth adding, and while it’s always a good thing to add a top 4 defenseman, I see that as less of a need/viable add than at wing?

Am I wrong that the question seems to be that there are portions of play where this team could really benefit from one more upgrade at wing, to someone who’s finishing skills are a bit better than Zacha, Smith/Greer (seems to be sharing a game-day spot), Fredric and Foligno?

In turn, is it worth what you would lose in injury depth, PK roles and physicality to love on from one or more of those guys in the lineup?
I don't think the depth scoring is really much of a problem, at least at the moment. The raw goal and point totals might look a pedestrian for the 3rd and 4th line guys but their rates are extremely good. Trent Frederic has 6 goals and 6 assists this year but all his points are at even strenghth. He does not get any power play time and is 9th among forwards in 5x5 time on ice. He's actually 2nd on the team in goals per 60 (behind linemate Charlie Coyle) and 2nd in points per 60 (behind Taylor Hall). Coyle is first in goals per 60 at 5x5, 7th in points per 60. Zacha isn't scoring but is 4th in points per 60 and is 2nd in primary assists per 60 (so he's not just collecting a bunch of secondary assists to pad the points total). Zacha moves around a bunch too and plays up with the top 6 at times and also can cover C. Coyle and Frederic do have high shooting percentages so they will probably regress a bit but it's not crazy, and on the flip side Zacha is probably do for some positive regression.

I think they'll leave no stone unturned but I don't think they "need" anything. There's no glaring weakness. Toews' name has been battered around as a super 3C. If O'Reilly hits the block I bet they'll make that call too with the same though process. Maybe kick tires on Kane. Horvat will probably be really expesnive but would be a super 3C while also potentially being a big piece of the 37 and 46 succession plan (I'd have to dig more into him on this front).

Defensively they usually add a depth 8/9 guy. I think that will depend on what happens with Reilly and Stralman. If they move Reilly and/or Stralman they may look for another Josh Brown type as an emergency depth piece. If they end up keeping Reilly and Stralman sticks around (he hasn't reported to Providence but has been working out at Warrior) then they may feel comfortable with the 9 they have.

Then of course is injuries and if they need any replacements.
 

Lupe Whalewatch

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While waiting for the sun to come up here in beautiful San Pancho, I took a look at Ullmark's close and late (3rd period and OT +/- 1 goal or tied) numbers. Scotty Bradley suggested this stat one very drunk late night at a hotel bar, and although we didn't officially adopt it, I was always fascinated by it. It's a 'closer' stat, if you will.

Anyway, of the 35 NHL goaltenders who have played at least 150 minutes in close and late games as described above, Ullmark leads the league with a 1.23 GAA (2nd place is 1.84), a .950 SV% (2nd place is .932), and a stellar 0.82 GA vs expected per 60 minutes (2nd place is 0.69).

I have no idea is this is sustainable (I suspect not), but it is worth pointing out that Ullmark has been unworldly in close and late games this year. Not bad for an overpriced back-up.:)
Great stat, thanks for sharing. Given their goal differential, I'm a little bit surprised he was able to accumulate 150 third period minutes of close and late!
 

Frisbetarian

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Great stat, thanks for sharing. Given their goal differential, I'm a little bit surprised he was able to accumulate 150 third period minutes of close and late!
Great point. Ullmark is 11th in those close and late minutes at 244; Hart leads the league at 338. Small samples, for sure, but I'd be interested to see how Ullmark's numbers compare historically. I'll try to take a look at some point, but the surfing is so good here it will most likely have to wait until I head south.
 

Red Right Ankle

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Great point. Ullmark is 11th in those close and late minutes at 244; Hart leads the league at 338. Small samples, for sure, but I'd be interested to see how Ullmark's numbers compare historically. I'll try to take a look at some point, but the surfing is so good here it will most likely have to wait until I head south.
Enjoy the surfing! Would be interesting to try to tease out line effects as well. I'm guessing in close and late situations, Bergeron, Marchand and Charlie get more minutes than they would normally. Having possession monsters like those 3 out there has got to help; can't catch up if you can't get the puck!
 

yeahlunchbox

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While waiting for the sun to come up here in beautiful San Pancho, I took a look at Ullmark's close and late (3rd period and OT +/- 1 goal or tied) numbers. Scotty Bradley suggested this stat one very drunk late night at a hotel bar, and although we didn't officially adopt it, I was always fascinated by it. It's a 'closer' stat, if you will.

Anyway, of the 35 NHL goaltenders who have played at least 150 minutes in close and late games as described above, Ullmark leads the league with a 1.23 GAA (2nd place is 1.84), a .950 SV% (2nd place is .932), and a stellar 0.82 GA vs expected per 60 minutes (2nd place is 0.69).

I have no idea is this is sustainable (I suspect not), but it is worth pointing out that Ullmark has been unworldly in close and late games this year. Not bad for an overpriced back-up.:)
That's great info! Like you said, it's probably not sustainable, although it would be interesting to know if there are goalies that tend to be better or worse year after year in that stat.
 

cshea

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Great stat, thanks for sharing. Given their goal differential, I'm a little bit surprised he was able to accumulate 150 third period minutes of close and late!
It's kind of hard to put teams away in 2 periods. As far as I can tell they've only had 5 wins where the game situation never got to a 1-goal lead in the 3rd period.

4-0 CBJ
6-1 CHI
5-1 COL
4-0 COL
7-3 FLA

They have coughed up 3rd period 2 goal leads twice, Arizona in the home opener (then scored 3 late to make it look like a blowout) and the Los Angeles game last week.
 

cshea

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Alsoi in the housekeeping departement they did assign Smith to Providence after last night's game. It's unclear if they will ask him to report and how long he could be down there. This could be a paper move to accrue cap space during the holiday's and they bring him back after the freeze.
 

Chainsaw318

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59352Was looking to see the next game I could try to get to, and didn’t realize the tough run coming up.

I knew they had played a pretty unbalanced schedule with a good number of home games, but from the 27th to Feb 1, they have 18 games, with 12 on the road, including 3 in a row and 5 in a row leading up to the longer Feb break.
 

LogansDad

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I was thinking about posting about the schedule the other day. Pre-Jersey they had played 8 more home games than road games. The only other team over 5 was Columbus.

I do worry about travel wearing them down in the 2nd half of the season.
 

Chainsaw318

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I know they are limited by cap and number of contracts on the roster, but hopefully they can find places to give an extra day or game off to some of the older players.

Only concern I have for the season, other than the obvious one of health, is that some critical parts of the roster are older, and the limited evidence from back-to-back and 3-in-4 runs makes me a little wary of the grind of the playoffs on this crew.

Nice to have that be it, though. Happy holiday!
 

PedroSpecialK

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I know they are limited by cap and number of contracts on the roster, but hopefully they can find places to give an extra day or game off to some of the older players.

Only concern I have for the season, other than the obvious one of health, is that some critical parts of the roster are older, and the limited evidence from back-to-back and 3-in-4 runs makes me a little wary of the grind of the playoffs on this crew.

Nice to have that be it, though. Happy holiday!
Montgomery's been more intentional with load management on B2Bs, hopefully that continues.

Very small sample size of 4 instances so far, but looking at Bergeron's ice time per game on the back-end of a B2B (18:07 ATOI inc these games):

12/23 @ NJD: 14:05
11/13 v VAN: 17:50
10/28 @ CBJ: 14:54
10/18 @ OTT: 16:05
 

Mooch

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I was just perusing the Bruins current goal differential and realized that if they maintain their current pace, they'd have the highest mark (+133) since the 1995-1996 Red Wings.
 

Salem's Lot

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Unless Pasta REALLY likes 8s, it does seem low. I hope I am wrong.

Does Rich Keefe (He’s EEI? Right?) have any history breaking stories?
I don’t believe so. I’m skeptical for two reasons:

A) he’s not exactly a hockey insider
B) He’s reporting specific details. In my experience, the first guy out there with the story isn’t reporting the exact number.

But who knows? Maybe he has a source.
 

Haunted

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I saw it on Instagram and can't figure out how to link it here, but a Bruins fan page I follow said Pasta's agent said there is no truth whatsoever to the "a deal is imminent" is nonsense.
 

Ferm Sheller

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People who spread false rumors on twitter should get a permanent brown check mark next to their name so that we forevermore know that they're full of shit.