maybe there's a theme here?
Begarin, the Celtics 2nd rounder in 2021, looks like a steal...
2021-2022 NBA Game Thread!
- Thread starter ElUno20
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Begarin, the Celtics 2nd rounder in 2021, looks like a steal...
This is going to be a wild year, it's not just advanced stats/ not split. There are a bunch of factions. The Embiid one is mostly "it looks like he's dominant" versus the Jokic camp of "He's putting up the best numbers and he has no help" camp. As an example... Bill Simmons is a Jokic voter (I don't know if he has a vote) and it has nothing to do with advanced stats.
I think this is the reversal year. Recently MVPs have been getting more and more close to unanimous, and honestly advanced stats do well at predicting who it will be. This year is much harder to tell (other than it being a 2 man race). I'd say that the advanced stat group probably favors Jokic, and the "I don't really watch other teams" contingent of local guys, plus the "I don't watch NBA games" group like the TNT crew are heavily Embiid. And then in the middle are the guys who watch a lot of the league, but have amorphous feelings on what the criteria should be. That's where the race will be won.
This is like a SoSH argument, come to life
View: https://twitter.com/TheWilderThings/status/1500960088533700610
View: https://twitter.com/TheWilderThings/status/1500960088533700610
Standard NBA comeback. Hornets down 34 in the 3Q with 8 to go is now down 15 with 3 to go in the 3Q. From 34 down to a 5 possession game in 5-6 min of game time. Welcome to the NBA 2022!
The Hornets have allowed the highest PPG in the East and it's easy to see why. Playing 2 of Plumlee/Harrell/Washington at a time as your 2 biggest guys next to Terry and a 20 year old is tall order for the defense.
Yup, that's crazy....I get Embiid is better (possibly a lot better) on defense but Jokic's offense is so unbeliveable he really has earned the MVP talk. What little there unfortunately is....
If this were Game 82 with Kyrie needing 100 to win the scoring title and Nash/teammates committed to helping I have no doubt he could have gotten there against this defense.Kyrie 50 points on 19 fga.
Advanced stats have been loving Jokic this year, so maybe the defensive difference isn't as much as it used to be.
Kuminga now at 20.2 pts per 36 on .608 TS. No other lotto pick is even close, by volume or efficiency.
The closest by efficiency is ... Moses Moody at .571 TS. (Franz Wagner #3 at .559; all the others are well below league average).
Kuminga 6 reb, 6 ast tonight; Moses 8 reb, 3 ast. One turnover combined.
And ... both just 19. Bob Myers did good in '21.
The closest by efficiency is ... Moses Moody at .571 TS. (Franz Wagner #3 at .559; all the others are well below league average).
Kuminga 6 reb, 6 ast tonight; Moses 8 reb, 3 ast. One turnover combined.
And ... both just 19. Bob Myers did good in '21.
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Nobody cares about his per 36 numbers or his TS%. He's had some nice performances to start his career and has flashed some skills in a suitable role for a struggling team, but we don't need to be comparing him to other rookies who have played way more basketball this year.
I've only watched him a half dozen times but Kuminga looks very legit for a 19yr old. Great body control for his size. Attacks the rim.
Yup everything Kuminga rose this year. His ceiling has always been high based on his physicals but his ability to compete on a winning team as a 19-yr old significantly increased his floor from my seat.
I mean, if I’m projecting a 19 y.o. rookie, I’d much rather he be highly efficient than highly inefficient? And 849 minutes played is a big enough sample where being best by far in your class by scoring volume + scoring efficiency means something. None of the other lotto guys were near Kuminga’s level when they were at 849 minutes played; and you wouldn’t expect Kuminga’s numbers to tank over the next 800 minutes, given that all his numbers (TS%, FT%, 3FG%) have been trending up sharply. And when you’re 19 years old, sharp upward trends are also likely to be significant.
As far as “flashed some skills in a suitable role” — sure, could be said about any rookie. And as HRB notes, Kuminga’s “struggling team” has the third best record in the league.
All these guys are still question marks to a degree, but I think we’ve seen enough of Kuminga to say many of the pre-draft concerns about him have been allayed. This time last year he was an inefficient chucker for G-league Ignite. 20.2 pts per 36 on .608 true shooting four months into his rookie year (with some impressive flashes ot defensive versatility) would have shocked a lot of people, including me.
I like Kuminga a lot, but this is the second time in about a dozen posts that you've mentioned that he's the best in both volume and efficiency. Efficiency maybe, but volume? Among the top 10 picks, he's 10th in minutes played and 9th in points. Among all draftees, he's 21st in minutes and 15th in points. There's no volume to his game yet, he's a young guy playing fewer minutes than any other top 10 pick who has adapted very well to his [very, very small] role on a title contender. No need to oversell it.
Hmm, maybe “scoring rate” is a better term? He’s scoring more points per minute (or per possession) than any of the other lotto guys, by a decent margin. Point was just a give context to the efficiency, which means little on its own. He’s not just a DeAndre Jordan putting up 10-12 pts per 36 on high efficiency cos all he does is catch and dunk. He’s also shooting threes, getting to the line a ton, and creating offense off the bounce.
But yeah, I probably am overselling him a bit. If we lower the total minutes requirement to 300 minutes, the best scorer in the draft by efficiency + scoring rate is actually … Isaiah Jackson, who’s putting up 21.0 points per 36 on .617 TS (in 334 minutes). But Jackson’s also taking 61% of his shots inside 3 feet, where Kuminga is just taking 35% from that range. He’s far from just a dunker (though he is very good at that).
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Make the case to me that Embiid is a stronger MVP candidate than Giannis? The numbers show Giannis has a slight edge.
Giannis: 30-11-6, eFG% of 58.1%, TS% of 63%, PER of 32.6, 11.4 WS, .298 WS/48, BPM of 11.5, VORP of 6.3.
Embiid: 30-11-4, eFG% of 52%, TS% of 61%, PER of 31.6, 9.5 WS, .264 WS/48, BPM of 9.7, VORP of 5.1.
Giannis has played in four more games and roughly 100 more minutes than Embiid, and his team is currently two-games in front of Philadelphia in the standings. Giannis has a slight edge in almost every advanced metric, and is a better passer/creator than Embiid, while also being a more efficient scorer despite Embiid being a better three-point shooter. They have a similar impact defensively, although Giannis is a more versatile defender who can play more positions within a defense. Giannis has a better team around him, although I'm not sure how big the gap really was considering how little their Big 3 of Giannis/Holiday/Middleton have played together this year.
Embiid (-135) is now the odds-on favorite for MVP, and Giannis (+800) is third. That seems solely to me due to narrative; the Embiid is thriving post-Simmons and having the best year of his career, while Giannis' dominance is somewhat routine. However, I think when the more analytical voters sit down to actually investigate the cases of the players, some will realize that Giannis has the better case. (I'd vote for Jokic right now).
Giannis: 30-11-6, eFG% of 58.1%, TS% of 63%, PER of 32.6, 11.4 WS, .298 WS/48, BPM of 11.5, VORP of 6.3.
Embiid: 30-11-4, eFG% of 52%, TS% of 61%, PER of 31.6, 9.5 WS, .264 WS/48, BPM of 9.7, VORP of 5.1.
Giannis has played in four more games and roughly 100 more minutes than Embiid, and his team is currently two-games in front of Philadelphia in the standings. Giannis has a slight edge in almost every advanced metric, and is a better passer/creator than Embiid, while also being a more efficient scorer despite Embiid being a better three-point shooter. They have a similar impact defensively, although Giannis is a more versatile defender who can play more positions within a defense. Giannis has a better team around him, although I'm not sure how big the gap really was considering how little their Big 3 of Giannis/Holiday/Middleton have played together this year.
Embiid (-135) is now the odds-on favorite for MVP, and Giannis (+800) is third. That seems solely to me due to narrative; the Embiid is thriving post-Simmons and having the best year of his career, while Giannis' dominance is somewhat routine. However, I think when the more analytical voters sit down to actually investigate the cases of the players, some will realize that Giannis has the better case. (I'd vote for Jokic right now).
Cade's last 37 games: 32.5 minutes, .428/.368/.839, 18.1 points, 5.4 rebounds, 5.4 assists, 1.2 steals, 0.7 blocks.
View: https://twitter.com/barstoolsports/status/1502072926228598788
I'll say this, Simmons has more balls than Kyrie.
I'll say this, Simmons has more balls than Kyrie.
The bolded would be the case if Simmons had been traded at the beginning of the year, but Embiid keeping the Sixers near the top of the conference with Simmons on the bench is pretty damn impressive. The Bucks' big 3 hasn't been completely healthy, but they've all played 50+ games - Giannis leading the Bucks to basically the exact same record as the Sixers (they are .5 games ahead, not two games), is not as impressive as what Embiid has done.
All that said - I'd still take Giannis over Embiid.
His decade-long All-Star streak begins in February. I love watching this kid play. He methodically rips your heart out without you even realizing it until it’s too late. This is how Harden played when he first entered the league with his “old man’s game.”
Yes this what i didnt get in the trade analysis. The nets are lethal vs this sixers team.
Just checked the Brooklyn/Philly box score. Embiid had 13 free throws... in the first quarter.
Its honestly just such a bad product.
Its honestly just such a bad product.
I mean they were legit fouls. Are they not supposed to call them?
The 1q was actually a good watch. Bk is locked in
Watching this, Doc isn't helping by doing things like playing Harris/Niang and a center, but really... PHI has 1 guy who can defend, and he can't defend KD (who can), even healthy BKN is gonna force switches and hunt guys into oblivion. The 76ers best chance is to get like 70 FTA, and you aren't getting that 4 times in a playoff series.
I thought there was a good case 2 of them should have been charges on Embiid honestly, particularly the one he and KD got into after. He dropped the shoulder into a guy with position to me.
Wasn't kd coming in from the side a bit on that one? I recall it being under the circle as well.
Man these teams do not like each other. Which is awesome to see. I feel like we don’t see that enough in today’s NBA.
It was borderline on the circle I think which I believe is what they called.
Edit- Dragic the crafty vet getting Embiid his 3rd on a charge right before the half.
Including Curry in the trade pretty much sealed their fate. Morey is gonna Morey.
I can confidently say that of the many million, billion or however many viewers there were of that 1H……you are probably one of about 23 whose takeaway was that this was a bad product.
In fairness, he wasn't a "viewer" — he was just looking at the boxscore. ;-P
Without the refs giving Embiid about 25 free throws this game would be even more of a blow out than it already is. It's really hard to say that all of those calls were legit given how little contact there was on half of them (if any contact), but Embiid also has the ball the entire game given how mediocre the rest of the team is around him (other than Harden)... so he is going to draw his share of fouls.
Brooklyn has looked pretty damn impressive tonight.. their D and shooting has been on all game... and they're able to defend Embiid down low.
watching this brooklyn team I wonder what the lowest seed was to ever be favored to make the finals out of their conference at the start of the playoffs.
