Listen you will all love this signing when Bill runs the Flexbone offense for the entire game in week 10 Sunday Night primetime against the Ravens.
2020 Pats: You Cam Go Your Own Way
- Thread starter RedOctober3829
- Start date
I mean, there are three major buckets of outcomes here:
1. Cam's permanently broken or worse than Stidham and gets cut during or just after camp. Positives zero; negatives a prorated amount of the veteran minimum, or zero.
2. Cam plays badly and/or the team is bad. He starts N-1 games before being cut, traded, or benched, with N being the number of starts before his incentives really kick in. Positives: zero. Negatives: Stidham gets N-1 fewer developmental starts this year.
3. Cam is good. Positives: We are good, which is the whole point of the endeavor. Negatives: we don't start The Process for a extra year and risk that CFB will just stop cranking out good QBs despite having cranked out multiple good QBs per season for the past few years.
I think (1) is most likely, making this a nothingburger. But the move still makes sense unless you think that the marginal value of getting Stidham N-1 more starts this year materially screws up his development or the Pats' ability to evaluate him AND that there is basically no chance of (3). And they've evaluated Brady's other backups pretty well based solely on multiple years of practice.
You only get stuck in mediocrity if you eff up multiple QB picks. They might do that, because nearly everyone does that. But if there were ever a franchise that stood for the proposition that you can draft and develop an all-world QB while playing respectable football behind a solid but overpaid vet, it's the Pats.
1. Cam's permanently broken or worse than Stidham and gets cut during or just after camp. Positives zero; negatives a prorated amount of the veteran minimum, or zero.
2. Cam plays badly and/or the team is bad. He starts N-1 games before being cut, traded, or benched, with N being the number of starts before his incentives really kick in. Positives: zero. Negatives: Stidham gets N-1 fewer developmental starts this year.
3. Cam is good. Positives: We are good, which is the whole point of the endeavor. Negatives: we don't start The Process for a extra year and risk that CFB will just stop cranking out good QBs despite having cranked out multiple good QBs per season for the past few years.
I think (1) is most likely, making this a nothingburger. But the move still makes sense unless you think that the marginal value of getting Stidham N-1 more starts this year materially screws up his development or the Pats' ability to evaluate him AND that there is basically no chance of (3). And they've evaluated Brady's other backups pretty well based solely on multiple years of practice.
You only get stuck in mediocrity if you eff up multiple QB picks. They might do that, because nearly everyone does that. But if there were ever a franchise that stood for the proposition that you can draft and develop an all-world QB while playing respectable football behind a solid but overpaid vet, it's the Pats.
Cam for the minimum? Sign me up. LFG! And he’s used to throwing to an underwhelming and/or young group.
Cam also adds a running element to them that they could use. If he’s not healthy and/or he can’t fit in then he’s gone. So stoked they signed him.
If they are going to a SF style offense even ran in EP having a mobile QB like Cam is a real asset.
Cam also adds a running element to them that they could use. If he’s not healthy and/or he can’t fit in then he’s gone. So stoked they signed him.
If they are going to a SF style offense even ran in EP having a mobile QB like Cam is a real asset.
My take:
I think BB is fine with Stidham as the starter going into the season. I think he likes Hoyer as mentor/QB room presence, but realizes that if Hoyer takes the field, they have no chance to be competitive. The issue that makes the deal attractive for the Pats is that there is a tendency for young QBs to get hurt. One of Brady's greatest abilities was that he was in the lineup game after game (with two obvious exceptions). If you look at the suspension year, they ended up needing 3 QBs after Brady because the young kids couldn't stay on the field - Jacoby ended up playing without a thumb I think. BB likely thinks the team can be competitive and isn't willing to run one of the two undrafted QBs onto the field if Stidham gets knocked out for 3-4 games and Hoyer just can't do it on the field.
I think BB is fine with Stidham as the starter going into the season. I think he likes Hoyer as mentor/QB room presence, but realizes that if Hoyer takes the field, they have no chance to be competitive. The issue that makes the deal attractive for the Pats is that there is a tendency for young QBs to get hurt. One of Brady's greatest abilities was that he was in the lineup game after game (with two obvious exceptions). If you look at the suspension year, they ended up needing 3 QBs after Brady because the young kids couldn't stay on the field - Jacoby ended up playing without a thumb I think. BB likely thinks the team can be competitive and isn't willing to run one of the two undrafted QBs onto the field if Stidham gets knocked out for 3-4 games and Hoyer just can't do it on the field.
According to Chris Simms' QB rankings, the Pats just added the 10th best quarterback in the NFL for league minimum salary.
For whatever that's worth.
Not just qb. The Fish rotted from the head down. That's a big difference between the 2 franchises.
Why do you think stidham is "relegated" to anything?
Even if Stidham were the second coming of Nathan Peterman, the Pats are never going to be anywhere near the top 5 picks in the draft so long as they have the HC and the defense they do. Top 10 even. Abhorrence for Lawrence, Bustin' for Justin, and other fun puns for top-ranked college QBs simply are not possible strategies for this team.
The other issue with tanking is that players hit free agency so fast in the NFL that, unless you have no talent on hand whatsoever, or are able to tank for just one and only one year, it can quickly get counterproductive.
If your M.O. is to let most of your top FAs walk - because they will get offers far in excess of their on field value - then an extended tank means losing talent as you are trying to add it, like running on a treadmill. Worth it if you tank for one year and land a cornerstone player, I guess. But if you don't you might be setting your franchise up for an extended period of weakness.
My brother's thoughts on Cam from a physical perspective.
I think health is the only question mark here, but it is a significant one.
I think Cam is here for one year on a make good deal, to rebuild value in himself, as other mid to late career FAs have dome with the Pats. The fact that he opted for this kind of deal, and the Pats offered it to him, suggests to me that healthwise he is OK - or at least that both parties think there's a good shot that he can be OK. I think if he thought was toast he would have sought a multiyear deal with some guaranteed money from a bottom feedimng team with bad management, and I doin't think the Pats would have even bothered with a cheap flier on him if they believed he was done.
Assuming there is a season at all, and that Cam is healthy, I think he starts, plays well, takes the Pats to the playoffs, and cashes in elsewhere in 2021, getting a big deal that he ultimately does not live up to. But he may ring up his best season numbers outside of the MVP year.
I don't think they are sold on Stidham as heir apparent to Brady, and so I don;t think they are overly concerned about harming Stidham's development.
The Pats receivers aren’t underwhelming??
But in seriousness, while I have never liked Cam, and was all aboard the Stidham train, I am intrigued. End of the day sports is entertainment and this has potential to be highly entertaining.
Cams had seasons where his best receiver was Kelvin Benjamin. Building on his short game from 2 seasons ago with James White and Julian Edelman? I think hell be solid.
I know, just pointing out that we’ve all been trashing on the skill position talent all offseason.
Not only that but the Pats offensive line looks to be much better than what he's had in Carolina. The Panthers haven't had a single good OT on either side of that line for the past 5 years or so.
To me this is a big plus with Cam versus, say, Andy Dalton. Cam has helmed offenses that were average or better with suspect receivers. Dalton's play dips a lot if he doesn't have a good supporting cast. I think both of them ended up in situations that make sense.
Three minor Cam points that are easy to miss:
1) He's a goal line weapon. 58 career rushing TDs. That's an area the Pats have struggled the last couple years, and even if they don't call Newton's number much in the red zone, defenses absolutely have to account for his legs.
2) For a running QB, he doesn't take a lot of sacks. His career sack rate is 6.8%, which is maybe just a tick below average. Compare that to say, Russell Wilson, whose career rate is 8.4% and has never had a sack rate lower than 7.0%. Usually running guys take a bunch. He figures to be better in this area than Stidham.
3) His ball security is pretty good. His INT rate is a tick below average for his career, but he really doesn't fumble much for a guy who takes as many hits as he does. Just 55 career fumbles. Eli has 66 in the same time period and he barely takes any hits. Carson Wentz has 48 career fumbles and he's only been in the league four seasons!
In Stidham/Newton vs. Stidham/Hoyer debate, I also consider the playing styles and offensive packages. Stidham and Newton have a much similar physical styles than Stidham/Hoyer, so there is a lot less change in package if they switch QB mid-stream. Also, Newton might have more to contribute in mentoring Stidham.
Not even a game into the post-Brady era and this? It’s been a long 20 years for you, hUnh?
Hopefully Cam can throw the ball. Last year, it looked like he was throwing an anvil. The foot is secondary to the shoulder.
That said, I love this signing. Cam, if healthy, is fantastic. If he's not healthy, it will be pretty obvious. This is an awesome move, for almost nothing.
That said, I love this signing. Cam, if healthy, is fantastic. If he's not healthy, it will be pretty obvious. This is an awesome move, for almost nothing.
Soden is a bum. He should be ignored and considered a troll. He's never been anything but a troll. Maybe 2020 is Miami's year, though.
Most of the quotes from the Panthers in the offseason last year said that his deep ball and shoulder seemed to be in great shape. Bill Barnwell highlighted that he seemed to be airing the ball deep over peoples heads during the season because he was hesitant to land on his foot, but his shoulder seemed fine. I don't remember a single snap of Newtons, so just relaying what Barnwell wrote.
Im just quoting you because you're the last person to discuss it.
With the full knowledge that teams haven't been able to give Cam a physical, IF Cam is healthy, he will be the starting QB for the Patriots this coming season. Full stop.
Both his ceiling and floor are significantly higher than Stidhams. He's proven he can run an NFL offense with: a shitty offensive line, no skill players, and poor offensive ideology. All at the same time. If his injuries are not a concern - and again, I seem to be more confident in that than the rest of the board (also IANAD, so WTF do I know) - this puts the team somewhere between borderline playoff contender to serious SB contender. I feel like the Patriots have been burned so frequently as of late with signings like this, that alot of fans are choosing to view this glass as half empty. Im more optimistic.
I was anxious for the Stidham era for the same reason as everyone else. It would be good to know what the future held at the QB position. But the only thing we Patriots fans were hanging onto as a barometer of Stidhams success was the vote of confidence that BB was giving him as the starter. We can pretend this signing doesnt change that, but it does. Because if Cam is healthy, he will be tabbed as the starter for this team. Its why Cam signed here, and its why BB signed him.
And the upside he provides makes it so worth it.
SB or bust, baby!
From what I can recall, people were saying in training camp the zip on his throws was back and he was pushing the ball down field. Then he had the foot injury and clearly wasn’t fully planting his foot and was sailing all of his throws.
He should be almost two years removed from the shoulder injury and had almost a full season off last year. It’s as good as its ever going to be. I suppose I would be a little more nervous that the foot injury takes away some of his running ability.
Fast forward to mid-season when Belichick trades his backup QB, a semi-healthy Newton, to a contender who's just lost their starting QB for the season, for a conditional 2nd rounder, hearken back to this run on sentence for an I told you so.
Or he plays well and they keep him all season and they get a compensatory third round pick (to make up for the loss of their actual third).
I get the point that's being made here about opportunity cost as it relates to Stidham. But for most franchises, what the future holds at the QB position is... mediocre QB play. Whatever a team can do to hedge on that purgatory is worth doing, if it's affordable. There seems to be a heighted expectation in this thread that starting Stidham this year would yield a tidy binary outcome, where either he's great and the QB position is solved for the next decade, or he's terrible and the team cuts bait and drafts someone new. What's much more likely is that he flashes some skills, shows some weaknesses... and then we spend the next several seasons watching him address some of those weaknesses but fail to address others and basically evolve into another adequate-but-not-great QB. It's not a knock on Stidham, it's just what generally happens.
It's so hard to find elite QB play that anything you can do to possibly steal a year of it— at a discount, no less— is worth a shot, IMO.
And the part that is getting lost is that Bill pulled this off with $680,000 in cap space and without making any other moves. If Cam is great it sounds like it will cost up to $7.5 million in cap space but deferred to next year because it is NLTBE. We have the room next year. This was an incredible coup. People are in denial about the Patriots’ cap situation.
Yeah some examples that come to mind are actually first round picks - guys like Tannehill, Mariota, and Winston. Guys that were all taken in the top 10, and yet they all got through their first contracts without anyone really knowing if they were good or not. Hell I STILL don't know if Tannehill is good!
Wildly optimistic take, but the cap situation for '21 and beyond is such that if this works out (health + skill + likes it here) there's really no reason an extension is completely out of the question. Certainly not the most likely scenario, but is that really any less likely than coming out of this year convinced you have the guy in Stidham? No matter how you slice it, the team's chances of good QB play for this year have increased significantly with this move, and I'd argue it gives a similar bump to the chances of good QB play for the next few years.
If Cam has a great year, he'll be looking for $30M+ annually on the open market. I guess I could see the Pats giving him a decent deal, but the more likely scenario is he signs somewhere else.
This is exactly it. If Stidham went 9-7 and showed promise, it doesnt really mean anything for 3 years down the line.
Josh Allen
Sam Darnold
Baker Mayfield
Ryan Tannehill
Jacoby Brisett
Derek Carr
Marcus Marriota
Daniel Jones
Carson Wentz
Nick Foles
Mitch Trubisky
Kirk Cousins
Teddy Bridgewater
Jarred Goff
Jameis Winston
I mean, the list goes on and on. At one point in time, each one of these guys were considered potentially the longterm future at QB for a franchise. Some might still be. But even if Stidham performs above average this season, theres nothing to say that he is still the answer at QB in 2 or 3 years. Most teams don't get a Tom Brady or Drew Brees for 15 years.
Franchise tag is an option, with the Pats projected to have a ton of 2021 space. Franchise-and-trade not out of the question, either.
I was watching the 28-3 game and following along with the SoSH game thread. He popped in a few times to say things like “Maybe Next Year.” It was divine.
Of course the Dolphins haven’t even had a “maybe next year” since 1998.
The apy for a third round comp pick this year ended up being around $15m and will probably not be higher next year. So if the Patriots keep him for the year they should if nothing else get a decent comp pick.
No. It will be for a 3rd round near the beginning of the round and Goodell will rule that THIS is the draft choice that the Pats lose for StupidFilmGate
I just don’t see how anyone could be especially bothered by this. There seems to be no major downside and the Patriots have shown a remarkable ability to change their offensive approach to adjust to both the strengths of their personnel and league wide patterns. I think the sky is the limit on the upside and I look forward to BB and McDaniels maybe reinventing their approach to the offense in ways that surprise the league (and this board). And if he gets cut, well, easy come easy go. This is totally a “in Bill we trust move.”
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Even if they did think Stidham is clearly their franchise QB going forward, is there any actual evidence that him serving as a backup for one more year would harm his development (not saying EJ is suggesting this)? In the absolute best-case scenario, Cam returns to something approximating his former glory and Stidham gets to learn from another former MVP QB (one that, as others have pointed out, is probably closer to Stidham's style than Brady was) before taking the reigns next year. Sure, that would mean his in-game experience would be relatively limited, but another year of NFL seasoning even on the practice field/in the locker room before being the team leader is not nothing.
And as many others have already pointed out there is virtually no downside here and even the worst-case scenario is beneficial to the Pats: Stidham gets to get a few pointers from a former MVP during training camp, Cam is sent on his way before the regular season begins, and the Patriots get some marginal PR benefits from the signing (just taking a quick glance around Twitter makes obvious, if it wasn't already, that Newton is hugely respected by other NFL players and that it's perceived that the Pats did him a solid by signing him).
Look...if nothing else he gets our defense prepared for running mobile quarterbacks like Jackson, Tua and Mahomes. I have a feeling this is going to work out great. I think he will beat out Stidham in the preseason but I think Stidham will get plenty of snaps during the regular season.
They signed a 32 year old former MVP QB who can potentially be a gigantic mobile play-maker when protection breaks down with an absolute artillery piece for an arm. They did with with only 6 figures worth of cap space. The very worst case scenario is an Albert Haynesworth type exit.
Just seeing this in print makes me want to vomit. I can't imagine the sports induced trauma this causes Bears fans.
QFT, with extreme prejudice.
Just seeing this in print makes me want to vomit. I can't imagine the sports induced trauma this causes Bears fans.
Mahomes with the 10th pick of the draft is going to go down as one of the greatest draft picks in NFL history.
Yup. And coming at it from the other angle, while those Panthers teams had a good coaching staff, who isn't at least a little bit fascinated by what Cam will look like under BB and JM?
Especially for how much they are paying him. If he stinks or is a problem in the locker room, Bill will cut him and roll with Stidham and we're back to where we were a week ago, hoping and praying the kid has what it takes. As OFC said above, one more year on the bench isn't the end of the world for Stidham.
This is such a BB move. Potentially above average veteran for low money. If he comes back strong, the team has options to recoup even more value from him. I'm excited to see what kind of offense McD rolls out for him.