2020 Pats: QB Edition

heavyde050

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There is no such thing as a "healthy" season in the NFL if you define it that way. If you can play in most of the games it's a healthy season. I mean the "healthy" Newton season above was 14 games (he was shut down for the last 2) and he was on the injury report with a shoulder injury from October onward.
I realize that. I meant that Brady apparently had tennis elbow in 2019 and it was limiting him (at least during practice) more so than during a regular NFL season. I could be wrong on that though.
 

Cellar-Door

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I realize that. I meant that Brady apparently had tennis elbow in 2019 and it was limiting him (at least during practice) more so than during a regular NFL season. I could be wrong on that though.
I get that, but it's generally the case. I doubt Brady's elbow last year was any worse than Newton's shoulder in 2018 where he was hurt all year then had surgery after game 15.
 

JohnnyK

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Not a big Cam guy here, but let's compare these two QB's last healthy seasons....

Newton (2018): 67.9%, 7.2 y/a, 24 td, 13 int, 94.2 rating, add in 488 yds rushing and 4 td
Brady (2019): 60.8%, 6.6 y/a, 24 td, 8 int, 88.0 rating, and obviously gives you nothing in the run game
the season you listed was the only one of Cam's career with a completion percentage above 60% apart from 2013; that was an absolutely atypical season for him, and I would not base my expectations on that.
 

DourDoerr

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I had mentioned the uptick in Cam's comp % in an earlier post. It is a big increase over his previous career high, but it may be due to the addition of McCaffrey and his receiving skillset. Since the Pats use backs like White with a similar skillset, it might translate to similar production going forward - particularly with McD's guidance. I've never been a big fan of Cam due to the low %'s he's had, but this potential development is at least giving me pause.
 

BaseballJones

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I don't think there's any denying that Cam has talent. Call it a freak season, but clearly his upside is elite. I wouldn't expect anywhere near his upside if he were to join the Patriots, but it is reasonable to think that he could be at least *good*. Put a good QB with the defense and offensive line that they have and that's a pretty good team.

Nonetheless, I expect (and want) it to be Stidham.
 

DourDoerr

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I don't think there's any denying that Cam has talent. Call it a freak season, but clearly his upside is elite. I wouldn't expect anywhere near his upside if he were to join the Patriots, but it is reasonable to think that he could be at least *good*. Put a good QB with the defense and offensive line that they have and that's a pretty good team.

Nonetheless, I expect (and want) it to be Stidham.
I'm still a bit wary of calling the OL anything but suspect at this point (Thuney's status, Andrews', Cannon's and Mason's health) although of course they have the potential to be good if all are healthy. While it may appear to be a freak season, there's also the chance that it's a new baseline for Newton as the shift in comp % may be the result of a QB given a different set of tools and the realization that he can save himself a substantial amount of wear and tear by holding onto the ball less (I'm going by the assumption that the time it takes for a short yardage play to develop is less than the longer game).

Newton might be maturing and, if so, he could fit nicely for an affordable 1-year stay with the Pats to reset his value - and for Stidham to develop. If it's a success, then you have the new and better cap #'s next year to extend a bigger deal and slot Stidham into the Jimmy G. role, and you can perhaps then get some value for Newton in a trade down the road to open up the spot for Stidham.
 

DourDoerr

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Good question. I don't know, it's probably coincidental, but the Pats are clearing cap space and now Cam wouldn't cost draft picks. $5 million? Depends on how Cam feels about playing for the GOAT coach and how much money he wants the Pats to have to sign more talent. He might be content taking less as Brady set a precedent in NE. Cam's already made a lot of money and a good season could fetch another big payday. Can he maximize his chances with BB and McD? I'd guess he's at least intriguiged.
 

DJnVa

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Cam on a 1 year make good deal then puts the 2021 Pats, with better cap space situation, back to going with untested QB? I don't see it.
 

Super Nomario

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I'm still a bit wary of calling the OL anything but suspect at this point (Thuney's status, Andrews', Cannon's and Mason's health) although of course they have the potential to be good if all are healthy.
You compare it to OLs around the NFL and it's a quality unit. And depth should be much improved this year.

While it may appear to be a freak season, there's also the chance that it's a new baseline for Newton as the shift in comp % may be the result of a QB given a different set of tools and the realization that he can save himself a substantial amount of wear and tear by holding onto the ball less (I'm going by the assumption that the time it takes for a short yardage play to develop is less than the longer game).
Carolina also switched OCs that year. I know people make fun of Norv for his lack of head coaching success, but the dude can OC.
 

tims4wins

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I know we are all desperate for sports stuff to talk about but I would put the chances of a Cam signing at way under 1%. Doesn't seem worth discussion IMO
 

Seels

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I really, really don't see a Cam fit. I think Stidham has decent odds of being better, and I'm not really high on Stidham
 

BigSoxFan

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I know we are all desperate for sports stuff to talk about but I would put the chances of a Cam signing at way under 1%. Doesn't seem worth discussion IMO
It is absolutely worth discussion until Cam signs somewhere or the Pats get a proven starting calibre QB. With that said, it’s pretty likely that we go into 2020 season with Stidham/Hoyer but neither is an attractive enough option not to keep looking for an upgrade.
 

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I am probably delusional: I was wondering late last night why TB12 would do make the jump to the Bucs. It seems so out of character and it's an enormous risk. A 43 yo, immobile QB learning a new system with a franchise that has OL problems, no pass catching RBs and (admittedly excellent) receivers who run vertical, big routes. Doesn't seem to play to his skill set. This led me to wonder....Is JS4 the better QB right now? Would he have beaten out TB12 in TC. If both he and BB knew it, TB12 was subject to the same fate as his predecessor Drew Bledsoe. Seems unlikely but I couldn't sleep last night and this thought popped into my head.

Maybe JS4>TB12, at least right now.
Crazy? Probably.
 

Bowhemian

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I am probably delusional: I was wondering late last night why TB12 would do make the jump to the Bucs. It seems so out of character and it's an enormous risk. A 43 yo, immobile QB learning a new system with a franchise that has OL problems, no pass catching RBs and (admittedly excellent) receivers who run vertical, big routes. Doesn't seem to play to his skill set. This led me to wonder....Is JS4 the better QB right now? Would he have beaten out TB12 in TC. If both he and BB knew it, TB12 was subject to the same fate as his predecessor Drew Bledsoe. Seems unlikely but I couldn't sleep last night and this thought popped into my head.

Maybe JS4>TB12, at least right now.
Crazy? Probably.
You should probably get some sleep.
J/K-mostly
 

DourDoerr

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There was a
I know we are all desperate for sports stuff to talk about but I would put the chances of a Cam signing at way under 1%. Doesn't seem worth discussion IMO
There was a time in Blount's Port Cellar when the idea of the Celts acquiring Kyrie Irving was considered unthinkable. Forgetting how we feel about the trade now, it did happen despite the consensus there.

I don't think there's a great chance of Cam coming to the Pats either, but I do think it's worth discussing why it might be a fit - and might not. Cam's exhibited an uptick in performance in an area that BB presumably values. We don't know what the Pats really think of Stidham or where they think his development is right now. They carried Jimmy G. for years, so I don't think it's outrageous - with the zero cost of acquisition beyond cap space and Cam's circumstances - to conclude that they might value another year of development for Stidham.

And yes, I know they carried Jimmy G. for years because they had the GOAT at qb already, but I think it's also evidence that they believed the bench didn't substantially stunt his growth and might have enabled it.

Edit: Just saw BSF's post. +1
 

DourDoerr

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Cam on a 1 year make good deal then puts the 2021 Pats, with better cap space situation, back to going with untested QB? I don't see it.
Would you know more about someone after 1 year or 2 years? I know I'd feel more comfortable with my evaluation if I'm allowed more time to make it.
 

tims4wins

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Ok, discuss away I guess.

This was in Curran's latest

"I do remember getting strong, “That’s not gonna happen,” signals from Foxboro when I asked about non-Brady plans. The Patriots, I was told, wouldn’t be pursuing a mid-tier veteran quarterback — Dalton, Marcus Mariota, Nick Foles, Teddy Bridgewater — you name it. "
 

DJnVa

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Would you know more about someone after 1 year or 2 years? I know I'd feel more comfortable with my evaluation if I'm allowed more time to make it.
If we bring in Cam and he plays well and signs somewhere else for big money, then we roll into 2021 still unsure about what Stidham can do in actual games. Of course I understand that would give BB 2 years of watching him, but it would still all be offseason and preseason stuff. And that will be heading into a season where the Patriots should be in better cap shape, etc.
 

DJnVa

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Ok, discuss away I guess.

This was in Curran's latest

"I do remember getting strong, “That’s not gonna happen,” signals from Foxboro when I asked about non-Brady plans. The Patriots, I was told, wouldn’t be pursuing a mid-tier veteran quarterback — Dalton, Marcus Mariota, Nick Foles, Teddy Bridgewater — you name it. "
There's one conspicuously missing in that list...
 

Cellar-Door

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I assume Cam ends up in LA, they can afford to pay him well, have good talent, and his only competition is Tyrod Taylor a career backup who is the same age as Cam. I do think there is a small chance he and the Patriots have mutual interest (certainly more than the 2 stories about the Patriots trading for DeShaun Watson that CBS pushed to my phone today).
 

DourDoerr

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If we bring in Cam and he plays well and signs somewhere else for big money, then we roll into 2021 still unsure about what Stidham can do in actual games. Of course I understand that would give BB 2 years of watching him, but it would still all be offseason and preseason stuff. And that will be heading into a season where the Patriots should be in better cap shape, etc.
Well, they pretty much saw only off-season and pre-season stuff from Jimmy G. He had multiple years of limited action until the suspension. The bonus of throwing Cam out there is that you get to evaluate Cam in your system so you could actually extend him precisely when you'll have the cap space to do so. If you throw Stidham out there and he's terrible, then you're going into an off-season with cap space still, but without a QB AND not knowing how Newton might perform in the system (assuming he's available then).
I assume Cam ends up in LA, they can afford to pay him well, have good talent, and his only competition is Tyrod Taylor a career backup who is the same age as Cam.
I agree that this makes the most sense given the reasons you've stated. And he's a big star and LA demands stars.
 

DJnVa

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Colin Cowherd reported TODAY that the Patriots will not pursue Teddy Bridgewater.

GJGE Colin.
 

snowmanny

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On NFL Radio they theorized the three options for Cam were Jags, Pats, Chargers.

To me the Pats seem like a long-shot unless just wants a one-year lower-salary Beltre-type prove-it deal and thinks this is the best place to succeed.
 

Captaincoop

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I have no idea what Cam Newton has left, or if he would be a good fit for what Belichick and Josh want to do. But the idea that he might play great and then leave the Pats in the same position going into 2021 doesn't fly. If nothing else, that would buy another year to groom Stidham or to identify another longterm plan if they don't think Stidham is the guy.
 

Shaky Walton

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I've had a few drinks so will keep this short out of fear that I might step in shit.

I would rather see what they have in Stidham than go with Newton. Stidham has gotten high praise from some Pats players and there's at least the chance that he is the real deal. Cam Newton is an extremely talented player who has never quite put it all together. And who seems already to be on the downside. I have a hard time believing he will somehow become a great QB under Belichick. I have to admit, however,that the thought is enticing, especially if he can be had at short money. But in the end I hope that they give Stidham every shot to be successful. and stay away from Cam Newton.

So I hope that is cogent. I'm not totally sure.
 

tims4wins

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I've had a few drinks so will keep this short out of fear that I might step in shit.

I would rather see what they have in Stidham than go with Newton. Stidham has gotten high praise from some Pats players and there's at least the chance that he is the real deal. Cam Newton is an extremely talented player who has never quite put it all together. And who seems already to be on the downside. I have a hard time believing he will somehow become a great QB under Belichick. I have to admit, however,that the thought is enticing, especially if he can be had at short money. But in the end I hope that they give Stidham every shot to be successful. and stay away from Cam Newton.

So I hope that is cogent. I'm not totally sure.
I’m stone cold sober and agree all around
 

Euclis20

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I've had a few drinks so will keep this short out of fear that I might step in shit.

I would rather see what they have in Stidham than go with Newton. Stidham has gotten high praise from some Pats players and there's at least the chance that he is the real deal. Cam Newton is an extremely talented player who has never quite put it all together. And who seems already to be on the downside. I have a hard time believing he will somehow become a great QB under Belichick. I have to admit, however,that the thought is enticing, especially if he can be had at short money. But in the end I hope that they give Stidham every shot to be successful. and stay away from Cam Newton.

So I hope that is cogent. I'm not totally sure.
I agree with most of this, but the bolded just can't be true. In his MVP year he had a 35/10 TD/int ratio and a 99.4 QB rating, along with 10 rushing TDs and 635 rushing yards. His AV in 2015 was 20, a number Brady has beaten just twice (24 in 2007 and 21 in 2011). He did it all with a pretty crappy set of offensive skill players (Greg Olsen, Ted Ginn and Jericho Cotchery had the most catches and the RBs were Jonathan Stewart and Mike Tolbert). He did put it all together (and made it to the Super Bowl), but he couldn't sustain it. No surprise given the way he plays. When he puts it together he's perhaps the most physical rushing QB of all time. Sadly his injury and aging curve just doesn't make him look like a good fit here, and that's before you get to play style.

*edit - seriously, how many MVPs have played with a supporting cast that mediocre (at least in terms of skill players)? That's a really good fullback and a decent TE, an average RB and a couple of below average WRs. Really weak.
 
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E5 Yaz

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Colin Cowherd reported TODAY that the Patriots will not pursue Teddy Bridgewater.

GJGE Colin.
I heard that while driving to work today ... first time I'd laugh that loud in a week
 

HomeRunBaker

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I don't want a one-year stop gap veteran unless the rest of the roster makes us a real contender (although I feel Dalton would be a tremendous fit for more than one-year as he's only 32). Either make a blockbuster deal for Watson or roll with Stidham. I liked him a lot at Auburn and he has the arm strength. I wouldn't mind seeing how he develops throughout this year as we add some picks to move forward in '21 either with Stidham or go in a different direction if the growth isn't there.
 

tims4wins

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I don’t get the Watson rumblings. Saw somewhere the Pats had the best odds to land him as starter in 2021. Where is that coming from??
 

DJnVa

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I don’t get the Watson rumblings. Saw somewhere the Pats had the best odds to land him as starter in 2021. Where is that coming from??
That he won't resign in Houston and the Pats will need a QB.
 

E5 Yaz

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I did some checking back into the original post in this thread that brought up those odds. ... it came from a Facebook post by He Who Should Not Be Named
 

Awesome Fossum

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I know people make fun of Norv for his lack of head coaching success, but the dude can OC.
Just because I was curious and looked it up:

Code:
YEAR TEA PO  PTS  YDS  YPP
2019 CAR OC 20th 19th 25th
2018 CAR OC 15th 10th  9th
2016 MIN OC 23rd 28th 29th
2015 MIN OC 16th 29th 25th
2014 MIN OC 20th 27th 27th
2013 CLE OC 27th 18th 24th
2012 SDC HC 20th 31st 30th
2011 SDC HC  6th  6th  7th
2010 SDC HC  2nd  1st  1st
2009 SDC HC  4th 10th  7th
2008 SDC HC  2nd 11th  5th
2007 SDC HC  5th 20th 20th
2006 SFO OC 24th 26th 12th
2005 OAK HC 23rd 21st 19th
2004 OAK HC 18th 17th 11th
2003 MIA OC 17th 24th 21st
2002 MIA OC 12th 15th 15th
2001 SDC OC 14th 11th 13th
2000 WAS HC 24th 11th 10th
1999 WAS HC  2nd  2nd  2nd
1998 WAS HC 17th 15th 15th
1997 WAS HC 15th 16th 17th
1996 WAS HC  8th  9th  3rd
1995 WAS HC 18th 18th 16th
1994 WAS HC 13th 17th 18th
1993 DAL OC  2nd  4th  3rd
1992 DAL OC  2nd  4th  3rd
1991 DAL OC  7th  9th  7th
 

Shaky Walton

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I agree with most of this, but the bolded just can't be true. In his MVP year he had a 35/10 TD/int ratio and a 99.4 QB rating, along with 10 rushing TDs and 635 rushing yards. His AV in 2015 was 20, a number Brady has beaten just twice (24 in 2007 and 21 in 2011). He did it all with a pretty crappy set of offensive skill players (Greg Olsen, Ted Ginn and Jericho Cotchery had the most catches and the RBs were Jonathan Stewart and Mike Tolbert). He did put it all together (and made it to the Super Bowl), but he couldn't sustain it. No surprise given the way he plays. When he puts it together he's perhaps the most physical rushing QB of all time. Sadly his injury and aging curve just doesn't make him look like a good fit here, and that's before you get to play style.

*edit - seriously, how many MVPs have played with a supporting cast that mediocre (at least in terms of skill players)? That's a really good fullback and a decent TE, an average RB and a couple of below average WRs. Really weak.
You're making a very good point. I guess what I really meant was that he never took the leap from that to being a winning QB. He also did not sustain it. But yeah, he was great for that year, no doubt.
.
 

BaseballJones

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You're making a very good point. I guess what I really meant was that he never took the leap from that to being a winning QB. He also did not sustain it. But yeah, he was great for that year, no doubt.
.
Newton is 68-55-1 in his career (.553).

Hall of Famer Dan Fouts was 86-84 (.506).

He's been a winning QB. Not consistently but he's been a winner for sure. He hasn't lived up to his vast potential, when you look at his overall career though.
 

Shaky Walton

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Newton is 68-55-1 in his career (.553).

Hall of Famer Dan Fouts was 86-84 (.506).

He's been a winning QB. Not consistently but he's been a winner for sure. He hasn't lived up to his vast potential, when you look at his overall career though.
When I say winning, I mean more than technically winning. Or winning at that particular level.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Newton is 68-55-1 in his career (.553).

Hall of Famer Dan Fouts was 86-84 (.506).

He's been a winning QB. Not consistently but he's been a winner for sure. He hasn't lived up to his vast potential, when you look at his overall career though.
Newton was one of the better in the league for awhile there. The issue is how much have his injuries reduced his ability to use his legs which had always been a lethal tool in his game especially on 3rd down. Without that tool moving forward he is ordinary at best.
 

BaseballJones

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When I say winning, I mean more than technically winning. Or winning at that particular level.
Meaning, he hasn't won the Super Bowl? Well, lots of great QBs never won a Super Bowl. Newton took his team to the playoffs 3 out of 8 seasons (not counting last year when he only played two games). That's 37.5% of his seasons. In Fouts' 12 seasons when he played 9 or more games, he led his team to the playoffs 4 times (33.3%). Tarkenton, in 18 such seasons, went to the playoffs 5 times (27.8%).

Look, I apologize - I'm not really trying to make the case for Newton being an all-time great, or even a guy I want at the helm for the Patriots. But compared to some other great QBs in league history, he's been a pretty decent winner, he's gone to the playoffs, the Super Bowl, and won an MVP.

He's actually had a pretty good career.
 

5dice

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The national negativity about Cam is prevalent, some his own creation, some subtle racism, some nonsensical. I couldn’t imagine having a Patriots quarterback obsessed with fashion.
 
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The national negativity about Cam is prevalent, some his own creation, some subtle racism, some nonsensical. I couldn’t imagine having a Patriots quarterback obsessed with fashion.
well played.

The not diving in the ground for a fumble in a super bowl is a tough moment, but if the salary cap wasn‘t such a big issue, I’d definitely be curious about bringing him in. Cam has a lot of physical talent.