2020 Pats: QB Edition

tims4wins

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If Hoyer is truly the backup plan then they are punting the season. He’s gotta be here strictly for leadership and to help JS transition in the QB room...Hoyer is not an NFL quarterback.
Wait what? He is literally a backup QB. If you said if Hoyer is the plan to start then I’d agree. But Hoyer was backup in 2018. Was the intent to punt the season? I don’t get it.
 

RedOctober3829

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By itself it doesn't but unless they sign Cam or someone soon, then Stidham, Hoyerm and Kessler are the 3 in camp unless some crazy draft day trade happens.
I don't even think it will take a crazy draft day trade. They are going to draft a QB at some point this draft whether it is at 23 or in the 3rd round. Someone like Jake Fromm, Stephen Montez, or Anthony Gordon are all possibilities in the mid-rounds.
 

JokersWildJIMED

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Wait what? He is literally a backup QB. If you said if Hoyer is the plan to start then I’d agree. But Hoyer was backup in 2018. Was the intent to punt the season? I don’t get it.
The report I read was that Hoyer could compete for the job.
 

Super Nomario

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Yeah. Isn't this really the story: Hoyer is sort of the perfect guy to have on the team if Stridman gets hurt or completely shits the bed (or really, if he is good too). I think this is Stridman's team.
I think it's more the parenthetical. There's not much to suggest Hoyer can actually play at more than a replacement level if called on, and he turns 35 in October. But he's a nice voice to have in the QB room to help out the youngster.
 

DJnVa

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I don't even think it will take a crazy draft day trade. They are going to draft a QB at some point this draft whether it is at 23 or in the 3rd round. Someone like Jake Fromm, Stephen Montez, or Anthony Gordon are all possibilities in the mid-rounds.
Yes. And, once again, I am saying that I (me, myself, no one else) think that if they draft a mid-round guy then I don't think that mid-round guy will be starting. I think the plan is to have Stidham win the job at this point UNLESS they somehow find out a way to move up, which I don't think they are planning on.

That's what this conversation branch is about---that it *appears* the plan, as of now, is to start Stidham, assuming he wins that job. I think BB wants him to. I was simply talking about the likelihood of them drafting a guy next month that starts week 1.
 

Cellar-Door

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If Hoyer is truly the backup plan then they are punting the season. He’s gotta be here strictly for leadership and to help JS transition in the QB room...Hoyer is not an NFL quarterback.
I mean, he's an NFL backup. He hasn't seen the field much recently, but as an example, his last 4 years are basically the same as Brissett's on rate stats. There aren't a lot of teams who have starting quality backups, they either have unproven young guys, or Hoyer types. Were the Patriots punting in 2018 when they won the Super Bowl with Hoyer as the backup? If your starting QB gets hurt in this league your season is likely over, that's just how it works.
 

GoDa

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If Hoyer starts, it's essentially a tank season. Even though it might be the best thing for the team, I can't imagine BB tanking.
 

snowmanny

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If Hoyer starts, it's essentially a tank season. Even though it might be the best thing for the team, I can't imagine BB tanking.
If the Patriots tanked people outside of New England would be really upset and demand something be done. Me, I could probably find some other team to root for for a year....
 

5dice

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In what world would BB start Hoyer over Stidham? Why would they re-sign Slater, Thuney, DMac, etc... to have Stidham sitting and "tanking" with Hoyer out there.
Isn't the simplest explanation that it is Stidham there to try to keep going with what they have, hope for better o-line health and skill position production and Hoyer is another system and team-aware mentor for the young QB?
 

NoXInNixon

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Yeah, but Belichick won't.
How do you know that? No one has more job security than BB. He is in no danger of being fired for a 2-14 season. He's never been in a position before where tanking might have made sense. He could very well conclude that the best long-term plan is to get Lawrence.

Also, given his reputation as an unconventional thinker, he could very easily coach in such a way that his decisions cause the Patriots to lose games they might have won while still being defensible, so that he gets the benefit of losing games without the stench of losing on purpose.

Now, I don't think it's likely, but I wouldn't rule it out entirely. A lot depends on how good BB thinks Lawrence is. If he's another Elway or Manning, tanking would absolutely be the right thing to do.
 

djbayko

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I don’t think anyone is saying that BB has a fear of job security. It’s just that we’re talking about an old school coach who refused to take Brady out in the 4th quarter of blowouts. "60 minutes" is core to his coaching philosophy. He won’t invite a culture of losing.
 
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Bowser

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For the Pats to tank, BB would have to believe, on some level, he needs Trevor Lawrence to be successful. This would be an admission he needed Brady. I don't imagine BB thinks this way.
 

RSFnFL

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How do you know that? No one has more job security than BB. He is in no danger of being fired for a 2-14 season. He's never been in a position before where tanking might have made sense. He could very well conclude that the best long-term plan is to get Lawrence.

Also, given his reputation as an unconventional thinker, he could very easily coach in such a way that his decisions cause the Patriots to lose games they might have won while still being defensible, so that he gets the benefit of losing games without the stench of losing on purpose.

Now, I don't think it's likely, but I wouldn't rule it out entirely. A lot depends on how good BB thinks Lawrence is. If he's another Elway or Manning, tanking would absolutely be the right thing to do.
I believe it was BB who, after Peyton Manning got a season ending injury and the Colts went 2-14 (or something), that it was short sited of them to not have a backup plan at QB. I think it was in response to the number of backup QBs the Pats were keeping on the roster. His overall comment was, we aren't going to go 2-14 because our star QB goes down. At the time is was a pretty out of character comment from BB in terms of talking about other teams.
 

Cellar-Door

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I don't see how this team truly tanks anyway, the defense is far too good. They would still win at least 5 games with Hoyer, who isn't good, but also isn't Nathan Peterman.
 

E5 Yaz

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I can't believe that people are dissing Stidham without actually seeing him beyond a small sample size. It's not like he was some scrub fourth-string quarterback drafted in the sixth round.
 

DJnVa

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In what world would BB start Hoyer over Stidham?
In a world where Stidham is deemed not quite ready for Week 1. But I think, if he's healthy and doesn't bomb the preseason, it's Stidham.
 

NoXInNixon

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Imagine this scenario: The Pats start out with a really tough schedule. Say the first four games are

@KC
Baltimore
@buffalo
@Houston

And they go 0-4 right out of the gate. And they find themselves 1-7 or 2-6 at midseason. It would absolutely have to cross his mind that he's not making the playoffs and a generational QB is available at #1, so the correct strategic move is to lose games, and there's no doubt in my mind that BB is smart enough to lose games without making it obvious that he's trying to lose games.
 

NoXInNixon

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I believe it was BB who, after Peyton Manning got a season ending injury and the Colts went 2-14 (or something), that it was short sited of them to not have a backup plan at QB. I think it was in response to the number of backup QBs the Pats were keeping on the roster. His overall comment was, we aren't going to go 2-14 because our star QB goes down. At the time is was a pretty out of character comment from BB in terms of talking about other teams.
That's easy to say when not faced with the decision yourself. If they had a better backup and they had gone 6-10 or 7-9 instead, would their next five years have been better or worse with someone other than Luck?
 

CoffeeNerdness

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How do you know that? No one has more job security than BB. He is in no danger of being fired for a 2-14 season. He's never been in a position before where tanking might have made sense. He could very well conclude that the best long-term plan is to get Lawrence.
Last year everyone was convinced the Brian Flores lead Dolphins were blatantly tanking and headed toward something as bad as a winless season. Turns out they actually improved as the season went along and dealt the home town team a devastating loss at the end of the season and ended up with a nice pick at #5 but not #1. It's not in these guy's DNA to tank.

No days off. No seasons off.
 

bakahump

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I think we are all over thinking this.
If Hoyer starts it because Stidham is so bad that Hoyer is a better option. If thats true then Tanking and "resetting" the QB position is in the cards anyway.
(or Stidham is hurt early and significantly enough that 2020 is another lost year with no further insight into his potential).

Easy to see a situation where BB goes into Camp with Stidham (with high hopes) and Hoyer. Those hopes are not realized (or there is a serious Stidham injury) and with few options to improve the QB position, Hoyer becomes the starter by default and we have an unintentional "tank" year. (because like some of you i think this teams floor with Me starting at QB is like 2 wins. With Hoyer or equivalent(ly bad) QB its probably 4-6 wins)

More likely Stidham starts, "does what he does" good and bad and Hoyer is simply there to mentor.

I saw the Hoyer news and thought "Perfect". He either helps prove Stidham one way or another, or he is part of an unintentional tank that gives us a good pick (but not Lawrence).
 

RSFnFL

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That's easy to say when not faced with the decision yourself. If they had a better backup and they had gone 6-10 or 7-9 instead, would their next five years have been better or worse with someone other than Luck?
Completely understand your point. I even agree to some extent.

I just don't see BB doing it....at all. Imagine post game press conferences..."Looks like you guys are tanking? If not, do you think it was a bad decision to let Brady go?" We should setup a poll determining what week BB goes full scowl on the press.
 

Captaincoop

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I think we are all over thinking this.
If Hoyer starts it because Stidham is so bad that Hoyer is a better option. If thats true then Tanking and "resetting" the QB position is in the cards anyway.
(or Stidham is hurt early and significantly enough that 2020 is another lost year with no further insight into his potential).

Easy to see a situation where BB goes into Camp with Stidham (with high hopes) and Hoyer. Those hopes are not realized (or there is a serious Stidham injury) and with few options to improve the QB position, Hoyer becomes the starter by default and we have an unintentional "tank" year. (because like some of you i think this teams floor with Me starting at QB is like 2 wins. With Hoyer or equivalent(ly bad) QB its probably 4-6 wins)

More likely Stidham starts, "does what he does" good and bad and Hoyer is simply there to mentor.

I saw the Hoyer news and thought "Perfect". He either helps prove Stidham one way or another, or he is part of an unintentional tank that gives us a good pick (but not Lawrence).

It would be shocking (to me at least) if Belichick goes into camp with Stidham and Hoyer, making Stidham essentially the anointed starter. There will be a competition, or at least enough of one to keep a fire lit under Stidham.
 

Cellar-Door

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I also think it's not unlikely that if Stidham is injured or a total disaster Cody Kessler gets the first shot of the 3 guys on the roster.
 

Trautwein's Degree

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I can't believe that people are dissing Stidham without actually seeing him beyond a small sample size. It's not like he was some scrub fourth-string quarterback drafted in the sixth round.
This is a good point - Stidham was a 5 star recruit out of high school. He was good at Auburn. Belichick used a 4th round draft pick on him and has seen him in practice for over a year. Belichick certainly knew Brady was gone at this point last year. As always trust in Belichick. Hoyer will not be the starting QB next year.
 

ShaneTrot

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As to the tanking, I just wonder if in his heart of hearts, does BB believe that the NFL is so full of nitwit coaches that he can beat most with an inferior roster. It seems whenever the Pats have lost during the BB-Brady era, the Pats have been whipped physically (2 regular-season losses to Carroll's Seattle team, the Kapernick SF 2012 Sunday night game, first loss to Giants in the SB, losses to Baltimore in the playoffs, Baltimore last year, TN in 2018 and 202000 come to mind), suffered from strange officiating (I am looking at you Jerome Boger, Philly SB where the catch rules magically changed, in fairness, this happens to all teams), or played in Miami or Denver and they always seem to get every team's best punch. Everyone plays NE like it’s the SB.

How often does he get out-coached? The Wildcat Miami game in 2008, the 2010 playoff loss to the Jets, Andy Reid has done it a few times.
 

E5 Yaz

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How often does he get out-coached? The Wildcat Miami game in 2008, the 2010 playoff loss to the Jets, Andy Reid has done it a few times.
I bet if you got BB on truth serum, he'd tell you this one pissed him off more than any other loss.
 

Mooch

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Panthers are about to release Cam Newton. I would love the Pats to kick the tires on a short-term "prove it" deal. When healthy, he's an above-average QB with a very unique skillset that Belichick/McDaniels could really have some fun scheming with.
 

The_Powa_of_Seiji_Ozawa

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Panthers are about to release Cam Newton. I would love the Pats to kick the tires on a short-term "prove it" deal. When healthy, he's an above-average QB with a very unique skillset that Belichick/McDaniels could really have some fun scheming with.
On paper, I agree. But if you liked the David Price experience in Boston, you'll love the Cam Newton experience in Foxborough. No thanks. I want to see what Stidham can do.
 

5dice

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Lisfranc aftermath is scary (not to mention shoulder history). It has to be that the Panthers know something, right? Not just a new coach and new way of doing things?
 

RedOctober3829

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Lisfranc aftermath is scary (not to mention shoulder history). It has to be that the Panthers know something, right? Not just a new coach and new way of doing things?
Rhule hired Joe Brady to run Brady's offense. Bridgewater was available and had been in Brady's system in New Orleans. It's only natural for them to go get Teddy.
 

Soxy

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On paper, I agree. But if you liked the David Price experience in Boston, you'll love the Cam Newton experience in Foxborough. No thanks. I want to see what Stidham can do.
Yeah, that's the downside of Cam. He can be moody and surly with media, for sure. If things went sideways, it could get ugly.

I wouldn't rule out Newton as an option because of it, but you're not wrong. I think it's more likely the medicals and his asking price will rule him out, if anything. Though I'm not real sure where he expects to get paid, given the market conditions.
 

Mooch

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Lisfranc aftermath is scary (not to mention shoulder history). It has to be that the Panthers know something, right? Not just a new coach and new way of doing things?
They clearly liked Bridgewater better than Cam but that seems like a "fresh start" type of move as much as anything else.

Lisfranc injuries are a mixed bag for sure. Guys like Julio Jones and LeVeon Bell recovered fully from it. Other guys have struggled.
 

BaseballJones

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Not a big Cam guy here, but let's compare these two QB's last healthy seasons....

Newton (2018): 67.9%, 7.2 y/a, 24 td, 13 int, 94.2 rating, add in 488 yds rushing and 4 td
Brady (2019): 60.8%, 6.6 y/a, 24 td, 8 int, 88.0 rating, and obviously gives you nothing in the run game

Again, not a big Cam guy, and he's coming off an injury, and might cost a lot of $$. But if they want to roll the dice on a one-year deal to see if they can get something out of him....he's certainly *capable* of being pretty damned good. He did win an MVP.
 

heavyde050

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Not a big Cam guy here, but let's compare these two QB's last healthy seasons....

Newton (2018): 67.9%, 7.2 y/a, 24 td, 13 int, 94.2 rating, add in 488 yds rushing and 4 td
Brady (2019): 60.8%, 6.6 y/a, 24 td, 8 int, 88.0 rating, and obviously gives you nothing in the run game

Again, not a big Cam guy, and he's coming off an injury, and might cost a lot of $$. But if they want to roll the dice on a one-year deal to see if they can get something out of him....he's certainly *capable* of being pretty damned good. He did win an MVP.
I am pretty sure Brady played through several injuries last year (at least he was on the injury report for what seemed like half the season). I am not sure it is fair to call 2019 a "healthy" Brady season.
 

Cellar-Door

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I am pretty sure Brady played through several injuries last year (at least he was on the injury report for what seemed like half the season). I am not sure it is fair to call 2019 a "healthy" Brady season.
There is no such thing as a "healthy" season in the NFL if you define it that way. If you can play in most of the games it's a healthy season. I mean the "healthy" Newton season above was 14 games (he was shut down for the last 2) and he was on the injury report with a shoulder injury from October onward.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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The Patriots don't have any cap space.

Miguel has the Patriots at $3 million in cap space right now with a couple of moves not yet accounted for. There are a couple of points to understand:

1) We are in the offseason. That means that cap space appears way higher than it actually is. During the off season teams only need to stay under the cap calculated by taking their top 51 paid players into account. Once the season starts every player on the roster -- currently there are over 60 -- and the practice squad counts.

2) We have lots of draft picks. The players drafted will count against the cap once they sign contracts.

3) You need a certain amount to get through the season. Upwards of $7 million give or take. You can do it for $3 million and if you start the season 2-7 you really don't need to worry about it so much. But to complete a season with injuries and moves and all the things you need to do to make the playoffs is expensive.

The Patriots are going to need to make very significant moves just to get through the season. There seems to be a perception that just dealing with Thuney will solve things and they will free up the breathing space they need. We're talking $15 million at least in moves they are going to need to make before the season starts. Probably more.

It is a zero sum game too. Every dollar that they open up in cap space right now is likely a dollar that they move to a different year or is illusory because it means they got rid of a player that needs to be replaced. I do not believe they are going to fritter away a very significant advantage they have right now in terms of low 2021 cap liabilities just to be mediocre this year.

tl;dr -- I believe we are done at QB. Cam ain't happening.
 

tims4wins

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The Patriots don't have any cap space.

Miguel has the Patriots at $3 million in cap space right now with a couple of moves not yet accounted for. There are a couple of points to understand:

1) We are in the offseason. That means that cap space appears way higher than it actually is. During the off season teams only need to stay under the cap calculated by taking their top 51 paid players into account. Once the season starts every player on the roster -- currently there are over 60 -- and the practice squad counts.

2) We have lots of draft picks. The players drafted will count against the cap once they sign contracts.

3) You need a certain amount to get through the season. Upwards of $7 million give or take. You can do it for $3 million and if you start the season 2-7 you really don't need to worry about it so much. But to complete a season with injuries and moves and all the things you need to do to make the playoffs is expensive.

The Patriots are going to need to make very significant moves just to get through the season. There seems to be a perception that just dealing with Thuney will solve things and they will free up the breathing space they need. We're talking $15 million at least in moves they are going to need to make before the season starts. Probably more.

It is a zero sum game too. Every dollar that they open up in cap space right now is likely a dollar that they move to a different year or is illusory because it means they got rid of a player that needs to be replaced. I do not believe they are going to fritter away a very significant advantage they have right now in terms of low 2021 cap liabilities just to be mediocre this year.

tl;dr -- I believe we are done at QB. Cam ain't happening.
Curran seems to agree

View: https://twitter.com/NBCSBoston/status/1242406303877615616
 

Kliq

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A big no on Cam Newton from me. He is a loongggg way away from his MVP season, which was an anomaly within his career to begin with. Even before the lisfranc surgery, he was already banged up and I find it hard to believe he is going to be much better coming off the surgery. I suppose he would probably be slightly better than Stidham or Hoyer, but I'd rather just give Stidham a chance to either be good, or suck, than go with a one year of meh Cam Newton, who even on his best days, is missing a lot of open throws and turning the ball over a ton. He'd drive BB crazy. On top of all that, the dude can be a real asshat "It's funny hearing a women ask a question about football."

Cam is like Melo, where he is functionally not that good but certain people will still cling on to him and wonder why he isn't being treated like a superstar anymore.