2020 NFL: Offseason News and Notes

sodenj5

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Suppose he dislocates his knee in week 7 again, only this time he's Robert Edwards?
I understand both sides. Any player’s career can be over in an instant.

Mahomes is different though. He could have signed a 5 year deal for around 200 million, secured generational wealth for him and his family, and gotten another crack at free agency in the prime of his career.

I say this with the caveat of knowing nothing about the contract negotiations, but the dude is a generational talent with a ring and an MVP already.
 

thebtskink

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Challenged how? By who?
Different sport, but the NHL challenging the 17 year Kovalchuk deal springs to mind.

The end result being basically a contract is nullified and void if neither side intends to adhere to the deal until the end.

Though I suppose the lack of relative guarantees in the NFL allows more wiggle room.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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Different sport, but the NHL challenging the 17 year Kovalchuk deal springs to mind.

The end result being basically a contract is nullified and void if neither side intends to adhere to the deal until the end.

Though I suppose the lack of relative guarantees in the NFL allows more wiggle room.
That was entirely designed to circumvent the salary cap, no?
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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Only helps him if the whole contract is guaranteed which is almost never the case in the NFL.
Still can help him or the team though. Let's say he got $200M guaranteed; factor in he's still got 2 years left and this was tacked on, he could get hit by a bus tomorrow and even if another $200-250M drop off because funny money, he's still sitting pretty damn good.
 

snowmanny

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I’d it’s only $150Million guaranteed he’s crazy. Except for maybe three NBA players he is the most valuable athlete in US team sports.
 

cshea

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That was entirely designed to circumvent the salary cap, no?
Yep, it was 17-years, $102 million. $95 million was to be paid out in the first 10 years ,and then the remaining $7 million over the last 7 years. The NHL calculates cap hit by AAV, so those last 7 years were essentially in place to circumvent the cap It was a common practice in the NHL, but the Devils took it to the extreme. That's a different story, it doesn't seem very analogous to the reported Mahomes deal.
 

nattysez

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Not sure I buy this -- how could they NOT include some contingencies for cap going up or down dramatically? -- but Schefter says: Patrick Mahomes’ 10-year extension is worth $450 million, sources tell ESPN. The injury guarantee is $140 million, per source. The contract does not contain language that ties its value to a percentage of the salary cap. Richest deal in sports’ history.

View: https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/1280245527955812354
 

BaseballJones

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$45 million a year. Maybe by year 6 it will be a bargain. But holy smokes I want to see KC build a team around a QB making $45 million instead of $4 million.

Good luck with that.

Of course, he's so good, they probably can get away with a lesser group around him. But still.
 

Cotillion

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Ehh... don’t buy any of it until the full contract is seen and the guarantees and other stuff can be broken down. Still if he isn’t getting 40 mill a year he’s crazy to lock in for that long. There has to be outs on both sides.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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$45 million a year. Maybe by year 6 it will be a bargain. But holy smokes I want to see KC build a team around a QB making $45 million instead of $4 million.

Good luck with that.

Of course, he's so good, they probably can get away with a lesser group around him. But still.
Meh, over ten years there's plenty of time to restructure that a bunch of times; he'll never hit the books for a full $45M in a given season unless he actually does get hurt; im kind of shocked he took that little in guaranteed money though
 

Average Game James

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Meh, over ten years there's plenty of time to restructure that a bunch of times; he'll never hit the books for a full $45M in a given season unless he actually does get hurt; im kind of shocked he took that little in guaranteed money though
It is $30mn more in guaranteed money than the prior record (Goff, $110mn) so it's not exactly chump change. And KC did have some leverage considering they have him for 2 more years at $28mn, then could franchise him a couple times at probably something like $30-35mn per (I'm assuming a decent jump in the QB franchise number of $27mn this year given all the big deals given out). Add in some uncertainty around what the cap will look like going forward if the 2020 season is shortened/cancelled or doesn't have any fans, and going from ~$100mn over 4 years while taking injury risk to a guaranteed $140mn isn't terrible.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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It is $30mn more in guaranteed money than the prior record (Goff, $110mn) so it's not exactly chump change. And KC did have some leverage considering they have him for 2 more years at $28mn, then could franchise him a couple times at probably something like $30-35mn per (I'm assuming a decent jump in the QB franchise number of $27mn this year given all the big deals given out). Add in some uncertainty around what the cap will look like going forward if the 2020 season is shortened/cancelled or doesn't have any fans, and going from ~$100mn over 4 years while taking injury risk to a guaranteed $140mn isn't terrible.
Franchise tag is a minimum 120% raise. So let's assume going off $33M, which is probably low in two years, but let's use it - that's $38.4, $46.08; all guaranteed each season and all one time lump sums to the cap. $117M over 3 years, assuming health. So for $23M he turned over the keys for 10 years. And his deal has no ties to the cap changing, it's straight terms, per Schefter.
 

sodenj5

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It is $30mn more in guaranteed money than the prior record (Goff, $110mn) so it's not exactly chump change. And KC did have some leverage considering they have him for 2 more years at $28mn, then could franchise him a couple times at probably something like $30-35mn per (I'm assuming a decent jump in the QB franchise number of $27mn this year given all the big deals given out). Add in some uncertainty around what the cap will look like going forward if the 2020 season is shortened/cancelled or doesn't have any fans, and going from ~$100mn over 4 years while taking injury risk to a guaranteed $140mn isn't terrible.
Goff also signed a 4 year extension, not a 10 year extension.

The AAV of guaranteed money isn’t even in the same zip code.
 

Average Game James

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Franchise tag is a minimum 120% raise. So let's assume going off $33M, which is probably low in two years, but let's use it - that's $38.4, $46.08; all guaranteed each season and all one time lump sums to the cap. $117M over 3 years, assuming health. So for $23M he turned over the keys for 10 years. And his deal has no ties to the cap changing, it's straight terms, per Schefter.
Mahomes has 2 years left on his current deal at $3mn and $25mn. Then franchise year 1 at $33mn and year 4 at $40mn gets to 4 years, $101mn. And the % of cap language piece would normally be beneficial only to the player, but this is not a normal offseason and it's a lot less certain than usual that the cap will continue to just rise 5-8% every year. It's not all that improbable to imagine the cap resets down materially next year and takes a couple years just to grow back to its 2020 baseline.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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Mahomes has 2 years left on his current deal at $3mn and $25mn. Then franchise year 1 at $33mn and year 4 at $40mn gets to 4 years, $101mn. And the % of cap language piece would normally be beneficial only to the player, but this is not a normal offseason and it's a lot less certain than usual that the cap will continue to just rise 5-8% every year. It's not all that improbable to imagine the cap resets down materially next year and takes a couple years just to grow back to its 2020 baseline.
Huh?

His first year of being capped would be $33M; then year 2, $33M x 1.2 = $39.6; year 3, $39.6 x 1.2 = 47.52 (i actually botched the math first time; it's actually $120M, so he swapped for $20M). These numbers, per ESPN, have no change if the cap rises or falls. That's what hes locked into, it's not the NBA where it's a % by default. The cap can default or reset or whatever, he has a contract saying that's his pay. The $28M he has coming the next two years doesn't factor in, those are already locked in guaranteed. So for $20M he traded getting tagged for 3 years in return for giving the Chiefs 10 years of control.
 

sodenj5

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Huh?

His first year of being capped would be $33M; then year 2, $33M x 1.2 = $39.6; year 3, $39.6 x 1.2 = 47.52 (i actually botched the math first time; it's actually $120M, so he swapped for $20M). These numbers, per ESPN, have no change if the cap rises or falls. That's what hes locked into, it's not the NBA where it's a % by default. The cap can default or reset or whatever, he has a contract saying that's his pay. The $28M he has coming the next two years doesn't factor in, those are already locked in guaranteed. So for $20M he traded getting tagged for 3 years in return for giving the Chiefs 10 years of control.
This is a Master P/Ricky Williams level contract. I don’t see how it doesn’t end in Mahomes holding out eventually.

Edit: I just checked. Mahomes and Tua have the same agent. This is incredible.
 

nattysez

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bankshot1

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Guarantee mechanism? It sounds like the team's decision to exercise the option to pay the next guaranteed tranche of the contract (1 or 2 or 3 years or whatever) and if it doesn't, Mahomes become a FA .
 

nattysez

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I don't think the term "guarantee mechanisms" has been used before in sports, so I'm not sure anyone can be sure what it means until the NFL or Mahomes's agents deign to explain it. It could mean anything from mutual option to performance-based guarantees to allowing KC to opt-out if the guarantee will exceed some % of the cap.
 

RedOctober3829

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deep inside Guido territory

Marciano490

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This is the best part of this entire story (though this is great for both Mahomes and the NFL; he's awesome).

View: https://twitter.com/KCStar/status/1280246506126262274

A liquor store manager in KC scooped everybody on this, including Schefter:

View: https://twitter.com/gentlemanchief/status/1280197887373316098


Her twitter is understandably blowing up but she seems to be taking it all in stride.
That’s awesome. I hit on a biotech stock the same way. If I were a Billions trader, I’d have every liquor store owner in the city on payroll.
 

InstaFace

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$45 million a year. Maybe by year 6 it will be a bargain. But holy smokes I want to see KC build a team around a QB making $45 million instead of $4 million.

Good luck with that.

Of course, he's so good, they probably can get away with a lesser group around him. But still.
Right now, Lamar Jackson probably looks like a Giphy search for "Excited dancing"

And somewhere down in the bowels of Barad-Foxboro, a whisper can be heard: "good.... GOOOOD."
 

BaseballJones

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Right now, Lamar Jackson probably looks like a Giphy search for "Excited dancing"

And somewhere down in the bowels of Barad-Foxboro, a whisper can be heard: "good.... GOOOOD."
Haha I'm sure you're right on both counts. If Jackson has a monster year this year, he's going to make ridiculous money. And BB is going to have to face these talented guys one way or another. No doubt he'd just as soon they be making $45 million a year instead of $2-4 million a year. It doesn't make them less talented players, but it reduces what their teams can put around them, thus weakening those teams as a whole.
 

Rough Carrigan

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That’s awesome. I hit on a biotech stock the same way. If I were a Billions trader, I’d have every liquor store owner in the city on payroll.
Ax: Are you certain, Dollar Bill?
Bill Stern: (recalls conversation that morning with owner of liquor store #432 in his listings, the one closest to the biotech taken public last year. Store owner tells him, "They bought two cases of Dom for spraying and one of Cristal for drinking." Men and women in lab coats are seen spraying champagne like they just won a sports championship.) I am not uncertain.
 

nighthob

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There has to be an out in there somewhere, no? 10 years is too long for a dude like Mahomes. In year 5 or 6 he’s going to be underpaid. That’s just how these deals work.

If I’m in Chiefs, I’m thrilled. Good for Mahomes if this is what he wants.
That kind of money is tough to say no to when you’re on your rookie deal and still two years from free agency.
 

BaseballJones

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Looks like the contract is 10 years, more than $500 million. I know they can shift money around etc. But you cannot have a contract that size and not have humongous cap hits. There's just no way. KC is going to have to make huge sacrifices elsewhere to accommodate this contract. Mahomes is already the best player in the world. I don't know how much better he can realistically get. So it's not like they'll be adding a great player at QB in the years to come. He's already here and he's already basically at his peak. So the only thing really they can do is go down from here roster-wise.

With the Pats...Brady went from a nice young QB to the GOAT. But it took time. His contract grew, but the talent and production grew too, which helped compensate for the fact that his increased salary meant making cuts elsewhere. But with Mahomes...honestly, how much better can he get to compensate for the fact that he will be making on average more than 12 times what he was, that his salary is going from $4 million up to $50 million a year?

Just as a reminder...

2018: 66.0%, 5,097 yds, 8.8 y/a, 50 td, 12 int, 113.8 rating, MVP
2019: 65.9%, 4,031 yds, 8.3 y/a, 26 td, 5 int, 105.3 rating, SB champ

Where can he improve? Maybe completion percentage. But keep in mind that unlike Brees, Mahomes airs it out constantly. It's what makes them so dangerous. He's throwing lower-percentage passes in general compared to Brees. He's not going to complete 70% of his passes throwing deep. His average intended air yards per pass was 8.6. Brady's was 7.6. Brees' was 6.7. It's really difficult to complete 70% of your passes throwing the ball as deep on average as Mahomes does. But maybe that goes up a tick. He doesn't throw many interceptions, but maybe he gets a little better at that. He already runs well - 272 and 218 rushing yards the past two seasons (4.5 and 5.1 averages), respectively. He's not a "running QB" like Jackson or Cam. But he's a great athlete who can run when necessary.

So I don't really see how he can get much better. KC already averages ungodly numbers of points and yards with him at the helm. I mean, during last year's playoffs they scored 51, 35, and 31 points, for an average of 39 a game. In the playoffs. I don't know how much better he or they can get offensively.
 

sodenj5

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This post from PFT basically sums it up:

In the first two years, Mahomes will earn $33.361 million. Through the first three years, Mahomes will earn $63.08 million. Through the first four years, Mahomes will earn $103.53 million. By way of comparison, Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill will earn $118 million over the next four years — and he won’t be tied to his team for another eight seasons.
Bottom line? In his agents’ apparent zeal to claim that they negotiated the first half-billion-dollar deal in league history, plenty of meat was left on the bone. Mahomes didn’t need to commit for a dozen years, and he could have pushed hard for greater protection against inflation of the salary cap and the quarterback market — like a set percentage of the salary cap.

The reality is this is only a massive deal on paper. Mahomes handed over a ton of his prime earning years for next to no reason.The Chiefs have all of the control and they’re likely doing cartwheels in the halls of Arrowhead today
 

JohnnyK

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If you follow DeSean Jackson on Instagram, you’ll see a variety of things.
There are summer workout videos, messages of social justice and racial inequality, and family photos as well. The material is pretty typical.
This weekend a couple of Crossing Broad readers and Twitter followers pinged us because D Jax was sharing some more… questionable material in the form of alleged Louis Farrakhan quotes on his IG.
 

Seels

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Oh don't stop there. It's full on anti-semitic Hitler nonsense.

Social media makes everything bad except dogs
 

nighthob

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Looks like the contract is 10 years, more than $500 million. I know they can shift money around etc. But you cannot have a contract that size and not have humongous cap hits. There's just no way. KC is going to have to make huge sacrifices elsewhere to accommodate this contract. Mahomes is already the best player in the world. I don't know how much better he can realistically get. So it's not like they'll be adding a great player at QB in the years to come. He's already here and he's already basically at his peak. So the only thing really they can do is go down from here roster-wise.

With the Pats...Brady went from a nice young QB to the GOAT. But it took time. His contract grew, but the talent and production grew too, which helped compensate for the fact that his increased salary meant making cuts elsewhere. But with Mahomes...honestly, how much better can he get to compensate for the fact that he will be making on average more than 12 times what he was, that his salary is going from $4 million up to $50 million a year?

Just as a reminder...

2018: 66.0%, 5,097 yds, 8.8 y/a, 50 td, 12 int, 113.8 rating, MVP
2019: 65.9%, 4,031 yds, 8.3 y/a, 26 td, 5 int, 105.3 rating, SB champ

Where can he improve? Maybe completion percentage. But keep in mind that unlike Brees, Mahomes airs it out constantly. It's what makes them so dangerous. He's throwing lower-percentage passes in general compared to Brees. He's not going to complete 70% of his passes throwing deep. His average intended air yards per pass was 8.6. Brady's was 7.6. Brees' was 6.7. It's really difficult to complete 70% of your passes throwing the ball as deep on average as Mahomes does. But maybe that goes up a tick. He doesn't throw many interceptions, but maybe he gets a little better at that. He already runs well - 272 and 218 rushing yards the past two seasons (4.5 and 5.1 averages), respectively. He's not a "running QB" like Jackson or Cam. But he's a great athlete who can run when necessary.

So I don't really see how he can get much better. KC already averages ungodly numbers of points and yards with him at the helm. I mean, during last year's playoffs they scored 51, 35, and 31 points, for an average of 39 a game. In the playoffs. I don't know how much better he or they can get offensively.
Do you know where there's room for improvement? Throwing to lesser targets. But I think that Mahomes is so good that that won't be an issue. Know who this contract kills? Either Baltimore or the team that signs Jackson in free agency. Fantastic runner, not nearly as good at throwing. Once they have to start reducing the talent at the receiving spots to pay for his extension there are going to be issues.
 

Oppo

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This post from PFT basically sums it up:






The reality is this is only a massive deal on paper. Mahomes handed over a ton of his prime earning years for next to no reason.The Chiefs have all of the control and they’re likely doing cartwheels in the halls of Arrowhead today
Replying to PFT- comparing the next 3 years is nothing but click bait. Tannehill was a FA and Mahomes was under contract for 2 more years.
 

sodenj5

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Replying to PFT- comparing the next 3 years is nothing but click bait. Tannehill was a FA and Mahomes was under contract for 2 more years.
I see this being brought up, and it’s a fair point, but barring catastrophic injury, Mahomes was breaking the bank. Like short of an Alex Smith life altering injury, someone was paying Mahomes a record breaking deal.

I think it’s fair to point out that a maybe top 15? Quarterback is going to be making more in guaranteed money the next 4 years than the guy that has an MVP, a ring, and signed a 12 year deal. It illustrates the point that Mahomes probably left a bunch of money on the table. No, he wasn’t a free agent like Tannehill, but he arguably had more leverage.
 

Ferm Sheller

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Maybe he learned a lesson in following the story of an alumnus of his father's former team, Mookie Betts.
 

BaseballJones

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How much is too much? I think we all agree that Mahomes is the best player in the world. Jackson is great, but Mahomes is really on another level entirely. There's nothing a QB needs to do that he doesn't do...at an elite level, at least as far as I can tell. And he's not even yet 25 years old. It's like when LeBron was in his prime - a lot of other great players, but nobody on his level.

But there's a salary cap - a real one. Every dollar spent on Mahomes is a dollar you cannot spend on someone else. How much money is too much? Let's not talk about length of contract. Let's just talk about on a one-year basis, how much money is too much even for Mahomes? $40 million? $45 million? $50 million? More? At a certain point, obviously mathematically it becomes too much - there is a literal limit he can be paid or else you cannot field a team. And obviously there's a point at which it's clear he's well worth THIS amount (whatever THIS is). So the truth lies somewhere in-between. But what is that line?