Put your money on Steph, just cos he’s the best FT shooter ever (.907 career / .906 playoffs to Dame’s .891 career / .879 playoffs). But it’s probably pretty close to a coin flip, with the rare miss by either of them potentially swinging the balance. Could be a fun subplot at the end of the year, with CP3, Kyrie and others also vying for crown, as you note.
It’s pretty remarkable how similar Curry and Lillard have been in general this season. Per 36...
Curry 31.6 pts on .656 ts / 5.8 reb / 6.3 ast / 3.4 tov
Lillard 29.5 pts on .633 ts / 4.5 reb / 7.1 ast / 3.0 tov
Dame has logged more mpg (36.0 to 33.7) while Steph has played more games (25 to 22). Both have quasi single-handedly dragged their respective beaten-up teams to slightly-above .500 records. Steph is #2 in the league by RPM at +7.86, Dame #5 at +5.48. Their overall battle should also be fun to track, especially if they can lift their teams into the 4th/5th seed range where MVP becomes a semi-realistic possibility.
I guess LeBron, Jokic and Embiid are the current frontrunners?
I love looking at box scores, so it will be fun to scour them each night seeing if they missed a free throw. Dame will probably end up with a sizable number in more attempts, although I'd think his usage will go down a bit when CJM comes back. It's virtually impossible to shoot better than 90% from the line, which is where both guys tend to shoot, minus Steph's second year. I think the lack of noise/crowd behind the basket has probably increased the ability for these guys.
I don't really get the LeBron MVP hype. It was definitely a narrative heading into the year that he was going to try to win the MVP, after he proved himself to still be the best player in the NBA in the bubble, but his season so far, 25-8-8, is outstanding but not particularly dominant. He was shooting well-above his career average from three for start of this season, but is starting to come back to earth, so he might only average like, 23-24 ppg. If we won the award he would obviously deserve it, but it doesn't seem like a blow-away season for him.
Jokic, Dame and Steph are going to be in trouble because their teams probably won't be good enough to crack the MVP conversation, even if one of them ends up with the best statistical season. At this point I think Embiid stands the best chance at winning, even though I still think he is kind of a fraud; he's having a dominant season on both ends and the Sixers may end up with the #1 seed. Durant is also very much in the mix as well. Giannis won't get the right kind of attention because voters are tired of voting for him and he's in "let's see this guy prove it in the playoffs" category, but the Bucks could be the #1 seed again and he's averaging 28-11-5 and shooting 56% from the floor.