2019 Trade Deadline

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Cesar Crespo

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Also worth noting DD and Avila are pretty tight. This would line up a lot like the Pomeranz trade with an extra year of control on our end. Groomer plus Dalbec might be enough.
I think that's a laughable offer. I doubt Dalbec has much value around the league. Reality is he's a 24 year old in AA hitting .229 in 279 AB. It won't matter how much power he has or how much he walks when he's hitting .175 in the majors.

They would want Groome, Chavis, Mata and probably more. Maybe I'm underrating our farm system or overrating Matthew Boyd but his season this year screams "break out."
 

bosockboy

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I think that's a laughable offer. I doubt Dalbec has much value around the league. Reality is he's a 24 year old in AA hitting .229 in 279 AB. It won't matter how much power he has or how much he walks when he's hitting .175 in the majors.

They would want Groome, Chavis, Mata and probably more. Maybe I'm underrating our farm system or overrating Matthew Boyd but his season this year screams "break out."
Hard to say. Pomeranz was having similar breakout in SD and went for Espinoza straight up. Isolated example for sure, but DD is a phenomenal trader.
 

chrisfont9

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What is going on with Groome currently? I googled but didn't see any recent updates.

DET is going to ask a lot for Boyd, probably more than he is worth (and I do think he is actually pretty valuable). It's worth noting that DD traded for him once already when he was the DET GM, he was part of the return package from TOR for David Price in 2015. BOS could really use a Boyd/Greene package, but they would have to empty the farm for that and I'm still not sure they'd be the high bidder.
Last I heard, Groome had not been assigned to a team yet. I think he is not expected to throw in a game this year except maybe toward the end.
 

jon abbey

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They would want Groome, Chavis, Mata and probably more. Maybe I'm underrating our farm system or overrating Matthew Boyd but his season this year screams "break out."
He's fallen back to earth some the past month, but DET doesn't need to move him if they are not bowled over by the offer. Also Boyd is an analytics guy like Bauer and Ottavino (all work with Driveline), and seems like a perfect fit for HOU who are very thin already in the rotation with Cole hitting FA after this season also.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Hard to say. Pomeranz was having similar breakout in SD and went for Espinoza straight up. Isolated example for sure, but DD is a phenomenal trader.
Sure, but Espinoza wasn't come off TJ surgery at the time and was a top 20 prospect in the game. Jay Groome is probably 5th or 6th in the Sox farm system and isn't even in the top 100. It's not comparable at all.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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He's fallen back to earth some the past month, but DET doesn't need to move him if they are not bowled over by the offer. Also Boyd is an analytics guy like Bauer and Ottavino (all work with Driveline), and seems like a perfect fit for HOU who are very thin already in the rotation with Cole hitting FA after this season also.
Yeah, with three years of control left, the Tigers have no reason to move Boyd right now. Have there been any rumors at all that they're listening on him or is it all just fan wishcasting?
 

jon abbey

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Yeah, with three years of control left, the Tigers have no reason to move Boyd right now. Have there been any rumors at all that they're listening on him or is it all just fan wishcasting?
No, they're definitely listening (link below), they made the mistake of not moving Fulmer when they could have gotten a big package for him and he got worse and then hurt and they missed their window. I expect Boyd to go to the Astros if he is moved, though, as they have the right combo of need and movable prospect talent.

 

Cesar Crespo

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He's fallen back to earth some the past month, but DET doesn't need to move him if they are not bowled over by the offer. Also Boyd is an analytics guy like Bauer and Ottavino (all work with Driveline), and seems like a perfect fit for HOU who are very thin already in the rotation with Cole hitting FA after this season also.
Kinda. He's given up a ton of HRs of late but he's been striking out a ton too. His career HR rate is 1.6/9 which is cause for concern, especially in Fenway. His HR% is 4.1%, the ML average is 3.1%. 1% doesn't seem like all that big a deal but it's an extra HR roughly every 4 starts.

Since June: 6 starts, 34.1 IP, 41 hits allowed, 54k/5bb, 12 HRs, 6.03 era. .287/.309/.608 against with a .372 BAbip. 36% K%, 3.3% BB%. 8.0% HR%.

Maybe he's just really hittable, I dunno. I'd still be willing trade any combination of 3 prospects for him outside of Casas and I doubt any combination without him included would be enough.
 

jon abbey

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This is an interesting pretty new site that is fun to play around with. I don't think it's always perfectly accurate but at least they try to quantify player's current trade values. You can see here that, according to them anyway, it would literally take 3 of Chavis/Casas/Dalbec/Duran to match value on Boyd unless BOS was going to move major league pieces like JBJ or Vazquez.

 

Plympton91

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The Red Sox can’t afford to trade major league capable pieces for rentals or players who are going to be expensive next year. They have to get minimum salary production wherever they can in order to reset the luxury tax at some point. And, they need to build a back end of the bullpen.

Moreover, the Red Sox are what their record says they are. They’re the 6th best team in the AL, already behind a Cleveland team that just added Cleavinger and may add Kluber for the stretch run. No two trades are going to be better than what Cleveland’s getting from getting healthy.

Maybe the Rays will continue collapsing or the Twins implode, but that’s offset by the chance that the Rangers or Angels continue to overachieve and beat the Sox out that way.

They shouldn’t be buyers or sellers. Go as far as second half improvement from Sale and Porcello will take them, and reload for next year with a major league capable bullpen and a full spring training for your starters.
 

chawson

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I don’t see them wasting trade chips going all in on a rental like Bumgarner or Wheeler. I could see them trading Chavis or Dalbec for a low-end starter entering arb with possible upside they think they can tweak, who could then step in as the Porcello replacement next year.

Guys like that are pretty finite. They include Bundy from the O’s; Richards from Miami; Matz from the Mets; Heaney from LAA; Lauer, Strahm and Lamet from SD; and Daniel Norris from the Tigers. I could see Trevor Richards being a fit. He’s got an excellent changeup and the Marlins (and Padres) in particular have too many major league pitchers knocking on the door not to move some.
 

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Hard to say. Pomeranz was having similar breakout in SD and went for Espinoza straight up. Isolated example for sure, but DD is a phenomenal trader.
Sure, but Espinoza wasn't come off TJ surgery at the time and was a top 20 prospect in the game. Jay Groome is probably 5th or 6th in the Sox farm system and isn't even in the top 100. It's not comparable at all.
The trade was Pomeranz and fake medicals for Espinoza.

And which one ended up missing so much time?
 

YTF

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The Red Sox can’t afford to trade major league capable pieces for rentals or players who are going to be expensive next year. They have to get minimum salary production wherever they can in order to reset the luxury tax at some point. And, they need to build a back end of the bullpen.

Moreover, the Red Sox are what their record says they are. They’re the 6th best team in the AL, already behind a Cleveland team that just added Cleavinger and may add Kluber for the stretch run. No two trades are going to be better than what Cleveland’s getting from getting healthy.

Maybe the Rays will continue collapsing or the Twins implode, but that’s offset by the chance that the Rangers or Angels continue to overachieve and beat the Sox out that way.

They shouldn’t be buyers or sellers. Go as far as second half improvement from Sale and Porcello will take them, and reload for next year with a major league capable bullpen and a full spring training for your starters.
This is a fair point, A healthy Kluber and Clevinger would be like two big in season acquisitions however a big assumption with Kluber who was very unKluberlike before the broken arm. If he and Carrasco are unable to contribute in a meaningful way in the second half things could be difficult for them. If I remember correctly, their offense was not great early on so it will be interesting to see if they can continue the pace.
 
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Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
This is an interesting pretty new site that is fun to play around with. I don't think it's always perfectly accurate but at least they try to quantify player's current trade values. You can see here that, according to them anyway, it would literally take 3 of Chavis/Casas/Dalbec/Duran to match value on Boyd unless BOS was going to move major league pieces like JBJ or Vazquez.

That app says that Dalbec/Holt/Velazquez would match Wheeler for value. I'm a little surprised that a 2-month rental, even of a very solid ML pitcher like Wheeler, is worth enough to require that much make-weight in a Dalbec trade, but maybe I'm overrating Dalbec.

If I'm doing the math right, this would boost the Sox' payroll this year by less than $1M.
 
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Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
I don’t see them wasting trade chips going all in on a rental like Bumgarner or Wheeler. I could see them trading Chavis or Dalbec for a low-end starter entering arb with possible upside they think they can tweak, who could then step in as the Porcello replacement next year.
Thing is, though, as the web app JA linked to shows, the prospect price of a rental--even a good one--is going to be much less than a guy who hasn't entered arb yet, unless he's so mediocre/low-ceiling that there wouldn't be much point in adding him. Of course the app is just one piece of data, and not a very robust one at that. But FWIW, it shows Richards having twice as much value as Wheeler, and that sounds about right to me.

I think a more likely outcome is a deal like the one I suggested above, where the Sox buy a rental with one top-10 prospect and one or more MLB make-weights to reduce the payroll hit.
 

chawson

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Thing is, though, as the web app JA linked to shows, the prospect price of a rental--even a good one--is going to be much less than a guy who hasn't entered arb yet, unless he's so mediocre/low-ceiling that there wouldn't be much point in adding him. Of course the app is just one piece of data, and not a very robust one at that. But FWIW, it shows Richards having twice as much value as Wheeler, and that sounds about right to me.

I think a more likely outcome is a deal like the one I suggested above, where the Sox buy a rental with one top-10 prospect and one or more MLB make-weights to reduce the payroll hit.
All those guys I listed have roughly the same value as Chavis or Dalbec per that BTR app.

Edit: My bad, you’re right. Richards is listed with a bit higher value. It was late and I must have confused him with Urena, another guy who’d be a fit (if he weren’t hurt).

I was thinking the Marlins since they’ve got Urena, Richards, Smith, Yamamoto, Gallen, Alcantara, Lopez, and Elieser Hernandez all ready for the rotation.
 
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Sandy Leon Trotsky

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All those guys I listed have roughly the same value as Chavis or Dalbec per that BTR app.

Edit: My bad, you’re right. Richards is listed with a bit higher value. It was late and I must have confused him with Urena, another guy who’d be a fit (if he weren’t hurt).

I was thinking the Marlins since they’ve got Urena, Richards, Smith, Yamamoto, Gallen, Alcantara, Lopez, and Elieser Hernandez all ready for the rotation.
I hope this is more the case.... the Sox immediate need is someone to throw 6 quality-ish innings once per rotation (apparently that's asking a lot...) but they should address a long term need in Porcello's eventual replacement in the process and should be willing to give up some decent pieces in the process. Casas being the only guy.... .possibly Mata.... I'd be upset about losing.
 

InsideTheParker

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Am I wrong to assume that BROCKHOLT will go in a trade for a pitcher because whenever they trade for a pitcher they choose one of my binkies to let go? (Iglesias, Shaw)
 

nvalvo

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That app says that Dalbec/Holt/Velazquez would match Wheeler for value. I'm a little surprised that a 2-month rental, even of a very solid ML pitcher like Wheeler, is worth enough to require that much make-weight in a Dalbec trade, but maybe I'm overrating Dalbec.

If I'm doing the math right, this would boost the Sox' payroll this year by less than $1M.
That seems like a plausible trade, but remember: Holt has negative value to a rebuilding team because he's an impending FA who is making Arb3 money.
 

chawson

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Wheeler’s really good and may come at a relative discount if Brodie doesn’t want to send him crosstown. It’s a bit puzzling to me why DD would trade for 10 of his starts unless he really wants to sign him long-term, but maybe that’s the point.

We need either 1 or 2 starters next year, depending on Eovaldi’s health, and I’d rather use Dalbec to land one of those. Non-scrap heap free agent options are Cole, Bumgarner, Wheeler, Gibson, Hamels, Porcello, Ryu, Roark, Wacha and Odorizzi. I think Wheeler’s the smartest (non-Cole) target of those, so maybe this would be an audition.
 

Murby

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If Wheeler is available, would Diaz also be available and be of interest to go after even if he's had a sub-par year for him? Buy low, hope for a bounce back?
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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If Wheeler is available, would Diaz also be available and be of interest to go after even if he's had a sub-par year for him? Buy low, hope for a bounce back?
Even in a "down" year, Diaz is still dirt cheap with three years of control remaining. The Mets aren't likely making him available so they'd need to be bowled over with an offer. No way the Red Sox have enough to offer to shake Diaz loose.
 

BaseballJones

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Even in a "down" year, Diaz is still dirt cheap with three years of control remaining. The Mets aren't likely making him available so they'd need to be bowled over with an offer. No way the Red Sox have enough to offer to shake Diaz loose.
The question is: How good is Diaz, actually?

First two seasons: 3.06 era, 135 era+, 1.16 whip, 13.5 k/9 (pretty good)
Last season: 1.96 era, 210 era+, 0.79 whip, 15.2 k/9 (elite)
This season: 5.50 era, 74 era+, 1.46 whip, 14.7 k/9 (other than the k/9 number, those are godawful)

He's not as good as his 2018 season might indicate, nor is he as bad as his 2019 season (so far) might indicate. He's probably pretty much what he showed his first two seasons: a pretty good late-inning reliever. That's worth something for sure. But I'd suggest that both 2018 and 2019 are outliers for him, and he shouldn't be viewed as either elite or bad. He's pretty good, capable, like most relievers, of big ups and downs. Huge up last year, huge down this year, who knows for next year and beyond? I'd expect on the whole for Diaz to be pretty good.

He makes peanuts right now but goes to arbitration the next three offseasons. I suspect he will get a sizable bump in pay, but will likely still be pretty reasonable. I think the Sox could possibly entice the Mets to deal him. I don't know if the Sox have any interest in that though.
 

chawson

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...and a .421 BABIP. The Mets defense is possibly historically bad. Diaz is pitching maybe a bit worse than last year but he’s still plenty good.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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The question is: How good is Diaz, actually?

First two seasons: 3.06 era, 135 era+, 1.16 whip, 13.5 k/9 (pretty good)
Last season: 1.96 era, 210 era+, 0.79 whip, 15.2 k/9 (elite)
This season: 5.50 era, 74 era+, 1.46 whip, 14.7 k/9 (other than the k/9 number, those are godawful)

He's not as good as his 2018 season might indicate, nor is he as bad as his 2019 season (so far) might indicate. He's probably pretty much what he showed his first two seasons: a pretty good late-inning reliever. That's worth something for sure. But I'd suggest that both 2018 and 2019 are outliers for him, and he shouldn't be viewed as either elite or bad. He's pretty good, capable, like most relievers, of big ups and downs. Huge up last year, huge down this year, who knows for next year and beyond? I'd expect on the whole for Diaz to be pretty good.

He makes peanuts right now but goes to arbitration the next three offseasons. I suspect he will get a sizable bump in pay, but will likely still be pretty reasonable. I think the Sox could possibly entice the Mets to deal him. I don't know if the Sox have any interest in that though.
If he were available, the Sox would of course be interested in him. So would 28 other teams I imagine. Anything that the Sox offer that might entice the Mets, someone else can beat with ease. I can't tell if you're over-estimating what the Sox have to offer or under-estimating what the Mets might think of him, but I don't think there's a chance in hell that the Mets trade him in the next couple weeks short of a Godfather type proposal. The Red Sox can't do that.

The Mets acquired him this past winter for a reason. I don't think they're suddenly going to be afraid of having to pay him in his arbitration-eligible years.
 

BaseballJones

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If he were available, the Sox would of course be interested in him. So would 28 other teams I imagine. Anything that the Sox offer that might entice the Mets, someone else can beat with ease. I can't tell if you're over-estimating what the Sox have to offer or under-estimating what the Mets might think of him, but I don't think there's a chance in hell that the Mets trade him in the next couple weeks short of a Godfather type proposal. The Red Sox can't do that.

The Mets acquired him this past winter for a reason. I don't think they're suddenly going to be afraid of having to pay him in his arbitration-eligible years.
You're probably right. I just don't know how good he really is. Pretty good I think, despite his awful year this year.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Can we not just drop shit like this in here? Link it, or just don't post it
That was pure speculation. They have the need and prospects to make it happen.

I posted the Danny Duffy as a possible candidate: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/duffyda01.shtml
He's not good, but he's healthy and would be a pickup for probably not much of a prospect I'd imagine. He's owed $15.25M on the season so if nothing else was moved from the Sox 25 man, he'd push them past the 2nd threshold. I'd prefer to pass on him.... as he seems about as good as Valazquez would be as a 6 inning starter.... but I can imagine some desperation might make him end up as the 5th man. Yuck.
Duffy caught my attention from a baseballtraderumors bit that mentioned him as a possible trade target. Can't find it now
 
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YTF

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The Sox have been reported for the last couple of days to be in contact with the Mets about acquiring Zack Wheeler. I'm not sure if it's even possible or what the Sox may have to make this work, but might it make sense to try to work out a deal that includes both Wheeler and Dominic Smith? Defensively speaking, the Mets are a mess with Smith being one of several players playing out of position. ATM he doesn't seem to be a very good fit in the outfield and his natural position of first base clearly belongs to someone else. I know most Sox fans love the current defensive alignment in the outfield, But the Mets need outfielders and they really need a centerfielder. With JBJ displaying what may be his most impressive offense to date, should the Sox consider selling high? Could/should he be part of a package to acquire Wheeler and Smith? Is there enough down on the farm to round this sort of deal out? I'm thinking maybe Smith takes over the LH platoon at first with Moreland's contract up at the end of the season. I'm not convinced about what I'm offering here, just sort of thinking out loud and curious what the rest of you might think of there being a legit chance of the Sox bringing Wheeler in. If so, would it make sense to bring in a young 1B with power to add to the young, cost controlled infield of Devers, Bogearts and Chavis?
 
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Cesar Crespo

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The Sox have been reported for the last couple of days to be in contact with the Mets about acquiring Zack Wheeler. I'm not sure if it's even possible or what the Sox may have to make this work, but might it make sense to try to work out a deal that includes both Wheeler and Dominic Smith? Defensively speaking, the Mets are a mess with Smith being one of several players playing out of position. ATM he doesn't seem to be a very good fit in the outfield and his natural position of first base clearly belongs to someone else. I know most Sox fans love the current defensive alignment in the outfield, But the Mets need outfielders and they really need a centerfielder. With JBJ displaying what may be his most impressive offense to date, should the Sox consider selling high? Could/should he be part of a package to acquire Wheeler and Smith? Is there enough down on the farm to round this sort of deal out? I'm thinking maybe Smith takes over the LH platoon at first with Moreland's contract up at the end of the season. I'm not convinced about what I'm offering here, just sort of thinking out loud and curious what the rest of you might think of there being a legit chance of the Sox bringing Wheeler in. If so, would it make sense to bring in a young 1B with power to add to the young, cost controlled infield of Devers, Bogearts and Chavis?
I'm not sure why the Mets would want JBJ when he only has one year of control left. I'd have to imagine they could get more for Dominic Smith who is still very cheap and under control for another 5 years. Dominic Smith is exactly the type of player the Sox should be targeting though. They shouldn't be trading for rentals. They don't have the prospects.
 

YTF

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I'm not sure why the Mets would want JBJ when he only has one year of control left. I'd have to imagine they could get more for Dominic Smith who is still very cheap and under control for another 5 years. Dominic Smith is exactly the type of player the Sox should be targeting though. They shouldn't be trading for rentals. They don't have the prospects.
Should have checked first, I thought JBJ had 2 more seasons before becoming FA eligible. I generally agree with your take on trading for rentals this season which is why I thought trying to work JBJ and Smith into the deal might merit some consideration.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Should have checked first, I thought JBJ had 2 more seasons before becoming FA eligible. I generally agree with your take on trading for rentals this season which is why I thought trying to work JBJ and Smith into the deal might merit some consideration.
I could see the Mets wanting Andrew Benintendi but I don't know enough about Dominic Smith. If he's really a 150 OPS+ bat and the Sox think Benintendi is what he is, it could make sense.

I'm checking out Dominic Smith's minor league stats and they are all over the place.
 

chawson

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The Mets already have Brandon Nimmo, who is maybe Beni’s closest active comp (or at least he was last year), as part of a cost-controlled outfield that includes Conforto and McNeil. Smith is nice, but the Red Sox aren’t going to trade a valuable piece for a first baseman — remember how many 110 wRC+ first basemen were freely available two off seasons ago? — and Benintendi is many times more valuable than Smith.

If Benintendi goes it’ll be for a frontline pitcher, and the list of guys with comparable value is very short (Castillo, Taillon, Musgrove, Glasnow, Paddack, Bieber, Clevinger if healthy, maybe Giolito). I’d love to see something like Beni/Houck/Chatham for Castillo and Puig, and then offer Puig a contract in the 3/$30M range for his 29-31 years, but it won’t happen.
 

chawson

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You want to offer Puig 10 mil per in his first free agency for 3 years? He's making 9.7 now.
I would, yeah. He had a bad/unlucky first month in Cincinnati but he’s raking now, a .385 wOBA with 10 stolen bases since May 3, and his launch angle and barrel rates are better than ever. He’s a tough fit in Boston’s media market but 3/$30m would be a really good deal.

Edit: Oh, maybe you’re saying 3/$30 is too low. Probably, though I think his market will be depressed a bit because he’s streaky, and because of (real or perceived) character issues.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
I would, yeah. He had a bad/unlucky first month in Cincinnati but he’s raking now, a .385 wOBA with 10 stolen bases since May 3, and his launch angle and barrel rates are better than ever. He’s a tough fit in Boston’s media market but 3/$30m would be a really good deal.
I've thought about Beni for Castillo too, but the problem with taking Puig is that Puig = $. If the Sox have already resigned themselves to going over the secondary LT limit yet again, then it doesn't matter so much, but otherwise, I can't see that happening.

The other problem with Beni for Castillo is that while the hometown Beni connection would no doubt have some appeal to Cincy from a marketing POV, he's actually a year closer to FA than Castillo is, so from a rebuilding POV it actually accelerates the franchise's timetable a bit -- probably not what they're looking for.

They'd probably be much more interested in trading Tanner Roark, who's having a nice year and is an FA in 2020. But like Puig, he'd raise the Sox' LT liability significantly, so again that's probably a non-starter.
 

Danny_Darwin

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Despite their record, the Reds are very much in this thing. They have a better differential than the Brewers or Cardinals, and it's not like the Cubs are running away with the Central. Nor, for that matter, are the Nats running away with the WC. And certainly if they were to blow things up, I very much doubt they'd entertain offers on Castillo who's nowhere near free agency.
 

YTF

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I think the Mets need to get an offer that blows them away to move Syndegard. They have a good young core of position players (albeit some are playing the wrong position) and if they move Syndegard or deGrom they'll need to rebuild the staff. As it is they'll probably be looking to add a starter or two next season
 

chawson

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I would consider giving up Beni+ for Syndegard, but I suspect that + would be too much.
It’s more likely not nearly enough, unless Syndergaard is more hurt than we realize.

I've thought about Beni for Castillo too, but the problem with taking Puig is that Puig = $. If the Sox have already resigned themselves to going over the secondary LT limit yet again, then it doesn't matter so much, but otherwise, I can't see that happening.

The other problem with Beni for Castillo is that while the hometown Beni connection would no doubt have some appeal to Cincy from a marketing POV, he's actually a year closer to FA than Castillo is, so from a rebuilding POV it actually accelerates the franchise's timetable a bit -- probably not what they're looking for.

They'd probably be much more interested in trading Tanner Roark, who's having a nice year and is an FA in 2020. But like Puig, he'd raise the Sox' LT liability significantly, so again that’s probably a non-starter
Seems silly to trade valuable pieces for as a pending free agent like Roark. Re Puig, I think it may be possible, or a negligible difference, with his prorated salary depending on which day a trade goes down. Maybe we throw Nuñez with a C prospect somewhere to make it work (in this deep hypothetical).
 

DeadlySplitter

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I'm surprised anyone wants Puig. he's talented but he's not very coachable. we saw him in the WS uncork bad throws from the outfield and refusing to follow defensive alignment notecards. the Dodgers wanted him gone for years.

maybe that changed getting out of LA but I'd be buyer beware.
 

crow216

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I think the Mets need to get an offer that blows them away to move Syndegard. They have a good young core of position players (albeit some are playing the wrong position) and if they move Syndegard or deGrom they'll need to rebuild the staff. As it is they'll probably be looking to add a starter or two next season
That's really not true. The Mets have 4 pitchers who are arguably at their highest value possible, 5 if you really want to count Vargas. They won't have all 5 of these guys when they are ready contend. Their problem is that they always think they are ready to contend.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
Seems silly to trade valuable pieces for as a pending free agent like Roark.
It's what you do if you're a buyer* with a weak farm system.

The Red Sox' situation is complicated by their luxury tax predicament. If they had $20M or so of cushion to deal with, dealing for Roark would make perfect sense -- he could probably be had for a middling prospect or two (the trade simulator app referenced above says a fair price would be Chatham plus a lottery ticket like Brayan Bello). But they don't, so it doesn't.

*Personally, I don't think the Sox should be buyers. I think they should stand pat and hope things come together. But I don't know if Dombrowski will be able to get away with that, so I suspect he'll try to do something.
 

chawson

Member
Aug 1, 2006
1,677
It's what you do if you're a buyer* with a weak farm system.

The Red Sox' situation is complicated by their luxury tax predicament. If they had $20M or so of cushion to deal with, dealing for Roark would make perfect sense -- he could probably be had for a middling prospect or two (the trade simulator app referenced above says a fair price would be Chatham plus a lottery ticket like Brayan Bello). But they don't, so it doesn't.

*Personally, I don't think the Sox should be buyers. I think they should stand pat and hope things come together. But I don't know if Dombrowski will be able to get away with that, so I suspect he'll try to do something.
Yes yes, but I think it’s a bad idea if our status as a 2019 buyer compromises our search for pitching in 2020. We need to replace Porcello (and maybe Eovaldi) next year, and trading Chatham and Bello for Roark doesn’t help that.

The options as I see them are:

1. Sign upper-tier FA SP (Cole, Wheeler)
2. Sign mid-tier FA SP (Bumgarner, Ryu, Gibson, Odorizzi, Porcello, et al.)
3. Trade for upper/mid-tier SP (Castillo, Syndergaard, Taillon, Boyd, Stroman, Minor, Lynn)
4. Trade for young SP with upside (Lamet, Strahm, Richards, Urena, Mahle, et al.)
5. Promote from within (Houck, Mata)

If DD is sure he can do 1 or 2, then trading for Roark now is fine. But if he has to do 3 or 4, trading away even someone like Chatham hurts his position.
 

YTF

Well-Known Member
Silver Supporter
SoSH Member
That's really not true. The Mets have 4 pitchers who are arguably at their highest value possible, 5 if you really want to count Vargas. They won't have all 5 of these guys when they are ready contend. Their problem is that they always think they are ready to contend.
Something I should have made clear in the post that you quoted is that I was assuming Wheeler would be traded with all of the interest that has been reported and the idea of Syndegard being moved would leave two holes in their staff. Vargas has been a very pleasant surprise lately, bit if Wheeler and Syndegard both go (big if) who do you see stepping in? Genuinely curious what there is behind deGrom, Vargas and Matz who has not been overly impressive. Perhaps Lugo gets another shot in the rotation?
 
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