2019 Trade Deadline

chawson

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For what it's worth, Chavis has a pretty big reverse split this year: .288/.367/.473 vs RHP vs .180/.231/.443 vs LHP.
Most of that damage was done in his first two weeks. Since 5/5 he’s hit .267/.335/.411 vs RHP, which is alright.

LoMo is not the long term answer to anything, but maybe he sticks for a couple months as a guy with something to prove. There’s a pretty decent chance Chavis will never have more value than he does right now as a trade chip.
 

mfried

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Felipe Vazquez? Lights out with a good contract moving forward, he'd be a shut down closer for a number of years at a good price. The Pirates might be sellers depending on the next few weeks and if they decide to offer Vazquez, would likely ask for a significant overpay. For him or anyone, I think the Sox have some valuable potential trade pieces including Chavis or Dalbec (they're redundant), Chatham (having a pretty good year, and we have plenty of shortstops in the system with X signed long term), Duran, D Hernandez, Houck, Mata and maybe even ERod if Wright looks good as a starter
I’m against ERod for Vazquez. D. Hernandez works for me,
 

Hawk68

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I guess it comes down to the definition of "a lot".

I thought this was the most interesting quote in the article:


Perhaps a bit of Eovaldi and Pearce buyer's remorse. DD's posterior might be starting to feel a tinge of warmth.
This is the most interesting quote to me:

It’s not a luxury tax issue, it’s a question of how much money do we want to lose? We’re already over budget and we were substantially over our budget last year and this year. We’re not going to be looking to add a lot of payroll."
-John Henry


The NESV group principal owners Werner and Henry are 69 and 70 years old respectively.

In order to position themselves for exit, they need to keep the balance sheet in good shape.
 

nvalvo

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I understand the snark, but deadline RPs really haven't been yielding huge prices in prospects in recent years.

An example: the Astros got Ryan Pressly, who is good, from the Twins for minor league RHP Jorge Alcala and minor OF Gilberto Celestino, neither of whom was a ranked prospect. Celestino's young, but that package is not steep. Now clearly Felipe Vazquez is better than Ryan Pressly, but I think the point stands. Milwaukee got Joakim Soria for two minor leaguers, only one of whom I'd call a prospect.
 

jon abbey

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An example: the Astros got Ryan Pressly, who is good, from the Twins for minor league RHP Jorge Alcala and minor OF Gilberto Celestino, neither of whom was a ranked prospect. Celestino's young, but that package is not steep.
Pressly hadn't really broken out yet, and the two prospects were #10 and #15 in a strong HOU system at the time. Vazquez will cost decidedly more than that, plus if he is actually available (the PIT GM has said he is not), I'd think a bunch of NL teams led by the Dodgers (who have been rumored interested already) would push the bidding up.

Edit: Also Pressly had 1 1/2 years of control, Vazquez is controlled cheaply through 2023.
 

Danny_Darwin

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If Eovaldi to the pen really is the plan, then it would stand to reason that they’re more likely to use the trade chips on a starting pitcher. With that in mind, I’ll throw out a name: Zack Wheeler of the Mets. He’s striking out a career-high number of hitters per nine. His walk rate is at a career low. He is on pace to throw a career high in innings, so that might be a concern. His ERA is a little high, but his FIP is reasonable. Fangraphs has him out WAR-ing Price and BBref has him ahead of Sale.

From the Mets’ side, even though they’ve got a few corner types, Dalbec still makes sense for them since Frazier is a free agent after this season and McNeil is needed elsewhere. They also could use one of Boston’s future relievers like Darwinzon or Houck. Even then, Wheeler is a pure rental, so he might not even cost that much. He’d be owed a portion of his ~$6 million salary, so I think the Red Sox can swing that.

This all relies on the Mets acting like a normal team, though.
 

BaseballJones

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The Mets have Mark Vientos, a 19-year old 3b in A ball, who's listed as their #4 prospect, but he's a long way from the majors. Dalbec for Wheeler would be a nice deal for both teams probably.
 

bosockboy

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Rosenthal in The Athletic today speculating the Sox might have been scouting Mike Minor recently.
Not sure that makes sense with Texas in the race.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
Rosenthal in The Athletic today speculating the Sox might have been scouting Mike Minor recently.
Not sure that makes sense with Texas in the race.
It makes zero sense. Minor's their ace, and they have a better record than the Sox. The only possible deal there is something complicated where both teams give up major pieces to balance their rosters better, but I'm having trouble seeing what that might be.
 

judyb

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This thread started when Jon Morosi reported they were scouting Matthew Boyd the day after Minor started a game at Detroit against Boyd, it seems likely both were guessing who they were actually scouting.
 

jon abbey

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This thread started when Jon Morosi reported they were scouting Matthew Boyd the day after Minor started a game at Detroit against Boyd, it seems likely both were guessing who they were actually scouting.
Yes, exactly, this is the entire Rosenthal item (and the answer IMO is obviously Shane Greene, for the Red Sox anyway):

"For what it’s worth, the Padres and Red Sox were the only teams to fly in scouts to Detroit for the June 26 start between two potential trade candidates, Tigers left-hander Matthew Boyd and Rangers lefty Mike Minor.

The intent of scouting missions is not always as clear as it seems – evaluators sometimes focus on less-than-obvious targets. Boyd certainly did not help his value in June by allowing 10 home runs in 29 innings and having his ERA increase from 2.85 to 3.72."
 

edoug

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It makes zero sense. Minor's their ace, and they have a better record than the Sox. The only possible deal there is something complicated where both teams give up major pieces to balance their rosters better, but I'm having trouble seeing what that might be.
The Rangers need IF help badly. So Chavis should really interest them. The teams willingness to trade them or what the deal would look like I have no clue.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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If only they had a starter who could come off the IL and jump into the rotation...

Oh wait.

I assume at this point it's all posturing and deception aimed at pulling off a deal without the Yankees or Astros poaching it with their deeper prospect pockets and greater payroll flexibility.
 

Mueller's Twin Grannies

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To me the "casting a wide net" phrasing (we're still doing that, right?) indicates that it might not be anyone particularly impressive, or costly, and maybe a fungible 5th starter or even some guy not currently on a roster. That or they're planning on shedding some salary.

If only they'd had the foresight to deal Porcello, they could have had so much more flexibility in the offseason. At this point, they're likely going to lose him for nothing if they don't plan on re-signing him. Then again, maybe they should if he wants to be here so they can focus the money elsewhere this offseason. He won't command nearly as much money this time around and may even sign a two-year deal to stay where he's comfortable.
 

chawson

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Not sure how that's going to happen if they can't add much salary. Advanced scouting is really going to have to be on the money with this one.
I wonder what the Orioles would accept for Dylan Bundy. He’s been borderline unplayable at times over the last couple years, but Baltimore pitchers suffer through terrible defense (and, I’d imagine, some morale issues). He still gives up a lot of home runs, but he’s got a near-elite swinging strike rate and is still only 26, makes $2.8M this year and under control through 2021. His xWOBA since May 15 is a very solid .283 (Chris Sale’s is .284).
 

RedOctober3829

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If they are going to be adding a starting pitching, to me that would signal that they are going to have to trade someone off the major league roster to do so. All indications are that they are not wanting to add salary. The rental market does not look good either. After Bumgarner, the list is pretty bad. The next best options in a rental market that have a salary that would interest the Red Sox look like Homer Bailey(97 ERA+) and Jordan Lyles(100 ERA+)
 

shaggydog2000

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If they are going to be adding a starting pitching, to me that would signal that they are going to have to trade someone off the major league roster to do so. All indications are that they are not wanting to add salary. The rental market does not look good either. After Bumgarner, the list is pretty bad. The next best options in a rental market that have a salary that would interest the Red Sox look like Homer Bailey(97 ERA+) and Jordan Lyles(100 ERA+)
I think they would be very interested in a league average arm for their 5th starter slot.
 

Al Zarilla

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If they are going to be adding a starting pitching, to me that would signal that they are going to have to trade someone off the major league roster to do so. All indications are that they are not wanting to add salary. The rental market does not look good either. After Bumgarner, the list is pretty bad. The next best options in a rental market that have a salary that would interest the Red Sox look like Homer Bailey(97 ERA+) and Jordan Lyles(100 ERA+)
Bumgarner would be so



The Giants locked him up for $58.06M 2012 to 2019, slave labor pay for him. I imagine he really wants to get paid now. Are his best years behind him though?
 

Danny_Darwin

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If only they had a starter who could come off the IL and jump into the rotation...

Oh wait.

I assume at this point it's all posturing and deception aimed at pulling off a deal without the Yankees or Astros poaching it with their deeper prospect pockets and greater payroll flexibility.
This sort of thing isn't really Dombrowski's style, although calculated leaks like this aren't usually either. There have been a few times, though, when he's acquired starting pitching at a time when the bullpen was arguably the greater area of need, such as 2018 (Eovaldi), 2014 (Price), and 2012 (A. Sanchez).

If they are going to be adding a starting pitching, to me that would signal that they are going to have to trade someone off the major league roster to do so. All indications are that they are not wanting to add salary. The rental market does not look good either. After Bumgarner, the list is pretty bad. The next best options in a rental market that have a salary that would interest the Red Sox look like Homer Bailey(97 ERA+) and Jordan Lyles(100 ERA+)
I mean, I wrote a whole thing about Wheeler already...
 

RedOctober3829

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This sort of thing isn't really Dombrowski's style, although calculated leaks like this aren't usually either. There have been a few times, though, when he's acquired starting pitching at a time when the bullpen was arguably the greater area of need, such as 2018 (Eovaldi), 2014 (Price), and 2012 (A. Sanchez).


I mean, I wrote a whole thing about Wheeler already...
Sorry forgot about Wheeler. I think his market is pretty steep including the team across town who wants him badly. Maybe Brodie would send him to Boston in part to spite the Yankees.
 

BrooklynDog45

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I wonder what the Orioles would accept for Dylan Bundy. He’s been borderline unplayable at times over the last couple years, but Baltimore pitchers suffer through terrible defense (and, I’d imagine, some morale issues). He still gives up a lot of home runs, but he’s got a near-elite swinging strike rate and is still only 26, makes $2.8M this year and under control through 2021. His xWOBA since May 15 is a very solid .283 (Chris Sale’s is .284).
If were talking O's pitching I'd rather take a shot with Cashner as inning eater #5. Sox would need to send contracts back along with B- prospect to balance.

Cashner for Thornburg, Nunez and Chatham.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Bumgarner would be so



The Giants locked him up for $58.06M 2012 to 2019, slave labor pay for him. I imagine he really wants to get paid now. Are his best years behind him though?
FWIW, the Red Sox are on his limited no-trade list. Acquiring him might require offering him a little something more than what he's already contracted to make.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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This sort of thing isn't really Dombrowski's style, although calculated leaks like this aren't usually either. There have been a few times, though, when he's acquired starting pitching at a time when the bullpen was arguably the greater area of need, such as 2018 (Eovaldi), 2014 (Price), and 2012 (A. Sanchez).
It's debatable what is the greater need. As I've posted before, I think most of the problems they're having with the bullpen stems from them being short-handed in the rotation. They started the year with five starters plus a sixth "long man/spot starter". Thanks to injuries, they've muddled through most of the season with four starters and an "opener". I don't think the bullpen personnel they have was equipped to do a bullpen game once a week, and due to poor performances, they've effectively had to do it twice in some weeks. The wear has been showing of late.
 

chawson

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If were talking O's pitching I'd rather take a shot with Cashner as inning eater #5. Sox would need to send contracts back along with B- prospect to balance.

Cashner for Thornburg, Nunez and Chatham.
Cashner is as uninspiring as it gets, and even with his “rebound” this year he’s one of the very worst pitchers in baseball against RHH, but I suppose he’s in the conversation. That deal you propose would free up more cash than it takes in, which would precipitate another trade. Otherwise there’d be no point in including a prospect as good as Chatham.

Bumgarner would be so



The Giants locked him up for $58.06M 2012 to 2019, slave labor pay for him. I imagine he really wants to get paid now. Are his best years behind him though?
For sure yes. Bumgarner’s not done, but his numbers away from AT&T — the most extreme pitchers’ park in baseball — are roughly league average, maybe a little below. It’s his age-29 season and his average fastball is 91.7 mph. For reference, David Price’s average fastball in his age-29 season was 94.2 mph.

He’s useful, but definitely not someone the Sox should give a lot of money to at this point, imo.
 

bosox79

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If only they'd had the foresight to deal Porcello. He won't command nearly as much money this time around and may even sign a two-year deal to stay where he's comfortable.
You think so? At worst, he's a league average pitcher who throws 190-200 innings every year and doesn't turn 31 until December. I'm guessing he gets about the same deal he signed last time, 4 years/80 million.
 

jon abbey

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You think so? At worst, he's a league average pitcher who throws 190-200 innings every year and doesn't turn 31 until December. I'm guessing he gets about the same deal he signed last time, 4 years/80 million.
I think 2/20 or 2/24 is more likely, he's had a 4.64 ERA (4.36 FIP) in 494 innings since the start of 2017. Charlie Morton is older but much better and only got 2/30 last winter.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
I think 2/20 or 2/24 is more likely, he's had a 4.64 ERA (4.36 FIP) in 494 innings since the start of 2017. Charlie Morton is older but much better and only got 2/30 last winter.
I think you're so correct about this that if you had to draw up a list of 2020 FAs Most Likely to Accept a Qualifying Offer, he'd probably be at the top of it.

He's seen his last big contract. He's still useful, but pitchers who can do what he does are not rare.
 

YTF

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Cashner is the the final year of a 2 year 16 million dollar contract so assuming that'a 8 mil per, he's roughly 3.5 left on this season's deal. There is also a team option (not sure how much) for next season, so I'm sure that option will be a sticking point in getting Cashner to approve a deal to the Sox.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Cashner is the the final year of a 2 year 16 million dollar contract so assuming that'a 8 mil per, he's roughly 3.5 left on this season's deal. There is also a team option (not sure how much) for next season, so I'm sure that option will be a sticking point in getting Cashner to approve a deal to the Sox.
Cashner doesn't have a no trade so there should be no sticking points as his approval isn't needed. The 2020 option is for $10M, but it becomes guaranteed if he exceeds 340 combined innings for 2018-19. He's currently at 249.1 so it's unlikely he'll trigger that.

He's also got some performance bonuses, and I'm not sure how those are parsed in the event he's traded. He's already triggered $500K for games started, with another $625K if he reaches 20 starts (he's at 17) and then $400K if he gets to 30 (unlikely). He also has incremental bonuses for every 10 innings over 100 he throws (he's at 96.1). So there's a potential for an extra $1M or so in additional salary that an acquiring team might have to cover or negotiate.

He seems a more likely target than Bumgarner.
 

chrisfont9

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Joel Sherman is reporting the Sox have had talks about free agent to be Zack Wheeler with the Mets.

The only players the Sox should be offering are the 3rd tier guys like Chatham, Crawford, Scherff. Offer them up, get the best SP/RP you can get, based on the last few deadlines, you should get something decent.
 

DeadlySplitter

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I'm going to throw up in my mouth a little if we give up Groome as a centerpiece for Boyd.

Wheeler doesn't excite me much either. don't overpay for a marginal upgrade, please.
 

Benni

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Top six relievers listed by # of appearances, one is 2018 and one is 2019. Which one looks like a tire fire and which one looks like a championship bullpen?

1.70 ERA, 2.87 FIP, 280 ERA+, 1.027 WHIP
3.41 ERA, 4.71 FIP, 140 ERA+, 1.136 WHIP
4.93 ERA, 2.85 FIP, 97 ERA+, 1.356 WHIP
3.48 ERA, 3.36 FIP, 137 ERA+, 1.114 WHIP
4.08 ERA, 3.71 FIP, 117 ERA+, 1.755 WHIP
2.51 ERA, 3.93 FIP, 190 ERA+, 1.116 WHIP

4.39 ERA, 3.57 FIP, 101 ERA+, 1.355 WHIP
4.20 ERA, 4.19 FIP, 105 ERA+, 1.333 WHIP
2.74 ERA, 3.13 FIP, 161 ERA+, 0.995 WHIP
3.65 ERA, 2.71 FIP, 121 ERA+, 1.265 WHIP
3.18 ERA, 4.15 FIP, 139 ERA+, 1.447 WHIP
3.27 ERA, 4.42 FIP, 136 ERA+, 1.210 WHIP

Is it really as simple as not having Kelly and Kimbrel? Kelly's sporting an ERA north of 6 (4.30 FIP) in LA. Many of the blown saves everyone is bemoaning have come before the 9th inning so I fail to see how much of a difference Kimbrel would make in that regard.
Kimbrel was the key to that bullpen last year. He stabilized everyone’s roll because we didnt have to worry about the 9th. You can mix and match in the 6,7,8, to get to the closer. If we had a good closer this year we would probably still be chasing the Yankees but it would be a race.
 

bosox79

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I'm going to throw up in my mouth a little if we give up Groome as a centerpiece for Boyd.
I'd be doing cartwheels. He's having a break out year and leading the league in K/BB ratio at 7.10. His K% is at 32.0% this year, his career K% prior to this year was 19.9%. His BB% is 4.5%. Career BB% before this year was 7.7%. He's never really walked guys and now he's figured out how to strike them out. He's also not a FA until 2023.

Meanwhile, Jay Groome has pitched all of 62.0 IP since we drafted him in 2016 and hasn't pitched in a game in almost 2 years. I'd throw in Dalbec too.

edit: What Boyd are we talking about? Matthew Boyd? Has to be, he's the only Boyd in the majors. I don't get your line of thinking at all. Jay Groome? Really?
 

Danny_Darwin

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I'm going to throw up in my mouth a little if we give up Groome as a centerpiece for Boyd.

Wheeler doesn't excite me much either. don't overpay for a marginal upgrade, please.
Marginal upgrade over whom? He’s more than that if you’re talking about the current bullpen days taking up the fifth starter’s position.
 

BornToRun

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Wheeler has solid peripherals and had a pretty good 2018. I’d be on board with bringing him in.
 

BaseballJones

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I'm going to throw up in my mouth a little if we give up Groome as a centerpiece for Boyd.

Wheeler doesn't excite me much either. don't overpay for a marginal upgrade, please.
Is a Groome-for-Boyd deal rumored to be possible? I haven't heard anything on that.

The last three years for Boyd - if nothing else, trending in the right direction:

2017 (age 26): 5.27 era, 4.51 fip, 85 era+, 1.56 whip, 3.5 bb/9, 7.3 k/9
2018 (age 27): 4.39 era, 4.45 fip, 101 era+, 1.16 whip, 2.7 bb/9, 8.4 k/9
2019 (age 28): 3.87 era, 3.56 fip, 123 era+, 1.12 whip, 1.7 bb/9, 11.9 k/9

And as @bosox79 pointed out, under control through 2022. Might be a guy who has a pretty nice cost-controlled prime ahead of him. Seems easily worth dealing Groome for.
 

jon abbey

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What is going on with Groome currently? I googled but didn't see any recent updates.

DET is going to ask a lot for Boyd, probably more than he is worth (and I do think he is actually pretty valuable). It's worth noting that DD traded for him once already when he was the DET GM, he was part of the return package from TOR for David Price in 2015. BOS could really use a Boyd/Greene package, but they would have to empty the farm for that and I'm still not sure they'd be the high bidder.
 

bosox79

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Is a Groome-for-Boyd deal rumored to be possible? I haven't heard anything on that.

The last three years for Boyd - if nothing else, trending in the right direction:

2017 (age 26): 5.27 era, 4.51 fip, 85 era+, 1.56 whip, 3.5 bb/9, 7.3 k/9
2018 (age 27): 4.39 era, 4.45 fip, 101 era+, 1.16 whip, 2.7 bb/9, 8.4 k/9
2019 (age 28): 3.87 era, 3.56 fip, 123 era+, 1.12 whip, 1.7 bb/9, 11.9 k/9

And as @bosox79 pointed out, under control through 2022. Might be a guy who has a pretty nice cost-controlled prime ahead of him. Seems easily worth dealing Groome for.
It's like trading Anderson Espinoza for Drew Pomeranz, except Anderson Espinoza would have been coming off TJ surgery and Pomeranz had an added year of control. The only guy they could trade in the farm system that might cause me to throw up a little is Triston Casas.

What is going on with Groome currently? I googled but didn't see any recent updates.
Article from May 23, 2019: https://www.overthemonster.com/2019/5/23/18636953/red-sox-draft-history-jay-groome-alex-scherff-aaron-perry

Eventually, he came back for 2018 but never got to pitch and eventually underwent Tommy John surgery from which he is still working his way back. The hope is that he’ll be back at some point late this year. If you’re looking for a silver lining here, Groome is still only 20 and 2020 will only be his age-21 season, so he’s far from over the hill.
 

bosockboy

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What is going on with Groome currently? I googled but didn't see any recent updates.

DET is going to ask a lot for Boyd, probably more than he is worth (and I do think he is actually pretty valuable). It's worth noting that DD traded for him once already when he was the DET GM, he was part of the return package from TOR for David Price in 2015. BOS could really use a Boyd/Greene package, but they would have to empty the farm for that and I'm still not sure they'd be the high bidder.
Also worth noting DD and Avila are pretty tight. This would line up a lot like the Pomeranz trade with an extra year of control on our end. Groome plus Dalbec might be enough.
 
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