2019 Pats Defense: What Are We Witnessing?

Eddie Jurak

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So it counts opponents' drives that ended in a FG as a score for that opponent, but not the drive that ended in a Gunner muff recovered for a TD by the Jets?
Yes. Hard to attribute Gunner muffing a punt to the defense who forced that punt to begin with. I guess you could say the same about FGs, though. If we do that then the Pats defense has a point differential of 0.

A more sophisticted metric would incorporate field position and turnovers. One could credibly argue that the Pats defense has a positive differential because they are even on TD scored vs allowed and the Pats offense has punched in a couple of short-field TDs after turnovers forced by the defense.
 

InstaFace

MDLzera
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Sep 27, 2016
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Yes. Hard to attribute Gunner muffing a punt to the defense who forced that punt to begin with. I guess you could say the same about FGs, though. If we do that then the Pats defense has a point differential of 0.

A more sophisticted metric would incorporate field position and turnovers. One could credibly argue that the Pats defense has a positive differential because they are even on TD scored vs allowed and the Pats offense has punched in a couple of short-field TDs after turnovers forced by the defense.
You can set it up and cut it a lot of different ways, and all of them come to the conclusion that this defense is an absolutely absurd, off-the-charts anomaly.

I ran through the events that might or might not be relevant to such a metric in Post 225, so if you want to craft something off that starting point, be my guest. Just trying to keep it apples to apples by putting the data somewhere.
 

Reverend

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Yes. Hard to attribute Gunner muffing a punt to the defense who forced that punt to begin with. I guess you could say the same about FGs, though. If we do that then the Pats defense has a point differential of 0.

A more sophisticted metric would incorporate field position and turnovers. One could credibly argue that the Pats defense has a positive differential because they are even on TD scored vs allowed and the Pats offense has punched in a couple of short-field TDs after turnovers forced by the defense.
I think you’re well on your way to inventing DVOA.
 

tims4wins

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Updating the Pats opposing records - Steelers and Jets won, Miami lost, opponents' win % jumps from .241 to .281

Ravens:
Game 1 (@ Steelers, finished 9-7): 0 points, 193 yards passing, 30 yards rushing, 223 total yards
Game 2 (vs. Jacksonville, finished 7-9): 36 points, 375 yards passing, 46 yards rushing, 421 total yards
Game 3 (@ Miami, finished 11-5): 19 points, 152 yards passing, 106 yards rushing, 258 total yards
Game 4 (vs Cincinnati, finished 4-12): 0 points, 90 yards passing, 4 yards rushing, 94 total yards
Game 5 (@ Cleveland, finished 3-13): 0 points, 207 yards passing, 23 yards rushing, 230 total yards
Game 6 (@ Jacksonville, finished 7-9): 10 points, 253 yards passing, 95 yards rushing, 348 total yards
Totals: 65 points, 1,270 yards passing, 304 yards rushing, 1,574 total yards, total opponents' record of 41-55, .427%)

Pats:
Game 1 (vs Steelers, currently 2-4): 3 points, 276 yards passing, 32 yards rushing, 308 total yards
Game 2 (@ Miami, currently 0-5): 0 points, 142 yards passing, 42 yards rushing, 184 total yards
Game 3 (vs Jets, currently 1-4): 14 points, 69 yards passing, 36 yards rushing, 105 total yards
Game 4 (at Bills, currently 4-1): 10 points, 240 yards passing, 135 yards rushing, 375 total yards
Game 5 (at Washington, currently 0-5): 7 points, 75 yards passing, 145 yards rushing, 220 total yards
Game 6 (vs. Giants, currently 2-4): 14 points, 161 yards passing, 52 yards rushing, 213 total yards
Total: 48 points, 966 yards passing, 442 yards rushing, 1,408 total yards, total opponents' record of 9-23, .281%)
 

Saints Rest

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Updating the Pats opposing records - Steelers and Jets won, Miami lost, opponents' win % jumps from .241 to .281

Ravens:
Game 1 (@ Steelers, finished 9-7): 0 points, 193 yards passing, 30 yards rushing, 223 total yards
Game 2 (vs. Jacksonville, finished 7-9): 36 points, 375 yards passing, 46 yards rushing, 421 total yards
Game 3 (@ Miami, finished 11-5): 19 points, 152 yards passing, 106 yards rushing, 258 total yards
Game 4 (vs Cincinnati, finished 4-12): 0 points, 90 yards passing, 4 yards rushing, 94 total yards
Game 5 (@ Cleveland, finished 3-13): 0 points, 207 yards passing, 23 yards rushing, 230 total yards
Game 6 (@ Jacksonville, finished 7-9): 10 points, 253 yards passing, 95 yards rushing, 348 total yards
Totals: 65 points, 1,270 yards passing, 304 yards rushing, 1,574 total yards, total opponents' record of 41-55, .427%)

Pats:
Game 1 (vs Steelers, currently 2-4): 3 points, 276 yards passing, 32 yards rushing, 308 total yards
Game 2 (@ Miami, currently 0-5): 0 points, 142 yards passing, 42 yards rushing, 184 total yards
Game 3 (vs Jets, currently 1-4): 14 points, 69 yards passing, 36 yards rushing, 105 total yards
Game 4 (at Bills, currently 4-1): 10 points, 240 yards passing, 135 yards rushing, 375 total yards
Game 5 (at Washington, currently 0-5): 7 points, 75 yards passing, 145 yards rushing, 220 total yards
Game 6 (vs. Giants, currently 2-4): 14 points, 161 yards passing, 52 yards rushing, 213 total yards
Total: 48 points, 966 yards passing, 442 yards rushing, 1,408 total yards, total opponents' record of 9-23, .281%)
Wouldn't it make more sense (maybe its a PITA to figure out) to show the Ravens' Opponents' record after 6 weeks, rather than the full season?
 

tims4wins

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Wouldn't it make more sense (maybe its a PITA to figure out) to show the Ravens' Opponents' record after 6 weeks, rather than the full season?
Maybe yes, maybe no. I am just trying to gauge how good the opponent is for context. I'm not showing the Pats opponent record at the time, I am updating it each week based on the season to date.
 

tims4wins

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#2 defense by DVOA all time through 6 games. #1 is the 1991 Saints, who forced 6 fumbles and had 5 picks in their 6th game against the Randall Cunningham Eagles.
 

InstaFace

MDLzera
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Sep 27, 2016
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#2 defense by DVOA all time through 6 games. #1 is the 1991 Saints, who forced 6 fumbles and had 5 picks in their 6th game against the Randall Cunningham Eagles.
Take a look farther down as they examine how awful Miami is - among the top-10 worst defenses ever through 5 games (MIA 2019 now 3rd) is NE 1992 (+28.4%) and... NE 2017 (+27.6%).

Hard to believe that two years ago, many of this same defensive personnel were on one of the statistically worst defenses of all time. Schatz writes:

Yes, that is the 2017 New England Patriots on the list of worst defenses ever through five games, just two years before a team with most of the same personnel would be the best defense ever tracked through five games. The Patriots that year allowed over 400 yards of offense in their first six games of the season, and only had five takeaways in their first five games. You might remember that as Stephon Gilmore's first year, and he seemed to have no idea what his assignments were in the early games leading to blatant missed coverages. Go back in time, here's an article about how bad things were. Here's another one. This is not an attempt to subject anyone to "Old Takes Exposed." It really was that bad. Here's what I wrote about it at the time. Suffice it to say, the Patriots straightened things out in the long run, although this same defense went on to allow 41 points and over 500 yards in a Super Bowl loss.
I'd say Gilmore turned it around, eventually.
 

tims4wins

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Take a look farther down as they examine how awful Miami is - among the top-10 worst defenses ever through 5 games (MIA 2019 now 3rd) is NE 1992 (+28.4%) and... NE 2017 (+27.6%).

Hard to believe that two years ago, many of this same defensive personnel were on one of the statistically worst defenses of all time. Schatz writes:



I'd say Gilmore turned it around, eventually.
Miami has both a top 10 worst defense, and a top 10 worst offense. It's crazy how bad they are.
 

McBride11

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Jul 15, 2005
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Take a look farther down as they examine how awful Miami is - among the top-10 worst defenses ever through 5 games (MIA 2019 now 3rd) is NE 1992 (+28.4%) and... NE 2017 (+27.6%).

Hard to believe that two years ago, many of this same defensive personnel were on one of the statistically worst defenses of all time. Schatz writes:



I'd say Gilmore turned it around, eventually.
Jamie Collins is the key!

im not going to dig thru old gamethreads (as i would certainly reveal myself) but plenty of SoSH said screw Gilmore and pay Butler. Oops. Tho Gilmore did get benched IIRC.

I wonder if the dramatic SG improvement is him learning the schemes and having a eureka moment or if BB and co changed some schemes to maximize SGs talents.

I think, BB had weak DBs for so long He may have adopted simpler schemes and or extra help from safeties to cover the big play that he so dreads. This weakened other areas. Now that Sg / dmc / jmac / and jcj are fully functioning to more independent schemes it is allowing the front 7 to tee off.
 

tims4wins

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Oh, I know. It’s just fun to quibble about .2 plays on average in the effort to find out just how fucking dominant they are, yeah? :)
Past teams have given up less points than they should have due to the offense, special teams, etc. This team has given up more points than they should have for the same reasons. It’s insane.
 

BaseballJones

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Oct 1, 2015
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I agree that the production was terrific. I didn't think he added a whole lot of insight, however, or explanation as to why what NE is doing is different than what other teams try to do. It seemed to me that what's making it work has been how good the Pats have been in coverage.
 

Deathofthebambino

Drive Carefully
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Apr 12, 2005
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Cross posted from the game thread:

The Pats defense, with 25 more fantasy points tonight, now have 156 on the season. Here are the only players with more:

Russell Wilson
Lamar Jackson
Deshaun Watson
Patrick Mahomes
Dak Prescott
Matt Ryan
Aaron Rodgers

FYI, 156 fantasy points for a defense would be like top 3 for a full season in a normal year. The next closest is the 9'ers at 96, then the Panthers at 77. The highest non-QB is Christian McCaffrey at 146.3 (non-PPR leagues).
 

Average Game James

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Posted in the game thread, but a couple fun stats...

Pats defense has allowed 34 points in 7 games. 14 teams have allowed more than 34 points in a single game (3 have done it twice).

Pats point differential: +175. Rest of AFC positive point differential teams: +175.
 

Hendu for Kutch

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Posted in the game thread, but a couple fun stats...

Pats defense has allowed 34 points in 7 games. 14 teams have allowed more than 34 points in a single game (3 have done it twice).

Pats point differential: +175. Rest of AFC positive point differential teams: +175.
You've shortchanged them...the D has only allowed 27 points. The D has scored 23 points, for a net of 4 points allowed this season.

If you include special teams it jumps to 34 points allowed and 37 points scored. Meaning that if you removed every Patriots possession this season and strictly matched up our D/ST against the opponent's offense, the Patriots win.
 

The_Powa_of_Seiji_Ozawa

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You've shortchanged them...the D has only allowed 27 points. The D has scored 23 points, for a net of 4 points allowed this season.

If you include special teams it jumps to 34 points allowed and 37 points scored. Meaning that if you removed every Patriots possession this season and strictly matched up our D/ST against the opponent's offense, the Patriots win.
There you have it, proof that Tom Brady is overrated....
 

Average Game James

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You've shortchanged them...the D has only allowed 27 points. The D has scored 23 points, for a net of 4 points allowed this season.

If you include special teams it jumps to 34 points allowed and 37 points scored. Meaning that if you removed every Patriots possession this season and strictly matched up our D/ST against the opponent's offense, the Patriots win.
Forgot to take out the fumble return by the Giants... 25 teams have allowed more than 27 points in a single game.