2019 Pats Defense: What Are We Witnessing?

Eddie Jurak

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So it counts opponents' drives that ended in a FG as a score for that opponent, but not the drive that ended in a Gunner muff recovered for a TD by the Jets?
Yes. Hard to attribute Gunner muffing a punt to the defense who forced that punt to begin with. I guess you could say the same about FGs, though. If we do that then the Pats defense has a point differential of 0.

A more sophisticted metric would incorporate field position and turnovers. One could credibly argue that the Pats defense has a positive differential because they are even on TD scored vs allowed and the Pats offense has punched in a couple of short-field TDs after turnovers forced by the defense.
 

InstaFace

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Yes. Hard to attribute Gunner muffing a punt to the defense who forced that punt to begin with. I guess you could say the same about FGs, though. If we do that then the Pats defense has a point differential of 0.

A more sophisticted metric would incorporate field position and turnovers. One could credibly argue that the Pats defense has a positive differential because they are even on TD scored vs allowed and the Pats offense has punched in a couple of short-field TDs after turnovers forced by the defense.
You can set it up and cut it a lot of different ways, and all of them come to the conclusion that this defense is an absolutely absurd, off-the-charts anomaly.

I ran through the events that might or might not be relevant to such a metric in Post 225, so if you want to craft something off that starting point, be my guest. Just trying to keep it apples to apples by putting the data somewhere.
 

Reverend

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Yes. Hard to attribute Gunner muffing a punt to the defense who forced that punt to begin with. I guess you could say the same about FGs, though. If we do that then the Pats defense has a point differential of 0.

A more sophisticted metric would incorporate field position and turnovers. One could credibly argue that the Pats defense has a positive differential because they are even on TD scored vs allowed and the Pats offense has punched in a couple of short-field TDs after turnovers forced by the defense.
I think you’re well on your way to inventing DVOA.
 

tims4wins

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Updating the Pats opposing records - Steelers and Jets won, Miami lost, opponents' win % jumps from .241 to .281

Ravens:
Game 1 (@ Steelers, finished 9-7): 0 points, 193 yards passing, 30 yards rushing, 223 total yards
Game 2 (vs. Jacksonville, finished 7-9): 36 points, 375 yards passing, 46 yards rushing, 421 total yards
Game 3 (@ Miami, finished 11-5): 19 points, 152 yards passing, 106 yards rushing, 258 total yards
Game 4 (vs Cincinnati, finished 4-12): 0 points, 90 yards passing, 4 yards rushing, 94 total yards
Game 5 (@ Cleveland, finished 3-13): 0 points, 207 yards passing, 23 yards rushing, 230 total yards
Game 6 (@ Jacksonville, finished 7-9): 10 points, 253 yards passing, 95 yards rushing, 348 total yards
Totals: 65 points, 1,270 yards passing, 304 yards rushing, 1,574 total yards, total opponents' record of 41-55, .427%)

Pats:
Game 1 (vs Steelers, currently 2-4): 3 points, 276 yards passing, 32 yards rushing, 308 total yards
Game 2 (@ Miami, currently 0-5): 0 points, 142 yards passing, 42 yards rushing, 184 total yards
Game 3 (vs Jets, currently 1-4): 14 points, 69 yards passing, 36 yards rushing, 105 total yards
Game 4 (at Bills, currently 4-1): 10 points, 240 yards passing, 135 yards rushing, 375 total yards
Game 5 (at Washington, currently 0-5): 7 points, 75 yards passing, 145 yards rushing, 220 total yards
Game 6 (vs. Giants, currently 2-4): 14 points, 161 yards passing, 52 yards rushing, 213 total yards
Total: 48 points, 966 yards passing, 442 yards rushing, 1,408 total yards, total opponents' record of 9-23, .281%)
 

Saints Rest

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Updating the Pats opposing records - Steelers and Jets won, Miami lost, opponents' win % jumps from .241 to .281

Ravens:
Game 1 (@ Steelers, finished 9-7): 0 points, 193 yards passing, 30 yards rushing, 223 total yards
Game 2 (vs. Jacksonville, finished 7-9): 36 points, 375 yards passing, 46 yards rushing, 421 total yards
Game 3 (@ Miami, finished 11-5): 19 points, 152 yards passing, 106 yards rushing, 258 total yards
Game 4 (vs Cincinnati, finished 4-12): 0 points, 90 yards passing, 4 yards rushing, 94 total yards
Game 5 (@ Cleveland, finished 3-13): 0 points, 207 yards passing, 23 yards rushing, 230 total yards
Game 6 (@ Jacksonville, finished 7-9): 10 points, 253 yards passing, 95 yards rushing, 348 total yards
Totals: 65 points, 1,270 yards passing, 304 yards rushing, 1,574 total yards, total opponents' record of 41-55, .427%)

Pats:
Game 1 (vs Steelers, currently 2-4): 3 points, 276 yards passing, 32 yards rushing, 308 total yards
Game 2 (@ Miami, currently 0-5): 0 points, 142 yards passing, 42 yards rushing, 184 total yards
Game 3 (vs Jets, currently 1-4): 14 points, 69 yards passing, 36 yards rushing, 105 total yards
Game 4 (at Bills, currently 4-1): 10 points, 240 yards passing, 135 yards rushing, 375 total yards
Game 5 (at Washington, currently 0-5): 7 points, 75 yards passing, 145 yards rushing, 220 total yards
Game 6 (vs. Giants, currently 2-4): 14 points, 161 yards passing, 52 yards rushing, 213 total yards
Total: 48 points, 966 yards passing, 442 yards rushing, 1,408 total yards, total opponents' record of 9-23, .281%)
Wouldn't it make more sense (maybe its a PITA to figure out) to show the Ravens' Opponents' record after 6 weeks, rather than the full season?
 

tims4wins

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Wouldn't it make more sense (maybe its a PITA to figure out) to show the Ravens' Opponents' record after 6 weeks, rather than the full season?
Maybe yes, maybe no. I am just trying to gauge how good the opponent is for context. I'm not showing the Pats opponent record at the time, I am updating it each week based on the season to date.
 

tims4wins

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#2 defense by DVOA all time through 6 games. #1 is the 1991 Saints, who forced 6 fumbles and had 5 picks in their 6th game against the Randall Cunningham Eagles.
 

InstaFace

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#2 defense by DVOA all time through 6 games. #1 is the 1991 Saints, who forced 6 fumbles and had 5 picks in their 6th game against the Randall Cunningham Eagles.
Take a look farther down as they examine how awful Miami is - among the top-10 worst defenses ever through 5 games (MIA 2019 now 3rd) is NE 1992 (+28.4%) and... NE 2017 (+27.6%).

Hard to believe that two years ago, many of this same defensive personnel were on one of the statistically worst defenses of all time. Schatz writes:

Yes, that is the 2017 New England Patriots on the list of worst defenses ever through five games, just two years before a team with most of the same personnel would be the best defense ever tracked through five games. The Patriots that year allowed over 400 yards of offense in their first six games of the season, and only had five takeaways in their first five games. You might remember that as Stephon Gilmore's first year, and he seemed to have no idea what his assignments were in the early games leading to blatant missed coverages. Go back in time, here's an article about how bad things were. Here's another one. This is not an attempt to subject anyone to "Old Takes Exposed." It really was that bad. Here's what I wrote about it at the time. Suffice it to say, the Patriots straightened things out in the long run, although this same defense went on to allow 41 points and over 500 yards in a Super Bowl loss.
I'd say Gilmore turned it around, eventually.
 

tims4wins

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Take a look farther down as they examine how awful Miami is - among the top-10 worst defenses ever through 5 games (MIA 2019 now 3rd) is NE 1992 (+28.4%) and... NE 2017 (+27.6%).

Hard to believe that two years ago, many of this same defensive personnel were on one of the statistically worst defenses of all time. Schatz writes:



I'd say Gilmore turned it around, eventually.
Miami has both a top 10 worst defense, and a top 10 worst offense. It's crazy how bad they are.
 

McBride11

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Take a look farther down as they examine how awful Miami is - among the top-10 worst defenses ever through 5 games (MIA 2019 now 3rd) is NE 1992 (+28.4%) and... NE 2017 (+27.6%).

Hard to believe that two years ago, many of this same defensive personnel were on one of the statistically worst defenses of all time. Schatz writes:



I'd say Gilmore turned it around, eventually.
Jamie Collins is the key!

im not going to dig thru old gamethreads (as i would certainly reveal myself) but plenty of SoSH said screw Gilmore and pay Butler. Oops. Tho Gilmore did get benched IIRC.

I wonder if the dramatic SG improvement is him learning the schemes and having a eureka moment or if BB and co changed some schemes to maximize SGs talents.

I think, BB had weak DBs for so long He may have adopted simpler schemes and or extra help from safeties to cover the big play that he so dreads. This weakened other areas. Now that Sg / dmc / jmac / and jcj are fully functioning to more independent schemes it is allowing the front 7 to tee off.
 

Reverend

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Pats are currently allowing 4.4 plays per drive. That is an insane number. The 2000 Ravens clocked in at 4.95.
That’s pretty amazing.

Although long touchdown plays will tend to depress this number a bit.
 

Reverend

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Correct, they’ve allowed 2 of those.

But, they’ve allowed a single TD on their own side of the field.
Oh, I know. It’s just fun to quibble about .2 plays on average in the effort to find out just how fucking dominant they are, yeah? :)
 

tims4wins

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Oh, I know. It’s just fun to quibble about .2 plays on average in the effort to find out just how fucking dominant they are, yeah? :)
Past teams have given up less points than they should have due to the offense, special teams, etc. This team has given up more points than they should have for the same reasons. It’s insane.
 

BaseballJones

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I agree that the production was terrific. I didn't think he added a whole lot of insight, however, or explanation as to why what NE is doing is different than what other teams try to do. It seemed to me that what's making it work has been how good the Pats have been in coverage.
 

Deathofthebambino

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Cross posted from the game thread:

The Pats defense, with 25 more fantasy points tonight, now have 156 on the season. Here are the only players with more:

Russell Wilson
Lamar Jackson
Deshaun Watson
Patrick Mahomes
Dak Prescott
Matt Ryan
Aaron Rodgers

FYI, 156 fantasy points for a defense would be like top 3 for a full season in a normal year. The next closest is the 9'ers at 96, then the Panthers at 77. The highest non-QB is Christian McCaffrey at 146.3 (non-PPR leagues).
 

Average Game James

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Posted in the game thread, but a couple fun stats...

Pats defense has allowed 34 points in 7 games. 14 teams have allowed more than 34 points in a single game (3 have done it twice).

Pats point differential: +175. Rest of AFC positive point differential teams: +175.
 

Hendu for Kutch

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Posted in the game thread, but a couple fun stats...

Pats defense has allowed 34 points in 7 games. 14 teams have allowed more than 34 points in a single game (3 have done it twice).

Pats point differential: +175. Rest of AFC positive point differential teams: +175.
You've shortchanged them...the D has only allowed 27 points. The D has scored 23 points, for a net of 4 points allowed this season.

If you include special teams it jumps to 34 points allowed and 37 points scored. Meaning that if you removed every Patriots possession this season and strictly matched up our D/ST against the opponent's offense, the Patriots win.
 

The_Powa_of_Seiji_Ozawa

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You've shortchanged them...the D has only allowed 27 points. The D has scored 23 points, for a net of 4 points allowed this season.

If you include special teams it jumps to 34 points allowed and 37 points scored. Meaning that if you removed every Patriots possession this season and strictly matched up our D/ST against the opponent's offense, the Patriots win.
There you have it, proof that Tom Brady is overrated....
 

Average Game James

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You've shortchanged them...the D has only allowed 27 points. The D has scored 23 points, for a net of 4 points allowed this season.

If you include special teams it jumps to 34 points allowed and 37 points scored. Meaning that if you removed every Patriots possession this season and strictly matched up our D/ST against the opponent's offense, the Patriots win.
Forgot to take out the fumble return by the Giants... 25 teams have allowed more than 27 points in a single game.
 

BaseballJones

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2 points, my friend.
Yep and Van Noy was a light game of footsie away from scoring on the fumble return. Down by contact only because it just so happened that the Jets’ OL’s foot unintentionally and luckily grazed Van Noy’s a moment before he got up.
 

BaseballJones

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Last week the Jets put up 24 points and amassed 382 total yards of offense (7.1 yards per play) against one of the NFC’s better teams, Dallas.

Darnold suggested that with all his weapons back their offense might be “unstoppable”. Pundits suggested that the Pats would be facing their toughest test of the year.

Last night the Jets scored 0 points and amassed 154 total yards of offense (2.9 yards per play).
 

tims4wins

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Opposing QBs now have a passer rating of 35.6. They'd be better off spiking it every play than dropping back and passing.
 

Mugsy's Jock

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Great analysis from The Ringer’s Danny Heifetz (whose work I really enjoy):
For those who think the Patriots’ early schedule is a major factor in their early-season success, know that the 1920 Buffalo All-Americans also played some suspect competition by playing West Buffalo, All Buffalo, McKeesport, Toledo, Rochester, All Tonawanda, and Columbus to start their season.
https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2019/10/22/20926397/the-patriots-defense-is-doing-things-weve-never-seen-before
 

tims4wins

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Updating the Pats opposing records - Steelers and Jets won, Miami lost, opponents' win % jumps from .241 to .281

Ravens:
Game 1 (@ Steelers, finished 9-7): 0 points, 193 yards passing, 30 yards rushing, 223 total yards
Game 2 (vs. Jacksonville, finished 7-9): 36 points, 375 yards passing, 46 yards rushing, 421 total yards
Game 3 (@ Miami, finished 11-5): 19 points, 152 yards passing, 106 yards rushing, 258 total yards
Game 4 (vs Cincinnati, finished 4-12): 0 points, 90 yards passing, 4 yards rushing, 94 total yards
Game 5 (@ Cleveland, finished 3-13): 0 points, 207 yards passing, 23 yards rushing, 230 total yards
Game 6 (@ Jacksonville, finished 7-9): 10 points, 253 yards passing, 95 yards rushing, 348 total yards
Totals: 65 points, 1,270 yards passing, 304 yards rushing, 1,574 total yards, total opponents' record of 41-55, .427%)

Pats:
Game 1 (vs Steelers, currently 2-4): 3 points, 276 yards passing, 32 yards rushing, 308 total yards
Game 2 (@ Miami, currently 0-5): 0 points, 142 yards passing, 42 yards rushing, 184 total yards
Game 3 (vs Jets, currently 1-4): 14 points, 69 yards passing, 36 yards rushing, 105 total yards
Game 4 (at Bills, currently 4-1): 10 points, 240 yards passing, 135 yards rushing, 375 total yards
Game 5 (at Washington, currently 0-5): 7 points, 75 yards passing, 145 yards rushing, 220 total yards
Game 6 (vs. Giants, currently 2-4): 14 points, 161 yards passing, 52 yards rushing, 213 total yards
Total: 48 points, 966 yards passing, 442 yards rushing, 1,408 total yards, total opponents' record of 9-23, .281%)
Ravens tracker update

Ravens:
Game 1 (@ Steelers, finished 9-7): 0 points, 193 yards passing, 30 yards rushing, 223 total yards
Game 2 (vs. Jacksonville, finished 7-9): 36 points, 375 yards passing, 46 yards rushing, 421 total yards
Game 3 (@ Miami, finished 11-5): 19 points, 152 yards passing, 106 yards rushing, 258 total yards
Game 4 (vs Cincinnati, finished 4-12): 0 points, 90 yards passing, 4 yards rushing, 94 total yards
Game 5 (@ Cleveland, finished 3-13): 0 points, 207 yards passing, 23 yards rushing, 230 total yards
Game 6 (@ Jacksonville, finished 7-9): 10 points, 253 yards passing, 95 yards rushing, 348 total yards
Game 7 (@ Washington, finished 8-8): 10 points, 145 yards passing, 101 yards rushing, 246 total yards)
Totals: 75 points, 1,415 yards passing, 405 yards rushing, 1,820 total yards, total opponents' record of 49-63, .438%)

Pats:
Game 1 (vs Steelers, currently 2-4): 3 points, 276 yards passing, 32 yards rushing, 308 total yards
Game 2 (@ Miami, currently 0-6): 0 points, 142 yards passing, 42 yards rushing, 184 total yards
Game 3 (vs Jets, currently 1-5): 14 points, 69 yards passing, 36 yards rushing, 105 total yards
Game 4 (@ Bills, currently 5-1): 10 points, 240 yards passing, 135 yards rushing, 375 total yards
Game 5 (@ Washington, currently 1-6): 7 points, 75 yards passing, 145 yards rushing, 220 total yards
Game 6 (vs. Giants, currently 2-5): 14 points, 161 yards passing, 52 yards rushing, 213 total yards
Game 7 (@ Jets, currently 1-5): 0 points, 73 yards passing, 81 yards rushing, 154 total yards
Total: 48 points, 1,039 yards passing, 523 yards rushing, 1,562 total yards, total opponents' record of 12-32, .273%)
 

tims4wins

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Red zone update:

The Giants didn't run a play in the red zone. That makes 3 of 6 games where the Pats haven't allowed a single play inside the red zone.

Total plays inside the red zone by game:
Washington: 0
Buffalo: 9
NYJ: 0
Miami: 1
Pittsburgh: 5

15 total plays inside the red zone.

Total breakdown:

2-6 passing, 9 yards, 1 INT, 2.8 rating, 1 sack, 0 yards lost
8 carries for 19 yards, 1 TD, 2.38 YPC
Total: 15 plays, 28 yards (1.87 YPP), 1 TD, 1 INT
Red zone update:

The Jets ran a shocking 6 plays in the red zone. But they were 0-5 passing with 2 INT, and 1 carry for 0 yards. GJGE.

Jets: 6
Washington: 0
Buffalo: 9
NYJ: 0
Miami: 1
Pittsburgh: 5

21 total plays inside the red zone.

Total breakdown:

2-11 passing, 9 yards, 3 INT, 0.0 rating, 1 sack, 0 yards lost (so Pats have more catches than their opponents inside the red zone)
9 carries for 19 yards, 1 TD, 2.11 YPC
Total: 21 plays, 28 yards (1.33 YPP), 1 TD, 3 INT
 

tims4wins

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Plus 50 update

The Pats have only allowed 106 plays on their side of the field in 6 games (15.1 per game):

QBs are 21-73 (28.8% - not a misprint!) for 211 yards, 10 picks, and 9 sacks for -57 yards. Passer rating of 0.0. As in zero. Zilch. ZERO.
RBs have 24 carries for 61 yards (2.54 YPC) and 1 TD
Total: 106 plays for 215 yards, 2.03 YPP (!!!)

Nearly as many sacks + picks (19) as completions (21)
 

tims4wins

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53 plays on 13 drives last night = 4.07 yards per drive, thus improving on their already historic number. Also, 11.8 yards per drive, also improving on their already historic number. Down to 0.31 points per drive.
 

Ralphwiggum

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BaseballJones

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If Brady hadn’t thrown that pick in the buffalo end zone, the Pats would have gone up 20-0, and likely would have won by 30 or more. Obviously it didn’t happen. But aside from that game, they’ve completely blown EVERYONE out. And that should have been a blowout too.
 

jodyreeddudley78

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I think what is most impressive about this stretch so far is the fact that you have to adjust for the scoring environment. It’s kind of crazy.

In 1985, offenses averaged 329.4 yards, 21 points, and 5 yards per play.

In 2019, offenses are averaging 351.2 yards, 22.5 points, and 5.6 yards per play.

2019 Pats D
223.14 yards, 6.86 points, and 4 yards per play.

It’s only seven games, competition, yada, yada, yada... but still.
 

BaseballJones

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I think what is most impressive about this stretch so far is the fact that you have to adjust for the scoring environment. It’s kind of crazy.

In 1985, offenses averaged 329.4 yards, 21 points, and 5 yards per play.

In 2019, offenses are averaging 351.2 yards, 22.5 points, and 5.6 yards per play.

2019 Pats D
223.14 yards, 6.86 points, and 4 yards per play.

It’s only seven games, competition, yada, yada, yada... but still.
The Pats' DEFENSE has only allowed 34 points all season (yes, technically field goals are against special teams but I'm talking about the two TDs the Jets scored in the Foxboro game: the muffed punt in the end zone and the Stidham pick-six). That's 4.86 points per game allowed by the defense.
 

tims4wins

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The Pats' DEFENSE has only allowed 34 points all season (yes, technically field goals are against special teams but I'm talking about the two TDs the Jets scored in the Foxboro game: the muffed punt in the end zone and the Stidham pick-six). That's 4.86 points per game allowed by the defense.
Giants also scored 7 on the fumble return. It's 27 points over 7 games. 3.86 PPG.

0.31 points per drive allowed. So if you get 10 drives, you'll get a field goal!
 

BaseballJones

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Pitt: 24.0 ppg against everyone else, 3 against NE
Mia: 10.6 ppg against everyone else, 0 against NE
NYJ: 9.8 ppg against everyone else, 0 against NE (14 scored by NYJ defense and special teams)
Buf: 22.2 ppg against everyone else, 10 against NE
Was: 11.9 ppg against everyone else, 7 against NE
NYG: 19.7 ppg against everyone else, 7 against NE (7 scored by NYG defense)

So NE has held these teams to the following point totals compared to how these teams scored against non-NE foes:
Pitt: -21
Mia: -10.6
NYJ: -9.8
Buf: -12.1
Was: -4.9
NYG: -12.7

So yes, these offenses aren't good. But the Pats are simply not letting them do ANYTHING, when at least they're doing SOMETHING against their non-NE opponents.

And again, the three TDs the Pats' D has given up this year:

- Buffalo scored on 4th and 1 when they *BARELY* reached the ball over the goal line (by what, an inch or two?) before it got knocked out of the guy's hands. So that's two inches away from NOT being a TD.

- Washington scored on a 65-yard end-around where McCourty (one of the surest tacklers in the league) didn't wrap up and three other Patriots stood there watching, fully expecting McCourty (who makes that play 19 out of 20 times) to make the tackle.

- NYG scored on a 64-yard bomb down the sideline when the Pats' CB (Jones) actually deflected it, but it happened to go right into the hands of Tate, who juggled it running full stride and was able to bring it in.

I mean, that is IT.