My lottery after the college season:
Tier 2- All Star Potential
2. Ja
3. Culver
4. Barrett (no strong preference between him and Culver)
I actually have Culver #2 on my board. I think he's grown since his last measurements in high school and is closer to 6'7", but with a smaller guard's game still. I like his upside as the prototype of what you want in guys these days, ball skills, shooting, athleticism, length, and the ability to handle the switch everything defense.
Tier 3- Good Starters w/outside shot at All-Star
5. Jaxson Hayes
6. Brandon Clarke (destined to be BPM/RPM darling but little shot at All-Star)
7. Coby White
White's a home run swing, he's one of the guys from this pool that has the ability to become a top 15 player once he fills out. I like Clarke, I think he's the guy everyone was hoping Ty Thomas would be. He's a high floor/low ceiling kind of guy. But if he can learn to spot shoot corner threes his defense is going to make him an all star.
Tier 4
8. Kevin Porter Jr. (high ceiling, very low floor. Maybe I should have Darius Garland here too)
9. De'Andre Hunter (opposite of above)
10. Grant Williams (bigger-playing version of Jae Crowder? Poor-man's Draymond? I dunno, but I love watching this kid. He can be an asset on offense as a screener/popper for a good PnR guard, and he's a great passer. Should probably switch him and Kevin Porter Jr.)
I wish Porter hadn't spent the year injured or suspended so that I could get a better feel for him. He's got serious tools. And even more serious questions about the space between his ears. Getting kicked off of a USC sports team for behavioral issues raises major red flags. Doesn't that normally require attempted murder and/or running a major drug ring?
I
love De'Andre Hunter. I agree in general terms with the high floor/low ceiling comment. Except that I think that ceiling is a little higher than you do. (He's clearly a 3&D guy at the next level, but he's going to be
really good at it).
Tier 5
11. Cam Reddish (Jaylen Brown makes the case for gambling on a blue chip prospect with elite physical tools who was terrible in college nonetheless. Should probably have him higher based on tools and position alone, but man was he unimpressive)
12. PJ Washington (Montrezl Harrell garbageman-plus type)
13. Jontay Porter (re-tearing an ACL can't be good, but I have not idea just how bad the long-term prognosis is. Maybe swap Bol Bol here if his foot injury is any less scary)
14. Romeo Langford
You missed Keldon Johnson, Nassir Little and Nickeil Alexander-Walker in this section. Little is, basically, the 6'6" Marcus Smart. For better and worse. And like Marcus he might be on his second contract before the jumper really works. But a bigger/longer Marcus is a really good result from a mid first round pick. Johnson plays hard and shoots, which has a lot of value now. He reminds a little of Klay Thompson, though I don't think it's likely that he ever hits that upside.
NAW not only has the greatest name acronym in this pool, but has real potential as a starting guard in the NBA. There are questions about how close he is to his listed 6'5", but he has the physical tools to guard the one spot and a combo guard's game. Avery Bradley he's not. But in a league where there are so many guys with combo guard games I don't think his lack of pure point guard skills is an issue. Here in Boston with Smart, Hayward, and Horford, NAW would be just fine as a long term Irving replacement (if/when Irving and Durant sign with another team). He's near the top of my wish list for the 12-14 pick.
Reddish is a guy that could go anywhere from 4-15 since he's easy to talk yourself into or out of. He spent the entire year playing at half speed. But was it because of a desire to stay healthy for the draft or does he just not give a damn? He's got the talent to be a top 20 guy if he busts ass.
He's probably got a better chance of hitting playing someplace like Boston where he's going to have to bust ass to get on the floor than someplace like Atlanta where they're going to hand him a starting spot regardless. If Boston gets stuck with #9 and Reddish floats I wouldn't mind the Celtics taking the home run swing because athletic 6'8" guys with that sort of length just don't grow on trees.
Thybulle strikes me as someone capable of being the player people want Ojeleye to be. Also, his FT shooting leaves cause for real optimism about his long term prospects as a shooter. He’s pretty much at the top of my list for the non lottery picks besides guys who might fall.
I think a better comparison would be Andre Roberson or Thabo Sefalosha. You sort of hope that he can learn to shoot corner treys because the defense is otherwise outstanding and can carry a lot of offensive suckage.