2019 Draft Megathread

DrewDawg

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I don't know, he's so good-looking, he would have found his way in front of a TV camera one way or another.

If Zion did blow off New Orleans, at least maybe that would hasten the move of that franchise to somewhere that can actually support NBA basketball and be a positive contributor to the league. New Orleans has been one NBA shitshow after another.
Pelicans had higher percentage of seats filled this year than: Pacers, Clippers, Nets, Suns, Pistons and a few others.
 

Deathofthebambino

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Apr 12, 2005
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Pelicans had higher percentage of seats filled this year than: Pacers, Clippers, Nets, Suns, Pistons and a few others.
They also reportedly sold 2,000 season tix within 24 hours of the ping pong balls. Zion isn't going anywhere, or a lot of folks are going to be looking for refunds.
 

Captaincoop

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Pelicans had higher percentage of seats filled this year than: Pacers, Clippers, Nets, Suns, Pistons and a few others.
That tells us very little about the financial viability of the franchise.

Tell me about their ticket prices and distribution. Corporate sales. Local TV contract. Etc. For example, the Pelicans get $10m per year from their local TV deal. The Pistons get over $30m. Have to sell a lot of tickets to make up that difference. And that doesn't get into the title sponsorship (Smoothie King!) or premium tickets.

There is not enough wealth in New Orleans to support an NBA team properly. The league could use that franchise in Seattle or San Diego or somewhere similar.
 
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BigSoxFan

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May 31, 2007
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That tells us very little about the financial viability of the franchise.

Tell me about their ticket prices and distribution. Corporate sales. Local TV contract. Etc. For example, the Pelicans get $10m per year from their local TV deal. The Pistons get over $30m. Have to sell a lot of tickets to make up that difference. And that doesn't get into the title sponsorship (Smoothie King!) or premium tickets.

There is not enough wealth in New Orleans to support an NBA team properly. The league could use that franchise in Seattle or San Diego or somewhere similar.
That team should absolutely be in Seattle. It’s an absolute travesty that the Sonics moved. Way too good of a sports city to be basketball-less.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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That tells us very little about the financial viability of the franchise.

Tell me about their ticket prices and distribution. Corporate sales. Local TV contract. Etc. For example, the Pelicans get $10m per year from their local TV deal. The Pistons get over $30m. Have to sell a lot of tickets to make up that difference. And that doesn't get into the title sponsorship (Smoothie King!) or premium tickets.

There is not enough wealth in New Orleans to support an NBA team properly. The league could use that franchise in Seattle or San Diego or somewhere similar.
This is a great point since all NBA teams today price their tickets based off the demand of each individual game. It's why I had to pay $400+ for 2 balcony seats at the Garden this year and $30 for 2 seats in the same location a few years ago for a Bobcats game when I lived in Charlotte.
 

DannyDarwinism

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He or Alexander-Walker would be my choice at #14. The biggest question, for which I haven't found a good answer yet (and I have looked), is what in the name of all that's unholy do you need to do to get kicked off a USC athletic team? But Porter has some serious Harden upside, and he's one guy I could absolutely see hitting top 10 status that's going to float.

If Boston could land Porter and Walker, there'd be real reason for optimism even if they get screwed by Kyexit and Browexit (assuming they make that bet).
I do like NAW, but man, KPJ keeps falling further and further in the mocks I've seen and while I'm usually pretty averse to guys with the ubiquitous "character red-flags" designation, KPJ's upside is as high as anyone in this draft not named Zion. The skills and athleticism are there for a go-to NBA scorer. If you're a GM of a team with a stable environment that can help him grow as a decision maker, I think that's worth rolling the dice on unless you have intel saying he's completely uncoachable. There's always a chance he's just a hard-headed kid who will mature as he gets older and is provided more structure, and if that's the case, you've got an All-Star on your team.

Brandon Clarke measured out at a 6'8 wingspan. I knew he had gator arms, but oof, that's bad. On the flip side, his vert and agility numbers measured out as elite.

Some buzz so far about Nas Little (particularly his shooting) and Luka Samanic. I think this is gonna be one of those drafts (more so than typical) that really flattens out after the top 3, where we’ll look back with the benefit of hindsight and wonder how guys fell/rose.
 

BigSoxFan

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I do like NAW, but man, KPJ keeps falling further and further in the mocks I've seen and while I'm usually pretty averse to guys with the ubiquitous "character red-flags" designation, KPJ's upside is as high as anyone in this draft not named Zion. The skills and athleticism are there for a go-to NBA scorer. If you're a GM of a team with a stable environment that can help him grow as a decision maker, I think that's worth rolling the dice on unless you have intel saying he's completely uncoachable. There's always a chance he's just a hard-headed kid who will mature as he gets older and is provided more structure, and if that's the case, you've got an All-Star on your team.

Brandon Clarke measured out at a 6'8 wingspan. I knew he had gator arms, but oof, that's bad. On the flip side, his vert and agility numbers measured out as elite.

Some buzz so far about Nas Little (particularly his shooting) and Luka Samanic. I think this is gonna be one of those drafts (more so than typical) that really flattens out after the top 3, where we’ll look back with the benefit of hindsight and wonder how guys fell/rose.
Agree on Porter. I really hope his stock continues to fall. Getting him at #20 would be awesome if we keep the pick.
 

EL Jeffe

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Fran Fraschilla is a pretty good twitter follow and is particularly plugged in to the international prospects. Interesting that he doesn't have Porter in his Top 15, but he does have my other favorite in Bitadze. He's really high on Bruno Fernando, who I also really like. Fernando gives me Bam Adebayo vibes, and I was a big Bam fan two years ago.


Tweet's text: If you made me do an @NBADraft Top 10 List, it would look like this: 1. Zion 2.Ja Morant 3. RJ Barrett 4. D. Garland 5. C. White 6.R. Hachimura 7. J. Hayes 8. D. Hunter 9. J. Culver 10. C. Reddish. Bitadze, Fernando, Kabengele, Little, Doumbouya would be in mix, too.
 

Big John

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I am becoming a big fan of Dylan Windler. He's a left handed sniper with an extremely high BBIQ (Indiana kid) who also rebounds. They say he lacks "athleticism" and doesn't defend, but he's faster than people give him credit for. He has a very quick release on his jumper, like Korver, and he shoots from NBA range.

He's going to be better than quite a few guys taken ahead of him. Windler will also immediately supplant Stephen Curry as the best golfer in the NBA.
 

nighthob

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I do like NAW, but man, KPJ keeps falling further and further in the mocks I've seen and while I'm usually pretty averse to guys with the ubiquitous "character red-flags" designation, KPJ's upside is as high as anyone in this draft not named Zion. The skills and athleticism are there for a go-to NBA scorer. If you're a GM of a team with a stable environment that can help him grow as a decision maker, I think that's worth rolling the dice on unless you have intel saying he's completely uncoachable. There's always a chance he's just a hard-headed kid who will mature as he gets older and is provided more structure, and if that's the case, you've got an All-Star on your team.
Before the season I had this as a four man pool with Reddish and Porter being the 3/4 guys after Williamson and Barrett. But both guys are now officially in the talented headcase region and complete wildcards. My opinion of them is that if they end up on young teams, they probably wash out. But if they end up on strong veteran teams, they have the ability to hit that all star.

Put another way, they're the two guys that really benefit from the drop. If Boston grabbed Porter at #14 I would be happy with it, because with guys like Smart, Hayward, and Horford, they can mitigate the knucklehead factor. And Porter is a human highlight reel when he's focused.
 

clemcooper

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Before the season I had this as a four man pool with Reddish and Porter being the 3/4 guys after Williamson and Barrett. But both guys are now officially in the talented headcase region and complete wildcards.
Is Cam Reddish considered a headcase? Not disputing it, just surprised - this is the first I've heard anything about potential character issues.
 

nighthob

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Is Cam Reddish considered a headcase? Not disputing it, just surprised - this is the first I've heard anything about potential character issues.
There's more to being a headcase than character issues. There's having Cam Reddish's toolbox and being completely unable to get untracked at the college level too. Now part of that might be that Duke used him as a floor spacer and that's really not his game. But when you have that length and athleticism combined with those skills, you're supposed to dominate the lesser competition.
 

clemcooper

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There's more to being a headcase than character issues. There's having Cam Reddish's toolbox and being completely unable to get untracked at the college level too. Now part of that might be that Duke used him as a floor spacer and that's really not his game. But when you have that length and athleticism combined with those skills, you're supposed to dominate the lesser competition.
Gotcha. Thought you were suggesting Reddish was considered to be a headcase of the KPJ variety, but I see what you mean now.
 

HomeRunBaker

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There's more to being a headcase than character issues. There's having Cam Reddish's toolbox and being completely unable to get untracked at the college level too. Now part of that might be that Duke used him as a floor spacer and that's really not his game. But when you have that length and athleticism combined with those skills, you're supposed to dominate the lesser competition.
This is the identical response I was thinking. Well said.
 

Big John

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Dec 9, 2016
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Doumbouya dropped 34 in 28 minutes (with 9 rebounds, 5-7 from three point range) last night playing for Limoges in the French Pro A league. The Celtics can probably forget about him at #14 unless they can move up.

 

nighthob

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Yeah, if he’s there at #22, fine. He tries hard and shoots well. At 22 you sort of expect guys like that.
 

Kliq

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Doumbouya dropped 34 in 28 minutes (with 9 rebounds, 5-7 from three point range) last night playing for Limoges in the French Pro A league. The Celtics can probably forget about him at #14 unless they can move up.

Whoever drafts him should also get that PA announcer he yells "DOOOUUUMMMMBOUYA!" after every basket.
 

Sam Ray Not

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Yeah, if he’s there at #22, fine. He tries hard and shoots well. At 22 you sort of expect guys like that.
Some #22 picks who have made it in the NBA: Jarrett Allen, Kenneth Faried, Jared Dudley, Jarrett Jack, Chris Mills, Reggie Lewis, Scott Skiles, Norm Nixon. (What's up with all the Jarretts/Jareds?)

On the flipside: Fab Melo...
 

Carmine Hose

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Here's the last 5 years at 14, 20, 22 (noting it's unlikely Celts make all these picks)

2018

14 - Michael Porter, Jr.
20 - Josh Okogie
22 - Chandler Hutchison

Notable post 22 - Landry Shamet

2017

14 - Bam Adebayo
20 - Harry Giles
22 - Jarrett Allen

Notable post 22 - Kyle Kuzma

2016

14 - Denzel Valentine
20 - Caris LeVert
22 - Malachi Richardson

Notable post 22 - Pascal Siakam, Malcolm Brogdon,

2015

14 - Cameron Payne
20 - Delon Wright
22 - Bobby Portis

Notable post 22 - Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Montezl Harrell,

2014

14 - T.J. Warren
20 - Bruno Caboclo
22 - Jordan Adams

Notable post 22 - Rodney Hood, Clint Capela, Nikola Jokic, Jordan Clarkson
 

Lazy vs Crazy

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International combine was cancelled due to logistical issues. If we keep any of our picks, this could help us. Last I knew, our European scouting was really good.
 

chilidawg

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Jan 22, 2015
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Here's the last 5 years at 14, 20, 22 (noting it's unlikely Celts make all these picks)

2018

14 - Michael Porter, Jr.
20 - Josh Okogie
22 - Chandler Hutchison

Notable post 22 - Landry Shamet

2017

14 - Bam Adebayo
20 - Harry Giles
22 - Jarrett Allen

Notable post 22 - Kyle Kuzma

2016

14 - Denzel Valentine
20 - Caris LeVert
22 - Malachi Richardson

Notable post 22 - Pascal Siakam, Malcolm Brogdon,

2015

14 - Cameron Payne
20 - Delon Wright
22 - Bobby Portis

Notable post 22 - Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Montezl Harrell,

2014

14 - T.J. Warren
20 - Bruno Caboclo
22 - Jordan Adams

Notable post 22 - Rodney Hood, Clint Capela, Nikola Jokic, Jordan Clarkson
So can we conclude from this short list that the mid/late first round picks are a total crapshoot, and that 14 has not much more value than 22?
 

moondog80

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Sep 20, 2005
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So can we conclude from this short list that the mid/late first round picks are a total crapshoot, and that 14 has not much more value than 22?
I would never conclude anything from such a short list, but I think that is nonetheless true.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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So can we conclude from this short list that the mid/late first round picks are a total crapshoot, and that 14 has not much more value than 22?
It's about choices and team needs/fits so not sure you can draw any conclusion based on this limited information. Teams certalinly value fliers and 4-year players differently when having the 14th pick compared to the 22nd.
 

chilidawg

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Hachimura, Goga, Ty Jerome would be a nice haul. I'd take Porter @ 22 but don't think he'll be there.
 

nighthob

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They should probably grab him at 14 if they think the clubhouse can contain him (and if Irving’s gone it probably can). I like Hachimura, but I think his upside is NBA starter. Same with Bitadze, although I will confess to limited video with Goga.
 

Big John

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Dec 9, 2016
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I haven't watched Goga much either, but generally speaking, International players have been undervalued in the NBA draft. At various times the Celtics could have drafted Ginobili, Turkoglu, Parker, Diaw, Marc Gasol, Antetokounmpo and Jokic. Sure, there are International players who were busts (e.g. Bender, Milicic, Tskitishvilli) and Yabusele seems headed in that direction. But there have been a significant number of home runs in the second round with International players, most recently with Jokic.
 
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Big John

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Dec 9, 2016
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I liked Kurucs last year and I like Luka Samanic this year. Samanic was arguably one of the best players at the combine. and has a similar skill set to Kurucs, although Samanic is taller.
He'll likely go somewhere between 25 and 40, so he won't be a Celtic barring some major pick reshuffling. But I think he'll be an excellent selection for some team.
 

BigMike

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I haven't watched Goga much either, but generally speaking, International players have been undervalued in the NBA draft. At various times the Celtics could have drafted Ginobili, Turkoglu, Parker, Diaw, Marc Gasol, Antetokounmpo and Jokic. Sure, there are International players who were busts (e.g. Bender, Milicic, Tskitishvilli) and Yabusele seems headed in that direction. But there have been a significant number of home runs in the second round with International players, most recently with Jokic.
It's funny because International players are such a lottery pick. Yu list 7 huge wins, and I am sure there are more, but there have also probably been around 150 or more drafted in the last decade

But I watched that CBS sportsline mock draft, and there were a few back of the lottery picks that as they were being discussed I'm thinking to myself, these guys are likely bottom tier starters or more like 7th/8th guys in the rotatioo at best. And maybe if you are the Celtics and have 3 picks it makes sense to get one of those guys who seems like a sure thing solid NBA player. But for the most part I want the swing for the fences picks, especially in the lottery. Yeah they are boom/bust guys, and lots will bust, but I'm looking to get that guy who has a chance to be a good starter or more
 

chilidawg

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But I watched that CBS sportsline mock draft, and there were a few back of the lottery picks that as they were being discussed I'm thinking to myself, these guys are likely bottom tier starters or more like 7th/8th guys in the rotatioo at best. And maybe if you are the Celtics and have 3 picks it makes sense to get one of those guys who seems like a sure thing solid NBA player. But for the most part I want the swing for the fences picks, especially in the lottery. Yeah they are boom/bust guys, and lots will bust, but I'm looking to get that guy who has a chance to be a good starter or more
With 3 picks it seems as though they can do both, go for a boom/bust guy (Porter, Bol, Goga) at 14 and then get a couple guys with better floors at 20 and 22 (Jerome, Washington, Hachimura, Johnson, Okeke)
 
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Big John

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Aran Smith (NBAdraft.net) just updated his mock and has the Celtics taking Florida State's Mfiondu Kabengele with #14 after Miami grabs Doumbouya at #13. He's projecting Goga at #19, Samanic at #27, Thybulle at #29 and Windler at #30.

He has the three Kentucky guys slotted at 20-22, with the Celtics taking Johnson and Washington and OKC taking Herro. I guess he doesn't believe the rumors that Thybulle has a promise, unless it's from the Spurs.

He's still got Naz Reid at #26 but that is unlikely to happen. I really like Reid's skills and size but he showed up at the combine completely out of shape (14% body fat, next worst was 9.8%) and I think he will be lucky to make the top 45.
 

DannyDarwinism

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Yeah, Naz Reid is a very long shot to have an NBA career. Bigs who are horrible at defense and passing just don’t make it in the league, even when they aren’t on the Oliver Miller trajectory. Hell Bruno Fernando is a solid passer and is chiseled like a Greek god and he’s still projected as a late first due to shaky defense that’s still miles better than Reid’s.

Kabengele is getting some momentum, though I like his teammate, Lowell’s Own Terrence Mann, as a second rounder.

Samanic, Nic Claxton and Talen Horton-Tucker are the two guys I’ve moved up on my want list, both probably just outside the lottery for me, based on upside. THT needs to drop some weight, but dudes that strong with that much finishing finesse are rare. Oh, and Charles Matthews, more of a floor-play as a late first, but that dude can flat out defend.
 

Big John

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Yeah, Naz Reid is a very long shot to have an NBA career. Bigs who are horrible at defense and passing just don’t make it in the league, even when they aren’t on the Oliver Miller trajectory.
Well, Reid was probably the best player in the 2018 McDonald's game, so the NBA potential is there. But he needs to find a decent conditioning coach.

In addition to some game film, I watched Samanic's interview at the combine. He's only 19, but he appears to have his head on straight.
 

tims4wins

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Some whispers going around (which don't sound too serious yet) that the Knicks might consider trading #3 to the Hawks for #8 and #10. Who would that trade favor, do you think?
Man I would rather have #3, but I am a believer in Barrett. He may not ever be Harden, but he should be a pretty darn good player.
 

DannyDarwinism

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Well, Reid was probably the best player in the 2018 McDonald's game, so the NBA potential is there. But he needs to find a decent conditioning coach.
Yeah, he was good in that game where nobody even pretends to have to play defense, then he went to the SEC and was terrible. He has a ton of work to do just to make it so the All-American game is the primary reason people associate his name with McDonalds.
 

BigSoxFan

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Man I would rather have #3, but I am a believer in Barrett. He may not ever be Harden, but he should be a pretty darn good player.
Same here. Doesn’t make sense to me unless you’re really bearish on Barrett or it’s part of some larger play.
 

Big John

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There are so many impact players potentially on the move this July that it is impossible to tell who is drafting for whom.