2019-20 Yankees Offseason Discussion

[jon abbey]

Betances is guaranteed a $3M buyout even if he takes the player optout, so his salary is more like $10.5M for 2020 (plus maybe there are incentive clauses too?).

That is a lot of talent but the only asset that might hurt losing is Deivi (or Gil).

Medina is the SP prospect I would be scared to give up, a ton of risk obviously with him but also so so much potential upside. Dominguez is the only prospect who I think is totally off the table for me in any deal, but I would hate to see Medina go.

 

[TheDivision]

Betances is guaranteed a $3M buyout even if he takes the player optout, so his salary is more like $10.5M for 2020 (plus maybe there are incentive clauses too?).



Medina is the SP prospect I would be scared to give up, a ton of risk obviously with him but also so so much potential upside. Dominguez is the only prospect who I think is totally off the table for me in any deal, but I would hate to see Medina go.

Good for him, that is closer money, and a big difference from 7.5 million.

 

[TheDivision]

(plus maybe there are incentive clauses too?)

One incentive that is being reported is $3 million if he appears in 70 games. I’m not sure how he’ll be utilized but 70 games are a lot and by comparison, Chapman appeared in 60, Britton in 66, Kahnle in 72, and Ottavino in 73.

Perhaps it’s escalating incentives and something like 60 games gets him $2 million. Source ESPN

 

[Murderer's Crow]

Betances is guaranteed a $3M buyout even if he takes the player optout, so his salary is more like $10.5M for 2020 (plus maybe there are incentive clauses too?).



Medina is the SP prospect I would be scared to give up, a ton of risk obviously with him but also so so much potential upside. Dominguez is the only prospect who I think is totally off the table for me in any deal, but I would hate to see Medina go.

Just curious but considering how Deivi's star has been growing, why are you more willing to give him up in a package?

 

[jon abbey]

Just curious but considering how Deivi's star has been growing, why are you more willing to give him up in a package?

I mean, I don't know much really, but some people think Deivi will end up in the bullpen (of course some people thought that about Severino too), and with Medina, I can't get over the fact that Baseball America has rated Medina with both the best fastball and the best curve in the entire system the past two seasons. They were both born in May 1999 (so young!) and Deivi being two levels higher already says something too, but it seems to me like Medina has a higher ceiling as well as a much lower floor.

 

[jon abbey]

Also they have to trade pitching, they can't keep all of these guys on the 40 man all season. They have 24 pitchers on the 40 man right now, not counting the suspended German. I would love to see Deivi get a chance for NY, but Hader puts a piece in place for the next 4 seasons, and a much younger piece than the rest of those back end relievers.

 

[Murderer's Crow]

Also they have to trade pitching, they can't keep all of these guys on the 40 man all season. They have 24 pitchers on the 40 man right now, not counting the suspended German. I would love to see Deivi get a chance for NY, but Hader puts a piece in place for the next 4 seasons, and a much younger piece than the rest of those back end relievers.

Well, trading a pitcher for a pitcher doesn't necessarily solve the 40 man issue, but point taken.

 

[jon abbey]

My proposal had Holder going too as part of the 4 for 1, but it's true that it's more of a short term fix. Happ will still probably be dealt also before pitchers and catchers report.

 

[jon abbey]

I talked about it before, but right now they have Gil, Abreu, Medina, and Yajure on the 40 man, none of whom are likely to be able to help at all this year (maaaaaybe Abreu in relief in an emergency). It's hard to carry that many 40 man roster dead spots all season, so something likely has to give.

 

[EvilEmpire]

Hader has been dominant and is under team control for a while, but I'm a little uncomfortable trading so much talent for a RP, even if a lot of it is ill-fitting for the current team. That seems like the kind of deal that Cashman is better at doing in reverse. It may not apply to Hader, but it seems like there is too much variability in RP performance over time.

The bullpen is still very strong and I trust Cashman to find another guy or two, whether from the farm or elsewhere.

But I understand he has to move some guys off of the 40.

I think I'd rather see an upgrade at 1B (sorry, big man) or maybe some more OF depth.

Voit. I like him quite a bit, but I'm not sure how good he really is. The SSS in 2018 was awesome, but 2019 seem closer to his true talent level, even with the sports hernia. Offense is still solid. May even be great. His defense isn't. But he isn't too expensive, and that is nice.

OF depth. I love what Tauchman can bring to the table and don't want him going anywhere. Even if some of the offense was a flash in the pan (hopefully not), the positional flexibility and defense is great. I look forward to seeing how he performs this year.
I worry about Gardner being old.
I worry about Hicks being injury prone even after he recovers from TJ by mid-season.
Judge has played 112 and 102 games over the last two seasons.
Stanton missed most of last season, and while I think his defense may be underrated, Yankee Stadium LF is huge and I think he could help the team best (and stay in the lineup) at DH.

I'd like to see the Yankees get a quality OF who can (at least) play a good LF and maybe spot start at CF. Someone like Frazier who could play defense would be nice. Someone good enough to bump Gardner down to 4th OF, with Tauchman full time at CF maybe. Hicks could take his time making a full recovery.

So disappointing for Frazier to have such a golden opportunity to contribute this past season and not see him fully capitalize. Maybe he can overcome his defensive problems and still be that guy.

 

[jon abbey]

Those are all fair points, I guess I would counter by saying that Hader (the best reliever in MLB on paper) bumping Heller back to AAA for depth is very likely the most impactful single roster spot upgrade that NY can make. As for variability year to year for relievers, one could even make an argument that last year was a down year for Hader (15 HRs allowed) and that a bit like Chapman, once he really locks in his second pitch slider, he will be even better than he has been (he has mostly been FB to this point).

1B: Voit we know about, Ford had amazing numbers last year in both AAA and for NY, and behind them you have Chris Gittens, Eastern League MVP in AA who not only can hit but is also a better defender than the first two. Obviously Rizzo would be an upgrade here if available as he is a very good defender as well as a slightly better hitter, but how much of an upgrade?

OF: They did bring in Zach Granite already for the potential role you're suggesting, but if you're looking for a proven MLB OF to bump Gardner down, good luck. He was 17th best last year among all OFs in fWAR. He is old but I don't think on a one year deal that there is much more reason to expect him to slip than any other player, his foot speed was measured as fast as ever last year.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=of&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2019&month=0&season1=2019&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2019-01-01&enddate=2019-12-31&sort=21,d
Personally I am OK with the 1B situation (Andujar also is a possibility here if not moved) and the OF situation too, Maybin is still out there also for now. I would really like to see the catchers behind Sanchez upgraded, and I wouldn't mind a great defensive SS like Jose Iglesias added, although maybe they think they already have that in Kyle Holder.

The other thing about adding Hader is that he is only 25, Britton is 32, Chapman 31, Kahnle 30, Ottavino 34. Even Ben Heller is 28 already.

 

[EvilEmpire]

I agree that Hader is potentially the best single roster spot upgrade, but damn, if that HR problem shows up in this park with our fans, I think things with Hader are going to go south, fast.

With regard to the OF situation, by no means do I think Gardner is toast or anything, but I do suspect that he'll be more likely to produce at GGBG levels with less than a full load of games as a starter. 400ish ABs could be great for him. But it isn't so much that I'm worried about Gardner as I am the cumulative risk for the entire outfield between injury concerns, age-related decline and maybe Tauchman settling in at a lower level of offensive ability than he flashed last year. Hard to mitigate with so many guys locked into contracts, but that is what I'm most worried about.

 

[jon abbey]

Yeah, I talked at one point this winter about a deal with SD, they would prefer to not pay Austin Hedges and Manny Margot and I think both are very good fits for NY. Both have two options remaining so could be sent to Scranton for depth if there was no MLB spot for them, not that they'd be thrilled about that. Both are in arb and are estimated to make about $5M combined this year, not so much.

 

[terrynever]

I agree that Hader is potentially the best single roster spot upgrade, but damn, if that HR problem shows up in this park with our fans, I think things with Hader are going to go south, fast.

With regard to the OF situation, by no means do I think Gardner is toast or anything, but I do suspect that he'll be more likely to produce at GGBG levels with less than a full load of games as a starter. 400ish ABs could be great for him. But it isn't so much that I'm worried about Gardner as I am the cumulative risk for the entire outfield between injury concerns, age-related decline and maybe Tauchman settling in at a lower level of offensive ability than he flashed last year. Hard to mitigate with so many guys locked into contracts, but that is what I'm most worried about.

We will not be having any Tauchman doubts this winter. He is the next Paul O’Neill.

 

[jon abbey]

EE, here is my proposed Margot/Hedges deal from last month at length, I think this is the kind of thing you are looking for. I wish there was a way they could do this and also get Hader but that is hard to see.

https://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/2019-20-yankees-offseason-discussion.28616/page-6#post-3634225

 

[jon abbey]

Still a lot of Twitter buzz around a potential Hader to NY deal, the latest is that they have agreed on Andujar and Frazier and the sticking point is the other player/s, presumably a pitcher or two. None of this is from especially reputable sources, but to be honest, the non-reputable ones seem to get as much right as the reputable ones.

View: https://twitter.com/MLBMarathon/status/1210380881627668482

 

[SemperFidelisSox]

Andujar is a DH and Frazier is a 4th OF with ongoing concussion symptoms. Give me a break, Milwaukee. Get Florial or something.

 

[EvilEmpire]

EE, here is my proposed Margot/Hedges deal from last month at length, I think this is the kind of thing you are looking for.

Yeah, I think so. Good defensive players with options would help, especially in the OF. Some offensive upside would great though. I wonder what Yankees scouts and analytic guys think of the offensive potential of Margot compared to Granite? How much better is Margot?

None of that is as exciting as potentially adding elite talent like Hader. Or maybe impactful, especially if the lineup stays relatively healthy. Which could happen. Sadly, I'm definitely glass-half-empty on injury concerns after this past season.

The team has a higher ceiling with Hader and I guess I'm concerned about raising the floor in case things go sideways.

 

[jon abbey]

Catching behind Sanchez is still my biggest concern, hoping Jason Castro has a handshake deal with NY and is waiting for Cashman to open up roster space but not optimistic on this.

EE, the thing is you can only have so many tested backups, especially when you have 5 spots on the 40 man taken by guys who can't help until 2021 at least (4 pitchers and Florial). I definitely think there are more moves coming, Cashman is going for it (which doesn't necessarily mean sacrificing the future but it certainly could mean NY staying over the top tax line for a season).

 

[jon abbey]

Andujar is a DH and Frazier is a 4th OF with ongoing concussion symptoms. Give me a break, Milwaukee. Get Florial or something.

They should grab a few of the NY pitchers, I think it's just a question of which ones. I'd be fine with moving Florial too (in this or another deal), he might end up as something special in a few years but NY can't really afford to wait on him as they could better use the 40 man spot for someone who can help now.

 

[jon abbey]

Also there's some silliness on Twitter about Hader being a one inning pitcher, the guy threw three scoreless innings twice in the 2018 NLCS (46 and 31 pitches):

https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/MIL/MIL201810120.shtml
https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/MIL/MIL201810200.shtml

 

[jon abbey]

Wow, talk about one pseudo-exhibition game having an effect on a reliever's season, Stephen Tarpley was the opener for one of those London games against BOS with pinball conditions. He gave up 3 HRs to righties in one inning (Xander/JD/Vasquez) and so his splits for the season are horrendous, but he only gave up 2 other HRs to RHB all year besides that, 19 other games. I was ready to dump him based on his splits against righties, now I understand a bit better why NY still has him. He still might be gone soon, maybe he could go back as the fourth guy in the Hader deal (their choice of him or Holder).

 

[EvilEmpire]

I know fantasizing is discouraged here, but if I could pick an outfielder for Cashman to trade a bunch of prospects and assorted talent for instead of going after Hader, I think it would be Ramon Laureano.

Obviously, Hader is available and there is no reason for Laureano to be, so I know it isn't reasonable.

 

[jon abbey]

Dunno why OAK would move Laureano, but our old buddy Dustin Fowler is buried on their depth chart currently.

 

[terrynever]

Dunno why OAK would move Laureano, but our old buddy Dustin Fowler is buried on their depth chart currently.

Isn’t Fowler the rookie who almost ruined himself running into a fence? Gruesome injury. He looked like a guy with a future, which recalls Casey Stengel’s assessment of Greg Goosen’s future with the Mets. “He’s 20 and in 10 years he has a chance to be 30.” Sorry, I had to get that line in before the decade runs out.

 

[jon abbey]

Yeah, a super fast CF who looked like he was really blossoming in AAA, got the call up ahead of the more highly touted Clint Frazier, and for some reason they put him in RF for his debut. Of course he was super geeked up and much more used to playing CF with no walls on the side, and in the first inning, he ran harder into the wall than any player I have ever seen, really tough to watch.

Then they put him in the Sonny Gray deal, and he recovered his health shockingly quickly, but much like our other old buddy Jorge Mateo, he has yet to break through in OAK despite being on their 40 man for a few years now.

 

[terrynever]

Yeah, a super fast CF who looked like he was really blossoming in AAA, got the call up ahead of the more highly touted Clint Frazier, and for some reason they put him in RF for his debut. Of course he was super geeked up and much more used to playing CF with no walls on the side, and in the first inning, he ran harder into the wall than any player I have ever seen, really tough to watch.

Then they put him in the Sonny Gray deal, and he recovered his health shockingly quickly, but much like our other old buddy Jorge Mateo, he has yet to break through in OAK despite being on their 40 man for a few years now.

For every elite prospect who strikes gold, at least five fall off the mountain. Mateo was a can’t-miss kid at 17.

 

[jon abbey]

Another team that needs a 3B and has been rumored to have interest in Andujar is TEX. It’s hard to find a great match in return, but Jose Leclerc is controlled cheaply through 2024, so that could maybe be a backup if they can’t agree on a Hader package.

 

[jon abbey]

A relatively unfollowed Twitter account EvilEmpireTalks posted this on Dec 7:

"BREAKING: According to a source directly from the #Yankees FO, Gerrit Cole to the yankees is at the “10 yard line” and a deal will be completed by next week at the Winter meetings. I completely trust this source. More info soon."

Cole signed on the 11th, at the Winter meetings.

Just now he posted:

"BREAKING: Josh Hader to the #Yankees is “close” according to my source. Deal could be done within “the next 48 hours”."

And his followup on who he thinks will be included makes sense too, some of those guys would hurt to lose but wow, what a pitching staff.

"Names being tossed around are Andujar, Garcia, Gil, King, Frazier, and Florial. Obviously not saying all of them go but at least 2 or 3 of them will be part of the deal. Garcia and Andujar being the headline."

https://twitter.com/EvilEmpireTalk2

 

[jon abbey]

I don't think it can be King and Garcia both, that is NY's 7th and 8th SPs if they trade Happ, they need to keep one or the other. So I will guess Andujar and one of the three pitchers and one of the two outfielders, plus a reliever replacement in Holder or Tarpley as a 4th player in a 4 for 1.

That would free up 3 40 man spots, they need one of those for Gardner so they'd be at 38. Then if they could pull off that Manny Margot/Austin Hedges deal I was talking about (for the purposes of this let's say in exchange for pre-40 man talent that doesn't have to be protected yet, so the Padres can free up spots and a little money), that would be quite the offseason. Pardon my wishful thinking:

LeMahieu-2B
Judge-RF
Gleyber-SS
Stanton-DH
Voit-1B
Sanchez-C
Gardner-CF/LF
Urshela-3B
Tauchman-LF/CF

bench: Hedges, Margot, Mike Ford, Jose Iglesias (I signed him to a 1/5 deal), Hicks back at some point

Cole
Paxton
Severino
Tanaka
Montgomery, German back at some point

Cessa
Loaisiga
Green
Ottavino
Britton
Kahnle
Hader
Chapman

 

[BigMike]

For every elite prospect who strikes gold, at least five fall off the mountain. Mateo was a can’t-miss kid at 17.

well that is a huge stretch to say Mateo was ever a can't miss kid. His 17 year old year he posted a 764 ops in the dsl.

if you day 2013 was his 17 year old season, then better. He did turn 18 the first week of year. He did post a promising 828 ops in gcl, and with some power and a ton Of speed, but still very far from a can't miss player

 

[Reverend]

well that is a huge stretch to say Mateo was ever a can't miss kid. His 17 year old year he posted a 764 ops in the dsl.

if you day 2013 was his 17 year old season, then better. He did turn 18 the first week of year. He did post a promising 828 ops in gcl, and with some power and a ton Of speed, but still very far from a can't miss player

That’s very true; we don’t really know how a teenager will come out, really, do you?

 

[jon abbey]

Yeah, Mateo was an insane athlete and still is, but that doesn't always translate to being a great player as we know. I think that's what Terry meant, Mateo was never a top 10 or 20 MLB prospect.

 

[terrynever]

well that is a huge stretch to say Mateo was ever a can't miss kid. His 17 year old year he posted a 764 ops in the dsl.

if you day 2013 was his 17 year old season, then better. He did turn 18 the first week of year. He did post a promising 828 ops in gcl, and with some power and a ton Of speed, but still very far from a can't miss player

“Can’t miss” was a poor choice on my part. This 2017 article puts Mateo’s career in perspective. He was hot stuff for about 10 minutes, and then Gleyber Torres dropped into the Yankees’ lap. Now 24, Mateo did hit 19 homers in the PCL last season.

https://www.minorleagueball.com/2017/7/3/15916542/heeees-back-new-york-yankees-prospect-jorge-mateo-is-grooving-in-trenton
https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=mateo-000jor

 

[jon abbey]

If I told you that a Yankee had the best OPS against LHP in all of MLB last year (minimum 25 ABs), it would take a lot of guesses before you got to lefty hitting Mike Ford, but that’s who it is.

7 HRs in just 33 ABs, ahead of JDM and Tatis in 2nd and 3rd.

http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/batting/_/split/31/sort/OPS/minpa/25

 

[jon abbey]

Kind of big off the field news, as NY continues to drastically revamp their coaching/advisory staff:

"The Yankees will make significant changes to their strength-and-conditioning and training staff rosters for 2020 following a year in which they set a record for most injured players in a single season. The injuries began in spring training and ran the course of the season, many of which appeared to be aggravations of prior injuries. At times during the 2019 season, general manager Brian Cashman dubbed the inquiry into their injury issues as “CSI: The Bronx.”

Their next move will be significant. The Yankees have hired Eric Cressey, a well known and highly sought-after performance coach, to oversee their training and strength-and-conditioning departments, sources told The Athletic. As part of an overhaul that will include new hires by Cressey, the Yankees will also transition longtime athletic trainer Steve Donohue to a status akin to trainer emeritus, though it’s expected he will remain involved with the club."

Donohue has been with the organization since 1979, with the Yankees big league team since 1986, and the head trainer since 2012 when Gene Monahan retired. Cressey is 38 and Donohue is 62. Time for some fresh blood!

https://theathletic.com/1508234/2020/01/03/after-slew-of-injuries-yankees-transforming-their-training-strength-and-conditioning-staffs/

 

[jon abbey]

Ah, Matt Blake was the pitching coordinator at Cressey Sports Performance before joining the Indians in 2016, it's all coming together.

 

[jon abbey]

Rob Friedman says “Amazing hire” and “ No one in the industry is better at what he does than Eric Cressey”.

View: https://twitter.com/pitchingninja/status/1213276897825771521?s=21

 

[Marciano490]

Damn. Cressey is a name I recognize from back in the day when he was starting up. I used to email him questions and he’d give good advice. I know a bunch of lifters that trained with him or learned to coach under him. He’s a good dude and was one of the early adopters of mobility work.

 

[TheDivision]

“CSI: The Bronx.”

Cashman has a sense of humor but his moves show he was quite serious. The CSI comment could probably extend to pitching as they completely overhauled that part of the organization as well. This offseason has been very productive for the team.

 

[jon abbey]

I love the movement towards youth in the coaching staff which started with Boone replacing Girardi (9 years younger) and Blake and Cressey replacing Rothschild and Donohue is an extreme version of that.

 

[jon abbey]

Experts on Twitter loving this move:

"Yankees aren’t messing around in upgrading their player development operation this offseason"-Travis Sawchik

"Cressey is a rock star. Great hire."-JJ Cooper

And from Cressey's web site:

"“I have used Cressey Sports Performance programming for my last nine off-seasons. CSP has been a crucial part of the success I have had in my career to this point. The programs have helped me gain velocity as well as put my body in a position to remain healthy throughout a long season."

Corey Kluber"

 

[Marciano490]

I love the movement towards youth in the coaching staff which started with Boone replacing Girardi (9 years younger) and Blake and Cressey replacing Rothschild and Donohue is an extreme version of that.

Cressey is a New Englander who I believe has always worked in MA or CT. I wonder if the Sox ever looked at him.

He was a competitive powerlifter for awhile, too. I think at 165 he was deadlifting over 600, which is nifty.

 

[jon abbey]

It must have taken a big offer to get him to leave his own company, people on Twitter are guessing around $1M. They have offices in Hudson, MA and Jupiter, FL but I think you're right that the MA one was the big one. As for the lifting numbers, his bio says:

"As a competitive powerlifter, Eric holds several state, national, and world records. A mainstay in the Powerlifting USA Top 100 lifts in his weight class, Cressey has competition bests of 540 squat, 402 bench, 650 deadlift, and 1532 total in the 165-pound weight class. "

 

[VORP Speed]

That is a great, great hire. I really hate the super smart version of the Yankees.

 

[Marciano490]

It must have taken a big offer to get him to leave his own company, people on Twitter are guessing around $1M. They have offices in Hudson, MA and Jupiter, FL but I think you're right that the MA one was the big one. As for the lifting numbers, his bio says:

"As a competitive powerlifter, Eric holds several state, national, and world records. A mainstay in the Powerlifting USA Top 100 lifts in his weight class, Cressey has competition bests of 540 squat, 402 bench, 650 deadlift, and 1532 total in the 165-pound weight class. "

Yeah 10x bodyweight is world class and he came very close. I feel like he had a place in CT for a long time too, but good for the Yankees going out and getting the best.

I remember I used to train with a guy at TPS years ago. We both were low to mid-500 pound deadlifters. He went to train with Cressey, and I moved to NYC. I ran into him awhile back at a meet. I was still 220, he’s moved up to 242.

I pulled 585.
He pulled 705.

So, yeah, Cressey is legit.

 

[ThePrideofShiner]

I wonder if the reason the Hader rumors have dried up is because of Arenado being on the block. I'd much rather trade prospects for him.

 

[jon abbey]

I wonder if the reason the Hader rumors have dried up is because of Arenado being on the block. I'd much rather trade prospects for him.

Supposedly the Brewers want Dominguez, and he is rightly the one guy Cashman won’t move.

 

[ThePrideofShiner]

Interesting. And yeah, that's a nonstarter.

 

[jon abbey]

They are supposedly starting him in Staten Island this summer, very aggressive but like to see that. I don't remember where I read it but I believe they confirmed they are hoping for the Juan Soto developmental plan, which means bigs at 19 which would be 2022 for Jasson the Martian. Aaron Hicks, your window is rapidly closing.