I thought it would be interesting to start a thread to highlight some players in the upcoming NFL Draft that seem like players that the Patriots may target. There is obviously no way we can know as much about a player as the various scouting departments across the league, but from following the Patriots for long enough I think it is easy enough to have a feel for what sort of attributes the Patriots look for at various positions and then it all comes down to need and value whether they end up in Patriots uniform.
I would generally describe what I see as the Patriots approach to the draft as the following:
Round 1 - High floor, immediate starter that impacts multiple phases of the game. Focus more on lineman or tight ends/linebackers that are equally important in the passing and running game. Skill position players need to have considerable special teams value (see Devin McCourty when he was first drafted).
Round 2 - Similar to Round 1 players but more risk/lower potential floor.
Rounds 3 & 4 - Potential starters or players that fulfill a specific role.
Rounds 5 - 7 - A combination of players with significant risks and one dimensional development players. I like to think of Marcus Cannon as a decent example of a player with significant risk (medical) and Elandon Roberts as a one dimensional development player. Elandon seemed to show that he is a potentially well above average downhill linebacker, but as the super bowl showed he has a lot of work to do in coverage. The Patriots can utilize him in specific ways while they try to develop his weaknesses.
With that in mind, here are a few players that seem like they could end up in a Patriots uniform. We will obviously know more about these players from a casual fan perspective after the combine.
T.J. Watt - OLB - Wisconsin
Height: 6'5"
Weight: 243
Projected Round: 1-2
Ceiling Player Comparison: Clay Matthews
NFL.com Scouting Profile: http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/t.j.-watt?id=2558064
Highlight Video:
Why Patriots would like him?: Belichick defenses throughout the years have always boasted a very strong linebacking corps. Belichick has also a proven affinity for linebackers with elite measurables from a size and weight perspective (Hightower: 6'3" 265, Collins 6'3" 250, Mayo 6'1" 250, Van Noy 6'3" 243, Sheard 6'3" 265, etc.). There are not many top linebackers in the draft that exhibit the length and weight that Belichick typically looks for in a top linebacker. Watt seems best as a 3-4 linebacker occasionally lining up at the end of the line and rushing the QB with his hand in the dirt. I would think the Patriots would use him similarly to how they envisioned using Sheard. Much more of a swiss army knife moving along the line attacking the running game and rushing the passer than dropping into coverage. Although listed at 243, I wouldn't be surprised if he shows up to the combine weighing more than 250 given his frame.
Malik McDowell - DE/DT - Michigan State
Height: 6'6"
Weight: 276
Projected Round: 1-2
Ceiling Player Comparison: Michael Bennett??
NFL.com Scouting Profile: http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/malik-mcdowell?id=2557970
Highlight Video:
Why Patriots would like him?: I think an obsession of Belichick's since the Giants Super Bowls has been the desire to be able to generate interior pressure on obvious passing downs rather than pressure off the edge. With QBs becoming more mobile, outside pressure becomes a liability because if you lose containment the QB can break out for a run or buy more time for his receivers to get open. Effective interior pressure is harder to avoid. I think back to Michael Bennett in the Seahawks Super Bowl as a driving force behind the Easley draft pick and for how to best use McDowell. I would actually line him up outside on first and second down and then flex him inside on obvious passing downs. He has the length and quickness to play outside but is a better fit for an interior rusher given his size. I think he was misused at Michigan State where sometimes he was actually asked to play NT.
O.J. Howard - TE - Alabama
Height: 6'6"
Weight: 249
Projected Round: 1
Ceiling Player Comparison: Julius Thomas
NFL.com Scouting Profile: http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/o.j.-howard?id=2557856
Highlight Video:
Why Patriots would like him?: Elite athlete at the position that is only lacking a few pounds to be the ideal physical specimen. Real debate about him was why wasn't he more productive in college. Clearly he played at one of the top programs in the country so he should be a much more high profile player. Big fans of Howard seem to blame Lane Kiffin for not utilizing the tightend position properly. Detractors of Howard seem to point to a lack of competitiveness and desire to be as good as he can be.
Garett Bolles - OT - Utah
Height: 6'5"
Weight: 300
Projected Round: 1-2
Ceiling Player Comparison: Nate Solder
NFL.com Scouting Profile: http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/garett-bolles?id=2558014
Highlight Video:
Why Patriots would like him?: I am no expert on evaluating line play, but Bolles seems to exhibit a lot of the skills the Patriots look for in Dante's system. He is very fluid with excellent feet. Great releasing out into space and making blocks on screens or draw plays. Lacks the bulk and experience to be a truly elite LT. However, I think he is perfect player for the Patriots to redshirt much like they did with Solder and then eventually replace Solder when his contract is up. Think Dante might fall in love with this guy.
Curtis Samuel - WR/RB - Ohio State
Height: 5'11"
Weight: 197
Projected Round: 2-4
Ceiling Player Comparison: Percy Harvin
NFL.com Scouting Profile: http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/curtis-samuel?id=2558066
Highlight Video:
Why Patriots would like him?: Think of Samuel as a rich man's DJ Foster. Not really a wide receiver and not really a runningback, but could present some interesting matchup problems if used correctly. Will come down to where in the draft Samuel is available. I am personally interested to see how Belichick approaches all the Ohio State prospects after Belichick's old man crush on Urban Meyer players ended up in nothing but disaster after disaster (see Aaron Hernandez, Brandon Spikes, etc.).
I would generally describe what I see as the Patriots approach to the draft as the following:
Round 1 - High floor, immediate starter that impacts multiple phases of the game. Focus more on lineman or tight ends/linebackers that are equally important in the passing and running game. Skill position players need to have considerable special teams value (see Devin McCourty when he was first drafted).
Round 2 - Similar to Round 1 players but more risk/lower potential floor.
Rounds 3 & 4 - Potential starters or players that fulfill a specific role.
Rounds 5 - 7 - A combination of players with significant risks and one dimensional development players. I like to think of Marcus Cannon as a decent example of a player with significant risk (medical) and Elandon Roberts as a one dimensional development player. Elandon seemed to show that he is a potentially well above average downhill linebacker, but as the super bowl showed he has a lot of work to do in coverage. The Patriots can utilize him in specific ways while they try to develop his weaknesses.
With that in mind, here are a few players that seem like they could end up in a Patriots uniform. We will obviously know more about these players from a casual fan perspective after the combine.
T.J. Watt - OLB - Wisconsin
Height: 6'5"
Weight: 243
Projected Round: 1-2
Ceiling Player Comparison: Clay Matthews
NFL.com Scouting Profile: http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/t.j.-watt?id=2558064
Highlight Video:
Why Patriots would like him?: Belichick defenses throughout the years have always boasted a very strong linebacking corps. Belichick has also a proven affinity for linebackers with elite measurables from a size and weight perspective (Hightower: 6'3" 265, Collins 6'3" 250, Mayo 6'1" 250, Van Noy 6'3" 243, Sheard 6'3" 265, etc.). There are not many top linebackers in the draft that exhibit the length and weight that Belichick typically looks for in a top linebacker. Watt seems best as a 3-4 linebacker occasionally lining up at the end of the line and rushing the QB with his hand in the dirt. I would think the Patriots would use him similarly to how they envisioned using Sheard. Much more of a swiss army knife moving along the line attacking the running game and rushing the passer than dropping into coverage. Although listed at 243, I wouldn't be surprised if he shows up to the combine weighing more than 250 given his frame.
Malik McDowell - DE/DT - Michigan State
Height: 6'6"
Weight: 276
Projected Round: 1-2
Ceiling Player Comparison: Michael Bennett??
NFL.com Scouting Profile: http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/malik-mcdowell?id=2557970
Highlight Video:
Why Patriots would like him?: I think an obsession of Belichick's since the Giants Super Bowls has been the desire to be able to generate interior pressure on obvious passing downs rather than pressure off the edge. With QBs becoming more mobile, outside pressure becomes a liability because if you lose containment the QB can break out for a run or buy more time for his receivers to get open. Effective interior pressure is harder to avoid. I think back to Michael Bennett in the Seahawks Super Bowl as a driving force behind the Easley draft pick and for how to best use McDowell. I would actually line him up outside on first and second down and then flex him inside on obvious passing downs. He has the length and quickness to play outside but is a better fit for an interior rusher given his size. I think he was misused at Michigan State where sometimes he was actually asked to play NT.
O.J. Howard - TE - Alabama
Height: 6'6"
Weight: 249
Projected Round: 1
Ceiling Player Comparison: Julius Thomas
NFL.com Scouting Profile: http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/o.j.-howard?id=2557856
Highlight Video:
Why Patriots would like him?: Elite athlete at the position that is only lacking a few pounds to be the ideal physical specimen. Real debate about him was why wasn't he more productive in college. Clearly he played at one of the top programs in the country so he should be a much more high profile player. Big fans of Howard seem to blame Lane Kiffin for not utilizing the tightend position properly. Detractors of Howard seem to point to a lack of competitiveness and desire to be as good as he can be.
Garett Bolles - OT - Utah
Height: 6'5"
Weight: 300
Projected Round: 1-2
Ceiling Player Comparison: Nate Solder
NFL.com Scouting Profile: http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/garett-bolles?id=2558014
Highlight Video:
Why Patriots would like him?: I am no expert on evaluating line play, but Bolles seems to exhibit a lot of the skills the Patriots look for in Dante's system. He is very fluid with excellent feet. Great releasing out into space and making blocks on screens or draw plays. Lacks the bulk and experience to be a truly elite LT. However, I think he is perfect player for the Patriots to redshirt much like they did with Solder and then eventually replace Solder when his contract is up. Think Dante might fall in love with this guy.
Curtis Samuel - WR/RB - Ohio State
Height: 5'11"
Weight: 197
Projected Round: 2-4
Ceiling Player Comparison: Percy Harvin
NFL.com Scouting Profile: http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/curtis-samuel?id=2558066
Highlight Video:
Why Patriots would like him?: Think of Samuel as a rich man's DJ Foster. Not really a wide receiver and not really a runningback, but could present some interesting matchup problems if used correctly. Will come down to where in the draft Samuel is available. I am personally interested to see how Belichick approaches all the Ohio State prospects after Belichick's old man crush on Urban Meyer players ended up in nothing but disaster after disaster (see Aaron Hernandez, Brandon Spikes, etc.).
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