If the Patriots think that JG will be a top tier QB in the NFL, then Brady should be pretty much irrelevant.
I love Brady, he's the best that's ever been, but he's on borrowed time. If they think they have the quarterback of the future(10+ years), they absolutely should not let him go. If it comes down to franchising JG next year, and him holding out unless he gets to start, then you give Brady the talk, and the option to retire, or go elsewhere.
The only way you let JG go is if you think he ISNT the guy. The cap ramifications of spending $40M on QBs for one year is just so tiny compared to the ramifications of not having an above average quarterback for several years.
I'm not sure that's true.
It's not unreasonable to think Brady has 2 years of top 5 level play, followed by 2 years of "quite good" (top 1/3?),
Yes it's unprecedented, but it's not unreasonable. Hell you might even get another year or two of "reliable game manager who doesn't throw interceptions and has the occasional vintage level game".
Do you take 4 years of high-level QB play (with the uncertainty that he might fall off faster than that)
plus any trade haul from JG (which would improve the team in other areas)?
or
Do you take the possibility of 10 years of top tier QB play, without that draft pick?
Both are uncertain. Obviously if you
knew JG was going to a. be top tier, and b. be top tier for 10 years, maybe you figure out how to make the transition. But it's not like JG is a sure thing, even if they have the utmost confidence in the guy.
We could trade JG to Cleveland and watch him be a top-tier QB over the next 10 years
or less (injury...),
and still watch Brady go from best to great to quite good to good enough over 5-6 of those, and meet Cleveland in the playoffs during some of those season.
I'll sign on for that.
*again, I know projecting Brady to still be playing 6 years from now might seem crazy, and I'm not sure that BB should actually count on that (assuming Brady wants it). But I bet BB has projected out what he sees as a best case scenario (not pine in the sky) that sees Brady on the field in 5 years. And JG as top-5 QB for the next 10 years is at least as "best case".
snip
So keeping him now makes me think JG will be the QB of the Pats on opening day 2027.
This is what I mean. Projecting JG as top-tier QB out 10 years is pretty bold. Even if BB thinks JG really is a top-five guy, what % do you think he'd put on JG still being in there 10 years from now?