Possibly a bit premature for this discussion, but spurred on by Buster Olney's speculation that the Red Sox might try to move Rusney to free up payroll - as well as the discussion of selling and buying that will invariably crop up in July - I decided to take a look at the payroll for next year. (Numbers via a combination of Cot's and Baseball-Reference.)
First, the guarantees. These are AAVs with actual salaries in parentheses. I'm not skilled enough to attempt a fancy table. Assume all figures are millions unless otherwise indicated.
Pedroia - 13.75 (13)
Ramirez - 22 (22)*
Sandoval - 19 (17.6)
Porcello - 20.6 (20)
Castillo - 10.35 (11.27)
Uehara - 9 (9)
Miley - 6.4 (6.17)
Hanigan - 3.58 (3.7)
Total - 104.43
* - Not sure how Hanley's vesting option gets factored into AAV calculation. Anyone know?
Now options that are probably going to get picked up
Buchholz - 13
Ortiz -10 UPDATE: He's already up to $12 million; no reason to think as of now he won't make it up to the $16 million that represents the top end of what this option year could be worth.
New Total - 133.43
Pre-arb guys who will probably factor into next year's plans as of now:
Layne
Bogaerts
Holt
Betts
Vazquez
Barnes
Swihart
Bradley
Wright
Rodriguez
Workman
These eleven players will collectively earn between 5.5 and 6.5 million dollars in all likelihood. I will split the difference and call it 6 million.
New Total - 139.43
Arbitration cases - I have no idea what some of these guys might get.
Tazawa
Nava
Ross
Varvaro
Ogando
Kelly
Baseball Reference estimates this group at 23.58 million. I think Varvaro gets non-tendered, so I will (generously) lop off a million. UPDATE: This is still probably high. Looking at just these four guys, it will probably be closer to $10 million.
New Total - 149.01
In case you were wondering, this year marks the last that they needed to send anything to the Dodgers. There's also the matter of Allen Craig, who, if he gets added back to the 40-man, carries an AAV of 6.2 million. That would take them to 156.22.
Please, feel free to check my work; I wouldn't be surprised if I messed something up somewhere.
First, the guarantees. These are AAVs with actual salaries in parentheses. I'm not skilled enough to attempt a fancy table. Assume all figures are millions unless otherwise indicated.
Pedroia - 13.75 (13)
Ramirez - 22 (22)*
Sandoval - 19 (17.6)
Porcello - 20.6 (20)
Castillo - 10.35 (11.27)
Uehara - 9 (9)
Miley - 6.4 (6.17)
Hanigan - 3.58 (3.7)
Total - 104.43
* - Not sure how Hanley's vesting option gets factored into AAV calculation. Anyone know?
Now options that are probably going to get picked up
Buchholz - 13
Ortiz -
New Total - 133.43
Pre-arb guys who will probably factor into next year's plans as of now:
Layne
Bogaerts
Holt
Betts
Vazquez
Barnes
Swihart
Bradley
Wright
Rodriguez
Workman
These eleven players will collectively earn between 5.5 and 6.5 million dollars in all likelihood. I will split the difference and call it 6 million.
New Total - 139.43
Arbitration cases - I have no idea what some of these guys might get.
Tazawa
Ross
Ogando
Kelly
Baseball Reference estimates this group at 23.58 million. I think Varvaro gets non-tendered, so I will (generously) lop off a million. UPDATE: This is still probably high. Looking at just these four guys, it will probably be closer to $10 million.
New Total - 149.01
In case you were wondering, this year marks the last that they needed to send anything to the Dodgers. There's also the matter of Allen Craig, who, if he gets added back to the 40-man, carries an AAV of 6.2 million. That would take them to 156.22.
Please, feel free to check my work; I wouldn't be surprised if I messed something up somewhere.