Draft pick(s)
No reporting on what level. A few hours ago there was some reporting that SF and Denver had agreed to the trade package pending Denver being able to renegotiate Kaep's deal.
2016 Broncos Thread: Elway or the Highway
- Thread starter 86spike
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No reporting on what level. A few hours ago there was some reporting that SF and Denver had agreed to the trade package pending Denver being able to renegotiate Kaep's deal.
I don't think The Broncos losses are crippling or anything but, yeah, that's actually kind of exactly his point.
Well the other point is that Denver had tons of cash to give away which is how they got into this position. First title winner with like 50% of their roster as free agents. It worked but it's not a sustainable model so it will be interesting to see if Elway can keep them competitive despite guys leaving for bigger deals. Seattle returned to the Super Bowl and then the divisional round after winning. The Pats have gone SB-AFCCG-AFCCG-SB-AFCCG the last five years. Will the Broncos make the playoffs again soon? TBD
Again banners fly forever so good for them. But the "easy" part is done. I expect something more like Baltimore who has now missed the playoffs two out of three years since winning
Again banners fly forever so good for them. But the "easy" part is done. I expect something more like Baltimore who has now missed the playoffs two out of three years since winning
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Maybe Osweiler was gone no matter what after the benching, but Elway & Co. screwed the pooch further IMO by indulging the Manning 'will he/won't he' retirement saga and letting Brock stew. Unless they had some sort of backroom deal with Peyton already in place, they should have just moved on.
You're engaging in hyperbole. The defensive core from 2015 will be fully in tact for 2016. Replacing a DE and a MLB is not some kind of herculean task that no GM can accomplish. The offense was fucking terrible last year. Busting that up and reworking things is not a bad call, IMO. They will be keeping their WR corps in tact and basically reworking everything else.
Also, Denver is on a 5 year playoff streak with 2 SB berths in 3 seasons. If they take a step back next year that is still a terrific run in the modern salary cap NFL. Elway's plan was always aimed at winning a SB before Manning dissolved into a pile of rust. He did it. The next phase for the team is secondary to accomplishing that goal.
Sorry, I meant they were constructed with 50% of their roster as not-homegrown. They built a team of free agents. Sorry for the lack of clarification.
They have had a great run, Elway did a great job in getting Manning, Ware, Ward, Talib, etc. But the point is that this model is unlikely to work long-term due to the lack of homegrown talent. Elway has his work cut out for him in terms of making this team a perennial playoff contender for the next several years.
got it, thanks for clarifying.
Personally, I don't give a shit about homegrown beyond the obvious benefits of salary cap value for guys in their first 4-5 years. The best of the players who are now leaving the team for more money were homegrown (Malik, Osweiler, Trevathan, Anderson, assuming he does leave). One can certainly argue that losing those guys is due to money tied up in non-homegrown players and that's a bad thing, but another way to look at it is those players produced well on cheaper deals and now that they will cost more than the team thinks that are worth, they are bad investments for a team like Denver that hopes/plans to contend. Denver got their best years and the cheapest ones and now they let them cash in and move on. Elway has paid top dollar to keep the best homegrown players long term (Demaryius, Von) and also struck early with a few key homegrown guys to lock them up early to team-friendly deals (Harris, Wolfe). He's not sentimental about players and draws a firm line at where he is willing to walk away from a negotiation (maybe his mid-life career owning car dealerships taught him a few things about that). The result on that is some players finding out they can earn much more elsewhere and then having free agents come in and fill the blanks.
You're correct that we don't know if his approach can work for a decade, but we're halfway there and it's been pretty damn successful so far.
That is pretty much what I was getting at. They won a ton because they were able to buy high priced free agents. They will no longer be able to do that; they can't even afford to retain their home grown talent at this point.
It's not just a matter of money/cap, either, but also how Denver is perceived by free agents moving forward. They are still a model franchise in many respects, but it is easier to get players to come to Denver when you have Payton Manning playing at a high level and they know winning is almost inevitable. Now that Denver has to be tighter with the cap and doesn't have the built-in advantage of having one of the best QBs of all time, it will interesting to see how Elway handles the roster moving forward.
The deck was stacked in his favor the minute Manning signed. Now he has to win by playing the same cards as most.
The deck was stacked in his favor the minute Manning signed. Now he has to win by playing the same cards as most.
They are retaining guys like DT and Von and Harris and Wolfe. They just don't choose to retain all of them and will look to re-stock in the draft and with less expensive FAs.
Is this some rare approach to NFL roster building that I'm missing? Seems like a challenge that all NFL teams have. Especially successful ones.
No, from here, they are in the same boat as everyone else. That is kind of my point - that they weren't in the same boat as everyone else because they were able to just buy up a bunch of star players to put around Manning, Miller, Harris, Wolfe. Now they won't be able to buy up star players so they are on the same path as everyone else - and I have a ton of skepticism that they will be able to be successful from this point forward.
I think citing Seattle as an example is confusing here. Denver's model (Div Rd-SB loss-Div Rd-SB win) might have been as sustainable as Seattle's (Div Rd-SB win-SB loss-Div Rd). Agree with you that they are now in the same boat as everyone else, but to me getting 4-5 good years out of a model shows it's reasonably sustainable in NFL terms; it's just that their SB win came at the end of a period of sustainability, rather than nearer the start.
It was the perfect storm. They got Manning, and then were able to pay a bunch of star free agents big time $$ because they had some home grown talent at bargain prices (both Thomases, Decker, Miller, Harris, Wolfe, etc.). There is a reason that most champions have a majority of home grown players - the free agency approach simply doesn't work. This was the only success story. Which is why I call it not sustainable. But fair point that it worked for them for 4 years.
I don't think Denver's core is in all that bad of shape going into next year.
The defense will return 9 out of 11 of their SB starters as of now.
The offense, which sucked last year, is being retooled to better fit the new coaching staff's scheme (which they never utilized fully last year since the roster didn't match up right away).
If they have relative luck with health, I do not expect Denver to drop off all that much and would consider them favorites to win the AFC West again.
The defense will return 9 out of 11 of their SB starters as of now.
The offense, which sucked last year, is being retooled to better fit the new coaching staff's scheme (which they never utilized fully last year since the roster didn't match up right away).
If they have relative luck with health, I do not expect Denver to drop off all that much and would consider them favorites to win the AFC West again.
“@MikeKlis: Broncos acquire Mark Sanchez from Philly for conditional draft pick. Process has begun #9news #9sports”
@Smiling Joe Hesketh
@Smiling Joe Hesketh
Is he a backup though, or does Elway think he can be the starter?
I mean, Elway's not an idiot, so Sanchez shouldn't be the starter, but then again they just won the SB with subpar play from Manning most of the year, so maybe it's not incredibly far-fetched to think they'll look at Sanchez and give him a chance to start.
I mean, Elway's not an idiot, so Sanchez shouldn't be the starter, but then again they just won the SB with subpar play from Manning most of the year, so maybe it's not incredibly far-fetched to think they'll look at Sanchez and give him a chance to start.
He could be entering his Trollichick phase, doing things just to taunt other people and to see if he can get away with them.
For 2016, it may not matter who his QB is, frankly.
I had to call a work connection of mine and he's a big Jets fan... hates and I mean hates Mark Sanchez... I thought I was about to get an avalanche of laughter out of him but instead his reaction was "holy shit I can't believe that asshole Sanchez is going to win a Super Bowl..."
He has a $5.5M cap hit. If they see him as a back-up, I gotta assume that means one of two things:
1) they will attempt to restructure his deal to add years and move his cap hit out later and cut the hit to 2016 by a ton; or
2) Elway is planning to make a huge leap in the draft to go for one of the few decent QB prospects and sees Sanchez as a bridge guy.
1) they will attempt to restructure his deal to add years and move his cap hit out later and cut the hit to 2016 by a ton; or
2) Elway is planning to make a huge leap in the draft to go for one of the few decent QB prospects and sees Sanchez as a bridge guy.
Chase Daniel was with Doug Pederson for years in KC and Pederson wanted his guy in Philly. I don't see that as an indictment on Sanchez.
I believe $1 MM of that cap hit is bonus money that would stay with Philly, so his cap hit is only $4.5 in Denver. And they can save $3.5 by cutting Sanchez if they end up acquiring a better option somewhere along the line.
“@AdamSchefter: Even after trading for Mark Sanchez, Broncos plan to bring in another QB to compete for starting job. Denver not done at QB yet.”
Will compete for the job it seems.
How about the fact that he got traded for a conditional 7th round pick in 2017?
Wouldn't the indictment on Sanchez be if he was cut because no other team thought he was worth trading anything of value for him? Philly moved on because of Bradford and Daniel being on the roster and saw no need for Sanchez at his salary number as the 3rd QB or roster cut candidate. Once Daniel was signed they were free to shop Sanchez and apparently Denver thought he was worth it at his current cap hit to trade for him as opposed to taking the chance on him being cut and available to other teams.
While I understand the 7th round pick in 2017 is next nothing, I don't believe that it properly reflects the value Sanchez has to a team like Denver who has Trevor Siemian as their only QB on their roster.
Really? About the only thing I like about Rex is that he REFUSED to throw Sanchez to the wolves (by sucking up all the oxygen—and snacks—in the room of course).
The problem is that there is very, very little chance that the D performs at the same level, not just because they've lost players but because its almost unprecedented in the modern era for a defense to perform at a level that high for consecutive years. Denver had a -25.8 defensive DVOA last year. Many teams have had defenses in the -20 to -25 DVOA range for a single year, but the only team to be better than -20 for two straight years is the 99-00 Ravens (the 03-04 Ravens also came very close).
The smart money is on Denver having a very good but not insanely-bordering-on-historically-good defense next year. A very good defense plus Mark Sanchez...I've seen that movie before.
I don't mean the press. I would never call press nerds wolves. I meant the opposing team. He was fine his first two years and then he got the shit hit out of him in year three and four.
Poor defense. You carry the corpse of pey pey the abuser to a superbowl and your reward is to try that again with Kaep and Sanchez (maybe).
Jesus that's harsh.
Jesus that's harsh.
Mike Sando via Twitter posted this stat sheet of Sanchez and Manning in their past 20 games:
So 1) not an upgrade, not a downgrade, but the Goldilocks of replacement QB's. And 2) They're doubling down on the 2015 recipe for success (aka Pat Riley's Knicks teams of the early mid-90's).
I'm not diving too deep into last season's stats, but weren't some DEN wins in 2015 construed as more luck-driven? My back of the napkin eye test recollection is "yes." So if Denver's D even tails off a little bit - which you'd have to expect since it's hard to sustain all-world status two years in a row - couldn't you also expect the W-L ball bounces to not necessarily be as horseshoe driven in the Broncos favor in 2016?
I mean, this really is all they can do until they draft a QB and wait for the window to collapse into full-on rebuild. Which, as cannot be overstated, is moot now that they are SB champs (aka "mission accomplished").
So 1) not an upgrade, not a downgrade, but the Goldilocks of replacement QB's. And 2) They're doubling down on the 2015 recipe for success (aka Pat Riley's Knicks teams of the early mid-90's).
I'm not diving too deep into last season's stats, but weren't some DEN wins in 2015 construed as more luck-driven? My back of the napkin eye test recollection is "yes." So if Denver's D even tails off a little bit - which you'd have to expect since it's hard to sustain all-world status two years in a row - couldn't you also expect the W-L ball bounces to not necessarily be as horseshoe driven in the Broncos favor in 2016?
I mean, this really is all they can do until they draft a QB and wait for the window to collapse into full-on rebuild. Which, as cannot be overstated, is moot now that they are SB champs (aka "mission accomplished").
Great point - Denver could play at the exact same level in 2016 as they did in 2015 and only win about 9 games, purely due to the luck factor.
Off the top of my head:
- They won in Cleveland despite Manning throwing a pick in overtime that game Cleveland the ball in Denver territory
- They won the game at Arrowhead when Andy Reid decided to run it on the last play instead of take a knee
- They won in Oakland when Oakland, down 9-7 late in the 4th quarter and in FG range, threw a pick 6
- They won the Pats game after the punt muff, the Gronk injury, the questionable officiating, etc. etc.
Off the top of my head:
- They won in Cleveland despite Manning throwing a pick in overtime that game Cleveland the ball in Denver territory
- They won the game at Arrowhead when Andy Reid decided to run it on the last play instead of take a knee
- They won in Oakland when Oakland, down 9-7 late in the 4th quarter and in FG range, threw a pick 6
- They won the Pats game after the punt muff, the Gronk injury, the questionable officiating, etc. etc.
And you think this broncos offensive line is any better?
The Jets lines were actually pretty decent. Off the top of my head, D'Brickshaw Ferguson, Mangold, Woody, and Faneca all would have been better then what the Broncos have (and just won the SB with!?!?).
Peytons pocket presence wasn't what it used to be, but it was still good. We watched Brock take plenty of sacks. Just wait until Sanchez gets his happy feet and forces a throw instead of taking a hit.
The Broncos can win with a game manager. Sanchez is the antithesis of a game manager. He WILL submarine the Denver season if given too much playing time. The fact they're looking at Fitzpatrick, who has the same flaw of forcing plays unnecessarily that Sanchez has, is fucking insane.
Honestly, Bradford would have been a sneaky signing for this team.
Well Brock did have a much better passer rating than Sanchize, driven by a far better TD:INT ratio. If Brock had played all year the Broncos likely would have "earned" their 12 wins even more than they did.
I thought Talib was cuttable this year. I'm reading at overthecap that he's almost $10mm against the cap if he stays, and $11.5mm against the cap if he's cut. It's not until next year that he's down to $2mm against the cap if he's cut. Is that true?
Schlereth this morning on SC said he expects the Broncos to have four new starters along the O-line next season. A brand-new line and a brand-new QB.
Phew
Adam Schefter @AdamSchefter 57s58 seconds ago
Broncos have informed RB CJ Anderson they are matching Miami's offer sheet, per source. He stays in Denver.
Broncos have informed RB CJ Anderson they are matching Miami's offer sheet, per source. He stays in Denver.