2015 Seahawks: Our offense doesnt need Lynch, Graham or Rawls

dbn

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tims4wins said:
Really interesting (and important) game this week for Seattle. Carolina is coming off a bye, getting Kuechly back, and looking for playoff revenge. Their D should be able to hold up pretty well against Seattle's offense. With the game in Seattle I generally like the Hawks in this one but this could be a total dogfight - low-scoring, defensive battle. Really excited for this one on Sunday.
 
With the Cardinals looking like the real deal, GB being GB, the Falcons and Panthers off to hot starts (and favorable schedules), and the NFC East in shambles, the 6th spot in the NFC playoffs is still pretty wide open, so even a Seattle loss likely wouldn't put them out of that race. But a loss would definitely further diminish any slim chance they have of hosting a playoff game, especially if Arizona goes into Pittsburgh and wins. But an Arizona loss and a Seattle win would close the gap significantly. Huge swing week.
 
Of course, this early in the season "playoff odds" should be taken with a grain of salt larger than Peyton Manning's forehead, but it can be kind of fun to look at them anyway, even if the numbers seem a bit, well, unreliable. DVOA playoff odds have SEA at 47% to make the playoffs. 
 
Also:
The Patriots are at 99.3%. A GB v NE Super Bowl is at 21.4% SF has the second highest % of the first pick, at 19.4%, behind HOU (20.3%) and ahead of DET (18.0%); MIA is 4th at 10.4%.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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DanoooME said:
 
So who do you think did it?  Russell Wilson?  Kam Chancellor?  Michael Bennett?  I want to hear this theory.
Are you sure you're not a Patriots fan? You have a complex like you're a Patriots fan.

Chill out.
 

DanoooME

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Kenny F'ing Powers said:
Are you sure you're not a Patriots fan? You have a complex like you're a Patriots fan.

Chill out.
 
So I need to put a smiley face after all of my sarcastic posts now??
 
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Given the general disarray that has taken hold in Seattle, have the Niners brought enough order to their professed chaos to have a reasonable chance in their Thursday night contest?
 

DJnVa

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1918stabbedbyfoulke said:
Given the general disarray that has taken hold in Seattle, have the Niners brought enough order to their professed chaos to have a reasonable chance in their Thursday night contest?
 
 
Not if Carlos Hyde is gimpy.
 
 

tims4wins

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Blown 4th quarter leads in last 5 losses including 2 score leads vs. the Pats and Panthers and a 3 score lead vs. Cincy. Would have been another 2 score lead vs. Detroit if not for the blown call.
 

Oil Can Dan

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So is this really fallout from Quinn leaving?  Or was Byron Maxwell the secret to everyones success?  How did such a dominant unit turn so ugly?
 

wibi

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Oil Can Dan said:
So is this really fallout from Quinn leaving?  Or was Byron Maxwell the secret to everyones success?  How did such a dominant unit turn so ugly?
 
Quinn leaving hurt but it shouldnt have hurt this badly.  I honestly have no clue why they are playing so poorly on the defensive side but they have surrendered 141 points through 6 games in 2015 versus just 125 points in all of the 2014 regular season.  Additionally they have had 4th quarter leads in 5 of the last 7 games and blown every single one of those leads. 
 
Reports are that on the last TD play (seen in this link to the all-22 feed  https://streamable.com/xzwv ) there were two defensive calls that came in from the side line which is evident when watching Earl Thomas not drop into the proper zone. 
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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I just saw a pretty stunning statistic that suggests some serious room for positive regression. Seattle has scored TDs on only 28.57% of red zone trips this year.  That is just unfathomably bad.  There might be some real underlying issues with coaching or personnel but that's still so low as to be completely unsustainable.  Even an average NFL offense converts in the low to mid 50s.  Seattle hasn't been great in this respect in the past but they haven't been awful either (53% in 2013 and 51% in 2014).
 

Marciano490

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Morgan's Magic Snowplow said:
I just saw a pretty stunning statistic that suggests some serious room for positive regression. Seattle has scored TDs on only 28.57% of red zone trips this year.  That is just unfathomably bad.  There might be some real underlying issues with coaching or personnel but that's still so low as to be completely unsustainable.  Even an average NFL offense converts in the low to mid 50s.  Seattle hasn't been great in this respect in the past but they haven't been awful either (53% in 2013 and 51% in 2014).
 
They should trade for a large pass catching target for Wilson.  Someone with a big body and good hands who can help bring up that red zone efficiency.
 

soxhop411

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Seattle Seahawks running back Fred Jackson wrecked his sports car while drag racing teammate Marshawn Lynch ... TMZ has learned.
The accident happened right near the team's practice facility outside Seattle, and according to witnesses Jackson and Lynch were racing down a straight away on a public street ... as they left practice. Fred was in a black Corvette and Marshawn in a red Dodge Charger.
We're told Jackson lost control and smashed into a a larger planter box, and then a stop sign. Several other players, including Richard Sherman, stopped at the accident scene and attempted to help Jackson out of the car.
Police showed up, but we're told Seahawks staffers showed up and took Jackson back to the team facility -- and Lynch drove off, uninjured. It's unclear if Jackson suffered any injuries.
Story developing ...

Read more: http://www.tmz.com/2015/10/20/marshawn-lynch-drag-race-fred-jackson/#ixzz3p9s09Cxa
 
 

singaporesoxfan

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Morgan's Magic Snowplow said:
I just saw a pretty stunning statistic that suggests some serious room for positive regression. Seattle has scored TDs on only 28.57% of red zone trips this year.  That is just unfathomably bad.  There might be some real underlying issues with coaching or personnel but that's still so low as to be completely unsustainable.  Even an average NFL offense converts in the low to mid 50s.  Seattle hasn't been great in this respect in the past but they haven't been awful either (53% in 2013 and 51% in 2014).
I wrote this in the NFL game thread but Seattle is tied (with Denver!) for last in the league with 1.5 offensive TDs per game. For comparison, Jacksonville was last in the league in 2014 with 1.5 offensive TDs per game.
 
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Kind of hard to say this, given that the team just came a MALCOLM-BUTLER-BEING-AWESOME from winning back-to-back Super Bowls, but Seattle seems like they can't handle prosperity.

Edit: being dumb and crazy
 

tims4wins

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Mugsy's Walk-Off Bunt said:
Kind of hard to say this, given that the team just came a MALCOLM-BUTLER-BEING-AWESOME from winning back-to-back Super Bowls, but Seattle seems like they can't handle prosperity.

Edit: being dumb and crazy
I think they get overconfident with multi score leads - as in, we're the best defense on earth, no offense can score two TDs in a quarter against us. So they lose their edge a bit and other teams take advantage
 

soxhop411

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Chris Daniels ‏@ChrisDaniels5  2m2 minutes ago
Photo of #Seahawks RB Marshawn Lynch at scene of crash near Hawks HQ, Courtesy Jason Hellervik  @king5seattle
 

Marciano490

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So, is anything coming out of this drag racing nonsense or not?  Seems to have disappeared as a story.
 

wibi

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Marciano490 said:
So, is anything coming out of this drag racing nonsense or not?  Seems to have disappeared as a story.
 
It was determined to not be drag racing but just Fred Jackson driving like an idiot.  At least thats what the Police said before they closed the case. 
 

pokey_reese

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Marciano490 said:
So, is anything coming out of this drag racing nonsense or not?  Seems to have disappeared as a story.
Report that I read said they weren't drag racing, everything was denied, Jackson just lost control of his car.
 

Marciano490

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Glad to hear it; Lynch is one of my favorite non-Pats, and for some reason I always had a soft spot for F Jax.
 

wibi

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Mugsy's Walk-Off Bunt said:
It'll be interesting to see how quickly TMZSPN will be to buy this new angle on the story.
 
They've already doubled down on the drag racing claim
 

DanoooME

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After scamming that Dallas game, they are now 4-4 heading into the bye, then 3 straight home games against Arizona, San Francisco and Pittsburgh.  All winnable and would go a long way into taking back the division, especially the AZ game.
 

DanoooME

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And out of nowhere, all of a sudden the Seahawks defense is 2nd in total yards/game with 284.9 (to Denver - with 261.1 yds/gm - only 2 teams under 300)  and 3rd in total points/game with 17.5 (behind Denver's 16 and Minnesota's 17.4).
 
My call is they end up passing everyone in both of those categories by the end of the year and retain their title as #1 defense in the league.
 

BernieRicoBoomer

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DanoooME said:
And out of nowhere, all of a sudden the Seahawks defense is 2nd in total yards/game with 284.9 (to Denver - with 261.1 yds/gm - only 2 teams under 300)  and 3rd in total points/game with 17.5 (behind Denver's 16 and Minnesota's 17.4).
 
My call is they end up passing everyone in both of those categories by the end of the year and retain their title as #1 defense in the league.
 
What do you think in terms of record though?  I think they finish something like 10-6 with losses @ Arizona and maybe Minnesota.  May be enough to take the division...Arizona has Green Bay and Cincinnati left I believe.
 

coremiller

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DanoooME said:
And out of nowhere, all of a sudden the Seahawks defense is 2nd in total yards/game with 284.9 (to Denver - with 261.1 yds/gm - only 2 teams under 300)  and 3rd in total points/game with 17.5 (behind Denver's 16 and Minnesota's 17.4).
 
My call is they end up passing everyone in both of those categories by the end of the year and retain their title as #1 defense in the league.
 
Yards are a little misleading.  Seattle is still (only) 7th in DVOA.  They've faced a very weak slate of offenses so far -- 28th hardest.  They have almost no chance of catching Denver to three-peat as #1 DVOA defense, as Denver's defense has been historically good so far (-36.0% vs. -7.0% for Seattle).  Denver has the 4th best defense rating through 8 weeks of the season since data exists for DVOA (which goes back to 1989).
 

tims4wins

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So I still don't know if this team is good, although I think they are pretty good and I wouldn't want to face them in the playoffs.

Random note: Russ Wilson still hasn't won a game in which he needed to score 26 points or more to win (0-10)
 

TarHeel87

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Hadn't seen this posted yet

Seahawks are waiving WR Chris Matthews, source says. Had 109 yards and a TD in the Super Bowl. Only four catches this season, though.
 

DanoooME

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Dano and wibi, what's the explanation for the falling off the cliff drop in production? Can't be just not lining up across from Arrington every game.
He hardly plays. He gets 22% of the snaps at WR. There must be some reason like he just didn't perform in practice, but he was only the 4th or 5th WR behind Baldwin, Kearse, Lockett, and Lockette/Richardson. With them liking having 2 TEs that can catch both in the game (Luke Willson gets 35% of the offensive snaps), there just isn't room for him.

The fact that they promoted WR Kevin Smith from the practice squad doesn't bode well for Matthews' performance on offense or on special teams.
 

wibi

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Dano and wibi, what's the explanation for the falling off the cliff drop in production? Can't be just not lining up across from Arrington every game.
What I've read from reports is that Matthews would give up on balls and wasnt that agressive.
 

edmunddantes

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He hardly plays. He gets 22% of the snaps at WR. There must be some reason like he just didn't perform in practice, but he was only the 4th or 5th WR behind Baldwin, Kearse, Lockett, and Lockette/Richardson. With them liking having 2 TEs that can catch both in the game (Luke Willson gets 35% of the offensive snaps), there just isn't room for him.

The fact that they promoted WR Kevin Smith from the practice squad doesn't bode well for Matthews' performance on offense or on special teams.
Hey, he did recover the onside kick in the NFC Championship game. /snark
 

dynomite

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Fantastic article. Thanks for posting.

That 2003 Bucs season was insane, and reminds me a bit of this Seahawks season -- the Seahawks feel like they're a few plays away from being 2-7 or 7-2.

Edit: agreed about the Bears, but he seemed to be starting in the 90s.
 
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loshjott

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I'm surprised he didn't include the 1985 Bears. In 1986 and 1987 they were upset at home by Washington in their opening playoff game. The 1986 team was 14-2, only a game off from 1985.
 

DanoooME

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It's a win, even against the lowly Niners, so the Hawks get back to .500 and will see if they can finally get over the hump against the Steelers at home.

Then it's @Minnesota (which will be tough), @Baltimore (who is falling apart), home against Cleveland and St. Louis (both winnable) and finish @Arizona (hopefully with the division still on the line, which could have had a better chance except fuck you Cincinnati).

Either way, the playoffs are still in play. It's a matter of going 6-0 or 5-1 down the stretch to pretty much guarantee a spot. 4-2 and things get dicey, so they need to win this week and beat one of MN or AZ on the road. Of course, the way they've played this year, nothing is guaranteed.

The Minnesota game could be really be a playoff game for a wild card spot. Unless Atlanta continues its swan song.