2014 FA: Building 19 Opened for Bizzness

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Tony C

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Jed Zeppelin said:
 
It would still be nice to have somebody who can give Jones and Nink a breather every once in a while.
 
Buchanan showed flashes before getting benched for failing to keep contain -- perhaps he'll take a step forward. Am happy to get Allen if that happens and certainly agree a rotation would be preferable, but also happy with the pass rush as it was last season and suspect that Collins will make it even better.
 

Super Nomario

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Ed Hillel said:
 
With the additions of Revis, Browner, and the return of Mayo, I think there's a very good chance we'll see significantly more of that from the combination of Collins and Mayo. Plus you have Kelly coming back and possibly the presence of Zombie Armstead. I certainly wouldn't mind addressing both edge and inside in the draft, but I think that high motor pass-rusher on the outside is really the last piece to the puzzle.
They might blitz a little more, but it's not a sustainable way to get pressure, especially against teams / QBs that know what they're doing. Kelly and Armstead are wildcards (if they are healthy and make the roster), as is Chris Jones, who had 5 sacks in his first 5 games and just 1 after that.
 
I've made this point in the draft thread, but I think the ideal fit is someone like Ra'Shede Hageman or Stephon Tuitt who can play end in a three-man front or 3-technique in a 4-man front. It gives them the option to switch between 3-man and 4-man fronts, switch up who's rushing and from where (Ninkovich can drop into coverage while Collins rushes, for instance) and provides more pass rush on passing downs.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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Super Nomario said:
They might blitz a little more, but it's not a sustainable way to get pressure, especially against teams / QBs that know what they're doing. Kelly and Armstead are wildcards (if they are healthy and make the roster), as is Chris Jones, who had 5 sacks in his first 5 games and just 1 after that.
 
I've made this point in the draft thread, but I think the ideal fit is someone like Ra'Shede Hageman or Stephon Tuitt who can play end in a three-man front or 3-technique in a 4-man front. It gives them the option to switch between 3-man and 4-man fronts, switch up who's rushing and from where (Ninkovich can drop into coverage while Collins rushes, for instance) and provides more pass rush on passing downs.
I agree with this logic. I'd love them to grab a Hageman with their 1st and then the best available interior OL in the second. Use the draft to rebuild in the trenches a bit.
 

MarcSullivaFan

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Super Nomario said:
They did a pretty good job converting pressure into sacks, but the pressure wasn't there consistently. PFF ranked them 31st in pass rush. Greg Bedard, who did his own count of pressures, disruptions, and hits for MMQB, ranked the Pats 20th in his "Pressure Points" stat. That fits with what my eyes told me
 
I agree that the improved secondary will help the pass rush, but I also see the pass rush as one of the major areas they need to improve this offseason - both depth at the edge and someone who can get pressure up the middle.
I don't have access to PFF, so I can't comment, but it seems a little curious that they devised the pressure points system, which puts the Pats at 20 and rank them 31 by another measure. Also, fwiw, the pressure points system does not seem to have any opponent adjustments.

I recognize that sacks are not an accurate measure of pass rush generally, but I'm skeptical that a team that's top 5 in sacks is in the bottom half of the league in pass rush efficiency.

I think they can certainly stand to improve the pass rush, and add some depth, but I see more pressing needs at TE, the interior DL, and the interior OL.
 

Devizier

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I'd imagine that a reproducible way to measure a team's pass rush would be avg. opponent time from snap to throw.
 
That obviously has it's own flaws (if you have horrendous coverage, no one will take long to pass) but would be a nice thing to know in the context of sacks, pressures, etc.
 

Reverend

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Devizier said:
I'd imagine that a reproducible way to measure a team's pass rush would be avg. opponent time from snap to throw.
 
That obviously has it's own flaws (if you have horrendous coverage, no one will take long to pass) but would be a nice thing to know in the context of sacks, pressures, etc.
 
You'd have to find some way to control for opposing QB's average throw times because of the unbalanced schedules.
 

mpx42

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Right - the Patriots for example are going to have very low average throw times because of their quick passes, wide receiver screens, etc, whereas the Buccaneers last year would have pretty long average throw times, since they were pretty obsessed with throwing it deep.
 

Devizier

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Reverend said:
 
You'd have to find some way to control for opposing QB's average throw times because of the unbalanced schedules.
 
That would be pretty easy, of course. Just measure the data for everyone and you can normalize after. I'd be surprised if this isn't already done.
 

SeoulSoxFan

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Our friend Doug Kyed continues to add a bit of analysis in his tweets:
 

@DougKyedNESN Third-down back is important in NE's offense. Team needs two "lead" backs and two pass-catching backs. Why they signed Washington last year.
 

@DougKyedNESN No need to pay top $ for that reserve 3rd-down back, but wise to sign a vet or spend a late-round pick on a guy that can sit behind Vereen.
 

@DougKyedNESN I really like Vereen's potential, heflashed it last year. But those smaller third-down backs have a tendency to get hurt. Vereen included.
 

@DougKyedNESN I like Bolden more as a backup "lead" back than in that third-down role. He would probably agree.
And more importantly:
 

 


@DougKyedNESN Yes. RT @JoshLuckett: @DougKyedNESN they will definitely draft a back aren't ridley and Vereen in contract years
 
 

SMU_Sox

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Re running backs and the draft..
 
This is my assessment as well:
 

The 2014 draft class of running backs is short on star power, which is the reason for it being considered one of the weaker position groups in this draft. That isn’t an entirely fair assessment, however, as it is a really deep class of running backs. 

We have only one running back graded in the first two rounds (Ohio State’s Carlos Hyde), but 14 running backs have grades in Rounds 3-5. Moreover, there is a wide range of backs for teams to choose from -- power backs, backs whose games are built on agility and acceleration and hybrid slot-receiver types. 
 
 
You're going to find a lot of skilled RB's in this draft class but not many who have the full package. But if you need a power back and a speed/receiving back there will be plenty to choose from.
 

SeoulSoxFan

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Lol. This new cold war between Denver and NE is getting out of hand. Per Scefter:

Neither team nor player's agent will confirm, but Broncos are expected to sign former Steelers WR Emmauel Sanders, per league sources.
Could Welker be cut?
 

triniSox

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I think that's a really good move by Denver. Sanders will be able to help replicate Decker's production albeit in different ways. Denver's offense just became a little harder to defend. 
 
So when do we sign Moreno?
 

dcmissle

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Just posted the same in receiver thread. I'll see you a Sanders and raise you a Britt. I just want to see the SIOP.
 

rodderick

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triniSox said:
I think that's a really good move by Denver. Sanders will be able to help replicate Decker's production albeit in different ways. Denver's offense just became a little harder to defend. 
 
So when do we sign Moreno?
 
Don't know about that. Decker was very good in the redzone, I can't see Sanders duplicating his TD production.
 

triniSox

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rodderick said:
Don't know about that. Decker was very good in the redzone, I can't see Sanders duplicating his TD production.
Good point about the redzone production. The way I see it is that a WR like Sanders can't be as easily jammed/pressed at the line of scrimmage like Sherman did to Decker so it helps in that regard. 
 

Dogman

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SeoulSoxFan said:
Lol. This new cold war between Denver and NE is getting out of hand. Per Scefter:


Could Welker be cut?
 
 
Despite all signs that Welker would never come back to NE, if he was cut I would hope some serious thought would be had to bringing him back because...
 
He knows Denver's playbook.
 

Granite Sox

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Dogman2 said:
Despite all signs that Welker would never come back to NE, if he was cut I would hope some serious thought would be had to bringing him back because...
 
He knows Denver's playbook.
But can he remember it?

#whatsmyname?
 
M

MentalDisabldLst

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@rapsheeet got me this am too. Texted phragle at 7am fully erect
how is that different from any other day?
 

bankshot1

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triniSox said:
I think that's a really good move by Denver. Sanders will be able to help replicate Decker's production albeit in different ways. Denver's offense just became a little harder to defend. 
 
So when do we sign Moreno?
Lets learn from the SeaHawks.
 
The Pats don't need Moreno to beat the Broncos, they need Morepressure on Peyton.to beat the Broncos. And Peyton will cooperate in his own demise.
 

triniSox

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Agreed about more pressure. I don't see them ponying up Allen cash though. Apparently he balked at what Ware accepted. I have suspicions they'll be in on Ealy or even Shazier in the draft
 

rodderick

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bankshot1 said:
Lets learn from the SeaHawks.
 
The Pats don't need Moreno to beat the Broncos, they need Morepressure on Peyton.to beat the Broncos. And Peyton will cooperate in his own demise.
 
Honestly? I don't think Manning was under that much pressure in the Super Bowl. Sure, the pass rush got there at key times, but I though he was under a lot less duress than Brady was in the AFCCG, for instance. I think Seattle's physical coverage screwed up his timing and intimidated his receivers more than anything. I also want the Pats to make some signings to improve the pass rush, but I don't think that is absolutely necessary to beat Denver, nor do I believe pressure was the main component of Seattle's dominant defensive performance in the Super Bowl.
 

vadertime

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triniSox said:
Agreed about more pressure. I don't see them ponying up Allen cash though. Apparently he balked at what Ware accepted. I have suspicions they'll be in on Ealy or even Shazier in the draft
 
Rolando McClain wants to make a comeback.  Maybe trade a 5th or 6th rounder to Baltimore for his rights.
 

bankshot1

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rodderick said:
 
Honestly? I don't think Manning was under that much pressure in the Super Bowl. 
HEH
 
I guess we must have watched a different game.
 
Peyton under pressure makes less than optimal choices. That's why he usually finds a way to lose against good teams in the post-season.
 

triniSox

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I think it's a combination of both. Manning went to his "pressure-beater" plays like quick screens, bubble screens etc. but Seattle showed they could tackle (and ferociously at that). That made him hold the ball longer and the pressure got there at times.

Side note: it's amazing how high quality NFL analysis takes places on the BBTL forum now. Kudos to everyone who built it up. The premier NEP forum now IMO
 

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IMO Manning and his receivers were under pressure all SB.  He didn't have the adequate time to attack the SeaHawks deep. IIRC a greater % of his passes in the SB were shorter than he typically throws.
 
But the original-larger point was the Pats have relied on more on offense than defense to win, but I think we've learned that defense tends to win deep in the post-season
And if I had a choice of adding another offensive asset vs a defensive assets, I'd add defense. I think an improved pass-rush would be hugely complimentary to what appears to be a very strong secondary.  
 

BoSoxFink

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@jerrythornton1: The Pats are very close to signing WR Brandon LaFell. Let's just say I know a guy who knows a guy. But book it #PatriotsTalk
I don't know how reliable Jerry Thornton is but he says the above. He's the guy that comes on to talk patriots with Felger and Mazz weekly and he thinks he's funny but he isn't at all.
 

Reverend

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As it has been pointed out elsewhere, a pass rush might not have helped the Patriots against Denver last year because the receivers were getting open so quickly Manning was getting the ball off very fast.

Coverage is obviously expected to be very different this season, but I bring it up to emphasize the complementary nature of the parts, and also how it relates to match-ups.

Edit: what I mean in bringing this up is that there were games last year where it's not clear that it even made that much sense to try to bring pressure (although obviously you try to keep the offense honest) because they weren't going to get there anyway, which demanded more assets in position to cover and affected schemes. I think this is going to be a very different defense and not just because of the personnel. I think SuperNomario may well be right, though, that a good interior rusher could make it basically awesome.
 

Super Nomario

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MarcSullivaFan said:
I don't have access to PFF, so I can't comment, but it seems a little curious that they devised the pressure points system, which puts the Pats at 20 and rank them 31 by another measure. Also, fwiw, the pressure points system does not seem to have any opponent adjustments.
The Pressure Points system isn't PFF, it's Greg Bedard at MMQB. So you have two independent sources (Bedard and PFF) both calling the pass rush below-average.You're right that neither adjusts for opponent, but I haven't looked into how that would affect things. Eyeballing it, the Pats played 5 of the 7 best teams in ASR, but the 3 divisional opponents were all in the bottom 6, so I'm guessing it's about a wash.
 
MarcSullivaFan said:
I recognize that sacks are not an accurate measure of pass rush generally, but I'm skeptical that a team that's top 5 in sacks is in the bottom half of the league in pass rush efficiency.
I think the secondary was above-average last year for most of the year, leading to coverage sacks that weren't necessarily the product of a strong pass rush.
 
MarcSullivaFan said:
I think they can certainly stand to improve the pass rush, and add some depth, but I see more pressing needs at TE, the interior DL, and the interior OL.
Agreed those are the top three needs, though I think "interior DL" is best fixed with someone who can help get after the QB. 
 
rodderick said:
 
Honestly? I don't think Manning was under that much pressure in the Super Bowl. Sure, the pass rush got there at key times, but I though he was under a lot less duress than Brady was in the AFCCG, for instance. I think Seattle's physical coverage screwed up his timing and intimidated his receivers more than anything. I also want the Pats to make some signings to improve the pass rush, but I don't think that is absolutely necessary to beat Denver, nor do I believe pressure was the main component of Seattle's dominant defensive performance in the Super Bowl.
Seattle's physical coverage did screw up Denver's timing, but the other key part of that equation is that the pressure was able to get there quickly so the offense couldn't get their timing back. The downside of press is that if / when the receiver can beat the initial jam, he can get open deep down the field. That's especially true against Seattle, which has big corners who run 4.6 40's. Having a good pass rush is integral to what Seattle is doing defensively. A guy like Browner can be torched if he's playing behind a sub-par pass rush. That's why the Seahawks went out and signed a bunch of DL last offseason.
 

Reverend

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Super Nomario said:
A guy like Browner can be torched if he's playing behind a sub-par pass rush. That's why the Seahawks went out and signed a bunch of DL last offseason.
Did you see Browner's YAC numbers per PFF (SSF posted them elsewhere)? They seem absurdly low. Can you offer any insight into how that was managed for a guy who would seem to be not as fast as some and not great in lateral quickness?

Could those just be a function of lack of WR separation due to the pass rush? Or what kind of other scheming help stuff does the rush allow for? Or what...?
 

Super Nomario

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Reverend said:
Did you see Browner's YAC numbers per PFF (SSF posted them elsewhere)? They seem absurdly low. Can you offer any insight into how that was managed for a guy who would seem to be not as fast as some and not great in lateral quickness?

Could those just be a function of lack of WR separation due to the pass rush? Or what kind of other scheming help stuff does the rush allow for? Or what...?
I wouldn't read too much into it. He only allowed 20 receptions (partially because he missed basically half the year), so we're dealing with a really small sample size. His 2011 and 2012 YAC figures are more normal. They're still low, probably partially because he's a good tackler, partially because the Seahawks in general are good tacklers, and largely because the Seahawks don't give up much short stuff.
 

Super Nomario

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MarcSullivaFan said:
The link you posted says that PFF helped them design the system. Which, given that Bedard isn't a stats guy, I took to mean that Bedard gave them a concept and they designed the system.
Thanks, I missed that.
 
It looks like PFF's role is they provide the hits and hurries (more methodology detail here: http://mmqb.si.com/2014/01/03/nfl-playoffs-purple-chippers/2/).
 
It looks like the Pats suffered because of those hits and hurries, and also because they had a lot of "other" sacks. They define "easy" sacks above (it looks like they changed the terminology from "easy" to "other" at some point) as:
An official sack that falls into one of the following categories: coverage sack (quarterback held the ball longer than 3.3 seconds because the coverage was so good); unblocked, usually because of a schemed blitz; offensive miscue, such as the quarterback tripping after getting stepped on by an offensive lineman; or garbage-time sack, which we have defined as a sack when the offense is trailing by more than two scores with four minutes or less remaining in the game.
 
That fits with my impression: a lot of the sacks were coverage sacks.
 

E5 Yaz

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soxhop411 said:
From @Rapsheet: Sanders verbally accepted deal with Chiefs, execs crying foul http://t.co/EvOGJn5his
 
From the link
Agent Steve Weinberg, on behalf of the receiver, accepted a deal with the Chiefs in principle, according to one team source. Weinberg then engaged in negotiations with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, according to another source involved in the process.
While shopping the Chiefs offer to the Bucs, Weinberg never explained that he had already accepted the terms of Kansas City's offer. Later in the night, Sanders' agent had agreed to terms with the Broncos, which is where he is currently headed. Sanders and Weinberg also rankled the 49ers by agreeing to visit, then blowing it off.
"This was one of the worst situations in modern football negotiations," one executive involved said. "Totally wrong. This needs to be stopped."
 
I can picture the BB death stare had he gotten this guy in a room
 

SeoulSoxFan

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That article is pretty damning. I was wondering why Pats had cooled so much on Sanders. Could have been because of Weinberg's shenanigans.
 

soxhop411

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If KC feels they were screwed they can file a grievance against the agent

CBA gives Chiefs the ability to file grievance against Sanders, agent for bad-faith negotiations http://t.co/LneyVMZKbE
 

E5 Yaz

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Not expecting #Chiefs to say anything publicly on this Sanders situation, but don't be confused. They're plenty mad
 
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