2013 Jets: Rex back for 2014

soxfan121

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SeoulSoxFan said:
Now that Jets are out of the playoffs, a quick survey:
  • If you were the Jets GM, would you fire Rex?
  • As a Pats fan, would you like Rex be fired?
  • Regardless of our opinions, will Rex be fired?
For the record, I've voted yes, no, and no.
 
No. 
Yes.
Yes.
 

Tony C

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SeoulSoxFan said:
Now that Jets are out of the playoffs, a quick survey:
  • If you were the Jets GM, would you fire Rex?
  • As a Pats fan, would you like Rex be fired?
  • Regardless of our opinions, will Rex be fired?
For the record, I've voted yes, no, and no.
 
-yes, only logical thing to do -- can't keep Rollercoaster Rex in charge, not to mention that the offense needs attention.
-no
-yes: Idzik isn't a softie and doesn't seem to be a fool.
 

Shelterdog

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I think Idzik fires Rex and it's the wrong move: Rex is imperfect but I think on the whole he's above average so chances are you don't upgrade.  But Idzik has a big problem: if the Jets have a bad 2014--and they might--and Rex is still the coach Idzik is in danger of losing his job along with Rex.
 

steveluck7

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SeoulSoxFan said:
Now that Jets are out of the playoffs, a quick survey:
  • If you were the Jets GM, would you fire Rex?
  • As a Pats fan, would you like Rex be fired?
  • Regardless of our opinions, will Rex be fired?
For the record, I've voted yes, no, and no.
Yes
No
Yes
Rex has shown the ability to coach the Jets right to the middle of the pack, which is probably the best place for them to be... for us Patriots fans.  That's why i voted no on #2.
 

SeanBerry

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As a Jets fan, my problem isn't with the coaching staff. It's the people on this team that play offense. It's laughable how bad they are. With the cap space and roster flexibility, I am curious to see what Idzik does. I'd be happy with another season of Rex...as long as Marty Mornhinweg is the OC.
 

crystalline

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steveluck7 said:
Yes
No
Yes
Rex has shown the ability to coach the Jets right to the middle of the pack, which is probably the best place for them to be... for us Patriots fans.  That's why i voted no on #2.
I have the exact same rationale but the exact opposite vote on 1. Maybe that is a sign of our relative optimism - ... or of risk tolerance.

Rex is likely in the top half of NFL head coaches. If you fire him, you may find the next Belichick. Or you may find the next Mangini, Jim Schwartz, Jason Garrett, Caldwell, Tice, Singletary, Sparano, Wade Phillips, or Dick Jauron.

As Berry said- I'd upgrade the offense and worry about the coaching staff next year. In the meantime they should be scouting head coaches they would really want next time they make a change (as Ainge did with Stevens and Kraft with Belichick). Idzik better have at least a three year time horizon- if he has to make moves to save his job after one year the Jets will never be any good.
 

Tony C

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Of course a bad team has many issues other than the coach. And Rex is absolutely very good in some ways, and not at all a bottom feeder like Schwartz. That makes the decision tougher since he's not at all a zero. But is he the right coach to help fix the problems the Jets have? No...he's not. Can he help elevate his QBs, be they Sanchez, Smith or whomeve? No,  the Jets are nuts if they put that player in Rex's hands. Do they even want his input given how he whiffed on Sanchez as his boy? He basically has given no indications of being able to improve in areas in which he is weak. And being strong in some elements isn't enough.
 

OCST

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BigSoxFan said:
It all begins and ends with QB play. Between Geno, Sanchez, Favre's corpse, and the rest of the slop that has thrown passes for this franchise the past few decades, I am simply amazed at the constant futility of finding a decent QB. Yes, the coaching and personnel has been weak as of late but the real issue is that you have no chance of doing shit in the NFL if you're always hoping that your QB doesn't fuck things up. It works in rare occasions when a defense is elite but if it's not...hello mediocrity.
See, e.g., Bears, Chicago; Browns, Cleveland
 

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Like seeing the Jets win today. Worse draft pick. Kind of a miracle this team has 7 wins. In a way this season worked out great for the Pats - aside from that loss
 

SeoulSoxFan

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SeoulSoxFan said:
The two divisional losses at Buffalo and at home to Miami are real killers. And for upcoming games, I'll stick with the original prediction (updated W-L record):
  • vs Oak: W (6-7): Raiders travelling to Jersey for an early 1pm game is just the ticket to break the losing streak
  • at Car: L (6-8): Another road blowout loss seems inevitable
  • vs Clev: W (7-8): Weeden is not beating the Jets on the road
  • at Miami: L (7-9): Miami always plays well vs. Jets at home, playoff-hunting or not
So a lot closer to my original camp prediction of 6-10 than the more optimistic 9-7 record that happened right after the Falcons win. 
 
7-9 should net somewhere in the 11th~16th pick range, where Idzik will be pressured to either pick another QB, or at a skilled position. 
 
A middling record, no playoffs, and a genuine QB crisis is a pretty good early gift from Santa.
 
So Jets are right on schedule with a 7-8 record, and can finish at best 8-8.
 
Regardless of Miami's PO status, this team does not travel well. 1-6 on the road with lone win coming against the woeful Atlanta early on. 
 
As I mentioned elsewhere, 7-9 finish is pretty much the best scenario Pats fans could have wished for. Out of the PO, Rex status in doubt, and out of the running on one of the top 10 picks. 
 

SeoulSoxFan

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Jets are shut out of the Pro Bowl, which is unfair as Wilkerson was a very deserving candidate. 
 
Barnwell picks him as his PB DE: http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/10199548/bill-barnwell-pick-nfl-all-pro-team
 
Wilkerson is not quite at the same level as Watt, but he's pretty clearly the best player on the league's best run defense. (Go ahead and fire Rex Ryan.) Wilkerson's ability to fire through gaps allows him to make weekly plays in the backfield and irreparably alter running plays that quickly become losses. His ability to disrupt blocking schemes and hold his own at the line of scrimmage creates opportunities for the likes of David Harris to clean up behind him. Wilkerson is that rarest of creatures: an underrated player from a New York team.
 

SeoulSoxFan

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http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/12/28/report-jets-could-announce-rex-is-staying-on-sunday/
 
Jets may announce Sunday that Ryan will stay on as coach. 
 
I cannot be more enthusiastic about this.
 
He's a flawed HC whose defense has arguably gotten worse each year -- not because his defensive coaching has deteriorated, but he has not been able to replace the production of Revis and other Mangini/Tannenbaum players. 
 
With Geno having a long way to go to be a viable starting QB, ghastly point difference (-110, fifth worst in the league), and a pythag win record of 4.5-5.5, I think Ryan got bailed out by a couple of calls and a relatively healthy roster this year.
 
However, the future of the Jets does not rest with RR but with Idzik, and how he spends his cap dollars come offseason with Sanchez, Holmes, Cromartie, and others finally coming off the books. He also needs to hit at least a triple in 2014 come draft day to make up for 2013. 
 

soxfan121

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Anyone giggling or making fun of the Jets for keeping Rex forfeits any right to bitch about the Patriots offensive performance(s) next season against the Jets. It would have been better for us Pats fans had the Jets fired the very good defensive coach that is Rex Ryan.
 

dcmissle

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Agreed. He coached his ass off this year. Idzik squashed the boastful crap. Assuming he has control over the grocery buying and does a decent job at that, Idzik will have a slimmed down and very talented HC who is very likely to be better than any of the possible successors.
 

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soxfan121 said:
Anyone giggling or making fun of the Jets for keeping Rex forfeits any right to bitch about the Patriots offensive performance(s) next season against the Jets. It would have been better for us Pats fans had the Jets fired the very good defensive coach that is Rex Ryan.
Can we giggle when the Jets offense is garbage again and they win 7 or 8 games again? He's a head coach, not just responsible for the defense. I think everyone agrees that he's a very good defensive coach, I just don't see it in terms of him running the whole team.
 

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Ralphwiggum said:
Can we giggle when the Jets offense is garbage again and they win 7 or 8 games again? He's a head coach, not just responsible for the defense. I think everyone agrees that he's a very good defensive coach, I just don't see it in terms of him running the whole team.
 
Very few coaches in the league are brilliant on both sides of the ball. Hell, there's few enough who are even great on one side of the ball. And almost nobody is going to look like a good offensive coach with the likes of Sanchez and Geno at QB.
 
Regardless, if the Jets were going to fire Rex after going 8-8 with this team, they should have just fired him before the season started, because no reasonable person could have looked at this roster and expected better.
 

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soxfan121 said:
Anyone giggling or making fun of the Jets for keeping Rex forfeits any right to bitch about the Patriots offensive performance(s) next season against the Jets. It would have been better for us Pats fans had the Jets fired the very good defensive coach that is Rex Ryan.
 
And they kept the very shitty offensive coach that is Rex Ryan.
 

NatetheGreat

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If the Jets don't give Rex what he wants, I'm pretty certain another organization will. Houston, for example, would jump at the chance to lock him up for the next few years.
 

Tony C

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Ralphwiggum said:
Can we giggle when the Jets offense is garbage again and they win 7 or 8 games again? He's a head coach, not just responsible for the defense. I think everyone agrees that he's a very good defensive coach, I just don't see it in terms of him running the whole team.
 
Precisely. the argument that he did well with this club is both true and irrelevant -- he's a great coach to get a 6-10 team to 8-8. He's not a coach to sustain a winning organization. This is excellet Pats news that they've re-hired a .500 coach (with mega payrolls).
 

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Good decision by the Jets, IMO. He gets the players to play hard and scraped eight wins from a bad team.

Hes not an elite coach, but he's above average (41-38, 4-2 in the postseason, so record says above average too). If they can pair a lucrative extension with loosening his control of the offense its a good move. Definitely a good number of coaches that deserve to be shit canned more than Rex
 

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I dunno. On the surface he coaxed overperformance out of the team, but the "fire him" argument is pretty easy to make. Two of those wins were luck and three others were by a TD or less. They lost 6 games by 13 points or more. They played their best games at the end of the season which is encouraging but they were against Cleveland, Oakland and Miami. Last year they lost their final three so I'm not sure he gets the best out of his team when they need it but rather that they're just inconsistent. 
 
His defense is consistently good but that is mitigated some by them spending all their first-round picks on it -- they lost Revis but they have a lot of talent there still. He hasn't been able to get any improvement out of Hill and managed to alienate Holmes (which is certainly partially Holmes' fault, but I think a better coach gets something out of him, doesn't sign him in the first place or cuts his ass). There was the whole preseason thing with Sanchez, too.
 

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If they were guaranteed to go sign a top ten head coach I'd think firing him was fine. Given they could end up with a total squid (looking at you NFC North coaches except maybe Trestman), keeping him is good I think. Either playing out the one year left or extension with an OC hire and shift of responsibilities is fine.
 

steveluck7

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Adding to the "looks good on the surface but..." notion. The "OMG, you can't fire Rex, he made b2b AFCCG's", argument always irked me, he got into the playoffs in both of those years thanks to flukes. One year, they beat the Curtis Painter led Colts to get into the playoffs. The other year, against DET, their kicker got hurt and Suh attempted (and missed an XP), Jets sneak into the playoffs.
Not to mention that those 2 teams were made up largely of Mangini leftovers.
I've said it before, he's shown the ability to do no more than coach his team to the middle of the pack, I don't mind as a Pats fans but i don't get why he gets such a long leash.
 
Also, if spending all of your 1st round capital on defense is your strategy, the apparent whiff on Millner has to take some shine off of the "he can drafft D" argument
 

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Tony C said:
 
Precisely. the argument that he did well with this club is both true and irrelevant -- he's a great coach to get a 6-10 team to 8-8. He's not a coach to sustain a winning organization. This is excellet Pats news that they've re-hired a .500 coach (with mega payrolls).
 
I agree with your overall point but I think you're overselling him badly. How did he coach Lavonte David to commit a personal foul on Smith to give the Jets that game? How did he coach the refs to make an egregiously weak call in OT against the Pats (a call that hasn't been made since) while the league admitted they should have made the same call against the Jets but didn't?
 
This was a 6-10 team, really. Their pythag had them at 5.5 wins. They stunk this year. The only reason they didn't play to that record is some luck that Rex had nothing to do with. If David doesn't commit a PF then Rex doesn't have a job this morning.
 

Tony C

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I agree, but more a matter that even giving him the benefit of the doubt he's still a .500 type of coach. I do respect him and absolutely acknowledge that it's frustrating as hell to see his defenses sometimes slow down the Pats (though the Pats usually win and have had a few blowouts). But, in re getting the benefit of the doubt, what I don't get from the people who think a .500 coach is as high as a franchise should aim is that the excuse is his QBs. But the QB problems can and should be put directly on Ryan's bill.
 

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Ralphwiggum said:
Can we giggle when the Jets offense is garbage again and they win 7 or 8 games again? He's a head coach, not just responsible for the defense. I think everyone agrees that he's a very good defensive coach, I just don't see it in terms of him running the whole team.
Exactly.

With reservations about how he and BB would coexist, I would love to have Rex as the Pats' defensive coordinator. Their styles are different and both are strong willed, but it would be an interesting pairing and there's no denying that Ryan can coach defense.

As a head coach, the only thing positive I can say about him other than he's always had good defensive units is that his players seem to love him and want to play for him.

But he's often foolish, has written checks his team couldn't cash and that placed undue burdens on his players, shown limited interest or aptitude for the offensive side of the ball and pointed fingers at his assistant coaches when things went poorly. As Ralph wrote, Rex just has not demonstrated that he has the wherewithal to manage an entire team.

Bottom line, I am delighted that Rex is going to be back, hope that the Jets give him a long extension and reserve the right to complain loudly if the Jets' D stymies the Pats' offense, notwithstanding 121's edict to the contrary.
 

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The tough thing about evaluating Rex is we don't have much of a clue about what his role actually was in team construction and player evaluation.  Rex was pretty consistent in publicly praising Sanchez well into the 2012 season but it would sure make a big difference in how I evaluated Rex if he privately thought differently and just played the good solider because you have to with the QB position.  Did Rex think using all the firsts on defense was a good idea? Who decided to extend Holmes or to trade for Tebow? 
 

Tony C

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Supposedly he went with Tanny to work him out and was all in. The tattoo would seem to support that...:)
 

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Tony C said:
Supposedly he went with Tanny to work him out and was all in. The tattoo would seem to support that... :)
 
It sure does,the question for me is when did he want to get that tattoo removed.  I'd feel really differently it was week 15 of 2012 than if it was week 3 2011.
 

Ralphwiggum

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I think overall Rex is a mediocre coach and his record reflects that. Too much is made of the successes he had in the two playoff runs, it is nice and all but talk about SSS. He can coach defense and give him decent personnel on that side of the ball and the D is going to be anywhere from good to great. On offense, he's the head coach and the buck stops with him. Obviously he was saddled with less than great QB play but did he do anything to make that unit better?

They were -97 in points this year which was about the same as the Browns and only the Texans and Jaguars were worse in the AFC. Getting the team to play for him when his back was against the wall from a coaching perspective is to me Classic Rex. That is what he's good at. Sustained above average performance not so much.

Sure the Jets could do much worse but as a coach of a team in the Jets division I am losing no sleep over Rex keeping his job. The Jets will be pesky while he is there for sure but they will be inconsistent as well.
 

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The bizarre thing about Rex's jets in the inconsistency.  The Jets are so damn good some of the time-- in particularly against the Pats and in the playoffs--and then so godawful at other times. I'm not just making an anecdotal observation: their FO VAR rankings have been (prior to yesterday's game) 30th in 2013, 29th in 2012, 25th in 2011, 28th in 2010 and 27th in 2009, meaning that they've been one of the most inconsistent teams in the league every single year Rex has been there. 
 

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Shelterdog said:
The bizarre thing about Rex's jets in the inconsistency.  The Jets are so damn good some of the time-- in particularly against the Pats and in the playoffs--and then so godawful at other times. I'm not just making an anecdotal observation: their FO VAR rankings have been (prior to yesterday's game) 30th in 2013, 29th in 2012, 25th in 2011, 28th in 2010 and 27th in 2009, meaning that they've been one of the most inconsistent teams in the league every single year Rex has been there. 
 
Which, of course, is statistically incredibly unlikely to be the result of random variation. That's really interesting--good spot.
 

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I wonder if that is characteristic of a team that relies on its defense and has a turnover-happy QB. So on days where they protect the ball and the defense can match up well, they can dominate, but if the other team can exploit their defensive weaknesses (say, has multiple dangerous WRs so that Kyle Wilson or a safety has to cover someone, or something) and Smith / Sanchez makes a few bad plays, they get blown out.
 
On the other hand, it seems anecdotally that he does get the team more charged up for some games and others they seem flat. That probably can't be proven, but that would reflect pretty poorly on Rex.
 

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Shelterdog said:
The bizarre thing about Rex's jets in the inconsistency.  The Jets are so damn good some of the time-- in particularly against the Pats and in the playoffs--and then so godawful at other times. I'm not just making an anecdotal observation: their FO VAR rankings have been (prior to yesterday's game) 30th in 2013, 29th in 2012, 25th in 2011, 28th in 2010 and 27th in 2009, meaning that they've been one of the most inconsistent teams in the league every single year Rex has been there. 
That is interesting, thanks. 
 

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Tony C said:
I agree, but more a matter that even giving him the benefit of the doubt he's still a .500 type of coach. I do respect him and absolutely acknowledge that it's frustrating as hell to see his defenses sometimes slow down the Pats (though the Pats usually win and have had a few blowouts). But, in re getting the benefit of the doubt, what I don't get from the people who think a .500 coach is as high as a franchise should aim is that the excuse is his QBs. But the QB problems can and should be put directly on Ryan's bill.
 
It wasn't just the QBs this year. The defense gave up 387 points and had only 15 takeaways. Both are pretty terrible. For comparison the Pats had 29 takeaways and allowed 338 points.
 

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Shelterdog said:
The bizarre thing about Rex's jets in the inconsistency.  The Jets are so damn good some of the time-- in particularly against the Pats and in the playoffs--and then so godawful at other times. I'm not just making an anecdotal observation: their FO VAR rankings have been (prior to yesterday's game) 30th in 2013, 29th in 2012, 25th in 2011, 28th in 2010 and 27th in 2009, meaning that they've been one of the most inconsistent teams in the league every single year Rex has been there. 
Isn't it simply that Sanchez and Smith are turnover machines and they seem to do it in bunches? If the Jets are careful with the ball, they are competitive. The Jets turnover ratio since 2010, +9, -3, -14 and -14. If they had a caretaker QB like Hasselbeck, Orton or Cambell, they would be far better off.
 

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Shelterdog said:
The bizarre thing about Rex's jets in the inconsistency.  The Jets are so damn good some of the time-- in particularly against the Pats and in the playoffs--and then so godawful at other times. I'm not just making an anecdotal observation: their FO VAR rankings have been (prior to yesterday's game) 30th in 2013, 29th in 2012, 25th in 2011, 28th in 2010 and 27th in 2009, meaning that they've been one of the most inconsistent teams in the league every single year Rex has been there. 
I would guess this is generally true of teams with good defenses and crappy offenses (especially turnover-prone Os); if the game's close, you can hang in there, but if it starts to get out of hand and you have to throw to catch up, it's not going to end well. They're 3-21 in Rex's tenure when they turn the ball over 3+ times; that's about half the winning percentage of the rest of the league (12.5% vs 23.2%).
 

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Shelterdog said:
The bizarre thing about Rex's jets in the inconsistency.  The Jets are so damn good some of the time-- in particularly against the Pats and in the playoffs--and then so godawful at other times. I'm not just making an anecdotal observation: their FO VAR rankings have been (prior to yesterday's game) 30th in 2013, 29th in 2012, 25th in 2011, 28th in 2010 and 27th in 2009, meaning that they've been one of the most inconsistent teams in the league every single year Rex has been there. 
 
I bet he would make a great college coach.
 
If I was a big program I would give him a look.  Texas would be a good place for him
 

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TomRicardo said:
 
I bet he would make a great college coach.
 
If I was a big program I would give him a look.  Texas would be a good place for him
 
Only issue is that his teams have been prone to let downs so much historically. If he coached Texas they'd beat Oklahoma and Baylor and then lose to someone crappy.
 

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Super Nomario said:
I would guess this is generally true of teams with good defenses and crappy offenses (especially turnover-prone Os); if the game's close, you can hang in there, but if it starts to get out of hand and you have to throw to catch up, it's not going to end well. They're 3-21 in Rex's tenure when they turn the ball over 3+ times; that's about half the winning percentage of the rest of the league (12.5% vs 23.2%).
 
Maybe, but just eyeballing it Carolina and the Cardinals have fairly low VARs this year (13 and 5). What's weird about the Jets is they play tough against the Saints and Pats but then they got demolished by the Titans and Bills.