16 Days in January—Determining Trade Deadline Activity

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

My comment on Langford wasn't meant to be even mildly controversial. He does some things well, many other things poorly and the net result is effectively a below average player at present but one who seems to be improving. The main point is not about Langford per se - ideally they are getting much more current production from that rotation slot. If there is reasonable, Wyc-friendly way (just being realistic) to improve their depth, you would figure that Brad is all over it. The book on Langford's career has yet to be written but his current production doesn't argue for more minutes.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Matt Moore update, BOS plans to go under tax, have two offers on the table for Schroder Bucks and Bulls if they want them
View: https://twitter.com/HPbasketball/status/1490364972991332354?t=l8JkH2VDyCCQE-WV2Fy8wQ&s=19

 

[BigSoxFan]

Matt Moore update, BOS plans to go under tax, have two offers on the table for Schroder Bucks and Bulls if they want them
View: https://twitter.com/HPbasketball/status/1490364972991332354?t=l8JkH2VDyCCQE-WV2Fy8wQ&s=19

Sounds about right. Nothing will happen outside a minor deal, if that.

 

[NomarsFool]

As a pure salary dump, you'd think one of those teams looking for a back-up center might be interested in Freedom. He has his limitations, of course, like all back-up centers do. But, he also has some talent and can provide some useful boards and buckets off the bench in short stretches.

 

[Jimbodandy]

Aren't we supposedly under the tax if JB doesn't pass the 5 or so guys ahead of him and get an AS nod? If so, what's the benefit of dumping DS or EKF?

Turning either into a rookie contract guy who didn’t hit yet, that I understand. Saving more of Wyc's money...chemistry issues...

 

[BigSoxFan]

Aren't we supposedly under the tax if JB doesn't pass the 5 or so guys ahead of him and get an AS nod? If so, what's the benefit of dumping DS or EKF?

Turning either into a rookie contract guy who didn’t hit yet, that I understand. Saving more of Wyc's money...chemistry issues...

All I can think of is it gives you a little more flexibility to make another add, if needed. My guess is Schroder doesn’t get dumped in a vacuum.

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

In reading these articles about trade rumors, it really feels like the combination of new blood in NBA front offices plus the play-in feature means trades aren't being negotiated in public as much. Why attempt to turn up the heat if you don't even know if want a deal or not. I wouldn't be surprised if we get no Celtics deals of note nor will I be shocked if we get something big.

As @mcpickl notes, the wildcard here is that the Cs have draft capital.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Aren't we supposedly under the tax if JB doesn't pass the 5 or so guys ahead of him and get an AS nod? If so, what's the benefit of dumping DS or EKF?

Turning either into a rookie contract guy who didn’t hit yet, that I understand. Saving more of Wyc's money...chemistry issues...

Jaylen makes it 2.8M, otherwise we're a bit under 1M over, but the problem is that he has a decent chance at making it and you don't know until after the deadline

 

[JM3]

On Simmons/KOC pod from this weekend someone floated JB for Hali/Barnes/1st which is kind of interesting.

Also, they both think Harden to Philly is happening.

 

[Jimbodandy]

Jaylen makes it 2.8M, otherwise we're a bit under 1M over, but the problem is that he has a decent chance at making it and you don't know until after the deadline

Ah got it. That makes sense, thanks.

So the hope would be some third year player who's blocked or in someone's doghouse who was picked low enough that he makes like Grant Williams money. Maybe he can be turned into depth eventually, while he gives tax flexibility regardless.

 

[Jimbodandy]

On Simmons/KOC pod from this weekend someone floated JB for Hali/Barnes/1st which is kind of interesting.

Also, they both think Harden to Philly is happening.

So was it Crespo on Simmons' pod or nighthob?

 

[ZMart100]

Jaylen makes it 2.8M, otherwise we're a bit under 1M over, but the problem is that he has a decent chance at making it and you don't know until after the deadline

So my understanding of the cap situation (using Spotrac data), and I'm very open to corrections, is that we are currently $2,777,853 over the tax. However, that includes a $1,446,428 in likely-to-be-earned bonus for Jaylen Brown to make the all-star team. Assuming he doesn't, the C's would be $2,777,853 - $1,446,428 = $1,331,425 over the tax.*

So Bol + cash** to OKC would leave the Cs $829,727 under the tax, which would be enough to get a prorated min salary on the buyout market. Of course OKC probably wants to wait to see if they can get a better offer for their space under the threshold. I doubt they will, though I could see Utah sending Ingles, cash and a pick to reduce their tax payment by $26m. Again, the Jazz probably want to wait to see if they can get a useful player for Ingles' expiring deal too.

I see no need to salary dump DS to get under the tax at present. It is useful to have the option in case a) OKC tries to extort a first round pick out of a Bol trade or b) OKC does find a better use for their space.

*Still technically vulnerable to about another million in unlikely bonuses if he makes MVP, DPOY and one of the All-NBA teams.
** The Cs used some cash in the Hernangomez trade, but I think they have enough left to cover Bol.

 

[ifmanis5]

Nash is the GM now?
View: https://twitter.com/ESPNNBA/status/1490424116989599744

Steve Nash said the Nets won't be trading James Harden at the trade deadline.

 

[Cellar-Door]

So my understanding of the cap situation (using Spotrac data), and I'm very open to corrections, is that we are currently $2,777,853 over the tax. However, that includes a $1,446,428 in likely-to-be-earned bonus for Jaylen Brown to make the all-star team. Assuming he doesn't, the C's would be $2,777,853 - $1,446,428 = $1,331,425 over the tax.*

So Bol + cash** to OKC would leave the Cs $829,727 under the tax, which would be enough to get a prorated min salary on the buyout market. Of course OKC probably wants to wait to see if they can get a better offer for their space under the threshold. I doubt they will, though I could see Utah sending Ingles, cash and a pick to reduce their tax payment by $26m. Again, the Jazz probably want to wait to see if they can get a useful player for Ingles' expiring deal too.

I see no need to salary dump DS to get under the tax at present. It is useful to have the option in case a) OKC tries to extort a first round pick out of a Bol trade or b) OKC does find a better use for their space.

*Still technically vulnerable to about another million in unlikely bonuses if he makes MVP, DPOY and one of the All-NBA teams.
** The Cs used some cash in the Fernando trade, but I think they have enough left to cover Bol.

The Celtics are going to plan as if Jaylen makes his bonus, no chance that they assume he doesn't get it

 

[ZMart100]

The Celtics are going to plan as if Jaylen makes his bonus, no chance that they assume he doesn't get it

Where do you think he would be on the list of replacements? I would have to think at least 5 players would be ahead of him, possibly more. They could plan as if he were going to make MVP and DPoY too, but at some point it's a waste of resources.

 

[NomarsFool]

The Celtics are going to plan as if Jaylen makes his bonus, no chance that they assume he doesn't get it

I am not sure. I don’t think they trade away Schroder for nothing just to make sure they are under the tax. Odds point to Brown NOT making it, so I think it depends on what options are available to get under the tax. If we are talking about trading a second and detritus to get under the tax, yes, I can see them doing that. But, if the only deal available makes the team worse, I think they will gamble he doesn’t make the All Star Game.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Where do you think he would be on the list of replacements? I would have to think at least 5 players would be ahead of him, possibly more. They could plan as if he were going to make MVP and DPoY too, but at some point it's a waste of resources.

Somewhere between 1 and 3 among non-bigs probably? So 2-5 overall. Not unreasonable to think that there are 2-3 replacements picked, maybe more this year.

Also... What is the waste really? Everyone has said since he signed that unless Schroder was great he probably wouldn't finish the season on Boston.

Trading your 8th man to guarantee you meet a major objective makes way more sense than trading seconds and money for a 75% chance of achieving it. Also, makes you flexible to make other moves knowing that you can also move the other guys to clear more tax room, for late trades or for buyouts.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

My comment on Langford wasn't meant to be even mildly controversial. He does some things well, many other things poorly and the net result is effectively a below average player at present but one who seems to be improving. The main point is not about Langford per se - ideally they are getting much more current production from that rotation slot. If there is reasonable, Wyc-friendly way (just being realistic) to improve their depth, you would figure that Brad is all over it. The book on Langford's career has yet to be written but his current production doesn't argue for more minutes.

How far below they typical 8th or 9th man is Langford, really? My sense is that you're not finding particularly good players that for down, ut maybe I am wrong.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

Brian Robb, speculating about the Schroeder offers:

https://www.masslive.com/celtics/2022/02/what-are-dennis-schroder-trade-offers-for-celtics-from-bulls-and-bucks.html

He assumes they won't move him just to get under the tax. (I agree with this - as bad a fit as I think he is he does fill a role).

As a tax team, Milwaukee will need to send out at least $4.7 million in any deal for Schroder. On a roster that’s full of veterans for the defending champions, there are limited appealing options for Boston on that front that the Bucks are likely considering moving. A young guard like Donte DiVincenzo ($4.7 million) should hold appeal for Boston but the C’s would need to sweeten the pot quite a bit with draft compensation on top of Schroder for the 25-year-old sharpshooter who has struggled in his return from an ankle injury. Bobby Portis, George HIll and Grayson Allen all make around $5 million but only Hill is a name on that list that could be moved straight up for the point guard and I’m not sure how much interest C’s would have in the 35-year-old, although he is signed through next season and Stevens has always been a big fan.

There’s a lack of appealing moving assets here for Boston that are likely in play for Schroder.

Troy Brown Jr. ($5.1 million) is the obvious one but he hasn’t done much of anything after four years in the league. He’s good for salary matching but that’s no real value from Boston’s standpoint. The Celtics are in all likelihood pushing for a young guard with value like Coby White ($5.8 million) but that’s not going to happen without the Celtics sweetening the pot with more talent or draft compensation on their own. Elsewhere? There are a bunch of cheap salaries (Tony Bradley, Matt Thomas, Alonzo McKinnie) that could be added up to make the money work but none of those guys have much value. Boston probably isn’t interested in doing a 3-for-1 either since they don’t have the roster spots for it without subsequent trades.

Barring more names getting involved here from both sides, it’s tough to see Stevens biting here unless the Celtics are getting plenty of second-round draft compensation as part of the deal.

 

[the moops]

I would hope BOS would throw in a protected future first or more for DiVincenzo and/or White assuming they had some insight on their ability to resign.

And honestly, George Hill at 4 million a year for this and next year wouldn't be the worst thing. Unless of course his huge decline in 3pt % is real.

 

[benhogan]

So was it Crespo on Simmons' pod or nighthob?

The never happening Brown fake trade crew has lined up like this:

I've been Hali/Barnes for JB
Hob wants SGA for JB
HRB wants Murray/Keldon Johnson for JB

I'm not sure where Crespo falls on these, he probably signs off on all 3.

and credit to you for being a steadfast Brown stan for years

 

[Jimbodandy]

The never happening Brown fake trade crew has lined up like this:

I've been Hali/Barnes for JB
Hob wants SGA for JB
HRB wants Murray/Keldon Johnson for JB

I'm not sure where Crespo falls on these, he probably signs off on all 3.

and credit to you for being a steadfast Brown stan for years

I think that someone floated the Hali/Barnes for Brown like 2 months ago. Must have been Crespo.

And thanks. I might end up being proven wrong on him, but I'm glad that a lot of the possible fake trades of the last couple of years didn't materialize.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Also... What is the waste really? Everyone has said since he signed that unless Schroder was great he probably wouldn't finish the season on Boston.

Who ever said that? I don’t recall this ever being a discussion. We were talking about what his best role would be to make a deep playoff run this year.

 

[benhogan]

I think that someone floated the Hali/Barnes for Brown like 2 months ago. Must have been Crespo.

And thanks. I might end up being proven wrong on him, but I'm glad that a lot of the possible fake trades of the last couple of years didn't materialize.

yea, we all like to dream up elaborate trades but the best path is to build around Jaylen.

Keep that firm hand on the tiller around here

 

[Cellar-Door]

Who ever said that? I don’t recall this ever being a discussion. We were talking about what his best role would be to make a deep playoff run this year.

Basically everyone who covers the team locally and nationally who knows how the cap works? Lowe, O'Connor, Smith, etc.

 

[PedroKsBambino]

My recollection is the theme actually was initially that it would only be a one-year-only thing. It was only when the Celtics started slow that trading him in-season became the dominant theme (because, as they initially said, there's not a likely path to him being back with Celtics next year)

 

[lexrageorge]

If the Celtics were fighting for and looking up at the 10th playoff spot, trading Schroeder would be a no-brainer, even if the return was minimal. Wyc would never allow Brad to push such a team into the luxury tax.

Celtics now have a decent shot at avoiding the play-in altogether. Until last night, Schroeder hadn't done much to justify his spot in the rotation, but maybe Ime can still find a way. Still, Wyc is not going over the threshold, so Brad will need to find a way to prune payroll, and if a compelling deal for Schroeder did come along, Brad could jump.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Basically everyone who covers the team locally and nationally who knows how the cap works? Lowe, O'Connor, Smith, etc.

They were saying this in the preseason? I don’t recall hearing anyone imply that Schroder was a half season rental until the deadline. If it was said I missed it.

 

[benhogan]

Basically everyone who covers the team locally and nationally who knows how the cap works? Lowe, O'Connor, Smith, etc.

Moving DS has been discussed since the season began poorly.

BUT it was based on two things:
1. getting a longer-term real asset like Schroder+ for Coby White OR a protected 1st round pick
AND
2. they were terrible, below .500 and they were going nowhere

The title of this thread, started a month ago, was based on where this team would be on FEB 10.
The Celtics are healthy and coming around, no need to deal DS when they can move Bol, Dozier, etc

IME is primarily using his top 8 (maybe 9 if Langford starts getting minutes).
10-15 will be available in combo deals to rebuilders or contenders for assets/salary cap situations.

You just don't dump your 3rd leading scorer when in 6th and climbing for a 2nd round pick. They'd be the laughingstock of the league and the Celtics don't roll like that.

Jeez we have bitched endlessly for numerous seasons about not having a bench scorer. We finally get one, on the cheap and now we should dump him

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

You just don't dump your 3rd leading scorer when in 6th and climbing for a 2nd round pick. They'd be the laughingstock of the league and the Celtics don't roll like that.

Just to echo this . . . .

While I certainly understand the financial part of this year's roster, as CD has mentioned repeatedly, while DS often times hasn't played great he certainly has been very important to some wins this year. This last run has been due to playing basically 8 guys. Dumping one of those 8 guys can't be a good look to the Jays. Plus, at least some of the money could be recouped by a long playoff run.

I think people were pretty understanding last year when DA dumped Theis to avoid the luxury tax. I can't imagine it would go over well this year, especially when it looks like the East is wide-open.

 

[PedroKsBambino]

I have no idea how PBS is thinking about it, but I personally have moved from "better to dump DS, get some asset, and play the kids" to "need to break-even or add talent wise at deadline" over the last few weeks. They are playing better---not just the record, but also the effort and the consistency and at both ends quality of exeuction. It's good to compete and a benefit of the Hernangomez deal is they still should be able to dodge the tax by stapling a pick to Bol Bol etc. if there's not a neutral asset trade.

My preferred path is to add an asset to DS to bring back a Coby White-type player who is truly additive, but I realize that might be tricky.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Just to echo this . . . .

While I certainly understand the financial part of this year's roster, as CD has mentioned repeatedly, while DS often times hasn't played great he certainly has been very important to some wins this year. This last run has been due to playing basically 8 guys. Dumping one of those 8 guys can't be a good look to the Jays. Plus, at least some of the money could be recouped by a long playoff run.

I think people were pretty understanding last year when DA dumped Theis to avoid the luxury tax. I can't imagine it would go over well this year, especially when it looks like the East is wide-open.

I think there is a case both ways. Yes you could hypothetically get under with other moves, but those are mostly moves where you are paying something out, DS should bring a return of some kind.

The last run has been 9 guys really, during it Romeo is playing about 9 minutes and DS 18. I think there is a case to keep DS, my point has always been... there is a perfectly fine case to move him too, given that his role has diminished and the team improved.

benhogan keeps harping on "3rd highest scorer", but most of his scoring happened when we were bad. His big game last night means he just narrowly passed from 8th to 7th in scoring over our good streak. He's clearly being heavily role reduced and the results have been better for the team. Keep him... sure. Move him.... sure. He's not going to be a factor in the team making or winning a championship, he's just not that important is my point. If you have the option between paying assets to get under the cap and getting under the cap by moving Schroder and getting somehting back... you should probably do the latter. Assets matter. We just saw Norm Powell go for 2nds and a former 1st who hasn't done anything, LeVert went for a lotto protected 1st and some seconds. Seconds aren't totally worthless.

So I guess my overall feeling is... Schroder isn't likely to help us win a title this year, and he's not going to help us win a title, or have any trade value next year, so moving him should be one of the stronger considerations if the other option is giving up 2nds to move the injured guys.

 

[Devizier]

I think the Celtics basically do nothing at the deadline. With the play in keeping so many teams alive you’re basically stuck with picking up malcontents and washed guys from scrub teams like HOU and OKC.

The off-season makes more sense for a trade. If the Celtics can’t pull off a third star, I could see them looking at an overpaid extension guy like Brogdon (using Horford as the ballast).

 

[lovegtm]

I think the Celtics basically do nothing at the deadline. With the play in keeping so many teams alive you’re basically stuck with picking up malcontents and washed guys from scrub teams like HOU and OKC.

The off-season makes more sense for a trade. If the Celtics can’t pull off a third star, I could see them looking at an overpaid extension guy like Brogdon (using Horford as the ballast).

Also a fair number of S&T targets this offseason, with Horford as the ballast. A lot of top 25-50 guys who are ballhandlers suddenly become a lot more appealing when slotted in next to the Jaylords, to the point that I'd feel fine overpaying someone a bit. Lonzo and Brogdon are exactly the types of recent S&Ts I'd be looking to do.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

I think that someone floated the Hali/Barnes for Brown like 2 months ago. Must have been Crespo.

And thanks. I might end up being proven wrong on him, but I'm glad that a lot of the possible fake trades of the last couple of years didn't materialize.

Yeah, I floated that around a few months back.
Floated Huerter for Smart a year back and a few months back. Apparently that was a discussion too.

They all do the same thing we do. Match salaries.

 

[128]

View: https://twitter.com/BrianTRobb/status/1490723001679101959

 

[Eddie Jurak]

That makes no sense outside of a bigger deal. (But it probably just the Celtics gauging the valiue of their players.)

 

[NomarsFool]

All depends on what we get back, right? If we are talking about a deal for John Collins, I'd absolutely include Grant in that - because JC would really eat up any minutes available for GW. But, including him in any deal has to bring back a 4 for that we see as building block.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

That makes no sense outside of a bigger deal. (But it probably just the Celtics gauging the valiue of their players.)

Sell high.

All depends on the return.

 

[benhogan]

Sell high.

All depends on the return.

maybe in an effort to get Christian Wood or Jerami Grant?
Grant/JRich would be the guys to sell high (3pt% sustainable?)

JRich was added for free and Grant was useless last season, PBS could take a victory lap if he turned those two into a cusp star

 

[PedroKsBambino]

Why would either of those teams want that pair, though, at least relative to other assets?

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Why would either of those teams want that pair, though, at least relative to other assets?

Don't know about JRich but Grant just turned 23. Maybe some teams think he has more upside and can play a much bigger role than he does in Boston. That's the only reason I can think of to trade him. The offer is too good to refuse.

 

[benhogan]

Why would either of those teams want that pair, though, at least relative to other assets?

I was just replying to CC. If Brad wants to sell "high", JRich/Grant would be those candidates. Most people around here wanted Grant punted into the sun last summer. They both have increased their value

Brad obviously would need to staple on draft assets to interest rebuilders like Houston/Detroit, that's what they covet the most.

 

[pjheff]

If the Celtics can’t pull off a third star, I could see them looking at an overpaid extension guy like Brogdon (using Horford as the ballast).

If Simmons goes for Harden, could Washington be persuaded to move a down year Beal for Al/Schroder/picks? I don’t think he’s a 1, but he can be a 2, and maybe he could be convinced to play defense by Tatum and Udoka.

 

[Cellar-Door]

If Simmons goes for Harden, could Washington be persuaded to move a down year Beal for Al/Schroder/picks? I don’t think he’s a 1, but he can be a 2, and maybe he could be convinced to play defense by Tatum and Udoka.

Short answer... no.

Long answer, they'd just offer him his max, he'd sign it then they could look for deals down the road. Even if they put him on the block now, they'd get much better deals (like Picks and actual expirings, and/or players who have value in a rebuild)

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

My guess is that any trade for a "star" like Beal starts with the other team asking for Jaylen Brown. Whether Beal or anyone who is offered as the incoming for Jaylen actually gets dealt for a player of his caliber is another question. It may not be the case for each team but a barrier for a trade like this seems like GMs/front office personnel who absolutely have to win a deal to keep their seats. That isn't the case in Washington where their GM got an extension earlier this season but its hard to imagine NBA writers, blogcreatures, Wizards fans and the Sons Of Agent Zero blessing any Boston trade that doesn't have Brown coming to DC.

 

[Jimbodandy]

My guess is that any trade for a "star" like Beal starts with the other team asking for Jaylen Brown. Whether Beal or anyone who is offered as the incoming for Jaylen actually gets dealt for a player of his caliber is another question. It may not be the case for each team but a barrier for a trade like this seems like GMs/front office personnel who absolutely have to win a deal to keep their seats. That isn't the case in Washington where their GM got an extension earlier this season but its hard to imagine NBA writers, blogcreatures, Wizards fans and the Sons Of Agent Zero blessing any Boston trade that doesn't have Brown coming to DC.

The Sons of Jeff Ruland may feel that way, but there's no planet where that phone doesn't get immediately hung up on this end. Jaylen has had a bit of an off year from 3, and his TS is still way better than Brad's.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

I was just replying to CC. If Brad wants to sell "high", JRich/Grant would be those candidates. Most people around here wanted Grant punted into the sun last summer. They both have increased their value

Brad obviously would need to staple on draft assets to interest rebuilders like Houston/Detroit, that's what they covet the most.

I don't follow the logic here. Who are we getting for shipping out our 2 best bench players AND draft picks?

 

[NomarsFool]

I don't follow the logic here. Who are we getting for shipping out our 2 best bench players AND draft picks?

You don't get a star for that package, but you get a starting caliber player (think Harrison Barnes or Jerami Grant).

I feel like the NBA is really like two different seasons, almost requiring two different approaches to building a team. In the playoffs, the starters can play 40 minutes plus - so you really don't need guys 9 and 10 for sure, and maybe not really #8. The regular season, that's a different story - as there are a lot of games and a lot of injuries.

Thinking about the Celtics specifically, the question is - what's our best 5?

Rob Williams
Jason Tatum
Jaylen Brown
Marcus Smart

The question is, who is that 5th guy? Right now, we have Horford, Grant, Richardson, and possibly Schroeder as our 5th guy. If you could package two of those to get a better player - you become a better playoff team, I think.

 

[benhogan]

I don't follow the logic here. Who are we getting for shipping out our 2 best bench players AND draft picks?

sorry for the confusion, misunderstanding here

Crispo was talking about "selling high" and the 2 guys that fit that description for the Celtics are JRich and Grant.

I wasn't really proposing a fake trade

As the biggest Grant stan here, I believe he can get better. Want Brad to sign him in the offseason