Who would the Padres want though?
Personally, I think Duran, if legit, is worth more than a flawed AA starter. If he's not, I'm not sure the Padres want him. O'Neill has long-standing health questions but a high upside, and Refsnyder is a platoon bat (who is currently injured.)
But I'd be surprised if there was a match between the Sox and Padres for O'Neill or Refsnyder.
Duran is (I think quite literally) the only one that they'd be interested in (non Rafaela edition).
We already know that O'Neill is worthless on the trade market - because the Red Sox gave up nothing of consequence to acquire him.
I can't imagine Abreu is either as LH hitters that can hit RHP but not LHP aren't exactly scarce.
Refsnyder is hurt and wouldn't be worth anything anyway.
So the middle point is the rub right. Of course IF Duran is the guy he was in half of last season he's worth far more than Mazur. But nobody gets to know that in advance. But yes, Duran for Mazur is the type of deal I could see working for both sides, plenty of risk on each side of the deal. You'd probably get more than just Mazur for Duran, but he's so difficult to project. Not only do you have the inconsistencies in data for him, but the health issues as well. Really tough player to project.
Is anyone else surprised that SD was able to hold onto it's top 2 pitching prospects (Snelling and Lesko) and still pry Cease from the White Sox?
No, not really, because all three are really freaking good prospects. Thorpe is also the most advanced of the three (and admittedly has the least upside). When you have pitching to trade, you can acquire a lot of things. When you don't, you really can't. Once Baltimore moved DL Hall, they couldn't really come close to the pitching side of the equation, and I don't believe the Yankees could either after moving Thorpe for Soto (nor could the Red Sox). So they'd all have to over pay in terms of hitting prospects (Jones from NY; probably Mayer or Anthony from Boston) to land Cease.
Edith - Truth be told, ChW would probably have no interest in Mayer as I look at it, they already have their own (possibly better - or at least more highly rated) version of Mayer in Colson Montgomery.
I also don't understand why anyone wanted Duvall back or thought that Breslow may have. I think it's just familiarity but he didn't present anything to the Sox that they didn't already have.
Especially if you're one of those that think this year is a lost cause anyhow. And just getting types like him to "flip" at the deadline is a dangerous game to play. Many players may not really like that and it'll bleed down to other players avoiding signing similar deals... .along with the obvious ones- maybe that guy stinks this season, or gets injured in mid July. Everyone here likes to poop on Bloom for not making deals in '22 deadline but pretty much all his tradeable assets were injured or really underperforming.
I agree with this. But I've been saying for a long time that I have (had) literally zero interest in any one year deal to any position player, especially in the OF. Use the sunk year to see what the kids can do. It's why I really don't like having O'Neill on the team in the first place. Remove temptation from Cora to play those guys and see what an OF of Duran, Rafaela, Abreu left to right has. But that ship has sailed, so hopefully O'Neill can be good enough and healthy enough (highly unlikely) to be traded for something better than was given up for him.
But, like you said, dangerous game. Though for the record I poop on the 2022 and 2023 deadline "non moves" equally. They both stunk.
