These are common, minor injuries that every team is dealing with. Histrionicize elsewhere please.
Offseason rumors
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The pitching discussion now has a thread of its own:
https://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/the-frailty-of-the-modern-pitcher.42033/
https://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/the-frailty-of-the-modern-pitcher.42033/
It was reported a few days ago that Kenley will start seeing game time on the 15th.
…and that Martin felt something in the groin area during a bullpen session and was pausing his program for a few days as a precaution.
“I continue to believe the Yankees are more likely to trade for Cease than sign one of the big remaining free agents.” - Joel Sherman
I saw this and immediately thought of this post from the Pitcher thread.
In the meantime, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports that they’ve made a new offer to the White Sox regarding right-hander Dylan Cease. Prior reporting on the talks between the two teams have indicated that the Yankees have refused to include outfield prospect Spencer Jones in any package for Cease, and Nightengale notes that Jones once again is not included in the new offer.
Spencer Jones: 6’6 235 lb., plays OF. Baby Judge?
Edit, complimentary guy to Judge because he bats left.
Edit, complimentary guy to Judge because he bats left.
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I would be bitterly disappointed if Cashman traded Jones for two years of Cease. Fun kid to root for and he could be special.
He's currently ranked 78th to 45th by various systems in all of mLB. I'd be bitterly disappointed if that was all it took to get Cease for two full seasons. I don't know how accurate the reports are but supposedly higher ranked Sox players were tossed out in trade discussions (although to be fair, those reports were all based on what Chicago wanted, not necesarily what was offered).
He is basically Teal - would you trade Teal (and lesser pieces for Cease?)
I would.
I would not. Catchers are hard to find and Cease's window of control doesn't line up with the Sox.
MFY might though, they're pretty significantly invested in this year.
Rankings are nice and all, but I think five years of Jones will probably be worth more to the Yankees than two of Cease. An athletic lefty hitter with some power who fields well and won't cost too much for a while is valuable to the Yankees. The Yankees have been able to develop pitching.
What's their starting rotation? I'm not sure if I'd say the Yankees have been the pitching-development machine that I've been fearing. They've definitely done a nice job getting some mid rotation guys (which is more than I can say from the Sox.... but if things break right for Crawford, Bello, etc.... then I"ll sing a different tune here) but Cease is a guy that you definitely trade an outfield prospect for. They have Judge and presumably are in on Soto enough to intend to sign him long term. Maybe there's an intention to move Soto to first or DH in an extension?
I mean, they hired Matt Blake in Nov 2019 and they have traded/lost 20 pitchers in the last 18 months, they have done a remarkable job cranking them out in the last few years. Two of their 2022 picks played their first professional seasons last year and ended up in the top 100, 1 as the MILB pitcher of the year (Drew Thorpe).
Also, no way do I trade Spencer Jones, he is NY's future CF. Not only is he Judge-sized, but he's somehow one of the fastest runners in baseball, with a peak home to third time last year that was tied with Corbin Carroll (best in MLB).
3 OF positions, 1B, DH, they have room for Judge, Dominguez, Jones, and Soto if they can sign him.
The Yankees farm is deeper than ours.
I would deal Teal in a heartbeat for Cease.
Assuming Teal has no hidden flaws, that's 6 years of what's likely to be a league average starting catcher for 2 years of a pitcher who feasts on first look (interleague) and sub .500 teams? No thanks.
Cease would be a good addition. . .but not at that price.
I would trade Teal and past rights to Bucholz for Cease.
I definitely would not trade Kyle Teel for 2 years of Dylan Cease. Count me out.
The Yankees have a couple of catching prospects. I've been following Ben Rice's career and his bat probably plays in MLB now. He also grew up in Cohasset for what it's worth.
Do you think he can stick at C? I think if Rizzo went out long-term, it's possible he could be next in line at 1B right now.
The words "likely" and "assuming" are doing a lot of work in that sentence. Neither is right IMO.
I just can't parse this. Are you really taking issue with my qualifying Teal as having an uncertain outcome? Because I assure you he does.
Cease has really strong advanced stats but his last 3 seasons give me pause, especially because the White Sox seem to want a kings ransom for his last two controllable years. One elite year, one decent, and than last year with a 1.41 WHIP and almost 80 BB… after another season of almost 80…he’s kinda like Snell, who has high K #’s, lots of walks, and may be an injury waiting to happen w/ all those IP At 28 Yrs old. Is that a guy we really want to give up Teel plus Bleis and others for? I’m saying hard no, there are other young starting pitchers who will materialize over the next 12-18 months that we can only hope this new regime of guru’s will recognize.
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The Rangers are now "in" on cease, which is interesting given Montgomery and his desire to go to the small market town that is the 6th largest urban area in America.
I think his outcome is so uncertain it makes trading him for Cease pretty close to a no brainer.
The Rangers are now "in" on cease, which is interesting given Montgomery and his desire to go to the small market town that is the 6th largest urban area in America.
I wouldn't trade Teel in a package for Cease (but I would give up a lot in general to make the trade work). The basic reason is that it is very hard to find a good catcher. Sure, Teel could suck in the end but its worth rolling the dice. My mind might change if I felt like Cease was the missing piece to get us over the hump, but even after getting Cease we'd still have other holes to fill.
Ken Rosenthal has an article in The Athletic about Cease that mostly talks about the Rangers as a destination. The names that he throws out that would be included in the package are Ezequial Duran, Brock Porter and Jack Leiter.
Not quite sure what the Red Sox equivalent of that would be
Not quite sure what the Red Sox equivalent of that would be
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https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/39726085/padres-finalizing-trade-white-sox-rhp-dylan-cease-sources-say
Looks like a deal is all but done. Im guessing either Lesko or Snelling will be in the deal, Boston doesn’t have the equivalent. Additionally I really wanted Jones in the draft. Bloom passed on both him and Snelling to satisfy his middle infield obsession. But if we’re doing comps based off value I’d consider Raffy closer than Teel, who was considered a top 10 pick.
Looks like a deal is all but done. Im guessing either Lesko or Snelling will be in the deal, Boston doesn’t have the equivalent. Additionally I really wanted Jones in the draft. Bloom passed on both him and Snelling to satisfy his middle infield obsession. But if we’re doing comps based off value I’d consider Raffy closer than Teel, who was considered a top 10 pick.
No one cares but mea culpa here, I have a good track record on this kind of thing but was quite wrong here. it depends a bit on what you think of the return, but I think the White Sox did well.
FWIW, I know the family. The Yankees want him to catch and will probably send him back to AA to get more time behind the plate. There are metrics for everything now and he was actually very well rated on receiving apparently, despite reports to the contrary. The knocks against him are his throwing arm. He was one of those college kids that lost a season so he's old for a prospect. He's not on the 40 man roster, Wells is the only other Catching prospect ranked higher than him.
Thank you! I know some of that, I have posted about him some here in the Yankee forum since his bat blew up last season, this was the most recent one:
https://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/2023-24-yankees-offseason-discussion.40411/page-13#post-5959522
NY has Agustin Ramirez on the 40 man who they like a lot too, I think Rice has a more possible road at 1B than C for NY, but we'll see. Thanks again!
Actually it was about loading money for Roman Anthony. All things being equal I'd rather the Roman.
The top prospect in the Cease trade was a pitcher that came over in the Soto trade. He is 65th in the ESPN rankings - Teel is 61st. The White Sox were supposedly looking for pitching so Boston was not a good match.
Padres gave up their #5, #7, and #8 prospects, 2 pitchers and an OF, and a 29 yr old reliever who made over 50 appearances last year to get Cease.
As are every team that is entertaining trading a starting pitcher with term.
Which of course makes Boston not a good fit for any of them, and is probably why even though Breslow talked a ton about trading for pitching we haven't traded for any pitching. The Sox don't have any to send back.
For those of us (raising hand) that thinks this is more the very beginning of a pretty long rebuild and not nearing the end of one, this is why.
Hopefully this acquisition will make SD re-engage on dealing for an outfielder to see if there is a way to somehow pry pitching prospects from them.
I dunno. So many BIG IF'S for their future: (the short/mid term type)
---If they can get Montgomery that'll lock in one rotation spot for the next 3,4 years
---Bello is signed long term (the "IF" here is his ability to mature into a top rotation starter
---Crawford matures alongside Bello. A few posters here are more bullish on his future than Bello's.
---Do they extend Pivetta
---Can Houck/Whitlock/Winckowski turn into a decent mid rotation guy
---IF Winkelman can cut down on his free passes- I'm bullish on this- he's got great stuff and could see some late season ML action if so and be in the mix for '25.
---IF Giolito can recover (not bullish on this)
That's a pretty good core for the short/mid term future and they have a lot of guys that are 3 years off to build off of. I don't see the future as dire. But if only 2 of those "IF's" happen it's going to be a tough situation. If 3 of the 7 do, they're in decent shape. If 4 do, that's great.
When the hell does Montgomery sign? With whom???? This is crazy!
At this point seems a lock he waits two weeks for opening day so he can avoid the potential QO that would come with a one year opt out deal.
There's just been a ton of turnover in SD in the past two years. The Cease trade makes sense to me, but more as yet-another a GFIN move; they essentially flipped one year of Soto for two of Cease. Hitting for pitching (where they are weaker.) I honestly have no independently formed idea how much they've bled out or restocked the farm in the past 2 years.
Huh, I see it completely differently, and am quite bullish. How did you reach that opinion?
While his lnjury was not good news for this year at all, I think the surgery could pay big dividends going forward. He'll have a significantly strengthened elbow to work with, will be that much farther removed from his personal issues/divorce, and should be highly, highly motivated.
Is there any possibility he does not opt in? If it was TJ, then I think it is a no brainer since he would miss some of 2025. But what is he worth on the open market if he is recovered and can convince teams he is recovered?
I think it is a silly question at $19 million. I think he has to take it. But the track record of post surgery elbow guys is pretty good. And pitching is hard to find. He might not love that $14m club option.
Just ruminating. I think it is a relatively easy choice but I think he gets until late in the year to decide.
I think it is a silly question at $19 million. I think he has to take it. But the track record of post surgery elbow guys is pretty good. And pitching is hard to find. He might not love that $14m club option.
Just ruminating. I think it is a relatively easy choice but I think he gets until late in the year to decide.
For what it's worth, I totally agree that acquiring Montgomery (or any other top half of the rotation starter) would go a long way in making the "rebuild" much shorter. Doubly so if they acquired two of them in any way, shape or form.
I generally subscribe to the theory that when you have so much based of "if" that means you're really not that close.
Case in point -
IF JP Sears' spring training isn't a mirage.
IF Joe Boyle has really learned command.
IF Ken Waldichuk gets healthy and becomes the guy he was in the high minors
IF Mason Miller is a 2/3 starter or an elite closer
IF Alex Wood can go back to being a passable starter
Then Oakland has a pretty good core for the short to mid term as well.
*I'm not in any way saying what you outlined for the pitching staff is impossible. I'm just saying you can make the same case for basically every rotation in baseball, excepting Colorado. But when you have to rely on that many ifs, you're probably looking at a pretty substantial rebuild. Which - by the way - I'm on board with. Now that I think we have a better option leading said re-build.
If he bets on himself, he can pitch for Boston for $18M in 2025, do well, and hit the FA market if he stays healthy and makes aprox 25 starts to get to 140IP. Maybe the Sox offer a QO? But that's the only deterrent. Otherwise he's hoping for a FA deal that's better in 2025 onward. So. . .
1) Age 30 season $18M Boston. Does well. Age 31 season FA. . .what kind of deal does he get?
2) Age 30 Season $18M Boston. Does well or poorly, but sub 140 innings. Age 31 season Boston $14M. Age 32 season FA. . .what kind of deal does he get?
3) Age 30 season optout from Boston, FA with $1.5M in pocket, no pitching track-record what kind of deal does he get?
We have guys here who watch the market and value pitchers much better than I do. But whatever is reasonable to plug into those 3 different deal scenarios will probably dictate his choices.
Soto makes $31 million, Cease makes $8 million so this gets them under the luxury tax and the net loss may not be huge. I have no idea what SD's farm looks like either.
Before the trade Keith Law had them pegged at 18 but Baseball America had them at 6.
Preller does a pretty good job of clearing the cabinets for major league talent and then restocking them.
FWIW, MLB.com had them 4th, before the Cease trade. https://www.mlb.com/news/farm-system-rankings-2024-preseason
They gave up their 3rd ranked starting prospect and 5th overall (per MLB) for Cease, along with the other pieces.
IF the Sox could strike some manner of deal for an OF swap for a starting pitching prospect(s) with San Diego, good targets would be
Adam Mazur (7th)
Ryan Bergert (10th)
Others have mentioned Pauley, but he's probably not realistic at this point as he's expected to break camp with the club and possibly cover 3b as a starter until Machado is ready to play the field.
I think you can negotiate the ability to offer a QO into a deal. If it's that important to him, Boras should be doing that so there's a hope he could be ready for Opening Day.
I think we're past the point of being ready for Opening Day (or the first week even), which is two weeks away. If he signed today and started a game tomorrow, he'd only have two more starts before the season began. That's not enough, unless they intend to piggy back someone with him the first few starts until he's ramped up fully.
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