Brayan Bello signed to a 6 year, $55 million extension

BornToRun

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This is what they should have done with Betts, Bogaerts, and Devers.

Idiots.
Was there ever an indication that Betts or Bogaerts would’ve taken this kind of deal? And does it really matter at this point, anyway? What’s done is done and I think Xander in particular is a non-pay that’s likely to look like a better and better call as time moves on.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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Not much to add other than saying I think this is excellent news.

A win for both the player (whom has set himself, his children and generations of his family up for life). A win for the team that desperately needed one.

Great news.
 

RS2004foreever

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Here's the thing- Strider got 6 years plus a team option, which means one or two additional years of club control. And he's a better pitcher than Bello at the point of signing the contract extension. So it seems likely that the Sox could offer 6 years, club option for a 7th, at a lower value than Strider's contract, with the numbers landing somewhere between Strider and Hunter Greene. (Bello's numbers from last year look a lot closer to Greene's than Strider's stats in 2022.)

Let's go with 6 years, $62 million, with a club option for a 7th year at $21.5 million.
I used to keep track of some of the Rays trades to see how long they yielded players.
2011: Matt Garza traded for players that included Chris Archer (among others)
2018: Chris Archer was traded for Tyler Glasnow, Austin Meadows and Shane Baz.
2022: Austin Meadows is traded for Isaac Paredes.
2023: Isaac Parades hits 31 Homers, and has an OPS of 131. He yielded 4.2 War. Rafael Devers is 2 years older, and posted 3.5 War. Rafael Devers will make $30 million this year. Paredes will make $3.4 million and is not eligible for free agency until 2028.
2023 Tyler Glasnow, after posting a WHIP of 1.08 in 2023, is traded to the Dodgers. The Rays receive RHP Ryan Pepiot, OF Jonny Deluca. Pepiot has had injury troubles, but in 78 innings he's amassed a 2.76 ERA and a 2.50 strikeout-to-walk ratio
2017 Matt Garza retires.
This series of trades is absolutely incredible. None of it happens without the 2014 extension of Archer, which is why the Pirates gave up what they did.
 
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RS2004foreever

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Was there ever an indication that Betts or Bogaerts would’ve taken this kind of deal? And does it really matter at this point, anyway? What’s done is done and I think Xander in particular is a non-pay that’s likely to look like a better and better call as time moves on.
Granting extensions after a players first year is pretty new, but is certainly a trend. The Braves have done this, the Rays did this with Franco and Lowe, and the Padres did it with Tatis. It's why I think high level prospects are even more valuable than they once were.
In Mookie's case I think the Red Sox would have tried to lock him up after his second year - but outside of the Rays (who did that with Chris Archer) no one was that aggressive at the time.
 

chrisfont9

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The Padres outdrew and outwon the Red Sox last year.

X's 4.4 WAR last year would have comfortably led the Sox in that category as well.
All very low bars...
And I guess I should type out "JK" or something. Not being entirely serious. I'm sure the Padres have fans, though I don't know if I have ever met one, even living on the west coast the last 20 years.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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Apparently SJH just wants to be contrarian and pick fights today....
EDIT: addressed below.

I'll post about Bello: extending him like this is a very good sign and I am well pleased by it. The Sox gain an extra year of his services, he gets generational wealth now with the opportunity to let Lex Luthor-style wealth later in his career. This is a Very Good Thing.
 

YTF

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So it looks as though part of the Sox strategy is to try to use up some of the money that they have under their budget/tax this year to save in future years. I think if you're not going to compete, that's actually kind of clever.

MLB is not like the NFL, obviously. You don't carry over extra cap room from year to year. It's effectively use or lose. Given the way baseball contracts work, there is not much you can do to shift. But the Red Sox are actually finding little ways to do it.

You look at this deal and you sort of think that all they really did is give a guy injury protection for several years in exchange to lock up arbitration values against inflation and get one reasonable FA year plus one reasonable option. That's a fair thing to do, and doesn't move the needle much. But the sneaky part is that they've also moved future years payments into this year and next year. Not huge, again, but clever.

Edit -- and by the way if they really did just add $9 million to this year's tax computation I think those who may continue to have been pining for Monty (raises hand) can kind of put their hands down now.
Sadly, with Giolito out I see very little incentive for Montgomery to consider Boston.
 

VORP Speed

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I used to keep track of some of the Rays trades to see how long they yielded players.
2011: Matt Garza traded for players that included Chris Archer (among others)
2018: Chris Archer was traded for Tyler Glasnow, Austin Meadows and Shane Baz.
2022: Austin Meadows is traded for Isaac Paredes.
2023: Isaac Parades hits 31 Homers, and has an OPS of 131. He yielded 4.2 War. Rafael Devers is 2 years older, and posted 3.5 War. Rafael Devers will make $30 million this year. Paredes will make $3.4 million and is not eligible for free agency until 2028.
2023 Tyler Glasnow, after posting a WHIP of 1.08 in 2023, is traded to the Dodgers. The Rays receive RHP Ryan Pepiot, OF Jonny Deluca. Pepiot has had injury troubles, but in 78 innings he's amassed a 2.76 ERA and a 2.50 strikeout-to-walk ratio
2017 Matt Garza retires.
This series of trades is absolutely incredible. None of it happens without the 2014 extension of Archer, which is why the Pirates gave up what they did.
https://delmonyoungtradetree.com/
 

In my lifetime

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This adds just over 9 MM to RS salary for LT purposes. It could be a signal that the RS are passing on Montgomery/Snell and will spend money in other ways. If so, it would make sense to try to get Casas done as well. They might as well spend up to the LT this year and next with the hope of saving money in 4-6 years when they might be closer or over the LT threshold.
 

RS2004foreever

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Going back to Delmong Young makes my head hurt. Young Begat Garza AND Jason Bartlett (who was a ALL-STAR SHORTSTOP).
The whole thing is like a paragraph from Genesis. And the Garza trade - which happened over 13 YEARS AGO - keeps getting worse.

The key is the Rays kept trading players with a couple of years of experience and got back prospects who were better than they guys they traded. They missed on most of the guys they got back.
But the whole line of trades is amazing.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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This adds just over 9 MM to RS salary for LT purposes. It could be a signal that the RS are passing on Montgomery/Snell and will spend money in other ways. If so, it would make sense to try to get Casas done as well. They might as well spend up to the LT this year and next with the hope of saving money in 4-6 years when they might be closer or over the LT threshold.
I think in a few ways they have signaled they are punting. They are definitely time shifting some expenditures by taking on salary this year that will save them in future years. It’s a forward thinking approach. Once they decided to punt they could have held steady at $190 or $200m and just said fuck it. But spending more of 2024’s cap space for future years is a minor encouraging sign about their inclination to spend to compete in future years. Sucks for 2024 though.
 

HfxBob

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Sadly, with Giolito out I see very little incentive for Montgomery to consider Boston.
Just have to Show Him the Money.

But I'm guessing that wasn't one of John Henry's favorite movies.
 

effectivelywild

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I assume that the extension was long in the works, but when I saw that the news of the Bello extension relatively closely followed news about Giolito's injury, I thought that at the minimum seeing a fellow pitcher (with no real history of injury) go down with an elbow problem had to at least mildly prod Bello to take the guaranteed money, because nothing is ever certain for a pitcher.


And then I thought "Wouldn't it be such a 5-D interdimensional chess move if the Sox when evaluating Giolito saw something that hinted his elbow could break and to sign him anyways knowing that if it happened then it could motivate Bello to sign an extension, which was their REAL goal." You know, crippling the team this season to get some cost savings down the line.

Brilliant.
 

sezwho

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I assume that the extension was long in the works, but when I saw that the news of the Bello extension relatively closely followed news about Giolito's injury, I thought that at the minimum seeing a fellow pitcher (with no real history of injury) go down with an elbow problem had to at least mildly prod Bello to take the guaranteed money, because nothing is ever certain for a pitcher.


And then I thought "Wouldn't it be such a 5-D interdimensional chess move if the Sox when evaluating Giolito saw something that hinted his elbow could break and to sign him anyways knowing that if it happened then it could motivate Bello to sign an extension, which was their REAL goal." You know, crippling the team this season to get some cost savings down the line.

Brilliant.
It may have opened Bello to the idea as well as creating just a bit more incentive for the FO to have something to change the narrative. I think it was happening anyway (I think you do too?) just saying it may have impacted timing.
 

effectivelywild

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It may have opened Bello to the idea as well as creating just a bit more incentive for the FO to have something to change the narrative. I think it was happening anyway (I think you do too?) just saying it may have impacted timing.
Absolutely. Deals like this are (IMO) almost always the result of a lot of discussion and negotiation and I suspect something would have happened regardless. But both sides were likely motivated to find common ground (Boston for the PR, Bello for the security after being reminded of the injury rate of pitchers). Nothing like seeing an unexpected injury to make you think that mayyyyyybe you would feel better if you accepted a reasonable offer. Certainly at least one less thing to worry about now for Bello.