Now Morosi is reporting it, although not quite finished.
View: https://twitter.com/jonmorosi/status/1765776114612347357
Brayan Bello signed to a 6 year, $55 million extension
- Thread starter RedOctober3829
- Start date
View: https://twitter.com/jonmorosi/status/1765776114612347357
Ok looking at Strider's deal on Spotrac...
2023: $1m
2024: $1m
2025: $4m
2026: $20m
2027: $22m
2028: $22m
2029: $22m
So for Bello that would be:
2024 (25): $1m
2025 (26): $1m
2026 (27): $4m
2027 (28): $20m
2028 (29): $22m
2029 (30): $22m
2030 (31): $22m
TOTAL: $92 million
From 2024-2028, it would be $70 million which would be about $25 million more than what I would roughly expect him to make if the Sox just leave him be. But then in 2029 and 2030, they'd pay him $44 million combined, which likely will be far cheaper than what he could make on the open market as a FA. Let's say he could get $45m in 2029 and $50m in 2030. That's $95 million from 2029-2030.
So just letting Bello's contract run and then signing him to a FA deal, here's what we'd be looking at:
2024-2028: $45m
2029-2030: $95m
2024-2030: $140m
To extend him like Spencer we'd be looking at:
2024-2028: $48m (edited because my math was off - I double counted one year by accident)
2029-2030: $44m
2024-2030: $92m
So yeah, in this case, the extension would be significantly cheaper in the long run. For Bello, he'd be trading possibly making more money for the security of $92 million guaranteed, which obviously sets him and his family up for life. For the Sox, they'd be looking at getting him for less money through age 31 than probably otherwise, but they're taking on significant risk regarding his health.
Very interesting situation.
2023: $1m
2024: $1m
2025: $4m
2026: $20m
2027: $22m
2028: $22m
2029: $22m
So for Bello that would be:
2024 (25): $1m
2025 (26): $1m
2026 (27): $4m
2027 (28): $20m
2028 (29): $22m
2029 (30): $22m
2030 (31): $22m
TOTAL: $92 million
From 2024-2028, it would be $70 million which would be about $25 million more than what I would roughly expect him to make if the Sox just leave him be. But then in 2029 and 2030, they'd pay him $44 million combined, which likely will be far cheaper than what he could make on the open market as a FA. Let's say he could get $45m in 2029 and $50m in 2030. That's $95 million from 2029-2030.
So just letting Bello's contract run and then signing him to a FA deal, here's what we'd be looking at:
2024-2028: $45m
2029-2030: $95m
2024-2030: $140m
To extend him like Spencer we'd be looking at:
2024-2028: $48m (edited because my math was off - I double counted one year by accident)
2029-2030: $44m
2024-2030: $92m
So yeah, in this case, the extension would be significantly cheaper in the long run. For Bello, he'd be trading possibly making more money for the security of $92 million guaranteed, which obviously sets him and his family up for life. For the Sox, they'd be looking at getting him for less money through age 31 than probably otherwise, but they're taking on significant risk regarding his health.
Very interesting situation.
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Feels like Bello should come a little cheaper than Strider, given that he’s not as good a pitcher. But probably not significantly so.
One interesting comparison is the Rays Archer deal. In 2014 the Rays gave Archer a 6 year extension with a further 2 years of club options. The value of that contract was enourmous - and it allowed the Rays in 2018 to flip Archer at the deadline for Tyler Glasnos, Austin Meadows and Shane Baz - a deal that only happened because a small market team could afford the out years. This was, of course, one of the worst trades in recent memory, but the point is the extension if the player performs creates incredible value.
Yeah, Strider's FIP has been 2.48 in his career thusfar; Bello's has been 4.11. Bello gets some points for have such a good groundball rate, but one of these guys is striking out 13 and a half people per nine as a starter, which is peak Chris Sale/Randy Johnson territory, and the other... has a good groundball rate and a good walk rate.
I love Bello, I'm happy they're locking him up, I was impressed by how he cut his walks last year, and I think he has the potential to be a really good #1 pitcher as soon as this year, but I doubt he's ever anything like Strider.
I love Bello, I'm happy they're locking him up, I was impressed by how he cut his walks last year, and I think he has the potential to be a really good #1 pitcher as soon as this year, but I doubt he's ever anything like Strider.
That trade is mind-blowing. Still surprising how quickly Archer fell apart and of course it'd be a concern with Bello (or anyone! Hell, Strider could turn into a pumpkin). There's no way in hell a team like Boston could pull off trades like that- if hypothetical Chris Archer was with the Sox and the same scenario was possible.
Here's the thing- Strider got 6 years plus a team option, which means one or two additional years of club control. And he's a better pitcher than Bello at the point of signing the contract extension. So it seems likely that the Sox could offer 6 years, club option for a 7th, at a lower value than Strider's contract, with the numbers landing somewhere between Strider and Hunter Greene. (Bello's numbers from last year look a lot closer to Greene's than Strider's stats in 2022.)
Let's go with 6 years, $62 million, with a club option for a 7th year at $21.5 million.
LOL They hate pitchers in their 30’s! <sarcasm>
Would have liked more years but those can always be added later on. Fantastic news! A tick over $9m/year over 6 plus a 7th year, reasonable option sounds good to me and fair for both sides.
Would have liked more years but those can always be added later on. Fantastic news! A tick over $9m/year over 6 plus a 7th year, reasonable option sounds good to me and fair for both sides.
Will be interesting to see the details and how it impacts the cap. If the value gets spread so that we're paying more this year in order to pay less in future years, that's actually a nice benefit too. Might as well burn up to the budget this year.
The deal starts this year so I believe his hit will become 9.1667M right away. (Not sure how club options work on hit)
Wow, OK. I mean, the kid is now officially wealthy, or on his way to it, and I don't mind that the team's budget can swallow that number easily (caveat, not my money). But it's interesting for this to happen at a moment where Jordan Montgomery and reigning Cy Young winner Blake Snell are begging for pillow deals. The trickle-down impact of Boras' bad gamble? $21m is a reasonable number for Bello at age 31 in this market unless he turns into a true ace.
Ha! I mean, they hate paying pitchers in their late 30s for past performance. But 31, 32, 33... sign em up!
So from 2024-2030, with a club option for 2031? For a grand total (including the option) of $76 million?
Based on my projections in earlier posts today, this is a great deal for Boston.
Based on my projections in earlier posts today, this is a great deal for Boston.
This seems like a fair deal to me, but comparing it to what Fangraphs says he’s worth doesn’t really make much sense- the comparison needs to be against what he could make via arbitration were this deal not signed. That the Sox signed him suggests they think highly of him and project him to be very valuable, let hope they are right. Nice to lock in some cost certainty, esp in the event he reaches his peak- well worth the risk if he doesn’t.
I can't see how that would change anything regarding that spot, to the extent they see it as an open spot. It doesn't change the need or, really, the finances in any serious way. I don't really buy the "hard budget limit" thing, that sounds more like a negotiating tactic. I've seen plenty of versions of that in my job. If there is good value available, they will want to get in on it.
We have no idea, because everything we know about their budget is just speculation, and everything they have said about it publicly is (1) contradictory and (2) has come during a high-stakes negotiation and is unlikely to be true in any straightforward way.
(Absolutely this Bello signing looks like an amazing deal. Congratulations to him and to us.)
Basically Hunter Greene's contract. Greene got 6/53M plus a 21M team option. This is 6/55M plus a 21M team option.
So it looks as though part of the Sox strategy is to try to use up some of the money that they have under their budget/tax this year to save in future years. I think if you're not going to compete, that's actually kind of clever.
MLB is not like the NFL, obviously. You don't carry over extra cap room from year to year. It's effectively use or lose. Given the way baseball contracts work, there is not much you can do to shift. But the Red Sox are actually finding little ways to do it.
You look at this deal and you sort of think that all they really did is give a guy injury protection for several years in exchange to lock up arbitration values against inflation and get one reasonable FA year plus one reasonable option. That's a fair thing to do, and doesn't move the needle much. But the sneaky part is that they've also moved future years payments into this year and next year. Not huge, again, but clever.
Edit -- and by the way if they really did just add $9 million to this year's tax computation I think those who may continue to have been pining for Monty (raises hand) can kind of put their hands down now.
This is a slam dunk. I love the term and I love the dollars for both sides. Now go get Casas done. Nice job to his reps and the to sox front office.
I think Casas was offered something that he flatly turned down. I wonder how it compared to this.
Mutual, $25ish? For him a team-only option would be too risky if he ever wants to hit the open market.
Where'd you hear that? [just curious] If I'm Casas, the hitters' market is much hotter, he should be looking at more. Same age so he should be looking for a similar term, but different numbers/options.
This looks very good, especially from the AAV POV for the Sox. In a worst case scenario, if his arm falls off, they're not looking at a huge tax hit in any given year.
I don't think there's a precedent for that with guys this young. Strider, Javier, Greene and Peralta all only sold 2 years of control. Seems like that's the standard.
Terms seem pretty good. Probably about fair for both sides. Good job.
It works the other way too. Hitters are much more likely to stay healthy and produce on a normal curve, so they have less reason to trade maximum value for security, especially after they have already shown they can handle the jump to the bigs. I hope they are offering something to Mayer on day 1.
Yeah, in almost any extension deal the bare minimum is that player has to give up at least 1 year of FA at below-market rate, in exchange for more guaranteed cash overall to that point. Otherwise there's no incentive for the club, except maybe saving during the arb years by negotiating the salary up front. But even there, it's guaranteed money, as opposed to being able to DFA someone who isn't worth controlling that last arb year or two. Like Arroyo.
This is a great deal. Locks up the exact years you want in a pitcher, gives Bello plenty of security and should let him cash in on one big payday into his mid-to-late-30s that we don't need to have anything to do with if he's everything we hope he will be. Offseason suddenly seems a lot rosier, even if it doesn't change much for this season.
Great deal for everyone. Some may even call it a “no-brainer”. <ducks>
I would imagine they are going to try and do this with a number of other folks — Casas to start, and then potentially Mayer / Teel / Anthony, etc. It will be interesting to see if the Players Union has any issue with these contracts if it becomes even more widespread. Over the long haul, it has the potential to have a dramatic impact on free agency. I wonder if it is part of the discussion when the CBA expires after 2026?
I would imagine they are going to try and do this with a number of other folks — Casas to start, and then potentially Mayer / Teel / Anthony, etc. It will be interesting to see if the Players Union has any issue with these contracts if it becomes even more widespread. Over the long haul, it has the potential to have a dramatic impact on free agency. I wonder if it is part of the discussion when the CBA expires after 2026?
100%...
This is what they should have done with Betts, Bogaerts, and Devers.
Idiots.
NOW it’s a no brainer! 
This is a shrewd long term move that doesn’t help the team at all in 2024 but should for years to come.
This is a shrewd long term move that doesn’t help the team at all in 2024 but should for years to come.
It's almost exactly what they did with Bogaerts.
No way Mookie accepts this deal.
Kind of agree on Devers.
They did it with Bogaerts. Buying one year of free agency from Devers would have pushed off his big deal to this winter instead of last.
I can only imagine the MLBPA would have to make unspeakable concessions in order to get their members to free agency faster.
Let me address the Devers situation...
It was no secret that Raffy was a big-time hitter - and when everyone witnessed a clutched opposite field HR off of Chapman in Yankee Stadium, an alarm bell (shortly should have gone off shortly thereafter) to sign the kid for $100M over 10 years.
That was an easy one.
Yeah, if only they had been able to sign Bogaerts to something in the 6/120 range earlier on.
How has this not become a thing yet. Gonna need someone to change the text on this.
But what's that matter now? Devers already signed for another 10 years. He'll be around for a while.
Since the Braves signed all their great young players to long contracts, somehow a belief started that the long contracts are the success story of the team. They're not. The success is getting a bunch of great young players all at the same time who are worth offering deals to. But even if they had never extended any of them, their roster would have been precisely the same the last 3 years. The 6 years of team control you get by doing nothing are often more valuable than the extra few you may get at a discount after that.
You know that when there's tons of shitty money on the books and the team (for good or bad) is trying to stay under the cap, they can't just open up the purse and extend every single young budding possible star, right?
It'd be great if they did all that years ago, but there was some gigantic payrolls already on the books that they kinda needed to clear before they started extending those guys. Having a bunch of those types at their respective affordable cost was/is still necessary.
That said, I think Bello and Casas are the only guys currently they should be looking to do this with right now
It'd be great if they did all that years ago, but there was some gigantic payrolls already on the books that they kinda needed to clear before they started extending those guys. Having a bunch of those types at their respective affordable cost was/is still necessary.
That said, I think Bello and Casas are the only guys currently they should be looking to do this with right now