2023-24 Celtics
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I know there’s an impulse to just want the playoffs to start now. Part of me just wishes we could fast forward to a Nuggets finals so we could get on with it.
But I’m going to do my best to savor these last 24 games. You never know when we might get the stars aligned like this again, and games like the last two, where the Cs just seem to put themselves in another gear and assert their will and just brush inferior opponents aside are just so fun to watch. I don’t want to miss a minute of it.
I’m also getting to be very high on Coach Joe. He just seems to have complete buy-in across the board and the team is happy and on-message in a way that’s pretty remarkable.
But I’m going to do my best to savor these last 24 games. You never know when we might get the stars aligned like this again, and games like the last two, where the Cs just seem to put themselves in another gear and assert their will and just brush inferior opponents aside are just so fun to watch. I don’t want to miss a minute of it.
I’m also getting to be very high on Coach Joe. He just seems to have complete buy-in across the board and the team is happy and on-message in a way that’s pretty remarkable.
Funny how things changed thes past couple of games when he no longer has to defend two players all night. There may not be a more overrated player in the league than Trae.
Oh I bet we could get a decently long list together of players more overrated than Trae
I think that he changed when he got his bag too, but no argument on Trae. He's an extremely gifted offensive player, but the worst defensive player in the league.
CJM is running player rotation, match-up, and style experiments over the next 24.
These games are gold for an analytically driven HC/team.
The Celtics have been excellent with KP/Al shrink wrap/load mgmt all season. Just hope they lean into that more with Tillman/Luke getting more minutes
My favorite little guy defender to hate on is Kyrie because, well, fuck him, but also because he is such a phony about it. When he’s getting backed down, he makes a big show of doing lots of business to make it look like he’s trying but ultimately if his lazy swipes at the ball don’t result in a lucky steal he is completely indifferent.
That would imply that Young is actually a winning basketball player. More addition by subtraction imo.
Agree, it's all performance art with Kyrie....Those Kyrie guarding Giannis scars run deep, it was a full on middle finger to Danny/Brad/fans/teammates
OTOH Jalen Brunson is that short PG who is really smart. Not only does he have the girth to push back 4/5s for 3-4 seconds but he is solid at taking charges.
Feels like he’s more solid at making the most of any contact/flopping if the latest Celts game is any indication.. felt like he was constantly on the floor.
I would like to see at least some Xavier Tillman over the next 24. I think he's played maybe 2 minutes since the trade?
Once we hit the road and have some B2B’s where there is opportunity. Nobody is going to lose rotation minutes for the purpose of getting a guy some run until we are a little shorthanded which will be coming soon.
Brunson is 2nd in charges drawn this year. Podz is leading the category by quite a bit. Great draft pick by the Warriors
https://www.nba.com/stats/players/hustle-leaders
Bingo. After living the IT/Kemba experience, you just don't want to pay MAX $$$ for pointZ + no defense.
Your halfcourt playoff defense is only as strong as its weakest link
Word. We are witnessing something unique here. There have been many great teams but I can‘t recall one with the combination of skill, versatility, and intelligent play across the entire starting five that these guys have shown most of this season. Plus they’re very likable. Let’s sit back and enjoy the ride.
It's kind of funny to see Brunson getting credit for being 2nd in total charges drawn while remembering Kemba's ineptness on defense in the same post. Kemba was 3rd in charges drawn in 2019, 7th in 2020 and tied for 1st in 2021, even as he played just 43 games. Drawing charges is nice but like steals, it doesn't come close to capturing how effective someone is defensively.
Just the other day I heard Rick Kamla on NBA radio propose a Laker trade for Trae Young
(multiple firsts and Reeves or something) that would, he said, immediately make them the best team in the league.
Hollinger posted an article that posited soemthing like Reaves, Russell, filler and three firsts for Trae.
I doubt it takes that much to get Trae.
Kemba floated in the lane & drew charges. The bigger problem was Kemba's knee was so shot that he put up zero resistance when matched up against a BIG/Wing in the paint for more than a second. Cooked
OTOH Brunson immediately gets physical with BIGs/Wings, when they push back he tries to draw a charge. Right out of the Marcus Smart playbook.
Their approach is/was completely different. I mean Kemba lasted 4 weeks with Thibs, while Brunson barely leaves the floor.
Watching Kemba Walker play defense for Boston turned us all into Exasperated Guy
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Maybe like one fewer draft pick but I think we're discovering that mid-low draft picks are worth less than they were a few years ago.
https://theathletic.com/5305111/2024/02/28/trae-young-injury-return-atlanta-hawks-future-lakers/. Assuming ATL's front office has half a brain, unprotected 2029 and 2031 would be non-negotiable but the 2024 pick is not a great one given what people think of the draft so more like 2.5 firsts.
Additionally, the timing lines up on draft capital. After the season, the Lakers would have three first-round picks available to send to Atlanta in a deal, including unprotected firsts in 2029 and 2031 (the other pick would likely be at this year’s draft, assuming New Orleans defers its right to an unprotected Lakers pick to 2025). That would make it possible for the Hawks to offset the picks lost in the Murray trade.
Matching salary combinations also work; they likely involve the Hawks taking back some unwelcome dollars and a repeat of the “Reaves-or-Russell” haggling that torpedoed the Murray talks in February, but it’s not an intractable problem. Rui Hachimura, Reaves and Gabe Vincent gets this to the red zone on salary match; all that’s left is negotiating on adding small contracts as each team fights to stay below the tax apron.
I haven't been all that impressive with Brunson defensively, other than the charges drawn there really doesn't seem to be too much there. I honestly didn't see enough of Kemba in Charlotte to comment on his defense, but DARKO makes it look like Kemba was solidly better defensively than Brunson at the same age:
Kemba only lasted a few weeks with Thibs, but this is in large part because he was 31 and already wracked with injuries. Brunson has missed 18 games in a little under two seasons with Thibs, but at the same age, (26-27), Kemba missed just 5 games in two full seasons.
When it comes to Kemba I only speak of his Boston years, he was a helluva of a player until MJ decided to pass on MAXing him.
Kemba's defensse, or lack of the, was ignored in Charlotte bc nobody really cared about the Bobcats/Hornets and opponents never gave them their A-game. He was always an awful defender similar to many small guards we've been discussing the past few days.
I won't defend Kemba's defense (here or in Charlotte), only to say that Brunson isn't much better than most of the small guards we think of as defensive liabilities.
I like Brunson on that end better than most as he is very crafty, like a guard version of Jokic who has turned himself into a plus defender. I don't rate Brunson as a plus defender but what he brings is an effort that is different that Haliburton, Trae, Lillard and some others. He makes defensive plays with his IQ alone and he is one of the smartest players in the league imo.
Small guards aren't necessarily poor defenders. Van Vleet and Lowry stand out as 2 guys who get after it using their low body strength to compensate for being short. Brunson seems to fit that mode. PP (to shift this thread back to the C's) has been much better this year, I think because he's stronger than in past years. We'll see if it holds up in the playoffs.
I know, there are some real good ones (Lowry especially). I meant that Brunson isn't much better than the smaller guards mentioned in this thread (Haliburton, Lillard, Young) defensively. I don't think he's in the same neighborhood as guys like Lowry/VanVleet/CP3, he's probably about as effective as Pritchard in that regard. That's not awful (it's more than serviceable during the regular season), but there are playoff matchups where it will cause the Knicks trouble. He's not going to be played off the court like Pritchard could potentially be because his offense is so good, but it's absolutely gonna matter at some point.
From today's Celtics Chronicle Mailbag in response to a reader question about the last roster spot. Someone should get Adam a membership.
Do we think Patty Mills can stay on the court defensively in a playoff game? He feels really duplicative of PP to me....so, as a depth/injury insurance on that role I get it, but generally would think Porter/a wing is more likely to be called up and needed.
My posts sucks as I made a terrible joke and it landed how it should.
That said, Adam puts out good stuff and it scratches my Otto Porter Jr. itch. If the Cs aren't going to get Blake a ring, get Otto another!
From your keyboard to Brad's eyes, Adam!
Was just a stupid mistake, they said the Celtics were welcoming back Grant Williams and the Mavs.
Fun video on the Cs offense that puts together a lot of stats that we've discussed previously. Two interesting facts from the video:
(1) BOS has second best half-court offense by ORTg in the league.
(2) BOS's starters have a 124.0 ORtg when on the floor together. According to NBA.com, they've only played together 495 minutes over 30 games and they are +147 during that span. Amazing.
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OJGJItEFeeY
(1) BOS has second best half-court offense by ORTg in the league.
(2) BOS's starters have a 124.0 ORtg when on the floor together. According to NBA.com, they've only played together 495 minutes over 30 games and they are +147 during that span. Amazing.
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OJGJItEFeeY
I'm curious about this. This equates to +14.25 per 48 minutes. For an elite team, is that stat truly amazing? Like, what were the (for example) 2008 Celts starters per 48? The 86 Celtics? Some recent Warriors teams? 90s Bulls?
Someone who has Stathead can probably figure this out quickly but there's some information in this article about the greatest starting 5s in NBA history:
For example, the article says that 2001-02 Spurs (Smith, Bowen, Duncan, Parker, Robinson) had a NRtg of 18.5 and the 2014-15 + 2015-16 OKC (Durant, Westbrook, Ibaka, Roberson, Adams) had a NRtg of 17.6 over two seasons in more than 1000 minutes.
@Brand Name can probably give you chapter and verse.
Thanks. That's helpful. +14.25 is obviously outstanding but it's not a historically good figure.
The minutes figure then makes me wonder if Joe doesn’t let this lineup stay in the game long with huge leads. Like if he’s quicker to break up that five with minutes from Pritchard/hauser/etc than those other teams, this stat might not tell the full story.
Well, the lineups to which we are comparing them are historically great so at least they are in the company of historically great lineups.
The other thing is that 495 minutes is not a lot. The 2008-10 Cs starting lineup played over 4000 minutes together.
I said this at the beginning of the season and I'll stand by it - this is the best shooting starting 5 I can think of - better than any listed in the B/R article.
This is from two days ago, I’ll check the updated numbers when I have time later. But these are the best high volume five man units. It’s also why I think people writing the Bucks off are being silly.
The Celtics starting five smoke teams, but their strength is being able to roll out what feels like endless lineups that just destroy other teams. Which that is tied to Tatum, as it really doesn’t matter who you put out there with him.
The Celtics starting five smoke teams, but their strength is being able to roll out what feels like endless lineups that just destroy other teams. Which that is tied to Tatum, as it really doesn’t matter who you put out there with him.
Another data point in support of your statement. You can get P/M numbers for this season (and lots of other season) here: https://www.pbpstats.com/totals/nba/lineup-opponent?Season=2023-24&SeasonType=Regular+Season
DEN's starting 5 is + 236 in 708 minutes.
MIL's starting 5 is +181 in 527 minutes (in addition, MIL's starting 5 with Crowder instead of Middleton is +106 in 204 minutes. Boy is MIL's bench bad).
PHI's starting 5 (with Embiid) is + 163 in 219 minutes.
In total plus/minus, BOS is 4th.