Haha, I hear that, but just going off what I’ve seen. Shams just posted about it too:
View: https://twitter.com/shamscharania/status/1514669025653293056?s=21&t=tXirx2Wyv7n_Tq1y1Q7HXw
Celtics vs. Nets, Round 1 Discussion
- Thread starter tims4wins
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View: https://twitter.com/shamscharania/status/1514669025653293056?s=21&t=tXirx2Wyv7n_Tq1y1Q7HXw
The Bullets are a terrible franchise, but it isn't because of the current ownership. Even under previous owner Abe Pollin, ownership's biggest fault was their blind spot WRT Wes Unseld. I'm convinced Pollin saw his 1978 finals MVP as someone who could never do wrong.
It seems to me like the Nets are using Shams for gamesmanship purposes to keep the Celtics guessing on their prep. If I ran the Celtics Twitter page I’d respond to Shams, “Cool, keep us in the loop.” to troll him.
Cs don't seem to care much: https://www.clnsmedia.com/celtics-dont-seem-worried-about-possible-ben-simmons-return/
Nor should they. None of this makes any sense but it’s slow before these series begin I suppose.
Edit: For the record I would not be surprised, and even almost expect, to have the Nets list Simmons as questionable or game-time decision prior to a game later in this series. It’s the smart thing to do to force the Celtics to pay at least some attention to game planning for him on both ends. Won’t fool me though……I’m allin on Ben being allout.
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I’d be surprised if Simmons beats Timelord back.
I’d also be surprised if Simmons is any good thrown into the middle of a playoff series.
The best thing you can say, from a Nets perspective, is that 20 minutes of a Simmons has a very low bar to be helpful. Given how bad some of their depth is.
I’d also be surprised if Simmons is any good thrown into the middle of a playoff series.
The best thing you can say, from a Nets perspective, is that 20 minutes of a Simmons has a very low bar to be helpful. Given how bad some of their depth is.
Kyrie is apparently fasting during Ramadan (4/1 - 5/1). Fasting for Muslims during Ramadan means no food or water between sun up and sun down. I wonder how that will work for the day game on Sunday.
He lit the hell out of the Cavs in the play-in game. Not sure what long-term effects there might be at the tail end of the month, but I wouldn't count on Kyrie being affected.
Umm don't doubt that but sundown occurred at 7 pm during the game on 4/12. On Sunday, he won't be able to drink water during an NBA play-off game.
Fair, but the issue of his fasting came up during the post-game interview and at least I was left with the impression that Kyrie hadn't eaten before the game. I hadn't considered the water issue.
This isn’t uncommon at all in the NBA anymore during the playoffs. As mentioned above, Barkley tells stories all the time about Hakeem during his 4 years in Houston at the end of his career.
The Athletic did a roundtable with Jay King, Jared Weiss and Alex Schiffer who covers the Nets for the site. All three picked the C's with King and Weiss saying Celtics in six while Schiffer thought it might go seven which hurts Brooklyn given the relative lack of depth around KD and Kyrie.
Separately, the Athletic did an anonymous poll of a scout, an executive and coach. The scout has the series very close with Brooklyn winning in seven. The coach has the Nets in six with Durant and Irving's ability to win isolation match-ups as they key decider. Finally, the executive has the Celtics in seven based on their depth.
As a side note, it feels like if TL were playing at least the scout would lean towards Boston.
Separately, the Athletic did an anonymous poll of a scout, an executive and coach. The scout has the series very close with Brooklyn winning in seven. The coach has the Nets in six with Durant and Irving's ability to win isolation match-ups as they key decider. Finally, the executive has the Celtics in seven based on their depth.
As a side note, it feels like if TL were playing at least the scout would lean towards Boston.
Really surprised by all these 6 and 7 game series predictions. Very conservative. The C’s struggled against Miami because they are pesky on D. Not the case here. It’s a track meet with 2 stars that need to be lights out every game. There will be a lot of fast break opportunities that are perfect conditions for this team. The C’s are deeper and are so well connected. This really feels like a C’s in 5 series to me.
Sounds about right given that while the Celtics are favored, their series is projected to be the closest among the opening round matchups. That's unlikely to change even though the 1-8 matchups aren't set yet (although if the Clippers win and Kawhi comes back for game 1, that series suddenly gets interesting).
There are dozens of different ways to fast BUT the health benefits of fasting are pretty well proven.
Anyone looking to lose weight should consider intermittent fasting/ketosis (plenty of books/YouTube vids available)
I'm not surprised by the mixed feelings across the league on who is winning this series. The Celtics are on paper a much better team and the Nets have been relatively mediocre across this closing stretch; but they have maybe the best player in the league and another guy who is occasionally capable of playing at that level so people will always be somewhat hesitant to pick against them.
I would expect a long series.
One team has Kevin Durant... even if they didn't have Kyrie too that's probably good for a game or 2 alone.
I mean this Nets team isn't significantly worse than the one that went 2-2 w/ Kyrie and KD against the Bucks last year (honestly it might be slightly better). The Nets don't play great defense, but they aren't the Hornets out there either, and on offense they are insanely good.
I think the Nets are at worst the 4th best team in the East.
One team has Kevin Durant... even if they didn't have Kyrie too that's probably good for a game or 2 alone.
I mean this Nets team isn't significantly worse than the one that went 2-2 w/ Kyrie and KD against the Bucks last year (honestly it might be slightly better). The Nets don't play great defense, but they aren't the Hornets out there either, and on offense they are insanely good.
I think the Nets are at worst the 4th best team in the East.
The C's are the better team, but in a close game, there's no player in the NBA you'd rather have with the ball in his hands than Durant.
Celtics in 5 is where I am too, and I'm surprised so many Celtics fans think this will be close series.
Towards the end of the year the Celtics feasted on bad defensive teams, and Brooklyn is at the bottom of the barrel on defense. We're going to see a lot of wide open 3s against Brooklyn, and as long as Smart and White aren't taking most of them that will bode really well for Boston. And when Brooklyn overcommits to closeouts, that's when Brown and Smart can do a lot of damage. Heck, even Grant Williams started attacking closeouts and getting easy buckets.
KD and Kyrie can only score so much. I can see the two of them combining to average 65 PPG and the Nets still losing the series while Boston scores 120 PPG.
I have a hunch that Boston is going to win this series easily and afterwards the narrative is going to change to Brooklyn was just a 7 seed and everyone knew they were flawed all along.
I think Celtics in six or seven, though Brooklyn is definitely a worrying opponent. If I had to choose, I'd say Celtics in six. My concern is how they play in tight games. At least early in the season, the offense tended to fall apart when the score got close, and they slipped back into bad ISO habits. Late in the season, it wasn't a problem because they were usually blowing people out. The key will be how rattled they get when things start going south, I think. If it turns into the Jayson and Jaylen Show, then I think they'll be in trouble.
White shot 48.6% from 3P over the last 9 games of the season. If that continues Cs will be tough to beat.
So quoting you, but a lot of people are saying stuff like this and it just isn't true.
Brooklyn was 20th on the year in D, but 15th post-Harden trade, and 9th once Kyrie became a full-time player.
They aren't a GOOD defensive team, but they aren't they Blazers or Hawks, this is an averagish defense paired with an elite offense.
I think this series is going to be a dogfight, but is this exactly right? Nets allowed 114.3 PPG in March...
https://www.nba.com/stats/teams/advanced/?sort=W&dir=-1&Season=2021-22&SeasonType=Regular Season
You can enter any dates you like (Harden trade is 2/11-today, Kyrie back is 3/23-today), they had a 114.6 Drtg in March... 15th in the league, scoring was up big as the year went on.
Amsuingly, while only 5 games, Nets had a better D than Celtics in April. They closed fairly strong on that end. They are a solidly mediocre defense.
Yeah, against some other matchups, Celtics clamps = you stop scoring while the C's create advantageous positions off your misses and turnovers to score 20 points in about 4 minutes to just totally demoralize you and put a close game suddenly out of reach. Because of the iso talent in BK, clamps is more like making those guys work hard enough that maybe they dog it a little more on D as time passes or maybe the short an important shot later in the game.
They did beat this same team in a close game toward the end of the season so at least there isn't that element of psyching themselves out or whatever.
The biggest keys to me are whether or not they continue to move the ball with a purpose, and if they can do so without turning the ball over. The Nets aren't great on D but they are handsy as hell, especially Kyrie who just hacks like crazy going for steals. Playing clean will go a long way in this series to keep Brooklyn out of as many fast break situations as possible.
I think it's going to be Celtics in 5 (and I'm trying to separate my optimism from my fandom). It comes down to this for me:
- The Celtics have multiple options that they can throw at KD (Tatum, Brown, Horford in a pinch, TL if/when he comes back) and the same at Kyrie (Smart, White, Brown). None of those Cs will stop the Nets stars of course, but they'll at least make them work for every shot and there's no one really in the Cs core group for them to pick on, except when Theis and PP come off the bench (and ideally we're matching those minutes with one of the Nets stars sitting). When the Nets have two non-shooters on the floor (Brown and a center) the Cs will be able to devote more attention to them as well. As great as Durant and Irving are, I don't think they can score 80 points between the two of them every game and I'm not sure where the rest of the offense is coming from. This team isn't as deep as the one that pushed the Bucks last year and I highly doubt Simmons come back in anything resembling playing shape this series.
- The Nets don't have options to guard Tatum or Brown. Their defense may be improved, but they're only option to defend on the wing beyond KD is Kessler Edwards. I don't think they want him seeing big minutes. Bruce Brown is a great defender, but he's small and our wings can shoot over him. Plus I don't think Irving can maintain defensive intensity for a whole series, Curry stinks on D, and Durant could be pretty toasty after a few games of carrying the offense AND shouldering a big defensive burden. I think at least one of the two wings will be able to flourish in each game and ideally good contributions from Smart/White/Horford, who are going against inferior defensive players at their positions.
- Coaching - I think we have a slight coaching advantage. Ime has been drilling these guys all year in preparation for the playoffs. It looked ugly early, but now they're executing both offensively and defensively, and I think he'll be able to take advantage of the matchups in this series. Nash - IDK, it's hard to read him, but not much about this team seems terribly coachable. Everything for the Nets comes down to 1-on-1 and that might not be good enough against a well rounded team.
I think the Nets win one early at the Garden, then Boston closes out with three straight, the final victory being Time Lord's return.
- The Celtics have multiple options that they can throw at KD (Tatum, Brown, Horford in a pinch, TL if/when he comes back) and the same at Kyrie (Smart, White, Brown). None of those Cs will stop the Nets stars of course, but they'll at least make them work for every shot and there's no one really in the Cs core group for them to pick on, except when Theis and PP come off the bench (and ideally we're matching those minutes with one of the Nets stars sitting). When the Nets have two non-shooters on the floor (Brown and a center) the Cs will be able to devote more attention to them as well. As great as Durant and Irving are, I don't think they can score 80 points between the two of them every game and I'm not sure where the rest of the offense is coming from. This team isn't as deep as the one that pushed the Bucks last year and I highly doubt Simmons come back in anything resembling playing shape this series.
- The Nets don't have options to guard Tatum or Brown. Their defense may be improved, but they're only option to defend on the wing beyond KD is Kessler Edwards. I don't think they want him seeing big minutes. Bruce Brown is a great defender, but he's small and our wings can shoot over him. Plus I don't think Irving can maintain defensive intensity for a whole series, Curry stinks on D, and Durant could be pretty toasty after a few games of carrying the offense AND shouldering a big defensive burden. I think at least one of the two wings will be able to flourish in each game and ideally good contributions from Smart/White/Horford, who are going against inferior defensive players at their positions.
- Coaching - I think we have a slight coaching advantage. Ime has been drilling these guys all year in preparation for the playoffs. It looked ugly early, but now they're executing both offensively and defensively, and I think he'll be able to take advantage of the matchups in this series. Nash - IDK, it's hard to read him, but not much about this team seems terribly coachable. Everything for the Nets comes down to 1-on-1 and that might not be good enough against a well rounded team.
I think the Nets win one early at the Garden, then Boston closes out with three straight, the final victory being Time Lord's return.
Exactly. It’s a lazy narrative that simply isn’t true. People talking about them like they are the Rockets then they go out and shut down offenses like Atlanta and Charlotte for long stretches when they trail. Holes for sure and lack backcourt size and transition defense but they protect the rim like heck with Durant and Drummond.
Raw numbers lie. Context matters. The Nets clearly took their foot off the gas once Toronto went on their late season run so waiting for the Cavs to fall below them to secure the 6-seed was a long shot to them. So they coasted really on both sides of the ball but especially defensive intensity. They also played a lot of high powered offenses in March along with drecks like Portland where they had no desire to defend. We saw against Cleveland in the 1H how they are capable of ramping up and protecting the rim then later saw just how quickly they can lose interest as well.
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The backcourt D is bad and in order for the O to be really really good/play how Nash wants to play they have to sacrifice defense for shooting.
I don’t think they are really bad but I also don’t think they are top 10 (id guess bottom half of the league). Without Simmons I think they will have trouble guarding both Tatum and Brown.
But I do have some concerns about Celtics end of game offense, especially when the other team has KD who it seems like can score at will….
Teams that are short on depth but have a few star players tend to be really overrated around playoff time. I get living in fear of Durant (and to a lesser extent Kyrie) but I often think that we see these teams get to the playoffs and then it all comes apart because it turns out you need to have like, 7-8 good players to win a title; regardless of how super-talented your best player is. My prediction is that around Game 3 or 4, it will become pretty obvious that the Nets don't have the horses to contend with a well-rounded group like the Celtics (who by the way, have some pretty big stars of their own).
Exactly - it's not only the Nets that have high-end talent. The Celtics have the favorite for DPOY, a likely All NBA 1. Teamer (Top ~7 in MVP imo) and the best defense in the league.
Add in home field advantage and some good to really good players in JB, DW, AH, (TL once healthy) and a solid bench.
I can't see the Nets taking more than 2 games in this series, possibly even less...
BOSTON IN 5!
I don't agree with this at all, depth matters far less in the playoffs where you can play your best guys 40+ minutes a night. Team with 2 of the 3 best players is usually a good bet, honestly even "best player wins" isn't a bad strategy. We have over a decade of LeBron dominating the East to show us that.
It really depends on the kind of depth your talking about. Your 10th man doesn't matter that much, but the 4th and 5th guys in your starting/closing lineup are extremely important even if you have the two best players. If those guys have a weakness, whether it's defense or offense, it will be exploited in the playoffs to the Nth degree - there's no way to hide it. That's the kind of depth that will hurt the Nets because guys like Curry, Brown, and Drummond will get a lot of minutes even though they are one-dimensional.
It seems to me that ranking all the players on both sides, and not counting those who might be inactive (eg. Simmons and TL) for much of the series, an objective fan would likely rank them something like this:
- KD/JT
- KD/JT
- Kyrie
- Jaylen
Yes, there are different types of “depth” when discussing playoff rotations. The depth that is critical to a teams success in the post-season are the 3 to 6 (assuming you have the 1-2 in place) while the depth that is less valuable/barely valuable in the playoffs are the 7-11 whose greatest value come during the regular season over 82 games when asked to step into larger roles due to injury.
.
Am I missing anyone?
Remove TL and Simmons and I think the Celtics have the next 3 players by a fairly sizable gap. The next 5, I think Seth Curry/Bruce Brown and Grant are in…those 9 and 10 spots are kind of tough to figure out. I guess Drummond and Theis?
Am I missing anyone?
I don’t have anything to back this up other than memory but I always thought that it was top 8 in the playoffs? 7 and 8 less valuable than top 6 but will still play enough minutes to matter.
It’s the teams (like Memphis this year) that have advantages in talent from the 9yh man after where that impact is really diminished in the playoffs
The April games were the last 5 regular season games for BRK were (in reverse order):
IND (gave up 126)
CLE
NYK
HOU
ATL (gave up 122 in a loss)
Before that, they gave up 120 in an OT loss to MIL, 123 to DET, 110 to CHA, and 132 to MEM.
They also held MIA to 95 but that was in the middle of MIA's mini-implosion.
My memory from the playoff seeding threads is that BRK had the easiest closing schedule of all of the teams who were still in the playoff/play-in. I think BRK's DRtg in April has a lot to do with schedule.
Totally agree on Memphis being built for the regular season. I mean you’re going to use 8 but those 7th and 8th men aren’t or at least shouldn’t be that impactful if they are in over their heads on any given night. They can still contribute with energy, defense or whatever but they aren’t going to hurt you as much simply bc the starters should be going 40 mpg from here on out when needed.
Yeah it's small sample, I just found it amusing. But the bigger point was... this isn't a terrible D, it's around average and the data backs that up.
I know BOS probably has the toughest first round matchup (although my gut reaction is that TOR is going to give PHI a real series) but looking at it the other way, I'm sure BRK would have rather have played the other teams than BOS. BOS is the one team which has multiple guys who can credibly guard KD and KI. Most teams have to blitz KI and BOS didn't do that much in the game they played IIRC and KI didn't have a great shooting night. BOS also has the personnel to exploit BRK's weaknesses on defense.
Also, I think BOS has more talent to make adjustments than BRK does, unless Simmons finds a legit miracle worker.
Like everyone else I think BOS is the better team and should win. I'm hoping for a quick victory so they can rest up for MIL (and other reasons). As someone said upthread, we should learn a lot about this series pretty quickly. I don't think it's going to be one of those series where teams make adjustments and then adjustments are made to adjustments (etc.). It's going to come down to whether BOS is getting good shots (which they should) and whether they are making them (which they also should).
Also, I think BOS has more talent to make adjustments than BRK does, unless Simmons finds a legit miracle worker.
Like everyone else I think BOS is the better team and should win. I'm hoping for a quick victory so they can rest up for MIL (and other reasons). As someone said upthread, we should learn a lot about this series pretty quickly. I don't think it's going to be one of those series where teams make adjustments and then adjustments are made to adjustments (etc.). It's going to come down to whether BOS is getting good shots (which they should) and whether they are making them (which they also should).
Maybe, but I look at the past and I see a lot of bad 4-6's on many a contender who did just fine.
The Nets have KD and Kyrie, Seth Curry is a solid playoff starter. Honestly the roster depth is probably better than it was last year once Harden got hurt and they still came inches from beating the eventual champs.
The better your #1 and #2 the less well rounded 3-7 players matter and the more you can just have skillset players. Curry for example, he's a knockdown shooter who is not good but not Fournier/Kemba bad on D, Brown is a solid role-player in the Grant Williams mold, Drummond is a rebounder who can kinda rim-protect, Claxton can defend and rebound some.... that's a dangerous team when the #1 is probably the best player in the NBA and the #2 is a top tier PG.
I think if you were ranking (healthy) players by tier in this series it goes like this:
Tier 1- KD
Tier 2- Tatum
Tier 3- Kyrie
Tier 4- Jaylen
Tier 5- Smart
Tier 6- Horford/White/Curry/Brown/Claxton
Tier 7- Drummond/Mills/Grant/PP/Theis
Tier 8- Dragic/Blake
That's around what DARKO would rank them as well (DARKO might put KD and Tatum in a tier, but I'm dubious about making that call). Boston has the best 3rd guy, and you could argue that our tier 6 guys are the top 2 in the tier for sure, but not sure that's a HUGE advantage compared with having the better #1 guy and better #2 guy.
Talent-wise these are similar teams. The Nets have the better top 2, the Celtics have a decent 3-6 advantage, but it's not massive.
I guess I just disagree with you fundamentally about the Nets depth. They have role players who are thrust into starting positions. It's not so much that they have Curry OR Brown OR Drummond OR Claxton - it's that they have all four, and all of them are going to play huge minutes. Brown and Drummond/Claxton are going to cause issues on offense while Curry and Drummond will cause issues on defense. In the playoffs I'd rather have someone like Derrick White, who's a plus on D and can do some things on O, rather than Curry who's a great shooter but a liability on D at the highest levels - like ideally Brown/Tatum are just going to keep trying to get Curry switched onto them so they can cook. And I'd probably rather have Theis than Drummond in the playoffs because he can at least threaten to shoot and is better at switching on defense - I just don't know what Andre Drummond does when it's Brown-Tatum-Smart-White-Horford out there (and that small-ish lineup isn't something that the Nets are equipped to attack on offense).
To me, not having a weakness is more important than having certain strengths in the playoffs. I don't recall a contender's 3-5 being as bad as Brown-Curry-Drummond (or sub Claxton). KD would have to significantly outplay Tatum to make that difference in starting depth irrelevant, I don't see that happening considering who they're playing against.
Ha, I guess you missed this article. But it looks like the talent evaluators on this board see things about the same way. CD is basically in agreement with this writer. He has Celtics with 4 of the top six players. That makes sense. KD is other worldly, and is the best player right now. JT makes sense as second. Then you have to go with Kyrie, then Jaylen. He has Smart, then Horford, then Brown, then White. Drummond and Claxton round out his top 10. He has a couple of honorable mentions for each team, but curiously neither of those two for the Celtics is Theis.