Silver Dollar - The Official NBA Betting Thread!
- Thread starter HomeRunBaker
- Start date
Yeah, down 20 to the Pistons at home is going to get a nice reset at the half.
Yeah. Ideally they get this down to 8-12 points heading into the 4th then hold the Pistons to like 14 points in the fourth.
Well cleaned up on the 3rd quarter unders, and Celtics to win at + money, as well as tailing HRB’s halftime/full game play.
But that OT killed my under Pistons team totals, and my under 4th quarters that were all comfortably going to hit. Fkers.
Oh well. Good to see the plays were directionally right, just another shit variance at the end with OT.
But that OT killed my under Pistons team totals, and my under 4th quarters that were all comfortably going to hit. Fkers.
Oh well. Good to see the plays were directionally right, just another shit variance at the end with OT.
meaningless three at the end of OT was bound to happen to crush that TT.
Checking my HRB notes… Does this set up a Celts fade tomorrow night at Toronto?
Checking my HRB notes… Does this set up a Celts fade tomorrow night at Toronto?
I lost the 4th Q under bc of OT too. First time getting burned that way, is that a normal Sportsbook rule where OT counts as the 4th?
I thought DraftKings was being ridiculous as always.
It's unlikely we get an overnight number due to the OT and likelihood of us going full blown load management tomorrow or at best be shorthanded.
@HomeRunBaker Celtics line posted as Celtics -11 tomorrow.
Is this a spot for a huge play on Raptors +11 or hold fire?
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Silly number considering several players could sit and coming off a bad habit game win. If I can find that number soon at my places I'll be playing.
PPHs don't have it yet. I'm at the mercy of the Seminole Tribe monopoly down here and Hard Rock Bet doesn't either. BOL is my offshore and not up there either.
Yeah there was no chance that 11 was staying up for more than a big bet or two.
If Toronto pulls off the road win a Raptor fade sets up like gold as they host Detroit less than 24 hours later.
Yes, I am thinking the Pistons will finally win it on Saturday with Raptors keyed up for Celtics and then traveling back to back. Looks like its in Detroit.
Before I went to bed I had one post 9.5 along with a limit that is 10% of my normal max. I see 8's now.
Now we just wait for the inactives.
Is there a scenario where you trim your exposure by putting money on the C's if the line moves to Raptors as favorites? or just ride the 10 points going into the game and look at live scenarios?
This is when the variables take a seat at the head of the table. The only way I'm going to give up equity on a bigger number, say I was able to get +10 (I wasn't but go with it), and Boston does one of those Full Monty's and sit like 5 of the Top-6 to where the line flips to the other side while affecting the Raptors mental prep (letdown effect). Those are the spots I love so grabbing a free roll 14-pt middle would be a no-brainer.
Some offshores had Toronto -4.5 earlier tonight. Check if your books have this posted. Pistons here remind me of the Spurs game vs Lakers last month that was a smash spot if Raptors can pull this out.
Even my PPH's had this in the 4Q. Never came off the board. Most books simply copy numbers but this was so weird.
One less guy for Detroit to worry about tonight:
https://x.com/shamscharania/status/1741146449197334603?s=46
https://x.com/shamscharania/status/1741146449197334603?s=46
80 point 3rd quarter in Tor/Det. You don’t see that too often!
oh I took under 235.5 and under 232.5 as we enter the 4th
oh I took under 235.5 and under 232.5 as we enter the 4th
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I was 238.5. Pistons inability to salt away a game is why they’ve lost 28 in a row I guess.
160 point half is something else.
Still a nice night with them covering!
Yeah, great call on Pistons all!
and 160 point 2nd half. Wow! I’m not even mad (Anchorman)
Very nice result! Same thing tonight as last night although I doubt we get it (but didn't expect it last night either)....
If you can find a Pelicans number while the Lakers are still playing tonight it's an auto-grab at anything reasonable (up to -6.5). Unlikely both AD and LeBron play both legs of their B2B, decent chance they both sit, and a difficult game tonight in Minnesota prior to the nearly 3 hour flight. Maybe FanDuel is post a rogue line so figured I'd post.
If you can find a Pelicans number while the Lakers are still playing tonight it's an auto-grab at anything reasonable (up to -6.5). Unlikely both AD and LeBron play both legs of their B2B, decent chance they both sit, and a difficult game tonight in Minnesota prior to the nearly 3 hour flight. Maybe FanDuel is post a rogue line so figured I'd post.
Pistons upcoming schedule.
1/1 @Houston
1/3 @Utah
1/5 @Golden State
1/7 @Denver
Talk about your exhales! Not only do you exhale....but you exhale on New Years Eve in Houston with a hungry Rockets team coming off 3 losses, including a tight one to Philly last night.
This is about as perfect a Smash Spot as you will find. I expect the number to open Houston -8 or -9. I'll be looking to play Houston and the Pistons TT Under. This feels like it could be a 112-85 type game.
1/1 @Houston
1/3 @Utah
1/5 @Golden State
1/7 @Denver
Talk about your exhales! Not only do you exhale....but you exhale on New Years Eve in Houston with a hungry Rockets team coming off 3 losses, including a tight one to Philly last night.
This is about as perfect a Smash Spot as you will find. I expect the number to open Houston -8 or -9. I'll be looking to play Houston and the Pistons TT Under. This feels like it could be a 112-85 type game.
Live Bettors!
Lakers-Wolves looking like a tight game to the finish and a 2H defensive grindfest. Took some Under 221.5 here in 3Q and will likely add more start of 4Q. I'll update.
Lakers-Wolves looking like a tight game to the finish and a 2H defensive grindfest. Took some Under 221.5 here in 3Q and will likely add more start of 4Q. I'll update.
Always is. But then again that’s why the 4th quarter trades at a premium. That and the Pistons/Raptors 33 point (!!!!!!! Seriously !!!!!!!) last minute.
Obv prefer a Lakers win but LeBron was a game time decision tonight with the bug they have going around can't see him going tomorrow and if he does being a shell of himself.None of my outs have it posted but my FanDuel runner at Mohegan Sun hit up some kiosks for me at -5.5
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Ugh just saw this.
Pels opened at -6 after overnight gifts and now up to -7 which is getting closer to fair market value until lineups come out.
@HomeRunBaker, do you still consider the Hawks/Wizards game an auto under play because of the start time with how crazy some of both team's games are on offense because of no defense?
When I decided to auto play 1H and FG of all non-prime time starts of more than an hour a couple years ago I literally put zero handicap into it aside from start time. They have been profitable year over year based only on market undervaluing (or not valuing at all) this phenomenon.
Now I'm more likely to step in and fire on one of these if I have other factors or variables in play. When I do I almost always post them here but aside from that I'll click 1H and FG for about 33% of a normal play on these games.
3pm start in NYC on New Years Day. I'd imagine this will resemble the South Beach Flu day games x4.
Tough matchup for NY with Hartenstein and Gibson's corpse as the bigs to deal w Gobert and Gobert/Towns but so many more reasons to like a lower scoring game here.
Yeah, you brought this up re Detroit in Houston but I can only imagine the start of this one in NYC. 1H seems likely to be a special smash.