Serious question: Would you be more likely to get a better return by trading Martin in the offseason, or by waiting for the trade deadline this year when every contender or wannabe contender is looking to add another quality bullpen arm? By waiting you run the risk of Martin getting injured or underperforming, but isn't he the kind of player that you could land a good prospect from a contender at the deadline?
Yes, I think you wait. The price goes up as playoff teams with a strong need are willing to GFIN. Then again, if the Sox wind up acquiring a couple starters and say a second baseman, and have good fortune in the first half, maybe they are competing for the playoffs themselves and you keep Martin.
Having Martin on your roster in 2024 is a $7.5M expense per Spotrac. Since it's still December, from one perspective you have more clubs able to fit him onto their roster and into their budget right now. On the other hand, at the trade deadline Martin will still be owed only about 1/3 of his salary, so contending teams that wouldn't bite at $7.5M may become buyers then. If you get a bidding war going between rivals (say Braves-Phillies), then you might extract a nice piece. I wouldn't expect a Jeff Bagwell coming to the Sox, though, and by waiting you are betting on Martin having a good season. You probably end up waiting, but it's worth seeing if you can get a compelling offer right now. If you not planning on being a playoff team in 2024, you also free up a roster spot for a younger player and the $7.5M by dealing him before the season starts.
Counterpoint: Martin is highly likely to regress in 24. He had a career low HR rate and his xERA and XFIP with two runs higher than his 1.05 ERA. Steamer projects him for a 3.72 ERA, which is pedestrian for a reliever. Smart trading partners will know this but there may be some teams now that hope he can replicate 23's performance next year
I have not been very enthusiastic about Giolito, since his 2022 was not very good and his second half last year was terrible. But, I didn't realize that he went through a divorce mid-season last year before being traded twice. So, if one was so inclined, I think there is a narrative that could explain his pretty good 1st half and his very, very bad second half of the season (24 home runs in 72 innings is remarkable). But I'm still not sure what happened in 2022 and I would hope the Sox would aim higher.
I dont know about Martin's value, but I wont be upset if Jansen, who comes fully anointed with Closer™ Powers, is leveraged into pitching (or other) help before the season.*
Yep and in the second headline it's the Met's trying to scoop the Sox for the same player. It's silly season.
The Sox still need 2 SP, and everybody left on the board has warts of some kind. Giolito slots in as someone who only costs money, and probably not that much of an investment, which would explain the O’s interest (and the Mets, who are reportedly looking to keep immediate costs down as they rebuild).
I feel like these two make sense, assuming Breslow/Bailey are the pitching guru's that they're being portrayed as from their Cubs ans Giants stints. If you could get Imanaga for something like 5yr/90m and Giolito for 2yr/38m, that is less of an outlay and long term commitment than JM or BS. If healthy, those two should give you a combined 300 IP with decent results. I'm not as worried about the HR rates for guys who don't really walk a lot of hitters. I'd rather see solo homers given up than dudes who continually have the bases clogged by giving up free passes. (hello Blake Snell)
In theory, yes, and I agree with you on Giolito.
Well yes every contract to a free agent pitcher is a gamble, that's why I said he is a way better bet than Giolito.
Earlier I posted about Imanaga's home run rates, which are almost all off his fastball which he (over)uses early in the count. His secondary pitches are excellent, so there would seem to be a relatively straightforward adjustment that could help significantly. Plus, despite the home runs, Imanaga had excellent overall numbers. So, I really don't see these two as similar pitchers, but I am interested if anyone has an obvious way to have Giolito return to his 2021 form?
I think Imanaga had excellent overall numbers because homers overall are more rare in Japan. If he came over here and his home run rate doubled (which is in the range of pitchers making the same transition) his numbers would look a lot less excellent.
I can't find the graphic, but the fastball issue was not just overall usage, but also sequence in the count and location (with too many home runs given up on inside fastballs to RH batters and, despite the excellent run, placing his 4 seam fastball low in the zone too often). I would agree that hitters are likely hunting fastballs against him because of his predictable pattern of usage. So, I think the solution would be adjust sequencing, location, and potentially throw the fastball less often. Here's a portion of what I posted earlier and another link with some good info:
Dude’s gotta learn to pitch backwards.
I literally could not agree with this more. Plus, at a certain level, with no QO attached, you’ve really lost nothing, besides call it $20m (per season) of JWH’s money that he’d only be using on this year (and next years) versions of guys like Duvall, Paxton, Joley Rodriguez, Mondessi anyway since they’re refusing to go after guys at the top of the market anyway.
So unless he you give Boras a Blank check for one of his clients….. we may be here for a while.
Sox looking at Yariel as starter
Which I basically would for Montgomery. As in - so you (per Heyman) are using Carlos Rodon as a comp for Montgomery. Here is Aaron Nola’s deal. Done.
I went around in my head on what I would think of this if I were another agent. Initially, I thought I’d be frustrated but it’s probably fine for all parties. Boras continues to set the markets and if another picture gets signed by some antsy team then it was probably on the agent’s terms. Believe we have actual negotiators here though, so this may be false.
True, though the one thing AI is good at is not making typos like this. I wonder if they are slipping in "human errors" to deflect the AI story. IMO the damage has been done and it's obvious that they became a joke when they got bought out by some billionaire jackass.
I've always thought that a great headline had the kind of creative or emotional impact that AI wouldn't get, but I can see AI being able to generate headlines that aren't inaccurate, misleading or otherwise terrible. That's something I guess?
Could *maybe* see this on a one year deal. Otherwise I’m banging the under all day.
I’m somewhat confused by Snell’s approach to this off-season. First he was rumored to only want to go back to Seattle (his home state). Then he was rumored to the Giants or Angels. Now he’s willing to take a shorter team deal with opts outs at a higher AAV which for a pitcher with his history of injury and uneven performance seems risky. Maybe the offers just aren’t there from the west coast teams so he wants to maintain some flexibility to see what those teams are willing to offer next offseason.
