2023 Starting Rotation

8slim

has trust issues
SoSH Member
Nov 6, 2001
25,272
Unreal America
Rich Hill isn't very good at baseball & is currently more valuable to the Pirates than the Red Sox.

Thank you for coming to my dissertation on Rich Hill.
Rich Hill chatter shows that people like to talk about things that are familiar.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 7, 2022
1,231
Garza has thrown 2ip once this year (his last outing) and has only twice gone to 40 pitches. Why wouldn't the Twins just use a) their normal line up or b) stack in the right handed hitters for for the bulk of the game anyway?

Not meant for any snark, it's meant to be a legitimate question.

I'm truly not saying whether the plan will work or not, nor do I have any real opinion. More, why is this "very smart". Wouldn't it be smarter to say "we're going to start open with Garza and then use the bull pen throughout the game."
 

LogansDad

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 15, 2006
30,177
Alamogordo
Garza has thrown 2ip once this year (his last outing) and has only twice gone to 40 pitches. Why wouldn't the Twins just use a) their normal line up or b) stack in the right handed hitters for for the bulk of the game anyway?

Not meant for any snark, it's meant to be a legitimate question.

I'm truly not saying whether the plan will work or not, nor do I have any real opinion. More, why is this "very smart". Wouldn't it be smarter to say "we're going to start open with Garza and then use the bull pen throughout the game."
Other teams are incredibly dumb, and the Red Sox need to take advantage of this.

Not sure what part of that you aren't getting.

(Substance-adjacent: That is likely what the Twins will do. Teams using openers are like 4 years behind, and I think most of the league has adjusted and/or are better prepared to deal with it.)
 

AB in DC

OG Football Writing
SoSH Member
Jul 10, 2002
14,045
Springfield, VA
But how many innings is Walter going to pitch, anyway? If he hits 5 IP today I'd be surprised. More likely Garza for 1-2, Walter for 3-4, then bullpen.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 7, 2022
1,231
Yeah, agree there @LogansDad. I just don't get why Cundall Tweets this is some "very smart" move by the Sox.

I'd assume the Twins will just use their regular line up (day game after a night game and all that).



Not for nothing, but I do like giving Walter regular turns through the rotation. Why not. Basically anything currently in the organization (I'm assuming Dermody is still gone) is better than seeing Ort listed as that day's starter.
 

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
16,075
Well, Garza has a 2.78 FIP against righties & 3.48 against lefties (4.36 xFIP to 5.06), so to the extent that they use more righties, that's good for Garza.

Stacking an opener & a bulk guy with opposite splits is the sensible play, even if it isn't like 8D chess.
 

Sin Duda

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
867
(B)Austin Texas
I forgot it was a day game until a few minutes ago and it's already over!? I almost didn't even bother with the box score of a 6-0 whitewashing, but wanted to see how the pitchers did. I see Walter went 6 2/3 and gave up 6 hits, 3 BBs and 3 ERs. Not bad, not great. But does this earn him a turn in 5 games?
 

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
16,075
I forgot it was a day game until a few minutes ago and it's already over!? I almost didn't even bother with the box score of a 6-0 whitewashing, but wanted to see how the pitchers did. I see Walter went 6 2/3 and gave up 6 hits, 3 BBs and 3 ERs. Not bad, not great. But does this earn him a turn in 5 games?
Doesn't seem like they have a lot of better options floating around, so might as well give him another chance. Hopefully after a better opening.

But this stat is pretty fun (although it was a lot more fun before I realized this just happened 2 years ago).

View: https://twitter.com/alexspeier/status/1671964122701766672?cxt=HHwWoICxrduggbQuAAAA
 

Sin Duda

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
867
(B)Austin Texas
But this stat is pretty fun (although it was a lot more fun before I realized this just happened 2 years ago).

View: https://twitter.com/alexspeier/status/1671964122701766672?cxt=HHwWoICxrduggbQuAAAA
Indeed! My brain couldn't calculate his ERA being under 5 given the 3 runs he gave up, but then I saw 6 2/3 IP. That's a kid who wants to give Chaim a reason to keep him up.

I'm rooting for Walter since (1) he went to a non-baseball school (Delaware), (2) he was a 29th round draft pick, and he's a lefty (like me). He seems to be doing all he can to chase his dream, and today one milestone of that dream came true.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 23, 2009
21,046
Maine
I forgot it was a day game until a few minutes ago and it's already over!? I almost didn't even bother with the box score of a 6-0 whitewashing, but wanted to see how the pitchers did. I see Walter went 6 2/3 and gave up 6 hits, 3 BBs and 3 ERs. Not bad, not great. But does this earn him a turn in 5 games?
He had a quality start without actually being the starter. You'd think that would earn him another turn but with the off-day falling where it does next week, they might try to send him down for a fresh bullpen arm and recall him after 10 days when they actually need another starter/bulk guy.
 

Sin Duda

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
867
(B)Austin Texas
He had a quality start without actually being the starter. You'd think that would earn him another turn but with the off-day falling where it does next week, they might try to send him down for a fresh bullpen arm and recall him after 10 days when they actually need another starter/bulk guy.
You are correct, he's already been sent down for Chris Murphy, but hopefully will have a good start in 5 days for Worcester and be up in 10 days to start for the parent club.
 

Sin Duda

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
867
(B)Austin Texas
Another high quality start by Bello. His ERA is down to 3.27, which would be just outside the AL top 10 if he had enough innings to qualify. He needs one more 7 inning start to qualify.
 

scottyno

late Bloomer
SoSH Member
Dec 7, 2008
11,395
Not sure if he'll make or not, but Bello deserves to be an all star. Pretty remarkable after the way his season started.
 

TFisNEXT

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 21, 2005
12,551
His time will come, I'm sure.
Yes it will. He already an ace-in-the-making with his extreme ground ball rate plus nearly a K per inning. He looks kind of like pre-2023 Framber….with that 9 K/9 3 BB/9 and extreme ground ball rate when looking under the hood.

2023 Framber took another step by upping the K rate a touch and lowering the BB rate below 2 per 9…that’s true ace stuff and there is every reason to believe Bello will make the same progression given his pure stuff and minor league track record of solid control.
 

Philip Jeff Frye

Member
SoSH Member
Oct 23, 2001
10,323
He’s healthy, so he kinda does.
Yeah, a pitcher with an ERA over 5.00 has certainly earned his spot.

He's been probably the most disappointing member of our pitching staff so far. Sale's injury was hardly a surprise, Pivetta and Kluber being bad was hardly outside the realm of possibility, but nobody could have expected this from Whitlock.
 

Max Power

thai good. you like shirt?
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2005
8,072
Boston, MA
Yeah, a pitcher with an ERA over 5.00 has certainly earned his spot.

He's been probably the most disappointing member of our pitching staff so far. Sale's injury was hardly a surprise, Pivetta and Kluber being bad was hardly outside the realm of possibility, but nobody could have expected this from Whitlock.
When a team only has 4 starters, being healthy is all you need to keep your spot no matter what your ERA is. I suppose you could flip him and Pivetta, but I don't think it would make much of a difference overall.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 13, 2021
12,520
Yeah, a pitcher with an ERA over 5.00 has certainly earned his spot.

He's been probably the most disappointing member of our pitching staff so far. Sale's injury was hardly a surprise, Pivetta and Kluber being bad was hardly outside the realm of possibility, but nobody could have expected this from Whitlock.
Why not? His numbers after the first time through the order aren’t good. He’s relatively inexperienced. I think some struggles were inevitable. But, he should stay in the rotation and learn to work through it, no? If you want to develop young starters, gotta let them pitch without thinking every bad start will get them demoted.
 

8slim

has trust issues
SoSH Member
Nov 6, 2001
25,272
Unreal America
Whitlock has to stay in the rotation. There’s no reason to remove him. Even aside from the lack of healthy staters, the team has to know if he’s worth counting on in 2024.

That being said, I wish he pitched better this season because we could really stand to count on him in 2024. Right now it’s Bello and…
 

Philip Jeff Frye

Member
SoSH Member
Oct 23, 2001
10,323
Yeah, I'm not saying that I want to see Pivetta or some minor leaguer in the rotation instead of Whitlock, but most people on this board seem to take it for granted that he's going to be a productive starter and the evidence so far is not great.
 

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
16,075
Whitlock has drastically improved his slider by turning it into a slower sweeper & it's been a pretty elite pitch this year. The problem is that his sinker & changeup are much less effective than they were last year. Both are 2 mph slower. I do have some concern about a 3-pitch pitcher starting.

His strikeouts are down, but his walk rate is excellent & it seems like he may be suffering from bad BABIP luck. Buuuut it's definitely something to keep an eye on over the rest of the season to see if this is the best usage for him. It could be that a role that would allow him to throw a couple mph faster would be better - or he could be dealing with some residual arm soreness that is limiting his velocity.
 

Jason Bae

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 23, 2021
642
NJ
Whitlock has drastically improved his slider by turning it into a slower sweeper & it's been a pretty elite pitch this year. The problem is that his sinker & changeup are much less effective than they were last year. Both are 2 mph slower. I do have some concern about a 3-pitch pitcher starting.

His strikeouts are down, but his walk rate is excellent & it seems like he may be suffering from bad BABIP luck. Buuuut it's definitely something to keep an eye on over the rest of the season to see if this is the best usage for him. It could be that a role that would allow him to throw a couple mph faster would be better - or he could be dealing with some residual arm soreness that is limiting his velocity.
Well put. It's not exactly a well kept secret that this team sucks defensively.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

Throw Momma From the Train
Moderator
SoSH Member
May 20, 2003
36,071
Deep inside Muppet Labs
Hea
Why not? His numbers after the first time through the order aren’t good. He’s relatively inexperienced. I think some struggles were inevitable. But, he should stay in the rotation and learn to work through it, no? If you want to develop young starters, gotta let them pitch without thinking every bad start will get them demoted.
He’s not particularly young any more and he’s increasingly ineffective in a starting role.

He’s shown less and less as a starter as time goes on and at some point the organization needs to reassess him. We all know the role he dominated in. The organization seems determined to force him into a role where he’s mediocre at best.

I said from the day they did it that taking him out of the multi inning relief ace role was a stupid error and nothing has happened since to change my POV on that. He hasn’t been very good as a starter.
 

Mueller's Twin Grannies

critical thinker
SoSH Member
Dec 19, 2009
9,402
He's not a free agent until '29, so odd shade. But obviously it's better for everyone if he can be a good starter.
It's closer than we realize and 5 more seasons as a starter, even a fourth or fifth (he seems to be project more like a third at best right now), will net him more money than being the closer for a team in the midst of a lean stretch.

Ironically, Whitlock reminds me a lot of the long relief closer of days gone by, the ones you'd hand the ball to in the 7th and have him finish the game or at least get it to extras if tied. Would love to see him step into that kind of role with the middle relief struggles they've had at times, but it's not a sustainable role and would almost be secondary to the one-inning closer that seems to be the market efficiency now, so being a starter is, as you say, the best option for all involved, though that means riding out the stamina and performance issues (prom night) for a bit longer.
 

Just a bit outside

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 6, 2011
8,139
Monument, CO
Whitlock has drastically improved his slider by turning it into a slower sweeper & it's been a pretty elite pitch this year. The problem is that his sinker & changeup are much less effective than they were last year. Both are 2 mph slower. I do have some concern about a 3-pitch pitcher starting.

His strikeouts are down, but his walk rate is excellent & it seems like he may be suffering from bad BABIP luck. Buuuut it's definitely something to keep an eye on over the rest of the season to see if this is the best usage for him. It could be that a role that would allow him to throw a couple mph faster would be better - or he could be dealing with some residual arm soreness that is limiting his velocity.
The radio broadcast was talking about how he didn’t have his slider in his last start against the Twins and didn’t have his change up tonight. If one pitch isn’t working Whitlock is in trouble because his other two aren’t good enough as a two pitch pitcher. He really needs all three working.
 

scottyno

late Bloomer
SoSH Member
Dec 7, 2008
11,395
It's closer than we realize and 5 more seasons as a starter, even a fourth or fifth (he seems to be project more like a third at best right now), will net him more money than being the closer for a team in the midst of a lean stretch.

Ironically, Whitlock reminds me a lot of the long relief closer of days gone by, the ones you'd hand the ball to in the 7th and have him finish the game or at least get it to extras if tied. Would love to see him step into that kind of role with the middle relief struggles they've had at times, but it's not a sustainable role and would almost be secondary to the one-inning closer that seems to be the market efficiency now, so being a starter is, as you say, the best option for all involved, though that means riding out the stamina and performance issues (prom night) for a bit longer.
How exactly would being a #4 or #5 starter make him more money than being an elite closer? Especially with the trend of starters pitching less and less.
 

8slim

has trust issues
SoSH Member
Nov 6, 2001
25,272
Unreal America
Yeah, I'm not saying that I want to see Pivetta or some minor leaguer in the rotation instead of Whitlock, but most people on this board seem to take it for granted that he's going to be a productive starter and the evidence so far is not great.
I do agree that it seems some folks are considering Whitlock and Houck to be solid starters for the next few seasons. Not sure either has earned that confidence yet.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

Throw Momma From the Train
Moderator
SoSH Member
May 20, 2003
36,071
Deep inside Muppet Labs
The radio broadcast was talking about how he didn’t have his slider in his last start against the Twins and didn’t have his change up tonight. If one pitch isn’t working Whitlock is in trouble because his other two aren’t good enough as a two pitch pitcher. He really needs all three working.
If he needs all three to work to be an effective starter, he’s not an effective starter. He can and has been a dominant reliever already though.
 

Fishy1

Head Mason
SoSH Member
Nov 10, 2006
6,261
Yeah, I don't think Whitlock has looked amazing out there, but 18 starts is little enough time to prove much. Peripherals look really good this year, suggesting some bad luck. His K/BB is nuts, and he's had a rough go with balls in play.

Adjusting to pitching in the bigs is really hard. Lester had a rough start his first two seasons. Buchholz had an ERA of nearly seven his first half season. Whitlock has had all of 9 starts this year. In 9 starts last year, his ERA was 4.15. That's perfectly cromulent, especially for a guy who was starting in the bigs for the first time.

I think patience is in order, and pulling him from the rotation would be premature. I'm not sure he'll make it as a starter, but given what Pivetta and Kluber have looked like, his peripherals, and his seeming luck (nevermind the defense behind him), he deserves a shot to see if he can stick.
 

Fishy1

Head Mason
SoSH Member
Nov 10, 2006
6,261
The Buchholz point doesn’t hold; he got sent down to the minors in that first full year and he had never relieved in his career before that.
I don't follow your argument, if there is one.

Edit: let me try to divine your reply. My point is starting in the big leagues is an adjustment which a lot of pitchers struggle with before settling in. Were you responding to that? Do you have an response to the rest of my argument?
 
Last edited:

AB in DC

OG Football Writing
SoSH Member
Jul 10, 2002
14,045
Springfield, VA
I don't see any reason to make the starter-vs-reliever decision this year. See how he does the rest of the season, bring in some bodies during spring training to compete for the #4 and #5 slots, and let the chips fall where they may. He wouldn't be the first failed starter to go (back) to a reliever role.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 7, 2022
1,231
Put me in the "he has to stay in the rotation this year" camp, at least the way the team has been run and seems poised to continue being run. If for no other reason than there isn't anyone on the roster or in the high minors that is a reasonable bet to replace him and do any better.

His 4.28 FIP is a good bit better than his actual ERA, and as others have noted, the team is totally inept defensively. Plus, as others have mentioned, you have to start seeing if Bello (all signs point to yes), Houck (signs point to "probably") and Whitlock (similar to Houck) belong in the rotation or not for the 2024/2025-2030 seasons.

The team absolutely needs dependable starting pitching. Even in the "good years" the team has been sorely lacking in good starters. Simply looking at ERA+, 2021 had 3 above average starters (Eovaldi at 125; Houck at 113; Pivetta at 103); 2022 regressed to two (Wacha at 128; Eovaldi at 110); this year we have two (Paxton at 144; Bello at 140. Crawford's ERA as a starter is 5.70; Sale has been exactly average, though who knows if / when he's going to be back).

The team this year isn't / wasn't built to be good, and the most important thing for the season continues to be establishing who is and is not part of the core for the future.

If someone wants to say that we only have one piece we all feel really good about for the core of the 2024+ rotation (Bello), it's tough to point to any data to strongly disagree with that. But since I find it highly unlikely the team is going to do something like trade for Corbin Burnes while signing Aaron Nola or Julio Urias in the off-season, you're probably better off just continuing to let Whitlock, Houck (and Bello) go through their growing pains in a season that needed everything to go right to just make the playoffs and find out if it's more likely you need to find a 1, 3, 4 and 5 this off-season or "just" a 1 and a 3, for instance.

*In both scenarios, I'm calling Bello a 2, in the second, I'm saying that I hope Whitlock and Houck can be back of the rotation starters, which doesn't seem unreasonable since they have a 4.20 and 4.28 FIP, respectively.
 
Last edited:

Fishy1

Head Mason
SoSH Member
Nov 10, 2006
6,261
I agree with the above. I'm not sure he is a lock (sorry) for the rotation, just that he should be given lots of rope. He had some bad luck on balls in play last night, including a few dinky ground ball singles and a ball that ate up Casas -- he obviously also gave up an awful lot of loud contact.

Besides the peripherals I discussed above, there is some good stuff in his savant data, and some concerning stuff. The average exit velocity and xBA, the high barrel rate, indicate that maybe the BABIP should be expected. On the other hand, he gets terrific chase rate and a good whiff percentage, so I wonder if maybe given the fact that he's got one of the lowest BB% in the bigs (we're talking top %1), he could afford to live out of the zone more, not less. The hanging slider for a home run last night to Segura last night was an awful pitch, for example. He was doing a good job burying it away to right-handers otherwise.

Personally I can't wait to see Story back at SS, Ceddane in CF, and uh, either Casas improving hugely at first or some other option.

66592
 

LogansDad

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 15, 2006
30,177
Alamogordo
I agree with the above. I'm not sure he is a lock (sorry) for the rotation, just that he should be given lots of rope. He had some bad luck on balls in play last night, including a few dinky ground ball singles and a ball that ate up Casas -- he obviously also gave up an awful lot of loud contact.

Besides the peripherals I discussed above, there is some good stuff in his savant data, and some concerning stuff. The average exit velocity and xBA, the high barrel rate, indicate that maybe the BABIP should be expected. On the other hand, he gets terrific chase rate and a good whiff percentage, so I wonder if maybe given the fact that he's got one of the lowest BB% in the bigs (we're talking top %1), he could afford to live out of the zone more, not less. The hanging slider for a home run last night to Segura last night was an awful pitch, for example. He was doing a good job burying it away to right-handers otherwise.

Personally I can't wait to see Story back at SS, Ceddane in CF, and uh, either Casas improving hugely at first or some other option.

View attachment 66592
I think working out of the zone HAS to be the next step in his development. His profile is such that being in the zone too much is really not great for him.

The team defense is NOT helping him right now, but it isn't the only issue. He is so focused on not walking people that he is throwing way too many hittable pitches... pitches he might be able to get away with more if batters had to be aware of him going out of the zone.
 

Fishy1

Head Mason
SoSH Member
Nov 10, 2006
6,261
I think working out of the zone HAS to be the next step in his development. His profile is such that being in the zone too much is really not great for him.

The team defense is NOT helping him right now, but it isn't the only issue. He is so focused on not walking people that he is throwing way too many hittable pitches... pitches he might be able to get away with more if batters had to be aware of him going out of the zone.
Yeah, totally agree. Hopefully the coaching is aware, and I imagine they are. And to be fair to him, he's been great about not walking people... it's just that with a chase rate like that, he can afford to throw his offspeed stuff and even his fastball away from hitters.