2023 NBA Playoffs

Euclis20

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I think Doc is exaggerating and Embiid probably isn't hurt as badly as he is making it out to seem.
He does seem to be shouting limitations from the rooftops. Usually coaches are pretty vague about this stuff, especially when the team doesn't know for sure what's happening. Either it's a big bluff, or they are getting their excuses ready mighty early. There's still a chance they might not have to play for another week, so it wouldn't be the biggest shock.
 

lovegtm

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He does seem to be shouting limitations from the rooftops. Usually coaches are pretty vague about this stuff, especially when the team doesn't know for sure what's happening. Either it's a big bluff, or they are getting their excuses ready mighty early. There's still a chance they might not have to play for another week, so it wouldn't be the biggest shock.
This really feels like they're trying to break the bad news slowly, rather than sandbag.
 

Devizier

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I knew there were more I just couldn’t think of them at the time. The Bridges one, kid from Philly whose mother worked for the Sixers, is kinda hysterical in hindsight.
Kind of terrifying to think of what Philly could have been without that trade. I mean, the Fultz for Tatum deal is still their blackest mark, but they fucked up so many other times too!
 

fairlee76

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The only question in Miami this morning should be who's footing the bill for the giant statue of Jimmy Butler they should be erecting downtown.
Yep. That was amazing. Not sure there is another non-Celtic I have enjoyed watching more these last few years.

And I know I am supposed to be rooting for the Lakers to lose against anyone, but watching the Grizzlies falter has been a blast too. So much "doing it for the 'gram" on that team.
 

johnmd20

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I would still favor Bucks to win series---but it's now close to a toss-up for all the reasons others have noted.

Having to go 7 (or lose) and then face a meat-grinder against Knicks is a great way to soften up the Bucks.
Heat have to be favored to win the series up 3-1. Probably not by a ton but they must be the favorites now.

I just looked it up. Heat are -150 to win the series. The sounds about right. All they need to do is win one.
 

JCizzle

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Kind of terrifying to think of what Philly could have been without that trade. I mean, the Fultz for Tatum deal is still their blackest mark, but they fucked up so many other times too!
They're a couple of easily avoidable decisions away from being more dominant than the GSW run. These decisions aren't like "well, if team XYZ had just drafted Giannis!".
 

Ed Hillel

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Doc never really seemed like the coy type when he was here. He was pretty open with injuries and such.
 

Ed Hillel

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Either way, Celts gotta finish this off tonight. Allowing extra rest for Embiid would be a sin.
 

radsoxfan

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That's kinda weird for just a stretch of his LCL. Rad can speculate better than I can, but it sounds like there's something else going on like an accompanying meniscus tear.
Never know if you're getting the entire story for sure on these media reports.

An isolated LCL sprain is not a common injury (though I strangely see it pretty often since I read for one of the main MMA orthopedic surgeons and they get this all the time from some maneuver I don't know the name of).

Without seeing the images or knowing the grade, hard to add much. I'd expect if it's some moderate grade partial tear they figure they should let it rest as long as possible and are lucky they have a nice break in the schedule.

As long as it's on the low to moderate end of the spectrum, giving it time to calm down + a brace he probably will be close to full strength unless something else is going on.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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I thought about putting some money on the Bucks to win the series this morning figuring Miami exuberance would be high this morning. And for a few dollars it would be an emotional hedge -- something to take the edge off the disappointment if the Bucks come back. I was thinking maybe it would be like +185 or even +200. Down to +110 on Fanduel.

Seems kind of crazy. But I guess people are thinking last night was kind of the high water mark for the Heat. I guess I get it -- Bucks have two at home and the win last night took a Herculean effort but still it seems like the Bucks should be bigger underdogs.
 

jmcc5400

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The whole idea of a Knicks-Heat playoff match makes me giddy. I wonder if Jeff Van Gundy can be persuaded to make a guest appearance wrapped around Bam Adebayo’s leg.
I was thinking that also. Back to the 90s (which is probably where the scores will be). Still think at least one of Milwaukee or Cleveland get up off the mat.
 

snowmanny

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Kind of terrifying to think of what Philly could have been without that trade. I mean, the Fultz for Tatum deal is still their blackest mark, but they fucked up so many other times too!
They were never getting Tatum. I mean, I am assuming Ainge knew the Sixers were taking Fultz and The Lakers were taking Ball. He had more courage than I would have to make that trade, but I also assume that absent the Sixers trade Tatum goes 1 to the C’s.
 

PedroKsBambino

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Heat have to be favored to win the series up 3-1. Probably not by a ton but they must be the favorites now.

I just looked it up. Heat are -150 to win the series. The sounds about right. All they need to do is win one.
Yeah, I totally get that is the vegas line; Ringer has Heat with 80% chance to win series now, assume other analytics same. I just think, personally, Bucks have more in them than those numbers show. But I get it....and I'm not really a bettor so easy to talk about it I know
 

Red Averages

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Yeah, I totally get that is the vegas line; Ringer has Heat with 80% chance to win series now, assume other analytics same. I just think, personally, Bucks have more in them than those numbers show. But I get it....and I'm not really a bettor so easy to talk about it I know
For sure. The problem though is let's say they are 80% chance to win game 5, 60% to win @ Miami and 80% to win at home in Game 7, that's still 38% for the series.

That said, I'm also in "I'll believe it when I see it" mode. Bucks win game 5 in a rout, then it really feels like the pressure is on Miami to win at home in Game 7, where they are likely still underdogs.
 

Auger34

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What makes it even worse is that they didn't really choose Harris over Butler, they chose Simmons over Butler. See: https://nba.nbcsports.com/2022/05/12/report-76ers-felt-they-must-choose-between-ben-simmons-and-jimmy-butler/.

IIRC from what Butler said on Reddick's podcast, he insinuated that both Embiid and Simmons went to PHI management to complain about Butler. From what Embiid has said since then, maybe Embiid felt like he had to support Simmons. But Simmons really screwed up PHI in a whole lot of different ways.
I remember that interview. I got the sense that Redick liked Butler but I also got the sense that he completely understood why others didn’t like Jimmy or grew tired of him.

IIRC, Butler had a few instances where he tried to paint himself as a complete victim or can you believe they did that to me? And each time Redick was like ehhhh…I can sort of see where they were coming from
 

Cellar-Door

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Heat have to be favored to win the series up 3-1. Probably not by a ton but they must be the favorites now.

I just looked it up. Heat are -150 to win the series. The sounds about right. All they need to do is win one.
Honestly think it's low, should probably be like -200.
 

radsoxfan

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The Celtics have been darlings on 538/RAPTOR for a few years now and it hasn’t planned out. But still interesting to me to see how the they think teams stack up.

Currently by their player ratings, Celtics have a 32% chance to win a title and the Sixers have a 20% chance. Nuggets next at 14%. The Bucks and Heat are tied at 4% (though Miami 79% to win this series).

Things are even more top heavy on the Team Elo team rankings with the Celtics at 35%, Sixers at 21%, and Nuggets next at 6%.

What a mammoth ECF semis this is shaping up to be.
 

Deathofthebambino

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Apr 12, 2005
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The Celtics have been darlings on 538/RAPTOR for a few years now and it hasn’t planned out. But still interesting to me to see how the they think teams stack up.

Currently by their player ratings, Celtics have a 32% chance to win a title and the Sixers have a 20% chance. Nuggets next at 14%. The Bucks and Heat are tied at 4% (though Miami 79% to win this series).

Things are even more top heavy on the Team Elo team rankings with the Celtics at 35%, Sixers at 21%, and Nuggets next at 6%.

What a mammoth ECF semis this is shaping up to be.
Speaking of 538, Nate Silver is out:

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/digital/nate-silver-leaves-538-abc-news-disney-layoffs-1235401689/
 

Euclis20

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The Celtics have been darlings on 538/RAPTOR for a few years now and it hasn’t planned out. But still interesting to me to see how the they think teams stack up.

Currently by their player ratings, Celtics have a 32% chance to win a title and the Sixers have a 20% chance. Nuggets next at 14%. The Bucks and Heat are tied at 4% (though Miami 79% to win this series).

Things are even more top heavy on the Team Elo team rankings with the Celtics at 35%, Sixers at 21%, and Nuggets next at 6%.

What a mammoth ECF semis this is shaping up to be.
We're in line for a bunch of great series in the second round. Celtics/Sixers has been in the cards for about 2 months now and has been one of the leagues best rivalries over the last half decade, Nuggets/Suns would be a fight between the #1 seed and the team favored to come out of the west since the trade deadline and Warriors/Lakers is a rekindling of the best finals rivalry since Bird and Magic. The other EC series is harder to figure, but Heat/Knicks would be both historic to see and terrible to watch.
 

Nator

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Watching all of these other match-ups makes me feel extremely confident in the Celtics.
This doesn't sound like a guy who will magically get healthy.

His cardio conditioning will also be deteriorating rapidly.
Reports are circulating that Embiid was sitting in a puddle of his own sweat while wearing an oxygen mask by the end of that film session.
 

benhogan

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This doesn't sound like a guy who will magically get healthy.

His cardio conditioning will also be deteriorating rapidly.
Yep, he was gasping for air in those intense Brooklyn games squaring off against Nic Claxton :rolleyes:

Granite is getting jazzed for the Sixers series. Go get your $$$ G
 

HomeRunBaker

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This reminds me of the 2018 Pats being 3-5 on the road having beaten no one and going on the road in Arrowhead to win the AFC. For veteran championship teams it may just not matter.
Warriors have an enormous advantage over the Kings in a Game 7 regardless of venue. Sacramento needed to split this last road trip and end it early…..the longer it goes the more trouble they will be in (imo of course).
 

Sam Ray Not

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You can set aside the ‘22-23 Warriors abysmal road record, the championship experience of their core, and their road wins in 27 straight playoff series. Team X’s home-road splits are largely random and not very predictive.
 

j-man

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philly-bos shouild be great in really the ECF because not sold on milw also not sold on ny and mia
den-phx shouild be a 7-gamer
lal gs-sac i have to favor the lakers barf

on the West pho has the most talent LAL has the mo GS is never dead and denver is too up/down to win 3 times in a row
 

nighthob

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I mean, the Fultz for Tatum deal is still their blackest mark, but they fucked up so many other times too!
I mean as bad as it sounds on paper, the draft pick they ended up trading was pretty worthless and they were always going to end up with Fultz because Boston was always going to draft Tatum. Had they done nothing (tradewise) they still would have had a draft bust (in a draft full of them).
 

Ed Hillel

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I mean as bad as it sounds on paper, the draft pick they ended up trading was pretty worthless and they were always going to end up with Fultz because Boston was always going to draft Tatum. Had they done nothing (tradewise) they still would have had a draft bust (in a draft full of them).
Well, it did lead to the Celtics acquiring Derek White, so far from worthless for them!
 

Euclis20

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I mean as bad as it sounds on paper, the draft pick they ended up trading was pretty worthless and they were always going to end up with Fultz because Boston was always going to draft Tatum. Had they done nothing (tradewise) they still would have had a draft bust (in a draft full of them).
Fine point: The trade was an excellent move by Philly, given they started with the 3rd pick (and 3 of the top 4 picks were massive busts) and ended up with #1, with the cost just being Romeo Langford. The massive failure was choosing Fultz, not the trade.
 

nighthob

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Well, it did lead to the Celtics acquiring Derek White, so far from worthless for them!
I mean Boston just got salary filler from the trade. (At the time I thought that Ainge had outsmarted himself because I thought the '18 draft was the better of the two and a mid lottery pick in '18 would be better than a mid lottery pick the next year.) From Philly's standpoint they traded the right to pay a draft bust in order to draft an even bigger bust. But Fultz was always going to end up there.
 

dhellers

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KAT can do clever things followed by stupid things followed by ....

Minn has kept it close all game, so a lost wouldn't be as pathetic as the Celts loss.,,,
otoh a 6 point swing in the last 3 minutes would qualify!

But if losing a close out game at home is the standard, Phoenix may also oblige
 
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HomeRunBaker

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When was the last time a Champion cruised to a title uncontested without any obstacles in their path? When was the last Celtics championship that didn’t have Game 7’s and multiple Game 7’s along the way? One game is one game. Red’s teams allowed several .500 teams take them to 7-games during their run.

One game is one game.
 

dhellers

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When was the last time a Champion cruised to a title uncontested without any obstacles in their path? When was the last Celtics championship that didn’t have Game 7’s and multiple Game 7’s along the way? One game is one game. Red’s teams allowed several .500 teams take them to 7-games during their run.

One game is one game.
But Red's teams almost always won. This team has yet to prove it on the biggest starge.
That may not be fair, but it explains why our attitude is prone to turn negative.
 

Euclis20

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When was the last time a Champion cruised to a title uncontested without any obstacles in their path? When was the last Celtics championship that didn’t have Game 7’s and multiple Game 7’s along the way? One game is one game. Red’s teams allowed several .500 teams take them to 7-games during their run.

One game is one game.
I'm all for level-headedness and positivity, but every single season 16 teams have at least a couple of really bad playoff losses. Only 1 of those 16 wins the title. The Celtics put themselves in a really lousy position here - they gave a defeated team life, and now Atlanta goes home with their 2nd best player coming back and the knowledge that they can win in Boston. If Atlanta wins game 6 at home, the pressure ratchets up 1000% for this Celtics team.

Best case, we just put ourselves behind the 8-ball for round 2 by giving Embiid a couple extra days to rest. I'm not too down on this team moving forward, but this was a brutal loss.
 

dhellers

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I'm all for level-headedness and positivity, but every single season 16 teams have at least a couple of really bad playoff losses. Only 1 of those 16 wins the title. The Celtics put themselves in a really lousy position here - they gave a defeated team life, and now Atlanta goes home with their 2nd best player coming back and the knowledge that they can win in Boston. If Atlanta wins game 6 at home, the pressure ratchets up 1000% for this Celtics team.

Best case, we just put ourselves behind the 8-ball for round 2 by giving Embiid a couple extra days to rest. I'm not too down on this team moving forward, but this was a brutal loss.
One can argue that Jaylen's lacksadasical D on the Toronto 3 pointer was a major factor for the celts running out of steam against GSW -- Toronto likely loses in 5, and a better rested Celts might of been able to eliminate Bucks and Miami in less than 7

The point: as a non-overwhelming favorite with championship aspirations: things like "blowing a lead means you play 1 or 2 extra games" is NOT trivial.

And to DJ ... sigh, looks like LAC running out of steam
 

Auger34

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I'm all for level-headedness and positivity, but every single season 16 teams have at least a couple of really bad playoff losses. Only 1 of those 16 wins the title. The Celtics put themselves in a really lousy position here - they gave a defeated team life, and now Atlanta goes home with their 2nd best player coming back and the knowledge that they can win in Boston. If Atlanta wins game 6 at home, the pressure ratchets up 1000% for this Celtics team.

Best case, we just put ourselves behind the 8-ball for round 2 by giving Embiid a couple extra days to rest. I'm not too down on this team moving forward, but this was a brutal loss.
Exactly.

Who knows what happens but at the very least they gave Embiid more rest to heal his knee. Maybe it doesn’t matter at all and the Celtics are just better. Maybe it does and Embiid can now play at a higher level.

It honestly doesn’t matter. That was a shit loss, no matter how you try and slice it