Twins, Rays, White Sox and Orioles all win tonight (Mariners still playing) ... pretty much the worst possible scenario for those holding onto The Improbable Dream on a night where teams spend one of their games in hand on the Red Sox
Or for Toronto to right itself. WTF is up with that team?4 games back now. Toronto's in something of a tailspin right now - SP has been pretty suspect. I think next week's series is going to be a great opportunity to make up some ground.
Gain some ground on Toronto, certainly. If only there weren't five other teams involved4 games back now. Toronto's in something of a tailspin right now - SP has been pretty suspect. I think next week's series is going to be a great opportunity to make up some ground.
That's gonna be a pretty heavy lift for the Red Sox. They've been utterly brutal against the AL East so far this year. 15-30 record against the AL East while 43-29 against the rest of MLB.25 games left against Toronto, Baltimore and TB
7 games left against NY I believe
KC, CInn, Tex on the schedule
It will all depend on the head to head
It's the only way it can happen. When there are 6 teams in front of you for 3 spots, you're not going to back into a playoff spot by having four of them collapse. The Red Sox need to win a ton of games, many of which will be against those 6 teams.Is this a win 3 (actually 5 of 6) to gain 1, with the same number of teams still above plan a winner?
The slow roll is underway!
That seems pretty irrelevant to the Red Sox at this point. They need to reach the point where they're battling for 3rd place in the AL East, then maybe they can worry about what teams in other divisions are doing. With the unbalanced schedule, at least one 2nd place team from the West or Central will be in the playoffs, which means the 4th place team in the East will be ending their season October 5th. Boston needs to get past two teams in their own division.Thought we’d gain on the Guardians tonight but a dropped third strike on the third strikeout of the 8th led to them scoring 6. Ugh. Gotta keep winning and hope a few of the others falter somewhere.
Yes, they almost definitely have to beat 2 teams in their division (currently 2 behind Orioles, 4 behind Rays & Blue Jays), but unless they beat all 3, they also have to beat 2 of Mariners (5.5 behind)/Guardians (4 behind)/Twins (3 behind)/White Sox (1.5 behind).That seems pretty irrelevant to the Red Sox at this point. They need to reach the point where they're battling for 3rd place in the AL East, then maybe they can worry about what teams in other divisions are doing. With the unbalanced schedule, at least one 2nd place team from the West or Central will be in the playoffs, which means the 4th place team in the East will be ending their season October 5th. Boston needs to get past two teams in their own division.
This shaping up as a worst case scenario. The team will not be in the playoffs but just over the tax threshold.Five back with 43 games to play.... not impossible, but very unlikely.
They could waive Eovaldi and / or JD and hope they get claimed. Not sure if it’s enough to get them under?This shaping up as a worst case scenario. The team will not be in the playoffs but just over the tax threshold.
He can duck a wrench but eventually he will learn to catch a ball or else . . .Not sure Duran is the best choice for catcher given his penchant for losing balls in flight.
Their best reliever last season gave up the lead in the 8th. Also not really sure how you left out one of the best relievers in baseball this year, or Sawamura who doesn't appear at all to be a "mid 4-5 era guy". Or how Houck is a maybe when he's been fantastic since they put him in the pen full time.The reason why they won't make the playoffs this year is due, largely to the fact the bullpen sucks. The amount of blown saves is astounding, especially in the first half of the year.
It's the reason they didn't make the world series last year. If you could hold a lead in the eighth inning of game four, without turning to a gassed starter (debatable, maybe it always plays out the way it did), you go up 3-1.
Strahm (sure), diekman (fuck off), did nothing to solidify the kerosene can of a bullpen. What was held on to (Whitlock and maybe Houck notwithstanding), has been and will always be bunk mid 4-5 era guys.
There was hope that Paxton doesn't Twister, Sale stays off the clearance rack and guys like Wacha, Hill and Crawford (add Winckowski) would lengthen the relief when rotation help arrives.
That didn't happen. No revisionist history. The 2021 bullpen alone kept them from going farther. It's the same this year. Even worse.
After playing in 85 games, with 292 At bats, this is your conclusion? Do you think the Sox should release him? Certainly if your analysis is correct, no team would trade for him.Never play Duran again unless absolutely necessary. He is never going to be good.
Sawamura is the king of "how does he have that low an era". Mostly, he's a terrible hi-lev guy with an awful inherited runner rate. Probably isn't great to cite him.Their best reliever last season gave up the lead in the 8th. Also not really sure how you left out one of the best relievers in baseball this year, or Sawamura who doesn't appear at all to be a "mid 4-5 era guy". Or how Houck is a maybe when he's been fantastic since they put him in the pen full time.
Ehh, the bullpen clearly contributed, but there are more issues. We also had uneven seasons from basically all of our middle of the order bats. Devers has been great until the last two weeks; Bogaerts was amazing for two months but has basically disappeared; Story was the best hitter in baseball for about two weeks, but was otherwise mediocre at the plate, and then got injured (no fault of his); Kiké was terrible and then hurt; JD Martinez has completely collapsed; Verdugo was snakebit for the first two months; Dalbec started terribly and continued mediocre. And so on.That didn't happen. No revisionist history. The 2021 bullpen alone kept them from going farther. It's the same this year. Even worse.
This is where you, me and everyone is right. The team diverse in how bad they are. A different set of eyes will prioritize a different flaw (the are plentiful).Ehh, the bullpen clearly contributed, but there are more issues. We also had uneven seasons from basically all of our middle of the order bats. Devers has been great until the last two weeks; Bogaerts was amazing for two months but has basically disappeared; Story was the best hitter in baseball for about two weeks, but was otherwise mediocre at the plate, and then got injured (no fault of his); Kiké was terrible and then hurt; JD Martinez has completely collapsed; Verdugo was snakebit for the first two months; Dalbec started terribly and continued mediocre. And so on.
You are of course correct that the pen has been pretty bad, but part of blowing a ton of saves is playing in a ton of close games. Our combination of generally respectable starting pitching and a furtive offense with a penchant for disappearing for weeks at a stretch means we've asked an unreasonable amount from them.
"A guy or 2" when they have 3 guys who have all been really really good? And then a couple guys that have been mediocre and then a couple guys that have been bad or worse.Sawamura is the king of "how does he have that low an era". Mostly, he's a terrible hi-lev guy with an awful inherited runner rate. Probably isn't great to cite him.
Schreiber. Sure, he's been great. He also didn't break camp with the club, when Robles did. He's a great diamond in the rough. Bully for Bloom. Whitlock and Houck are keepers, just how good? Ehh. People may vary on their mileage for both. Do you feel great about this pen? It's not controversial to say this collection of whatever is awful. A guy or two doesn't negate the collective.
Blown saves may be imperfect as a stat, but it does show an inability to hold on to something. You want to build out the criticism to the pitching on the whole, not just relievers? That the bullpen was taxed too much at points? I'm game (make the blame about the entire team even, Bloom's construction of the entire roster fucking sucks).
It's a terrible pen. Bloom did horribly to improve a glaring hole from last year. That's my point. Last night, it was hilarious to go from, "we got it to 10-9, we need a shutdown inning" to the game being over in 15 minutes. Season in a microcosm, to me
Defense is important in CF, and his instincts are as bad as any I've ever seen.After playing in 85 games, with 292 At bats, this is your conclusion? Do you think the Sox should release him? Certainly if your analysis is correct, no team would trade for him.
It's a roughly average pen. By FIP, the pen is ranked 14th of 30 teams. By SIERA it's 17th. By ERA it's 26th. By home runs allowed per 9 innings it’s 9th. By blown saves, it's 27th, which is a very clickbaity way of saying that the team is designed with an above-average number of starters who go around 5 innings (Hill, Whitlock, Wacha, Crawford, Winckowski, Houck), which as a technical rule attributes more middle-inning lead changes to the pen.It's a terrible pen. Bloom did horribly to improve a glaring hole from last year. That's my point. Last night, it was hilarious to go from, "we got it to 10-9, we need a shutdown inning" to the game being over in 15 minutes. Season in a microcosm, to me
Departing 2021 Red Sox relievers (Andriese, Brennan, Brewer, Brice, Espinal, Gonsalves, Ottavino, Peacock, Pérez [relief only], Richards [relief only], Rios, Robles, E. Rodriguez [one inning], Weber, Workman):Bloom did horribly to improve a glaring hole from last year.
Maybe? It's way way too early to determine that.So Houck and Whitlock are relievers next year too? Who is starting?
Thanks for doing the legwork on this issue. It's interesting to see the isolated departures and acquisitions compared (acknowledging the half year issues.)It's a roughly average pen.
Sincere question: did I miss the news that Houck's injury is season ending?Not that it means much, but Houck leads the team with 8 saves. This looks like it may be only the 2nd full season since saves became an official stat in 69 that the Sox will fail to have a pitcher with double digit saves (‘72 when Bill Lee and Bobby Bolin led the team with 5 apiece).
They haven't said that, though they also haven't said when or if they expect him back, that they shut him down for a week and he'll be reevaluated next week is kind of ominous.Sincere question: did I miss the news that Houck's injury is season ending?