Will the Sox make the playoffs? And how far if so?

Yes? No?

  • No

    Votes: 277 85.2%
  • Yes- out after a play-in game

    Votes: 9 2.8%
  • Yes- out after WC around

    Votes: 36 11.1%
  • Yes-out after ALCS

    Votes: 7 2.2%
  • Yes- lose in WS

    Votes: 3 0.9%
  • Yes- shock the world!

    Votes: 7 2.2%

  • Total voters
    325

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Officially in the “stretch run”. Every win throughout a year is important of course, but IMO, time for “testing” players is over. Put out the best lineup every day. Put our your best relievers in close games the Sox are down by < 3 runs, etc…
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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FWIW, there are no one game "play-in" scenarios any more. They're going to use tiebreakers like head-to-head to advance teams to the wildcard round.
 

Coachster

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Let's get to the hot-take opinion part of this poll.

Not a chance in hell.

With Schreiber, Whitlock and Houck we have three decent bullpen pieces. That's not enough. Cora will continue to use Tilt and Fudge and Sawamura (and I'm guessing Barnes soon enough....) in medium to high leverage situations because he has to, they will implode as any mediocre bullpen piece would, and it'll cost us games.

It's remotely possible that Paxton will return in September and be able to throw 3 innings/ 75 pitches. Wow! Isn't that terrific? Then we can turn the game over to our crack bullpen and we already know the results of that.

Sale? Hahahahaha. See you in April, Chris. Gain some weight.

Our offense is inconsistent at best. We're watching JD Martinez turn into 2012 Ryan Sweeney, it seems Duran is what we were afraid he'd be, Kikè might not be much of an improvement, and one-hand Trevor Story might not be back till Paxton time. (and this is with the improvements that actual major league baseball players like Pham and Hosmer bring to the lineup.)

The hunt is over, gang. Time to piss on the fire and call in the dogs.
 

Apisith

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We sneak into the playoffs with our 4-headed bullpen monster (Schreiber, Whitlock, Sale and Houck) locking up every game from the 6th inning. We get back to ALCS but can’t get over the hump. Bloom gets a 2-year grace period from ownership and fans, and isn’t pressured into giving Xander $200m.
 

Rovin Romine

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Too soon to tell.

The Sox have a tough ending to their schedule a lot of volatility and unanswered questions - e.g., when will Trevor Story come back and how effective will he be?

On one hand, I can see them collapsing under the weight of bad decisions (Aug. 5, Royals) or players continuing to do poorly (JD, Verdugo) or more injuries.

OTOH, I can see a scenario where most of those coin flips come up positive - where Story returns, Pivetta and Eovaldi make some minor tweaks, JD gets his power stroke back, and Cora prioritizes winning games within reach.

If they make the postseason it means a number of things will have gone well for them. And if this team has that many of its key pieces working, it won't be a pushover in the post-season.
 

LesterFan

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They won't make the playoffs. 4 back in the loss column with 3 other teams ahead of them. Schedule is also not in their favor. Their final 14 games of the season are vs the division while Seattle, for example, is going to be playing their final 20 games of the season vs some of the worst teams in baseball (A's, Royals, Tigers, Angels, Rangers). Same with the White Sox/Guardians/Twins all battling it out while playing easier opponents. I don't see how the Sox overcome that given what we've seen so far and the uncertainty of pretty much every aspect of the club. There's not one area one can feel confident about regarding this team. Offense, rotation, bullpen, defense have all been inconsistent to downright bad, especially the last month and a half. Overall they're just a mediocre team and their .500 record and -21 RD reflects that.

FWIW, 538 gives them a 22% chance and FanGraphs 25%.
 

E5 Yaz

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With so many teams jockeying for position, any little difference at this point can get magnified. For instance, the Red Sox have played more games (108) than any of the six teams ahead of them in the WC standings -- Seattle is at 107, the rest at 106.

Seems minor, but just emphasizes the road they have to travel. The Orioles are three ahead of Boston in the loss column ... plus, they have two games in hand. Not that any of us expects the Orioles to be there at the end, but it's an example of what the Red Sox face.Chicago and Cleveland, which play in a weaker division, have two in hand while being ahead by two in the loss column.

Why it comes down to is that the Red Sox have to get on a serious hot streak while four of the other teams tread water or worse.

In a strange way, this reminds me in general terms of the 1967 race ... with 4 or 5 teams (the Angels hung close toward the end) battling for one postseason spot. The difference, of course, was that all those teams were playing each other down the stretch. This year, the Sox need to depend on the kindness of strangers, while handling their own business, to make it.

I'm leaning No, but wouldn't be shocked if they grabbed the final spot
 
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Archer1979

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I voted twice (once No and once Out after the Wild Card round).

Here's my mindset... for the Sox to make the playoffs, EVERYTHING has to go their way from now until the last game on October 5th and there is still a shot. The remaining games in August, 18 of the 23 are against legitimate playoff contenders (yes... I'm including Baltimore). September/October is also BRUTAL as 22 of 31 games are against the AL East (and I think we all know how that's gone so far this year).

Realistically, I'm saying that they won't make the playoffs as everyone ahead of them has an easier schedule. Optimistically, this is a different team than before the trading deadline so maybe... just maybe, the slight differences are enough to be competitive against the AL East. The biggest hope is Toronto and TB have enough separation from the pack in the Wild Card race and go less than full throttle as the season's end nears. Not counting on that at all since the Sox are division rivals and there is a level of competitiveness attached to that.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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If my math is correct (and it probably isn't!), Sox have 6 games vs TOR, 9 games vs TB, and 11 games vs BAL left. So they certainly could get in it. Of course, they could also end up in last place in the AL East. Probably more likely that they end up in last place than they end up in the playoffs but 25% seems about right to me.
 

nvalvo

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I voted kind of stupidly. I said yes, but out after the WC round.

But thinking about it a bit more, it seems like that's actually not all that likely. For the Sox to pin down a wildcard spot, they need a lot to go right — they need to get and stay healthy, and get contributions from several of the guys like Story, Hill, Wacha, Franchy, JDM, Pivetta, etc., whose injury or underperformance coincided with the recent slide. Maybe even guys like Kiké, Paxton or Sale who haven't really contributed at all this year could come back and help around the margins.

But if they get a few of those guys back healthy and effective, why are they stopping in the first round? The team that went 20-6 in June would be a pretty fearsome playoff opponent.
 

Papo The Snow Tiger

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I voted no playoffs for two reasons:

1. The Sox are amongst four team vying for that last wild card spot (they're four behind Tampa and six behind Toronto so I'm not figuring them into the calculus). Seattle has a boat load of games left with the Angles, Rangers, A's, Tigers and Royals. I'd expect the Mariners to win the lion's share of those games. I didn't do out the math, but Seattle would have to play really bad, and the Sox would have to get hot to catch them. Even if Seattle did crash that leaves the Orioles, White Sox and Guardians. The White Sox and the Guardians play each other multiple times, so by definition one of them will win each of those games, making it that much more difficult to make up ground on both of them. Plus, they get to play the Tigers and Royals too and you can expect the White Sox and Guardians to win at least some of those games. The Sox do get to play the Orioles head-to-head and could help their own cause there, but this is getting like the final weekend of the NFL season where lots of things have to fall into place for the Red Sox to make the playoffs, and I don't like the odds of all of them happening.

2. Any hope for our Sox making the playoffs depends on them playing very good baseball the rest of the way, and I just don't have much confidence in that happening. Not to pick on Verdugo, but his baserunning of JD's double last night is a prime example of the Red Sox not playing fundamentally sound baseball. Youk was absolutely correct when he pointed out that Verdugo would have been out at the plate if the throw from the outfield was handled, and that he should have been playing it halfway instead of going back to tag up. At this point the Red Sox can't afford to be making mental mistakes, and there's been enough of them this year to make me think it's not going to change over the last 54 games.
 

jon abbey

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You mean the team that won 98 games, the franchise's highest total in 26 years? I'm not seeing the comparison...
Also they were much better than this by Pythagorean run differential after the August 1 moves, clearly a top 3 team in MLB if not higher.
 

Archer1979

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Also they were much better than this by Pythagorean run differential after the August 1 moves, clearly a top 3 team in MLB if not higher.
Its probably recency bias talking, but every WS team that the Sox have had since I've followed them (1975), I felt the Sox had a chance to win every game that they played, even against the blue chip teams of the league... even Al Nipper's start in Game Four of the 1986 WS.

The season's edition doesn't have anything close to that vibe. It's more of a surprise when they beat a contender than an expectation. Maybe the post-trade deadline team will prove me wrong but these guys act like they're punching above their weight class when playing good teams.
 

Daniel_Son

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I voted yes, but getting bounced in the ALCS. The team got absolutely hammered by injuries in late June/July. Doesn't excuse their play at all, but I think this team looks a lot different once a few of the regulars come back:
  • Wacha comes back next week. Bumps Winckowski back to AAA, or maybe the pen and they bump Darwinzon back to AAA.
  • Refsnyder comes back in a week or two. Bumps Jaylin Davis back to AAA, Duran gets fewer at-bats.
  • Story comes back at the end of August. Anything is better than Yolmer Sanchez.
Add in a couple of more ambitious returns (Sale, Paxton, Hernandez), and that's a much-improved lineup that can easily grab a Wild Card. After that it's anyone's game.
 

Manramsclan

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I see no scenario where this team goes on a run like they did earlier in the season which is what is required for them to make the playoffs.

There are still serious issues with the starting rotation and bullpen, and the vaunted offense which was supposed to carry the team has not.

There is no spark, no life to how this team is playing right now. When the guy who seems to be the only one playing his ass off is a recent trade acquisition (Pham) it is not a good sign.

I hope I'm wrong, but this team killed its chances with the two horrible months of baseball that they played. At a certain point, you have to go Dennis Green on them.
 

scottyno

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I see no scenario where this team goes on a run like they did earlier in the season which is what is required for them to make the playoffs.

There are still serious issues with the starting rotation and bullpen, and the vaunted offense which was supposed to carry the team has not.

There is no spark, no life to how this team is playing right now. When the guy who seems to be the only one playing his ass off is a recent trade acquisition (Pham) it is not a good sign.

I hope I'm wrong, but this team killed its chances with the two horrible months of baseball that they played. At a certain point, you have to go Dennis Green on them.
They absolutely do not need a run like they did earlier to make the playoffs. 85 wins give them a good shot at the playoffs, that's finishing the season 31-23, which is a 93 win pace.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Look at the game they are playing now against the Royals. The Royals! The Sox are NOT making the playoffs.
I still think they actually will.
They’ve played well against Houston, Seattle, Cleveland recently. But it’ll be more because Tampa, Seattle, etc… just end up playing shitty the rest of the season. Sox back in and get bumped out. I’m thinking very similarly to the ‘05 team. Just completely outplayed.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Look at the game they are playing now against the Royals. The Royals! The Sox are NOT making the playoffs.
3-3 in the fourth is bad?

I know the Royals are not a good team overall, but even the not good teams win at least one out of every three games. They took a game in Toronto while half their regular roster was on the restricted list. Just because they're not steamrolling the Royals doesn't mean they can't play well enough, especially if they get healthy, to squeak into the playoffs.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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The Sox haven’t won an average of “one out of three” in the 41 divisional games they have played so far, though. I could see them moving past Seattle, Cleveland, Chicago - but they are going to have to eventually beat teams in their own division and surpass at least one of them. And if it somehow comes down to a tie for that last spot with another AL East team, they won’t have it.
 

Manramsclan

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They absolutely do not need a run like they did earlier to make the playoffs. 85 wins give them a good shot at the playoffs, that's finishing the season 31-23, which is a 93 win pace.
They don't need a run like they did earlier yet they need to play .575 ball over a 54 game stretch?

Their best stretch this season from May through June they went 34-20. That is three wins different than what you say they need except in the same breath you say they "absolutely do not need it."

They went on a ridiculous run over 26 games in June going 20-6 but that is still only over 26 games. They were not good enough to sustain that either before or after. The only reason why they are even in spitting distance of doing what you are saying they need to do is because of that run. That run was the only way the team was able to approach .575 ball over a 50 game stretch.

So which is it?
 

Archer1979

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They don't need a run like they did earlier yet they need to play .575 ball over a 54 game stretch?

Their best stretch this season from May through June they went 34-20. That is three wins different than what you say they need except in the same breath you say they "absolutely do not need it."

They went on a ridiculous run over 26 games in June going 20-6 but that is still only over 26 games. They were not good enough to sustain that either before or after. The only reason why they are even in spitting distance of doing what you are saying they need to do is because of that run. That run was the only way the team was able to approach .575 ball over a 50 game stretch.

So which is it?
To put the bolded in perspective against the remaining schedule, prior to last night they would have had to go .500 against all contending teams and sweep every game that they have against non-contending teams in order to go 34- 20. Anything less than a sweep of the flotsam of the league (of which they have only 13 games left) will require an off-setting win. With last night's loss, they now have to go one win over .500 against contending teams the rest of the way.

Of the remaining opponents, the best that they've done this year, is .500 against the Braves. If you want to be generous, they do still have seven games agaisnt the Orioles. But to expect the Sox to go .500 against teams left in the schedule that are above them in the standings is asking them to do something they haven't been able to do with any of them so far this year.
 

Rovin Romine

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I don't disagree with anyone taking the very reasonable (and statistically more likely) position that they won't make the playoffs.

However, when "the team" is presented as a monolithic block, in terms of whether they'll be good in future play, I have to wonder if people haven't been paying attention to the IL.

After a rough start (unprepared players, cold weather, new dead baseball, or whatever) they heated up against somewhat-easier opponents, but they did play well non-creampuff teams like: SEA, CLE, BAL, STL, TOR.

On July 4, they stood at 45-35, good for the 3rd best record in the AL (and the WC lead). After that date they went 9-20, falling to the lower middle portion of the WC scrum.

Key Injuries overlapping their second cold streak:
6/8 - now. Enrique Hernandez.​
6/9 - 7/15. Nate Eovaldi.​
6/11 - 7/15. Garrett Whitlock.​
7/5 - now. Michael Wacha.​
7/6 - now. Tyler Danish.​
7/9 - 7/26. Connor Seabold.​
7/9 - 7/30. Christian Arroyo.​
7/14 - 7/26. Josh Winkowski.​
7/15 - now. Matt Strahm.​
7/16 - now. Trevor Story.​
prior to 7/12 and after 7/19. Chris Sale.​
7/23 - 8/2. Rafael Devers.​
8/2 - now. Rob Refsnyder (likely injured well before this.)​
8/5 - now. Brayan Bello.​

All of the returns except for Arroyo (go figure), and perhaps Winkowski, have been bumpy at times.
 

BaseballJones

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The Orioles were 24-35 (.407) after play on June 10. Since then they've gone 32-16 (.667). Absolutely amazing. Currently 3 games ahead of the Red Sox in the standings.
 

BaseballJones

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Yesterday's game result prompted my "No" vote today. They're "only" 4 games out of the WC slot and definitely could make it. But I don't think they will. It's been too much of an uphill climb, and there are just too many other teams in front of them. I don't think they'll get on that massive hot streak that they'll likely need. Too many injuries. Too many guys underperforming. Not likely to happen. I really hope I'm wrong though!
 

Deweys New Stance

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Wow. I just voted "Yes out after WC Round" just to try to be a little optimistic, but BaseballJones' post probably captures my true feelings. I'm still a little surprised at the 82% No vote.
 

BigSoxFan

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This team just isn’t very good. I suspect they’ll scuffle along at the .500 mark for the rest of the season.
This is where I am. They’re not good. They’ve proven this. They’re also missing key guys. Stick a fork in this season and prepare for a big offseason.
 

E5 Yaz

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This is where I am. They’re not good. They’ve proven this. They’re also missing key guys. Stick a fork in this season and prepare for a big offseason.
Last night felt like the dagger. Cora used Whitlock to maintain a tie to give the offense a chance to grab the lead, and even that backfired. Could they get the 6th seek and take 2 of 3 from the AL Central winner? Sure ... although the way Eovaldi and Piveta have looked recently that's not a safe bet.
Even if they do, though, this looks like it will be the most fascinating offseason they've had in quite a while.
 

Traut

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If you have watched this team the last 6 weeks and believe that even with a "almost everyone makes the playoffs" format that this team is making the playoffs - I want some of what you are smoking.

They can't pitch, they can't hit, they can't play defense. I don't recall any major base running errors but that could be because they are water under the bridge of suck that is this team.

The only way any of them make the playoffs is if they buy tickets.
 

jacklamabe65

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A question for the much more informed: Is Chaim just misplaced and is a superb frame director but not GM? Is the GM part of him because Henry has handcuffed him, or he just can't cut the mustard there? I would love to hear any and all opinions.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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A question for the much more informed: Is Chaim just misplaced and is a superb frame director but not GM? Is the GM part of him because Henry has handcuffed him, or he just can't cut the mustard there? I would love to hear any and all opinions.
I will take C: None of the Above. The pitching staff and to a lesser extent the offense have been racked with injuries, and they don't yet have the farm depth to replace that many men down.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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A question for the much more informed: Is Chaim just misplaced and is a superb frame director but not GM? Is the GM part of him because Henry has handcuffed him, or he just can't cut the mustard there? I would love to hear any and all opinions.
I suspect that Bloom is under a “control spending but don’t lose the fan base”!!! type of direction from Henry so I think it handcuffs Bloom a little. I think his strength is to create a long term sustainabile farm system but the “compete every year” directive with budgetary limits is contradictory to a quick turnaround. Generally I think he’s doing the best he can but he SERIOUSLY whiffed on the RF situation.
I give him generally good grades with everything else (even 1B) to implement the direction Henry wants.
 

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A question for the much more informed: Is Chaim just misplaced and is a superb frame director but not GM? Is the GM part of him because Henry has handcuffed him, or he just can't cut the mustard there? I would love to hear any and all opinions.
FWIW, Brian O'Halloran is the GM and Chaim is the Chief Baseball Officer
 

Traut

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A question for the much more informed: Is Chaim just misplaced and is a superb frame director but not GM? Is the GM part of him because Henry has handcuffed him, or he just can't cut the mustard there? I would love to hear any and all opinions.
The trade that is likely to forever define Chaim's tenure here is the Betts trade.

Jeter Downs is hitting .202 in Worcester this summer in his age 24 season. He is not a major leaguer.

Conner Wong is 26 an posting a .729 OPS in Worcester. He is not a major leaguer.

Alex Verdugo launched his 7th bomb of the season last night. Great. He is a major leaguer but not a very good one.

Mookie Betts has won the Dodgers won World Series and may be on his way to a second. He is doing all of the Mookie Betts things this season.

Henry is absolutely at fault for Betts not being here. Bloom is absolutely at fault for trading a diamond for 3 pieces of quarry stone.
 

Philip Jeff Frye

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After a rough start (unprepared players, cold weather, new dead baseball, or whatever)...
Why were the Red Sox uniquely impacted by these things? Were the teams they were playing not similarly bothered by cold temperatures and dead baseballs? Did the Sox individually and as an organization get uniquely blindsided by the labor settlement? So many excuses for the lame performance of our boys this season...

Speaking of which -
I will take C: None of the Above. The pitching staff and to a lesser extent the offense have been racked with injuries, and they don't yet have the farm depth to replace that many men down.
It's been said here before but apparently few care to notice - when you build a pitching staff out of injury prone players, you can't be surprised when those pitchers get hurt. In fact, one could argue that the performances of Crawford and, to a lesser extent, Winckowski in filling those rotation holes has been one of the few bright spots this season.
 

Rovin Romine

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Why were the Red Sox uniquely impacted by these things? Were the teams they were playing not similarly bothered by cold temperatures and dead baseballs? Did the Sox individually and as an organization get uniquely blindsided by the labor settlement? So many excuses for the lame performance of our boys this season...
Who is making excuses? I honestly don't know.

And as to your other questions, I think they're gateway questions into perfectly valid criticisms. Which other people, myself included, brought up. . .in April and May.
 

54thMA

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The trade that is likely to forever define Chaim's tenure here is the Betts trade.

Jeter Downs is hitting .202 in Worcester this summer in his age 24 season. He is not a major leaguer.

Conner Wong is 26 an posting a .729 OPS in Worcester. He is not a major leaguer.

Alex Verdugo launched his 7th bomb of the season last night. Great. He is a major leaguer but not a very good one.

Mookie Betts has won the Dodgers won World Series and may be on his way to a second. He is doing all of the Mookie Betts things this season.

Henry is absolutely at fault for Betts not being here. Bloom is absolutely at fault for trading a diamond for 3 pieces of quarry stone.
Can't argue with any of this

That was, is and always will be a shitty trade.

The Benintendi/Cordero and Bradley/Renfroe trades aren't much better.

I have zero faith that if they cannot resign Devers they'll get much of anything back in return.

Talk about pissing away assets.
 

scottyno

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They went on a ridiculous run over 26 games in June going 20-6 but that is still only over 26 games. They were not good enough to sustain that either before or after. The only reason why they are even in spitting distance of doing what you are saying they need to do is because of that run. That run was the only way the team was able to approach .575 ball over a 50 game stretch.

So which is it?
Their best stretch as you said was the stretch in June where they went 19-4. If they have another 19-4 stretch they'd be pretty much a lock, but they certainly can make the playoffs without a run as hot as they were for June. And they couldn't sustain it because the entire pitching staff got hurt which meant instead of reverting to being a solid team which would have been fine they fell to a terrible team in July with half their roster hurt.
 

Archer1979

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Their best stretch as you said was the stretch in June where they went 19-4. If they have another 19-4 stretch they'd be pretty much a lock, but they certainly can make the playoffs without a run as hot as they were for June. And they couldn't sustain it because the entire pitching staff got hurt which meant instead of reverting to being a solid team which would have been fine they fell to a terrible team in July with half their roster hurt.
As much as I agree that they've been bitten by the injury bug since mowing through the competition in May and June, the guys that they're hoping to get back were on the roster in April and early May. Why do you think that they'd do any better in August and September than they did at the start of the season? Everything about the 2022 edition screams they are what their record says that they are.